【新唐人2011年10月11日讯】7月初传出死讯的前中共总书记江泽民，10月9号高调现身北京“纪念辛亥革命100周年大会”。这是他2009年11月出席钱学森的丧礼后，首次出席官方活动。将近两年没有在媒体上公开露过面的江泽民，看起来老朽衰弱。海内外学者指出，江泽民硬撑病体亮相，对中共十八大实质影响并不大。
北京人民大会堂9号举行纪念辛亥百年大会，现任和前任领导人包括江泽民、李鹏、李瑞环、曾庆红、尉健行、宋平、罗干等人出席，但最近刚出新书的前总理朱镕基没有露面。
江泽民由工作人员搀扶入场，他步履蹒跚逐渐与走在前面的胡锦涛拉开了距离。
入座时江有些吃力，需要一手扶着胡锦涛的椅背，才能坐下。在胡锦涛演讲时，江的气力显得有些衰弱，让现场媒体议论纷纷，法新社报导，大会期间江曾打瞌睡。
《中国事务》网站主编伍凡：“他健康状况看来是很不乐观、不好，发呆，我看他眼神是痴呆的，他硬要抱病出场，他的目地就是亮相，他亮亮相效果就各人看各人心里有数了。”
会议结束当大部分人离座时，江依然坐着，胡锦涛主动搭住江的手臂，想扶他起来，但随即有工作人员上前搀扶江站起来，江明显感到疲惫，外界认为江的健康的确堪忧。
美国哥伦比亚大学政治学博士王军涛：“非常浓的、非常重的化妆，但是还是很难掩饰他的整个脸已经变形了，而且皱纹相当可怕。他之所以在这样的健康状况、这样的形象下，他还要亮相，可能主要还是因为随着十八大临近，党内的权力斗争趋于激化，他可能担心自己的阵营稳不住了，可能要崩塌。”
今年“七一”和“十一”，江泽民缺席了中共建党90周年和建政62周年庆典。7月初，香港亚视和日本媒体先后报导江病重死亡，事后道歉误报。新华社当时只发了一个简短的英文辟谣，江也没有露面或发布近照。
与此同时，远华走私案主犯赖昌星被引渡回国，并相继发生了温州动车相撞惨剧、大连PX项目溃堤、上海地铁追尾等一系列事件，上海帮势力遭到重挫。
香港《前哨》杂志主编刘达文：“上阵子传说他死了，上海帮那些人就很震惊，所以团派的人就磨拳擦掌准备上台。他现在亮相，那肯定是有一种提升上海帮的士气那种作用。”
英国BBC引述香港中文大学兼任教授林和立的话说，江泽民现身对十八大人事布局可能造成影响。
不过，美国乔治梅森大学教授章天亮对江泽民“腐尸”形象，是否能提升上海帮士气表示质疑，他以十七大前夕，英国《泰晤士报》报导江派副总理黄菊病死的消息为例，当时国务院新闻发言人出面辟谣，但不到一个月，新华社就公布了黄菊的死讯。
章天亮：“我想这几个月来，江泽民肯定是处在一种根本就没办法见人的状态。既使这次出来，他其实这种状态，大家也看到了，已经是病骨支离了，感觉是强撑一口气。所以说这次江泽民强行出来，应该跟当时黄菊出来差不多，就是给上海帮打气。但是，我觉得他实际上已经来日无多了。”
台湾淡江大学中国大陆研究所所长张五岳表示，江泽民的现身，象征意义大于实质意义，他不认为会对十八大人事布局有实际影响。
前胡耀邦智囊阮铭：“江泽民已经这么老了，病的这样了，他有什么影响力，十八大该谁去就谁上去。江泽民这个人本来在中国就没有什么人喜欢他，他现在那么老了、病成这样了，谁听他的呀。”
赵紫阳的老部下、《炎黄春秋》社长杜导正也认为，这次江泽民、宋平、李鹏露面会有一点小小影响，都不会太大。按照中共现行体制，江泽民对中央权力运作不会有很大的实质影响。
新唐人记者周玉林、李元翰、李月采访报导。
Jiang Zemin’s Old and Weak Appearance
Former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary
Jiang Zemin, who was rumored to have died in early July,
made a high-profile appearance in Beijing at the assembly
of the 100th Anniversary of the Xihai Revolution.
This is his first attendance at official activities since
the funeral of Qian Xuesen in November 2009.
Jiang Zemin, who has not appeared in public
for nearly two years, looked old and weak.
