【新唐人2014年06月20日訊】中國的「鬼城」鱗次櫛比、存量巨大。有數據顯示，今年，頭五個月的房價下跌10.2%，令恐慌的房地產開發商紛紛拋出「零首付」房屋。中國可能正走近一個「明斯基時刻」，犯下跟美國同樣的「次貸」錯誤，中國「硬著陸」將一觸即發。專家指出，中國的信貸、資產泡沫的破滅，實際上已經開始了。
中共國家統計局13號說，大陸的房屋銷售額從去年5月的5030億元，減少到今年5月的4461億元。今年頭五個月的銷售額同比下降10.2%。
據大陸《搜房網》資料顯示，自2012年6月份以來，今年房價在5月份首次出現環比下降。今年頭五個月，新屋開工同比下降19%。
而大陸「西南財經大學」教授，中國家庭財務調查研究中心主任李甘(Gan Li)向媒體透露，去年城市地區的房屋空置率高達22.4%。
為應對空屋過剩和價格下滑，許多房地產開發商提供免費裝修、或免費停車位等促銷方式，以吸引買家。開發商還允許買家有更長時間來支付30%的首付，甚至提供「零首付」。
據美國《大紀元》新聞網編譯，《彭博社》16號評論說，隨著中國漠視前車之鑑，犯下跟美國同樣的次貸錯誤，中國在走向一個硬著陸——並且會非常突然的發生。
美國「南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田表示，中國房地產開發商推出「零首付」，是為了挽救現在瀕臨危機的房地產市場。但實際上更助長了房地產市場的泡沫，「硬著陸」只是個時間問題。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「中國零首付現象和美國次貸危機之前推行的一些房屋政策、住房政策很相像，把首付的要求降得非常低，（但）不管是當年美國的次貸危機，還是中國現在房地產的危機，作為這種信貸的泡沫、資產的泡沫，它一定都會有一個泡沫破滅的時候。」
媒體報導，中國的公共部門、和消費者及企業債務之總和，與國內生產總值(GDP)之比，已達到230%，而在2008年，這一數據為125%。這中間，地方債與影子銀行規模的急速擴大，已經成為中國經濟的最大風險。
去年4月，中共前財政部長項懷誠透露，中國地方政府可能積纍了超過20萬億人民幣的債務。
日本「野村證券」經濟學家表示，中國超過50%的地方政府融資平臺，已經不足以償還利息或本金，而這正是「明斯基旁氏信貸」的特徵。
越來越多的經濟學家也在警告，中國可能在走近一個「明斯基時刻」。
「明斯基時刻」，得名於美國經濟學家海曼•明斯基。明斯基認為，隨著市場上投機性信貸和旁氏信貸的增加，信貸環境惡化，金融系統出於避險考慮收緊信貸，當經濟體系提供的貸款已經不足以支撐流動性需求時，就會出現「明斯基時刻」。「明斯基時刻」是市場繁榮與衰退的轉折點。
中國社科院金融研究所研究員易憲容，日前向媒體表示，美國2008年次貸危機泡沫破滅，就是一個資產價格泡沫吹大到最後崩潰的「明斯基時刻」。
謝田表示，「明斯基時刻」的到來，可以說是中國房地產泡沫破滅的又一種說法。
謝田：「但一旦發生明斯基時刻或地產泡沫破滅，我們會看到，房地產價格全面性大幅度的下滑，然後可能會拖纍很多開發商，讓他們破產，然後會拖纍很多銀行，那些銀行因為這些壞帳的突然增加，也會出現巨大的危機。」
美國金融服務公司「摩根士丹利」（大摩）日前發表報告指出，中國當前大批債務即將到期，借款人資金吃緊，經濟增長放緩，加之貨幣政策收緊，市場利率的攀升，投機信貸和旁氏信貸將更加猖獗，所有這些都預示著中國的「明斯基時刻」已經越來越近。
「大摩」認為，「明斯基時刻」之後，中國經濟將嚴重放緩到5%，並導致全球性的企業盈利衰退。
謝田表示，在中國，這個資產泡沫的破滅，實際上現在已經開始了。
採訪編輯/易如 後製/舒燦
Zero Down Payments Demonstrate a Chinese Real
Estate Sub-Prime Crisis?
Rows and rows of empty houses exist, creating
the term :Ghoust Town in China today”.
Data collected, shows the first five months of this year,
house prices have fallen by 10 percent.
Creating a panic amidst real estate developers,
calling this a “zero down payment" state.
Now China may be approaching a “Minsky Moment"
(a sudden major collapse of asset values),
when the United States committed the “subprime" error,
and China’s economy of ‘hard landings’ will be triggered.
