【新唐人2012年10月23日訊】1500名中國遊客乘坐大型郵輪「哥斯達維多利亞」號，20號下午抵達了日本熊本縣的八代港，這是日本將釣魚島「國有化」後，中國大陸赴日旅遊的最大規模旅行團。評論認爲，這是「十八大」即將召開前，中日緩和的信號，同時體現美國支持習近平接班的態度。
由於釣魚島紛爭，中日關係跌到四十年來的谷底，許多大陸旅行公司暫停或取消了日本遊的行程，因此，1500名中國遊客參加日本熊本縣的煙火大會，被認爲是中日緩和的信號。
北京時政觀察人士華頗：「首先從國內來講，中國和日本領導人都要換屆，所以呢，釣魚島問題不可能導致中日關係破裂。中日雙方領導層第一會表明強硬的立場，第二它會採取一些措施，逐步使事態得以平息，使雙方的顔面都可以得到保全。」
華頗指出，除了國內因素在國際上也有因素促使釣魚島問題降溫。
華頗：「主要來講，起關鍵作用的美國，也不願意中日關係因爲釣魚島而一發不可收拾，所以美國在這方面，予以了降溫。」
日本和美國原計劃從11月5號—16號在沖繩縣的無人島舉行聯合「奪島軍事演習」，但日本《沖繩時報》20號說，兩國政府正考慮取消這次軍演。
由於中共「十八大」召開時間正好在美日軍演預定期間，取消的消息對於將在「十八大」接班的習近平來説，無疑可以鬆一口氣，因此也被認爲是美國政府對於習近平接班做出的表態。
而《大紀元》新聞網9月報導，美國已經與習近平達成默契，支持他安全接班。報導說，美國政府一直對「周永康勢力」反感，不願意看到周永康勢力主掌中國。美國看到釣魚島問題與中共權力交接之間的關聯，因此在釣魚島問題上不會支持日本，美國的態度使得釣魚島問題會很快平復下來。
事實上，美國政府的這一態度在王立軍叛逃時就有表露。當時正好是習近平訪美期間，美國官員通過媒體透露，王立軍向美國大使館提供的材料中，包括薄熙來和周永康密謀計劃整垮習近平，不讓他順利接班等內容。被外界形容是美國有意送給習近平的「一份大禮」。
在這樣的國內和國際氛圍下，10月11號，中共外交部亞洲司司長羅照輝應邀訪問日本，會晤日本外務省官員，雙方同意儘快舉行副外長級會談，尋求打破釣魚臺爭議的僵局。官方動作9天後，1500人的中國旅行團抵達熊本，受到當地的熱情歡迎，被視作民間尋求關係緩和的一步。
時事評論員汪北稷：「日本在這個事情上也確實做出了理性的一步，對中國人民施展它作爲新興的一個民主國家的一種姿態。區分了中共的統治階層，和中國人民之間的不同。它沒有把中國統治階級所掀起來的反日情緒，看作是中國人民的普遍情緒。」
時事評論員汪北稷認爲，釣魚島問題的解決將是建立在理性的協商之上。
汪北稷：「中共內部想把釣魚島糾紛，一些別的歷史問題擴大化和複雜化的勢力，他們詭計還是不能實現的。隨著中共的解體，民主政治將來就要到來了，中日兩國對歷史問題的看法、對領土問題的看法、包括對釣魚島問題的看法，會更加趨於尊重兩國的民意，尊重真正的歷史。」
據了解，這批中國遊客除了觀賞20號在八代市舉行的全日本煙火競技大賽，還參觀了阿蘇山、熊本城等著名的景點，21號離開熊本，返航上海。
採訪/劉惠 編輯/尚燕 後製/君卓
Strained Relations Easing: 1,500 Chinese Tourists Visit Japan
On October 20, a large cruise ship with 1,500 Chinese
tourists reached Yatsushiro in Kumamoto, Japan.
This was China’s largest group of tourists to visit Japan
since the country “nationalized” the Diaoyu Islands.
Commentators view it as a sign of Sino-Japanese
relations thawing, as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 18th Congress draws nearer.
Analysts also say that this shows the U.S.
is backing Xi Jinping to take the leadership.
The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands made Sino-Japanese
relations reach it’s lowest point in over 40 years.
Many Chinese travel agencies suspended
or canceled travel itineraries for Japan.
1,500 Chinese tourists traveled to Japan to view
the annual fireworks display hosted in Kumamoto.
This was deemed a sign of détente;
the easing of strained relations.
Hua Po, political observer in Beijing: “Both
countries currently face a leadership transition.
So, the Diaoyu Islands issue is unlikely
to destroy Sino-Japanese relations.
Initially, both sides took tough stances.
Next, they’ll take some measures to gradually
calm the situation, in order to save face.”
Hua Po adds that besides domestic factors, the international
community contributed to cooling the Diaoyu Islands issue.
Hua Po: “The U.S. played a key role on this.
It’s unwilling to see Sino-Japanese relations
get out of control because of the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, and helped cool the conflict.”
A planned joint Japan-U.S. military drill will
take place between November 5 and 16 in Okinawa.
On October 20, the Okinawa Times reported
that both countries considered canceling the drill.
The CCP 18th Congress falls on the date
of the Japan-U.S. joint security drill.
News of a cancellation would relieve
Xi Jinping, the incoming CCP leader.
The news would also be viewed as a positive
U.S. stance on Xi Jinping taking power.
In September, the Epoch Times reported that
the U.S. had reached a verbal agreement with Xi Jinping to support his succession.
The report revealed that the U.S. government
has long disliked “the Zhou Yongkang forces”.
The U.S. has seen the relevance of the Diaoyu Islands
dispute to the power transition of the CCP.
Thus, it would not support Japan on the issue.
The Epoch Times predicted that this
U.S. attitude would soon quell the clash.
In fact, when Xi Jinping visited the U.S., after Wang Lijun
had fled to the U.S. consulate, the U.S. showed its stance.
Through the media, U.S. officials revealed information
about confidential evidence provided by Wang Lijun.
This included a military coup plot involving Bo Xilai and
Zhou Yongkang, to block Xi Jinping’s smooth succession.
The U.S. move was considered
“a great gift" given to Xi Jinping.
On October 11, Luo Zhaohui, Asian Affairs Director
of the CCP Foreign Ministry, was invited to visit Japan.
Both sides agreed to hold ministerial level talks to break
the impasse caused by the Diaoyu Islands dispute.
Nine days later, a tour group of 1,500 Chinese arrived
in Japan’s Kumamoto, and received a warm welcome.
The issue was viewed as a non-official step
to seek the easing of the strained relationship.
Critic Wang Beiji: “On this issue, Japan presented rationale,
and showed a stance as being an emerging democracy.
It distinguished the CCP ruling
echelon from the Chinese people.
It didn’t treat the anti-Japanese sentiment stirred up
by the CCP rulers as a general public mood in China.”
Wang Beiji forecasts that the Diaoyu Islands
dispute will be settled through rational negotiation.
Wang Beiji: “CCP internal factions intended to use the
Diaoyu Islands dispute as a chance to expand and complicate some other historical issues, but still failed.
As the disintegration of the CCP moves forward,
China’s democracy is just around the corner.
Considering the views that China and Japan will hold
on historical and territorial issues, which include the
Diaoyu Islands, I believe, they will reflect the will
of the people and respect the reality of history more.”
Reportedly, on October 20, the group of Chinese tourists
also visited local famous sights in Kumamoto.
The tour group returned to Shanghai the next day.
