【新唐人2011年5月20日讯】一名俄国记者在北京的一个讨论会上警告说，如果中共重犯苏共错误，在贪污腐败、镇压异议人士和民族政策等方面，步苏联后尘，中国也将解体。中国问题专家认为，中共灭亡不可逆转，让共产党解体于无形是上策。
最近在北京刚结束一场题为“多民族社会中的民主机制”的讨论会。参加会议的是俄罗斯和中国官方背景的学者。
著名记者和政论家舍甫琴柯等俄国学者在会上，批判了苏联民族政策。舍甫琴柯警告说，中国可能重复苏联解体命运。
分别在俄国官方电视台和广播电台，主持政论节目的舍甫琴柯：认为，两个原因导致苏联解体。一是苏联共产党的贪污腐败；二是迫害异议人士，把批评声音当成外国敌对势力针对苏联的阴谋。
而中国在新疆和针对达赖喇嘛的做法，同样是使用苏联式的处理手段。舍甫琴柯建议中国吸取苏联教训，否则中国的统一不会永恒。
俄罗斯独立政治评论人士帕德拉比涅克说，从俄罗斯角度看中国，中国很多方面更像苏联。他举例说，苏联当年忽视民生，经济建设牺牲民众利益，中国今天的经济增长，同样建立在牺牲工人利益的基础上。还有，在新疆和西藏少数民族政策上也像苏联，对待异议人士也与苏联完全相同。
人权律师、作家郭国汀认为，全世界九十个共产党中有四十四个夺取了政权，如今只剩下中国、越南、朝鲜、古巴和老挝。根本的原因是由于共产主义的机制本身病入膏肓：共产党国家普遍对异议人士、政治犯疯狂镇压，秘密警察泛滥，破坏法治，用暴力制造恐怖，群体屠杀，抢劫教会，清洗异己等。中共政权在这些方面确实比其他共产党国家利用的更极致，也必垮台。
郭国汀：“现在唯一的中共捞稻草，为强撑它的政权的依据是什么呢，就是所谓的经济发展，这也是为什么邓小平提出‘发展是硬道理’的这么一个原因。因为如果中国经济出现危机或一塌糊涂，中共政权肯定撑不下去。”
原北京大学教授、史学家苏明感叹：所谓的改革三十年，老百姓是受害者，共党官员们是最大的受益者。现在中国贫富的差距越来越大；政治上极度的腐败；公民的自由和权利时常受到侵害；经济成就靠造假；朝野之间矛盾尖锐、一触即发。
苏明：“上海交通大学做的题为《二零一零年中国危机管理年度报告》中指出，在二零一零全年之内，平均每五天就发生一次大型的骚乱和暴动；平均每二分半钟就发生一次群体的抗议事件。”
苏教授认为，这说明中国大陆随时都可能暴发遍及全国的全民大起义、大革命。这种现象在历史上也是重复的，都是发生在历代王朝崩溃的前夕。
中国人权活动家唐柏桥稍早前表示：法轮功学员解体中共的做法，对全世界都有启发作用。比如退党运动、传九评、神韵、网路反封锁，还有讲真相，达到了很高的境界，退党运动实际上起到了改变灵魂深处的作用。
唐柏桥认为，在这没有硝烟的战争中，起到了不战而屈人之兵的作用，让共产党解体于无形。现在的共产党四面楚歌、被动挨打，这和传九评、促退党、突破网路封锁都有直接的关系。
新唐人记者宋风、肖颜综合报导。
China to Follow SU
A Russian journalist warned at a forum in Beijing
that if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
repeated the Soviet Union’s (SU) mistakes
in corruption, repression of dissidents
and ethnic policies, China will disintegrate too.
China issue experts believe the extinction
of CCP is irreversible.
It is the best to disintegrate it with no trace.
A forum “Democracy in Multi-Ethnic Society”
has concluded in Beijing. Participants were
Russian and Chinese scholars
with official backgrounds.
Shevchenko, a well-known journalist
and commentator, and other Russian scholars,
criticized ethnic policy of SU. Shevchenko warned
that China might repeat the SU’s fate.
Shevchenko hosted political talk shows
on Russian TV and radio. He said disintegration
of SU had two reasons. First was the corruption
of the Party, the second was the persecution
of dissidents, or “conspirators” against the SU.
China used SU-style methods on Xinjiang
and the Dalai Lama. Shevchenko suggested
to learn from SU’s disintegration,
or else the unification of China will not be eternal.
Parchilinishqa, an independent political
commentator in Russia, said China is more like SU.
For example, SU ignored the people’s livelihood,
emphasizing the economic construction
at people’s expense. similar to what China does.
Policies on ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet,
and dissidents, are also the same as those of SU.
Guo Guoting, human rights lawyer and writer,
thinks that among the 90 communist parties
in the world, 44 ceased power. Now China,
Vietnam, Korea, Cuba and Laos remain.
The fundamental reason is communism itself,
which is ailing. Communists persecute dissidents,
political prisoners. “Secret police” are everywhere.
Communists destroy the rule of law, creating terror
with violence, genocide, looting churches,
“cleaning dissidents,” etc. The CCP went to extremes
in all these areas, and will fall undoubtedly.
Guo Guoting said: “Now only CCP holds power.
It is based on the so called economic development,
which is also why Deng Xiaoping proposed
‘development is the last word’. If the economy
fell in crisis or in a mess, the regime won’t survive.”
Su Ming, former professor in Beijing University
and historian, said in the “3 Decade Reform”
the people are the victims, and CCP officials
are the biggest beneficiary. In China now the gap
between rich & poor is growing, political corruption
is at an all-time high, civil liberties and rights
are often violated, and economic success
is only by fraud. There is a contradiction
between ruling and opposition parties.
Su Ming: “A report entitled ‘2010 Annual Report
of China Crisis Management’ in Shanghai,
Jiao Tong University said that in 2010,
on average, a major disturbance or riot
occurred every five days; a group protest
occurred every 2.5 minutes.”
Su said this indicates that it is possible at any time
now in China to break out a nationwide wave
of uprisings and revolution. Historically,
this happens in the eve of a dynasty’ collapse.
Tang Baiqiao, Chinese human rights activist said,
disintegration of CCP by Falun Gong practitioners,
is enlightening to the world. Quitting the CCP,
distributing the “Nine Commentaries”, Shen Yun,
breaking the Internet blockade,
has reached every corner of the globe.
Quitting the CCP purifies souls.
Tang Baiqiao said that this war with no smoke,
conquers the enemy with no fighting, leading
to CCP’s disintegration. Now the CCP is embattled,
vulnerable to attack. This is closely related
to the distribution of the “Nine Commentaries”
the campaign to “Quit the CCP”,
and the breaking of China’s Internet blockade.
NTD reporters Song Feng and Xiao Yan
