【新唐人2012年10月10日訊】在距離中共18大開幕僅剩一個月的時刻，北京政壇又傳出：現任中共最高領導人胡錦濤已確定「裸退」的消息，但前提是：江澤民必須徹底退出公共生活。在此之前，盛傳胡錦濤將保留「中央軍委主席」一段時間。
海外中文媒體8號引述北京消息人士的話說，胡錦濤將在18大「裸退」，但保留三大條件。一是，前最高領導人江澤民必須徹底退出公共生活；二，讓他保持過去江澤民退休後的地位，尤其在國際問題（包括台灣、西藏問題）上保留發言權；三是，溫家寶退休後將保持國內問題上的發言權，包括對64等敏感歷史問題的處理。
前美國「哥倫比亞大學」訪問學者、政治分析家陳破空指出，當年的「胡溫新政」無疾而終，就是江澤民等干政的結果。如果胡錦濤不想重蹈江澤民覆轍，在歷史上留下駡名，讓世人嘲諷，「裸退」不失為上策。
政治分析家陳破空：「如果說胡錦濤退位，他逼著江澤民退出政治舞臺，江、胡都不要再影響政策，如果以這個作為條件的話，我想反而對中國的政治改革是一個促進。因為中國政治改革必須以結束老人政治為前提，如果老人政治沒有結束，政治改革很難開展。」
但是，時事評論員傑森‧馬認為，胡錦濤「裸退」，是政治對手放出來的風聲，因為江澤民沒有任何職務，在官方媒體上早就消失了，他已經沒有資本和胡錦濤做交易，所以，這是海外江派媒體降低胡錦濤威信的手段。
時事評論員傑森‧馬：「完全是江派在撒煙霧彈，因為本身江派已經沒有任何實際的權力，而所有消息都是假的。那麼，以這樣空對空的東西，居然想創造出讓人相信胡錦濤會『裸退』。這樣的消息，本身來說是很荒謬、很可笑的。」
曾任香港《文匯報》東北辦事處主任的姜維平則認為，胡錦濤「留任軍委主席」，有利於中國改革。
稍早前，姜維平在媒體上評論指出，從目前中國的政治局勢來看，如果胡錦濤在處理薄熙來問題之後，「留任軍委主席至少兩年」，那麼，必定有利於習近平和李克強接班，也有利於相對開明的黨內改革派的力量滋長，進一步阻擊左傾的「二次文革」思潮的干擾，進而可能開啟規模空前的政治體制改革，「六四」將獲得平反。
英國《金融時報》今年3月透露：近幾年，溫家寶已在三次中共高層秘密會議中提議為六四平反，但是每次都遭到在場部分官員的反對，而重慶前市委書記薄熙來是其中反對最為激烈的官員之一。
不過，外界普遍認為，薄熙來的政變計劃傳言，徹底改變了中國政局的走向。今年2月6號，重慶前副市長王立軍攜帶機密資料，出逃成都美國領事館，引爆薄熙來和中共政法委書記周永康策劃政變的黑幕。
美國媒體在中共國家副主席習近平訪美期間，率先曝光薄、周秘謀政變醜聞。報導說，他們擬定了一個完整的中國新年後攻擊習近平的計劃，就是：通過海外媒體釋放出對習近平的各種指責和批判，削弱習近平的權力，然後幫助薄熙來接任政法委書記。薄熙來掌握武警、公安系統後，時機許可時，強迫習近平交權。
中共當局在9月28號宣佈了薄熙來的六宗罪狀，開除他的黨籍和公職，並移送司法機關處理。 香港《蘋果日報》和《明報》等諸多媒體都認為，這是中共第四代領導人胡錦濤和第五代領導人習近平聯手的結果。
一般分析認為，既然胡、習已經緊密結盟，胡錦濤名義上是否「全退」已不重要，因為對中共政局不會有實質性的影響。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/宋風 後製/薛莉
Will CCP Leader Hu Jintao Resign All Positions?
