【新唐人2014年12月06日訊】最近一段時間以來，大陸股市不斷上漲，成交量也暴增，股市達到了2008年股市大跌之前的那種狂熱程度。而上一週超過22億美元的國外資本撤出中國股市，也沒有絲毫觸動中國股市。不少專家質疑，中國股市為何在中國經濟不佳時，反其道而行之？我們一起來聽聽專家的分析。
12月4號大陸滬指暴漲，再創43月新高，盤中站上2900點關口上漲120點，創兩年最大單日漲幅。而深成指數大漲近400點，兩市成交額突破9000億元，石化雙雄罕見漲停。
美國《華爾街日報》觀察發現，這次牛市行情，大部份漲幅是在過去一個月取得。佔中國股市交易額80%左右的散戶投資者，也表現出對股市興趣重燃的態度。萬得資訊(WIND INFO)的數據顯示，上週股票交易新開賬戶達到370,071個。
總部位於深圳的某股份制銀行理財經理透露，近期申請信用貸款的客戶激增，雖然貸款理由寫的是「消費」，但據其跟蹤，很多貸款資金都投向了股市。
上海某大型券商營業部總經理告訴《上海證券報》記者，近幾天，溫州炒房團將幾個億的資金騰挪進了股市。而這些炒房團根本不懂估值，也不看邏輯，進場就買，資金直奔券商掃貨。
北京師範大學MBA導師段紹譯：「中國的老百姓缺少投資機會，央行降息銀行利息更低，老百姓更願意拿點錢去冒險。」
大陸投資顧問鄧先生：「從2400點到2800點這一段，基本都是大盤藍籌在漲，國企和央企是主體，大量的資金，來歷不明的資金都湧進來，他們從哪裏來的錢呢，中國不只是實體經濟很缺錢，地方政府、央企，銀行也很缺錢，如果大家都缺錢的情況下，股市瘋狂上漲，只能說明一條理由，有人想在這裏面出貨。」
《華爾街日報》的評論說，中國股市近期的漲勢，令人回憶起2008年股市大跌之前出現過的那種狂熱，引發風險憂慮。
2007年10月16號，上證綜合指數觸及6124點，創下歷史最高記錄，隨後出現大幅下跌，到2008年10月28號跌到了1664點。絕大部分散戶被套牢。
大陸媒體《匯時訊》也評論說，國家戰略資金進場猶如一劑興奮劑，整個股市都沸騰了。讓股市起來把資金在市場聚攏，再通過市場的方式，配置到股市各個風口上，是四兩撥千斤的功效。這種方式，最不需要揹負政治成本，而戰略性牛市，要的就是在泡沫中解決問題。
評論還指出，如果這一波擁抱泡沫的過程經濟轉型卡殼，那可是比2008年更可怕的經濟危機。
不過，目前中共好像還嫌股市不夠火爆。據報導，中共銀監會加急下發《商業銀行理財業務監督管理辦法（徵求意見稿）》，允許以理財產品的名義獨立開立證券賬戶，鼓勵理財產品直接投資債券、股票。
《新浪財經》發現，股市連續大漲已經令銀行理財資金，坐立難安急於進場。一些原本選擇理財產品的資金正在進入股市。
鄧先生：「這裏面肯定有一個天大的陰謀，我們的大盤遠遠脫離了我們基層面，如果我們的經濟基本面是沙灘的話，股市正在給我們描繪一個海市蜃樓，國家經濟面的指導，方針和文件對股市形成了比較大的引導。暴風雨將要來臨的時候，總是比較美好的景象吧。」
目前機構、散戶、私募，每一個股市參與者都不願再踏空。某大型機構投資經理也表示，現在已不看基本面了，只研究「大趨勢」，風往哪兒吹就往哪兒跑。等風向變了再全倉殺出走也不遲。
不過，外國資本卻不像中國股民一樣瘋狂。根據澳新銀行(ANZ)編製的圖表，上週僅僅從中國股權基金撤出的外國資金超過22億美元，是三年中規模最大的一次。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/蕭宇
A-Shares Skyrocket, The Hot Stock Market Attracts
Worries About Risk.