Scholars inside and outside China point out
that Jiang struggled to appear in public,
and will have little impact on
the 18th National Congress of the CCP.
On October 9, the assembly to commemorate the
100th Anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution
was held in the Great Hall in Beijing.
Current and former CCP leaders, including Jiang Zemin,
Li Peng, Li Ruihuan, Zeng Qinghong, Yu Jianqing,
Song Ping and Luo Gan attended the event. Former Premier
Zhu Rongji, who recently published a book, did not appear.
Jiang entered the event with the physical support of others.
Although he tried to smile, he could not conceal his weakness.
His face was described as looking pale and swollen,
his eyes were dull and lacking the ability to focus.
His gestures were much slower than before, and he faltered
and gradually lagged behind Hu Jintao, who was in front.
It took Jiang some efforts to sit down.
One of his hands leaned on the back of Hu Jintao’s chair.
When Hu gave a speech, Jiang looked weak,
causing discussions among media staff.
AFP reported that Jiang was asleep during the assembly.
Wu Fan (Editor-in-chief, China Affairs): “His health
condition is very bad. He looks like he’s in a constant daze.
He is 85-years-old and has gone through several major
illnesses. It is quite normal he looks like this.
He should not appear in public in such a condition.
His purpose is to show himself. Everyone has their
own interpretation of the result of this appearance.”
When the assembly concluded and most left their seats,
Jiang was still sitting.
Hu Jintao reached out to him and wanted to help him.
Staff members came up and helped Jiang stand up.
Jiang looked tired. People think his condition is indeed bad.
Wang Juntao (Ph.D in Political Science, Colombia Univ):
“He had very strong and heavy make-up,
but it still could not cover up his deformed face.
The wrinkles looked quite terrible.
He showed up in such a state because he worries his faction
cannot hold their positions and may even collapse
with the upcoming 18th CCP Congress,
and the intensifying power struggles.”
Jiang Zemin did not appear during CCP’s 90th anniversary
on July 1 and its 62nd anniversary of governing China
on October 1. In early July, Hong Kong and Japanese media
reported that Jiang died of illness,
and later on apologized for the false news.
Xinhua News Agency only issued a brief statement
to deny the rumor in English. Jiang did not show up,
nor were any recent photos published.
Meanwhile, Yuanhua smuggling culprit, Lai Changxing,
was extradited to China.
Together with the multiple high speed train collisions
in Wenzhou, the PX dike collapse in Dailian,
the collision of the Shanghai Metro trains, and the situation
with the Shanghai Gang, provided a series of setbacks.
Liu Dawen (Editor-in-chief, HK Qiangshao magazine):
“Not long ago it was said that he died.
The Shanghai gang was discouraged and the Tuan Pai
was preparing to step up.
His appearance is to motivate the Shanghai gang.”
BBC quoted Willy Lam, professor at the Chinese University
of Hong Kong: “Jiang Zemin’s appearance
might influence the layout of the 18th CCP congress.”
However, Professor Zhang Tianliang of George Mason
University questioned whether Jiang Zemin’s “corpse" image
would help the morale of the Shanghai gang.
He took Huang Ju’s death as an example.
Before the 17th CCP Congress, the British Times reported
Vice Premier Huang Ju’s death,
which was denied by China’s State Council spokesman.
In less than a month, Xinhua announced his death.
Zhang Tianlian: “In the past several months, Jiang must have
been in a state which could not be shown up in public.
Even if he showed up this time, people can see his condition.
He is dying. So his appearance is similar
to that of Huang Ju. He intends to improve the morale of the
Shanghai gang. I do not think he will live many more days.”
President of Mainland China Studies, of Taiwan’s
Tamkang University, Zhang Wuyue,
expressed that Jiang Zemin’s appearance
is more symbolic than substantive.
He believes that it would not impact the layout
of the 18th CCP Congress.
Ruan Ming (Think tank of Hu Yaobang): “Jiang Zemin is old
and sick. What kind of impact does he have?
Whoever will be promoted during the 18th National Congress
will not be impacted by him.
Not many people in China like Jiang Zemin, and now
with him being old and sick, who will listen to him?”
Du Daozheng, subordinate of former CCP General Secretary
Zhao Ziyang, and President of Yanhuang Chunqio magazine,
also thinks the appearance of Jiang Zemin, Song Ping,
and Li Peng will have a little influence, but not too much.
According to CCP’s current system, Jiang Zemin won’t have
much impact to the operations of CCP’s central government.
NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Li Yuanhan and Li Yue
