【新唐人2011年4月14日讯】国际货币基金组织(IMF)4月11号发布《全球经济展望》报告警告：中国可能正在形成信贷和资产泡沫，最终或将破裂。经济学家们指出，中国通货膨胀正进入危险的领域，政府的宏观调控面临两难，目前中国经济正在被推向“滞胀”。
国际货币基金组织的报告就中国经济面临的中期风险，发出异常严厉的警告。报告说：中国的信贷和资产价格涨势“令人担忧”。报告对中国消费者价格涨势提出警告，预计中国今年通货膨胀率可能达到5%，超过政府4%的目标。经济学家们普遍认为，中国通货膨胀的根本原因是货币发行量过多及信贷过量。
北京天则经济研究所理事长茅于轼说：“通胀就是前几年投资太多，而且投到没有效益的项目上赔钱，没有提供更多的产品。所以要改善我们的投资规则，让民间投资要启动起来，现在投资都是政府在投，这个是通胀造成的原因。”
据《华尔街日报》报导，哥伦比亚大学商学院教授贝姆（David Beim的一篇重要的新论文《中国增长的未来》（The Future of Chinese Growth）指出，中国是在利用大量超额贷款保持增长引擎的运转，中国经济恐怕要踩刹车。
据贝姆研究，中国的固定资本形成总额（Gross fixed capital formation）从1980年占GDP的29%上升至2010年的42%，大多数投入的资金来自国有商业银行给国有企业的贷款，这也是导致低效和腐败的原因。而且，随着中共政府在本世纪初为中国的银行清理账本，价值数千亿美元的坏账奇迹般地消失了。
与此同时，中国通胀目前接近5%。温家宝在3月份的新闻发布会上说，通货膨胀就像是一只老虎，如果放出来就很难再关进去。
《新世纪周刊》11号发表经济学家谢国忠的文章指出，中国的通货膨胀正在进入危险的领域。有迹象表明，通胀的恐慌正在蔓延。囤积现象已不时可见。当囤积成为普遍现象时，就很可能爆发社会危机。
至今，北京当局已连续出台了许多项调控政策，但是，物价和房价仍在不断飞涨。 谢国忠表示，行政权力无法治愈通胀，政府迫使企业不涨价只能暂时起作用。当投入成本每年以20%到30%的速度增长时，不提价，就没有企业能生存。
4月5号，中国央行在半年内第4次加息0.25个百分点。谢国忠认为，这仍然远不足以“消除人们对于政府制造通胀的恐惧”。 他警告，资本效率的下降和持续的负实际利率导致“滞胀”。严重的“滞胀”总是会导致货币贬值，并一定会触发金融危机。滞胀期间将不可避免地发生社会动荡。
北京大学经济学院教授夏业良说：“因为中国人口这么多，经济如果萧条了，失业人口增大的话，社会压力就特别大。而且官方其实更害怕的是失业压力加大，因为那个时候，可能社会动荡不安。”
专家学者们警告，在日趋严峻的国内国际环境下，目前中国的增长模式正在将经济推向“滞胀”，最终可能导致泡沫破裂和金融危机，由此引发的社会动荡，或使中国的政治体制无法实现和平转型，同时加大进行根本的政治改革和经济改革的难度。
新唐人记者李元翰、柏妮综合报导。
IMF Warns China of Credit and Asset Bubbles
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says
in its annual World Economic Outlook report
that China’s economy faces increasing pressure
from credit and asset bubbles. Economists cautioned
the danger of inflation in China
leading the country’s economy to stagflation.
The IMF warned China of the risks in its economy:
“There are mounting concerns about the potential
for steep corrections in property prices."
It estimated the inflation rate in China would
reach 5%, higher than the government estimated 4%.
Economists believe such inflation is caused by
excessive credit and currency expansion.
Mao Yushi, president of Unirule Institute
of Economics: “Inflation means too much investments
were made in unprofitable projects, and didn’t yield
more products. So we need to improve our investment
patterns, and encourage private investments.
Now most investments are made by the government,
which is the cause of the inflation.
Prof. Davice Beim at Columbia Business School wrote
in his recent article “The Future of Chinese Growth”
that China is relying on loan expansion to protect
the growth rate of the economy, and it has to stop.
China’s gross fixed capital formation has increased
steadily from 29% to 42% of GDP from 1980 to 2010.
Most investments are made by state-owned banks
lending to state-owned companies, which also causes
inefficiency and corruption, according to Beim.
At the turn of the century, hundreds of billions
of dollars in bad debt have disappeared,
as China tried to clean up its banks.
The inflation rate in China is approaching 5%.
Wen Jiabao compared inflation to a tiger –
once it’s out, it’s hard to lock it back in.
Economist Xie Guozhong wrote in Century Weekly
that China’s inflation has become very dangerous.
Panic is spreading and people have started to hoard.
Once it becomes common, a social crisis will erupt.
Despite various government control measures
prices in China are still rising drastically.
Xie believes the effects of administrative measures
are only temporary, and cannot stop inflation.
When investment costs increase 20-30% each year,
no company can survive without raising prices.
On April 5, China’s Central Bank increased interest
rates by 0.25%, the fourth time in 6 months,
which is still far from eliminating
the fear of inflation, according to Xie Guozhong.
Xie warns that capital inefficiency and
negative real interest rate will cause stagflation,
which in turn will lead to currency depreciation,
and eventually a financial and social crisis.
Prof. Xia Yeliang from Beijing University:
“If the economy slows down and unemployment rises,
because of the large population,
the Chinese society will face tremendous pressure,
which may cause unrest and instability.”
Experts warn that under the current circumstances,
China’s growth pattern will lead to stagflation
in economy, and possibly a financial crisis.
Social movements caused by such crisis
may hinder the process of political
and economical reforms in China.
NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Bo Ni