A month before the Chinese Communist Party(CCP)’s 18th
National People’s Congress, a rumor spreads in Beijing’s
political field that, Hu Jintao will resign from all positions,
on the basis that Jiang totally disappears from public actions.
But before Jiang Zemin steps down, Hu will remain
chairman of the Central Military Commission.
October 8—overseas Chinese media
quoted Beijing sources saying,
Hu Jintao will resign from all positions at the CCP’s
18th National People’s Congress (NPC), under 3 conditions.
1. Former supreme leader Jiang Zemin must completely
withdraw from public life;
2. Hu will keep all positions until then, reserving the right to
speak on international issues including on Taiwan and Tibet;
3. Wen Jiabao will reserve the right to speak on domestic
issues, like ‘June 4th’ and other sensitive historical topics.
Chen Pokong, political analyst and
former visiting scholar of U.S. Columbia University, said
the Hu-Wen Reform ended before,
because of Jiang Zemin’s interference.
Chen says, if Hu Jintao did not want to
repeat Jiang Zemin’s mistakes,
he must leave infamy in the past and let the world
mock him; it would be best policy to resign from all posts.
[Chen Pokong, Political analyst]:
“If Hu Jintao’s resignation is to force Jiang Zemin to quit the stage of history—neither will influence policies again.
Then, I think it’s good for China’s political reform, which will
only be made possible by terminating the ruling of elders."
But political commentator Jason Ma believes that Hu Jintao’s
news of resignation was released by his political opponents.
Jiang does not hold any current positions and disappeared
from official media long ago, so cannot make a deal with Hu.
So the news on Hu was likely released by Jiang』s faction
to reduce Hu’s prestige, according to Ma.
[Jason Ma, Political Commentator]: “Jiang’s faction
is throwing smoke bombs, because it has no actual power.
All messages are false—it’s trying to convince others that Hu
will resign, without any evidence; it’s absurd and ridiculous."
Jiang Weiping, former director of Hong Kong
Wen Wei Po’s northeast office,
says Hu Jintao’s remaining Chairman of the
Central Military Commission is favorable to China’s reform.
Media reported Jiang Weiping noting that,
Hu has remained Chairman of the Central Military
Commission for at least 2 years after ordering Bo Xilai’s case.
Looking at the current political situation, it must have been
conducive to the succession of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
It must have also been conducive to the development of
the relatively liberal reformists,
by blocking interference from the leftists’
“2nd Cultural Revolution”, which may have in turn, began an unprecedented scale of political reform.
It may have also led to vindicating the “June Fourth" event.
The Financial Times (UK) said in March that, in recent years,
Wen Jiabao had proposed secret CCP leadership meetings 3 times,
to verdict ‘June 4th’, but some officials opposed Hu
each time, with Bo Xilai opposing him most strongly.
Outsiders widely believed the disclosed coup plans of Bo Xilai
which totally changed the trend of China’s political situation.
On February 6, Wang Lijun, former vice mayor of Chongqing,
fled to the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu with confidential information,
setting off a coup plan of Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang,
the secretary of CCP Politics and Law Committee.
During vice President Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States,
U.S. media exposed Bo and Zhou’s political coup plans.
It was reported that Bo and Zhou had developed a complete
plan on how to attack Xi Jinping after the New Year.
That is, by releasing all kinds of accusations and criticism
against Xi through overseas media, to weaken Xi’s power,
and then help Bo take over as secretary of the Politics
and Law Committee.
When Bo had taken charge of the armed police and public
security system, they would force Xi to hand over power.
On October 28, the Communist regime announced the 6 sins
of Bo Xilai, dismissed him from the CCP and public positions, and transferred him to judicial organs.
Hong Kong’s Apple Daily and Ming Pao, among many others,
believe it was achieved through joint efforts by Hu and Xi.
Analysts say, since Hu and Xi are closely allied, it’s not
important whether Hu Jintao will resign nominally, as it will not affect Chinese politics much.