The Mainland Chinese stock market has continued to rise,
with volumes soaring, reaching extreme levels.
This is similar to conditions before the
stock market crash in 2008.
Over $2.2 billion foreign capital was withdrawn from
China’s stock market last week.
It didn’t make any impact on the stock market.
Many experts question why China’s stock market is going
in the opposite direction when the Chinese economy is poor.
Let’s listen to the expert analysis.
On Dec. 4, the Shanghai Composite Index soared,
reaching the highest record in 43 months.
Intraday highs of 2900, increasing 120 points makes it
the biggest one-day gain in two years.
The Shenzhen Component Index rose nearly 400 points.
The turnover of the two indexes exceeded 900 billion yuan.
China Petroleum and China Petrochemical stocks
rarely reached the daily limit.
The Wall Street Journal says most of the gains during
this bull market were made in the past month.
Retail investors that cover 80% of the turnover of China’s
stock market also regained interest in the stock market.
The Wind Info data shows that 370,071 new stock trading
accounts were opened last week.
A financial manager at a joint-stock bank in Shenzhen City
revealed that applications for credit loans recently surged.
Although many customers used consumption as loan reason,
he found out that many invested the money in stock market.
The general manager of a brokerage business department
in Shanghai told Shanghai Securities News that a real estate
group in Wenzhou City invested hundreds of millions of
capital in stock market in recent days.
The real estate group didn’t understand the valuation, and
it wasn’t logical. It directly invested in brokerage, he said.
Duan Shaoyi, MBA instructor at Beijing Normal University,
“Chinese common people lack investment opportunities.
The central bank cut interest rates, and bank interests are
even lower.
Ordinary people would rather take risks to invest money.”
Mr. Deng, investment consultant in mainland China, “From
2400 to 2800 points, it was the cap blue chip that was rising.
The state-owned enterprises and central enterprises were
the main body, and huge funds of unknown origin came in.
Where did they get the money?
Not only the real economy lacks money in China, local
government, central enterprise, and banks also lack money.
If everyone lacks money, while the stock market
is skyrocketing, there’s only one reason.
That someone wants to get rid of stocks through this.”
The Wall Street Journal commentary says the skyrocketing
of Chinese stock market recently reminds people of the
fanaticism in 2008 before the stock market crash. It raises
worries about risks.
On Oct. 16, 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index reached
6124, the highest record in history. It then fell sharply.
By Oct. 28, 2008, the index fell to 1664. The vast majority
of individual investors were stuck.
Chinese media Fx567.com also commented that national
strategic funding approach is like a stimulant.
This makes the entire stock market boiling. It raises the stock
market to gather capitals in the market.
It then configures capitals to each outlet of the stock market
through the market, which is skillfully deflected.
Such a method doesn’t bear on the surface.
The commentary also says if the economic transformation
stuck during the foam period, there would be an even worse
economic crisis than the one in 2008.
But, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seems to want a
hotter stock market.
Chinese media says China Banking Regulatory Commission
urgently issued a draft of Commercial Bank Financial Services
Supervision and Administration, allowing banks to open
independent securities account in name of financial products.
The draft encourages customers to invest
financial products in bonds and stocks.
Sina Finance said the continuous rise in stock market has
made bank financial funds eager to get into the stock market.
Some capital originally for financial products is
getting into the stock market now.
Mr. Deng, “There must be a big conspiracy. The market is
far away from the grassroot.
If the economic market is a beach, the stock market
is creating a mirage.
The state economic instruction, policy, and documents
largely influenced the stock market.
The scenery is always pretty before the storm comes.”
Institutions, retail, private equity, and every investor in the
stock market doesn’t want to lose again.
An investment manager of a large institution indicated that
they only care about the “major trend” now.
They go wherever the trend goes. He said it won’t be
too late to clear the stock when the trend changes.
However, foreign capital investors are not as
crazy as Chinese investors.
According to ANZ data, over $2.2 billion of foreign capital
was withdrawn from the China Equity Fund last week.
That makes it the biggest withdrawal in three years.
Interview & Edit/ LiuHui Post-Production/XiaoYu
