【新唐人2011年4月30日讯】中共领导人胡锦涛最近表示，当局将继续严格执行计划生育政策，继续维持低生育水准。而最新统计显示，中国社会“老龄化”和“性别比例”失调等问题越来越严重。一些学者早先发表文章，呼吁当局在十二五规划停止计划生育，胡锦涛的这一讲话，让希望结束一胎化的许多人愿望落空了。
胡锦涛在4月26号政治局会议上做出这番讲话，证实当局会继续推行独生子女政策。然而三十年来的计划生育政策的恶果已经浮现出来。
28号，国家统计局公布了第六次人口普查资料。结果显示“老龄化”加剧，中国14岁以下人口总数比10年前下降了6.3%。而60岁以上老龄人口的总数则增加了3.3%，占中国人口总数13.3%。
而国家统计局局长马建堂对外国记者承认，出生人口“性别比例”失调状况，实际上很严重。
杨支柱（原中国青年政治学院法律系副教授）：“为什么会出现‘老龄化”？那不就是孩子少了吗？年轻人比例少嘛。坚持现在的政策你不可能解决老龄化问题。只会使老龄化问题越来越严重啊。‘性别比例’也是一样的。为什么人们要性别选择呢？因为他不能多生几个来满足自己的性别偏好。那过去就没有关系嘛，我生三个女儿没有关系，我接着生就是了。”
杨支柱表示，中共的人口政策是[断子绝孙]的做法。他说，人类社会需要延续下去，养老负担不能太重。如果少生孩子，孩子赡养老人的压力变大，就难以有精力抚养后代。
国家计划生育委员会专家委员，博士生导师梁中堂很早就反对人口控制
论。1985年他在国家批准下，选择山西翼城县试点他的二胎晚育理论。二十多年的实践证明，放松计划生育政策，人口数量反而低于全国水准，而且各项人口指标优于全国。
杨支柱认为，计划生育已经成为意识形态和利益的结合体。一方面，计划生育政策是由毛泽东等中共元老提出来，现任中共领导人胡锦涛墨守成规，不敢越雷池半步。另一方面，中共很多官员是依靠计划生育这个政绩爬上来的。因此极力维护计划生育政策。
杨支柱：“不仅是他们（计生委）是抢劫集团，那包括很多大员们，省长书记们，政治局委员恐怕有不少是属于这个既得利益集团的。为什么呢？因为我们过去有一个计划生育一票否决制。谁要是计生指标实现不了的话，你就要被罢官。因为这些人过去尤其是上世纪八九十年代搞得很厉害的时候，他们都可以说是血债累累。”
杨支柱原来在中国青年政治学院担任法律系副教授。去年由于生下第二胎女儿，而被单位开除。“超生副教授”的选择令很多人大跌眼镜。但他坦然表示，知识份子也有保护后代的本能。
那么，“计划生育政策”将给未来中国社会带来什么问题？
“性别失调”使得20%的男子找不到配偶，将可能催生跨国新娘和人口贩卖现象。而“人口老龄化”将带来年轻劳工的缺乏。今年沿海和内地的工厂已经出现“用工荒”。
另外，“人口老龄化”也意味着年轻人要负担越来越多的老年人，而中国的社会福利保障体系仍然非常薄弱。
新唐人记者秦雪、王明宇采访报导。
Bitter fruits of one-child policy
CCP’s (Chinese Communist Party) leader Hu Jintao
recently declared, that the one-child policy will
continue to be rigidly enforced, to keep
a low birth rate.
But according to recent statistics, the issues of
“aging” and “gender ratio” imbalance are worsening.
Some scholars had published articles to call
on the authorities to stop the one-child policy
in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan.
But Hu’s speech chilled many people’s hope.
Hu’s speech at a meeting of the Political Bureau on
April 26th, confirmed that the authorities will carry on
the one-child policy.
But after enforcing this policy for 30 years,
now its bitter fruits have risen.
13.3%。
On April 28th, the State Statistics Bureau released
the results of the 6th population census, which
showed an increasing “aging” problem.
Compared with the situation of 10 years ago,
the number of people aged below 14 dropped by 6.3%
while people aged above 60 increased by 3.3%
and accounts for 13.3% of the national total.
Ma Jiantang, Director of National Bureau
of Statistics, admitted the severe situation of
“gender ratio” imbalance of newborns,
when facing foreign journalists.
Yang Zhizhu (former associate professor at China
Youth University for Political Sciences) said: “Why is
there an ‘aging’ issue?
That’s because of fewer newborns and teenagers.
By carrying on the current policy, the authorities can
never solve the issue of ‘aging’ but only make it worse.
And same for the ‘gender ratio’ issue.
Why do people choose genders of newborns?
That’s because their gender preferences
could not be satisfied by having more children.
Previously it is not a problem because people could
have more children if they had 3 daughters.”
Yang said that CCP’s policy is to make people
“sonless”.
The load to support the old shouldn’t be too heavy
in order to maintain human societies.
If people have fewer kids, their kids’ burden
to maintain them becomes heavier and
they will have less energy to raise their own children.
Liang Zhongtang, a member of the expert committee
of China’s birth control, has long opposed the
birth control. Since 1985, approved by the state, he chose
Yicheng County in Shanxi Province, to test his
theory of two-children and late childbirth.
20 years’ practice has proved that by loosening
the birth control, the population becomes smaller
than national average while all demographic indices
are better than national averages.
Yang Zhizhu believes that birth control policy has
become a combination of ideology and interests.
On the one hand, the policy was put forward by
CCP’s patriarchs like Mao Zedong and CCP’s
current leader Hu Jintao dares not go against it.
On the other hand, many of CCP’s officials get
promoted by enforcing birth control policy actively,
therefore they strongly defend it.
Yang Zhizhu said: “The Birth Control Commission is
a robbering gang, and many governors,
party secretaries and members of the Political Bureau
also belong to this vested interest group. Why?
There was a one-vote-down system about birth control,
meaning an official was dismissed if he didn’t fulfill
the birth control program.
These people previously vigorously enforced
birth control policy especially in the 80s and 90s and
owe many bloody debts.”
Yang Zhizhu was an associate professor of law at
China Youth University for Political Sciences.
Last year, he was dismissed because he had
a second kid, a daughter.
His choice surprised many people.
But he said that intellectuals also have the instinct
of protecting their offsprings.
Then what problems will the “birth control policy”
bring to China’s society?
The “Gender ratio imbalance” has made 20% of the
total male population unable to find spouses and
could result in phenomena like foreign wives and
human trafficking.
The “aging” issue will result in the depletion of
young labors.
There is already a labor shortage in many coastal
and inland industries.
Also, the “aging” issue means young people are
supporting more old people, but
China’s social welfare is still very weak.
NTD reporters Qin Xue and Wang Mingyu
