【新唐人2012年10月8日訊】自中共中央政治局會議決定，前重慶市委書記薄熙來被「雙開」，以及確定中共「十八大」會期，10月成為中共「十七屆七中全會」，和中共「十八大」最關鍵的籌備期。有報導指稱，這最後籌備期之所以「關鍵」，是因為有個「翻盤」之憂。分析認為，從當局對薄熙來的態度來看，在「十八大」前「翻盤」的可能性很小，「十八大」之後，才是中共真正變局的開始。
有海外媒體報導說，中國十八大前有「翻盤」之憂，可能翻的是甚麼盤呢？報導指出，主要體現在兩大方面，一個是人事大盤，一個是政治大盤。
報導說，人事大盤，主要指政治局常委的名單，將影響到明年3月國家領導體制的人事調整，以及政府、人大、政協三套班子的調整。
而政治大盤，則由中共「十八大」的政治報告來承載，胡錦濤做最後一份政治總結報告，同時，也是習近平、李克強宣佈新領導層的大政方針—-施政新綱領，因此，是各方勢力必然進襲的一個盤子。
美國「喬治梅森大學」教授、時事評論家章天亮認為，「十八大」之前出現變數的可能性不大。
時事評論家 章天亮：「現在基本上已經定盤了，就是說，薄熙來會受到重判，現在有人預料，他甚至可能判處死刑立即執行，也就是說現在胡溫已經徹底的把周永康、江澤民、薄熙來，這一派系『血債幫』已經給打垮了，打垮了之後的話，剩下的事，是怎麼樣安排人事的問題了。」
章天亮還指出，在「十八大」之前，「血債幫」沒有翻盤機會，「十八大」之後，才是中共真正變局的開始。
章天亮：「因為十八大之後，除了審薄熙來之外，習近平上臺，他現在也要考慮到自己還能做多長時間，中共不會再有十年的壽命了，從現在的情況來看，所有中共能夠用了維系統治的那些，手段也好，或者說藉口也好，已經都用盡了。」
外界認為，在中共雙開薄熙來的公告中，有一句「調查中還發現薄熙來其他涉嫌犯罪問題的線索」，留下了對薄熙來判刑的巨大議論空間。與此同時，大陸網上短暫解禁了「活摘器官」和「薄熙來」「王立軍」等敏感詞。
今年4月，王立軍事件後，大陸百度網站和中國四大微博，也曾經一度解禁「活摘器官」等關鍵詞，從而引發揣測。
章天亮：「現在大陸民怨四起，至於共產黨來，如果再延續過去的政策，可能很快就被抗暴也好。或者其他別的因素所吞沒，現在就是說，活摘法輪功學員器官，這種人神共憤的事情，也掩蓋不住了，中共政權可以說集體待斃了，只是看當權的這些人，他們自己是怎麼選擇。」
此外，海外中文媒體發文指稱，被公認已成「活死屍」的前中共黨魁江澤民，9月22號晚「罕見現身」國家大劇院，觀看西方音樂劇。但是，大陸官方媒體對此沒有任何報導。輿論認為，江澤民在中共十八大權力更迭前夕亮相的消息，官媒至今絕口不提，卻由海外媒體替江系放風，暗藏「詭異」，對江派勢力來講是一個很不好的兆頭。
章天亮：「這說明江澤民已經衰的不行了，就包括本身都可能是個假消息，週永康是死保他（薄熙來）的，薄熙來被重判，說明周永康不但保不住他，可能自身都難保。」
因此，中共新一屆所謂的領導班子，是選擇拋棄中共，從新審視歷史，還是選擇為中共陪葬，就顯得尤為重要。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/周天
Political Upheaval in CCP Rule: Veil Will Be Uncovered After 18th National Congress
The Chinese Communist Party recently
made two announcements.
Bo Xilai, former party chief in Chongqing, was expelled
from the party and removed from his post.
The date for the 18th National Congress was also decided.
October is now the period of preparation,
ahead of the Congress in November.
Reports state that October is a very critical time,
because there may be upheavals taking place.
Some analysts think there is little chance that upheavals
will occur before the 18th National Congress.
This is based on observing Bo Xilai’s current situation.
However, after the 18th National Congress,
a real upheaval might take place in China.
Some overseas media reported that upheavals may take
place in China before the 18th National Congress.
How might upheaval manifest?
The reports state that there could be personnel
changes, and political changes.
The report further stated that the personnel situation refers
to committee members in the Standing Committee.
This will impact the personnel modification
of the senior authorities in early March next year.
It also impacts administrative governments, National
Congress members and Political Consultative members.
China’s political situation will be dominated by the last
political report that Hu Jintao is going to make in the 18th National Congress, before his term of presidency expires.
It’s also about new political policies that Xi Jinping
and Li Keqiang are going to announce.
This is also what all the party factions are trying to pin down.
Zhang Tianliang, Professor from
George Mason University, commented
There is little chance that any upheaval will take
place in China before the 18th National Congress.
Zhang Tianliang: “Now the political situation in China
is almost clear. Bo Xilai will be convicted.
Some people predict that Bo will be given
the death penalty, and an immediate execution.
This means that Hu Jintao & Wen Jiabao have
already defeated the blood-debt faction of Jiang Zemin, Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai.
The next step is about rearranging personnel.”
Zhang Tianliang also highlights that the blood-debt faction
does not now have another chance to plot interference before the 18th National Congress.
Only after the 18th National Congress
could a political upheaval happen in China.
Zhang Tianliang: “After the 18th National Congress,
Xi Jinping will need to think about how long his term of presidency can last.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in China
cannot last another 10 years any more.
The CCP has already used up all means
or excuses to maintain its rule in China.”
In the announcement of Bo Xilai’s expulsion from the party
and removal from his post, there is a sentence stating
“during investigation, Bo Xilai was found to have
been involved in other criminal activities.”
This sentence provides a wide range of possibilities
about what crimes Bo will be convicted of.
Meanwhile, China has temporarily lifted
an internet ban on sensitive words, such as “Live organ harvesting”, “Bo Xilai” and “Wang Lijun”.
After the “Wang Lijun Incident” in April, Baidu and
other micro-blogging sites also temporarily un-banned sensitive words like “Live organ harvesting”.
This phenomenon trigged a lot of speculation.
Zhang Tianliang: “In China, people’s
discontentment is widespread.
If the CCP continue’s to rule as it has in the past, it might
be overturned very soon, or be undermined by other factors.
This brutal and inhuman crime, live organ harvesting
from Falun Gong practitioners, can no longer remain hidden.
All the CCP senior authorities are facing the death penalty.
We are watching what choices they are going to make.”
Some overseas media reported that Jiang Zemin,
widely known to be in a vegetative state, appeared in the National Theater to watch a western opera.
However, China’s official media didn’t report a word about it.
Some observers think that it’s not a positive sign for Jiang’s
faction, when they used Jiang Zemin to influence the 18th National Congress but official media haven’t reported on it.
It’s strange that that the news about Jiang’s appearance
in the National Theater was only reported by overseas media.
Zhang Tianliang: ”This means that Jiang Zemin
has no influence in China at all now.
Even the news about Jiang’s appearance
at the National Theater might be fake.
Zhou Yongkang has been firmly supporting Bo Xilai.
It has turned out that Zhou Yongkang was not able to protect
Bo Xilai, and Zhou is not even able to protect himself now.”
Therefore, it is now critical whether the new leadership
will abandon the CCP and re-evaluate history.
Or will they choose to be buried with the CCP?