Experts have in fact already declared, the bubble has
has already started to burst.
On June 13, National Bureau of Statistics of Chinese
Communist Party (CCP),
claimed housing sales in mainland China, reached 503 billion
yuan (US$ 80 billion) in May of last year,
yet have decreased to 446.1 billion yuan in May of this year.
During the first five months of this year, sales have
fallen by 10.2 percent.
According to Mainland “SouFun" Data ( real estate internet portal),
since June 2012, the statistical monthly chain ratio, relative
to property prices, had remained stable,
yet in May of this year, were reduced for the first time.
During the first five months of this year,
the newly constructed properties were reduced by 19%.
Gan Li is Professor of “Southwestern University
of Finance and Economics" in Mainland China,
also Director of Survey Research Centre
of Chinese Family Finances.
Recently Li revealed to the media that in last year,
the housing vacancy rate went up to 22.4 percent
in urban areas.
In response to overcapacity, vacancy
and the falling of house prices,
many real estate developers tried
to attract buyers by offering free decoration,
or free parking spaces and other such promotions.
Developers also allow buyers to pay a 30 percent down payment
during a longer period and even provide a “zero down payment".
According to the U.S. " Epoch Times" news network,
(media) Bloomberg’s criticism on June 16, claimed China is making
the same mistakes US made concerning the Subprime,
which was a mortgage crisis of a nationwide banking emergency,
sparking the recession of 2008,
and that China is heading in the same direction, with a downfall
likely to happen very soon.
Professor Frank Xie from University of South Carolina
Aiken in the US,
said Chinese real estate developers launching of the
“zero down payment" scheme,
is now on the verge of crisis and is in real need to save
the real estate market.
The truth is, this is fuelling the real estate market bubble,
a “hard landing" is only a matter of time.
Professor Frank Xie Tian: “The phenomenon we see now of zero
down payment emerging within the China property market,
is very similar to some housing policies which the United States
executed before the subprime crisis,
the down payment requirements have dropped very low.
But, regardless of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis,
or the Chinese real estate crisis,
as with the asset bubble or the credit bubble,
they all certainly have one day before they burst. “
Media reports state, the ratio of China’s total debts among public
sector, consumers and other companies,
Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) has reached
230 percent, while in 2008 this figure was 125 percent.
During this period, the rapidly expanding debts of local
governments and the expanded shadow banks,
have become the biggest risk to the economy.
Last April, the CCP’s former Finance Minister
Xiang Huaicheng,
revealed that local governments may have accumulated
debts of more than 20 trillion RMB (US$ 3 trillion).
Japan’s “Nomura Securities" economist say, more than
50 percent of Chinese local governmental
financing platforms,
have been insufficient in giving returns in interest, which
is a typical “Minsky Ponzi credit and finance" feature.
More and more economists are warning that China may
be approaching a “Minsky Moment."
“Minsky Moment" originated from the American economist
Hyman Minsky,
who argued that, with the increase of speculative credit market
and Pond’s credit,
the credit environment deteriorates, and the financial system
for hedging, start to tighten up on credit.
When the loan provided by the economy has been
insufficient to support the liquidity needs,
then the “Minsky Moment" will appear.
“Minsky Moment" is a turning point
in the market boom and bust.
Yi Xianrong is a researcher for the Institute of Finance
and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Recently told media, the bubble burst of the U.S.
subprime crisis in 2008,
was due to blowing the asset price bubble so large
that it finally collapsed, giving us a “Minsky Moment."
Dr Xie Tian said, the arrival of the “Minsky Moment,"
could be considered another way of saying,
the Chinese real estate bubble has burst.
Dr Frank Xie: “Once Minsky Moment arrives
or the real estate bubble burst occurs,
we will see an overall significant decline
in real estate prices,
which will then impact a lot of developers and trigger
their bankruptcy.
This will also hit many banks, creating a huge crisis created
by a sudden increase in bad loans.”
U.S. financial services company “Morgan Stanley," recently
issued a report,
claiming China’s current large debts have come mainly due to
the borrowers money tightening up, and
economic growth slowing down.
monetary policy is tightening, market interest rates are rising,
and speculative credit and Pond’s credit will become
more rampant.
All of these indicate, the signs are there, China’s
“Minsky Moment" is getting nearer.
“Morgan Stanley" believes the growth of China’s economy
will slow down to 5 percent after “Minsky Moment",
which will lead to a global recession in corporate earnings.
Professor Frank Tian Xie says that in China,
the bursting of the asset bubble, in fact, has now begun.
Interview & Edit/Yiru Post-Production/Shucan
