【新唐人2012年9月1日訊】海內外各界都緊盯著的中共十八大，很有可能在接下來的幾週內登場。十八大之後，不少人曾經報以幻想的「胡溫新政」將走入歷史，而新的中共領導核心，在經歷了連番的搶奪廝殺並登上權力高位後，又將把苦難深重的中國帶向何方？
今天中共面對的內外局勢，比以往嚴峻很多，無論內政、外交或經濟，都發出了警訊。
最新消息指稱，新的中共七常委人選已經有了預案，但分析認為，十八大權力交接並不樂觀。因為牽扯到江胡習三屆核心的合縱連橫，加上薄熙來、王立軍案的影響，一切都比往常複雜許多。
獨立評論員、中國社會問題研究人士張健：「看似利益已經平衡了，但是一旦有一個事件作為爆發點的話，它又會形成一個重新的力量組合。」
時政評論專家伍凡也指出，即使開了十八大，很多問題還是無法解決。因為結構性的問題，並非換下幾個人就能解決的。
時政評論家伍凡：「他們現在也在更重要的矛盾底下，又要維持這個政權，要平衡，並且從老百姓手上拿了那麼多錢財，所以很多矛盾它無法解決。它一拖再拖，拖到最後，那就總爆發。你期望開十八大能解決這些問題嗎？那是癡人夢想。」
另一方面，所謂中國的經濟「神話」逐漸破滅，社會各種矛盾也漸漸顯露出來，甚至全面爆發。GDP數字，就官方所宣佈的，「保8」如今也已成了難以實現的懸念。
而這一切將由「習李新體制」買單。那麼，習近平將會給疲軟的經濟紓困嗎？中國經濟困境的解藥又在哪裏？
美國「南卡羅來納大學」教授謝田認為，這要看習近平上臺以後，在政治上有甚麼舉措。
美「南卡羅來納大學」教授謝田：「我們知道中國經濟目前陷入非常困難的狀況。中國許多產業都出現了生產過剩，但是共產黨還在繼續營造假的GDP，所以中國從刺激經濟那些錢，到現在極度浪費和重復的投資，根源都是共產黨的一黨專制。」
謝田指出，習近平必須看清一點，造成經濟停滯，進出口增速下降，通貨膨脹，民怨日增，一切的根源都是「中共」。
謝田：「如果習近平能夠意識到這一點，順應民意，解體中共，在他的手上把中共解體了，也許中國的經濟局勢才會有所變化。如果他死抱著維護共產黨的統治這一點的話，那造成經濟困境的原因不能解除的話，那中國經濟只能繼續往下走。」
另外，對於全球都關注的薄熙來事件，雖然《世界新聞網》的社論認為，如果習近平接手處理這一政治難題，薄熙來東山再起的任何可能性都將被截斷，因為要為薄熙來翻案，就等於要否定習近平。
但是，由「王薄案」引爆的中共高層內鬥，其中一個無法繞過的核心問題，就是法輪功的問題，習近平有勇氣面對嗎？
張健認為，只要明白中共有多邪惡，就不會幻想魔鬼迫害人之後，還道歉﹗
張健：「不要幻想胡錦濤這一代，或者十八大之後，新一代的領導人對法輪功有任何平反的行為。根本就不可能，這種幻想就（等於）與虎謀皮。中國從49年，所有幾千萬人，他們說的冤魂，都會得到昭雪。它怎麼可能幾代之後，就把中國幾千年的文明恢復，把自己犯下的罪行整個顛覆了？」
當然，一切並沒有最後定局。不過，當今的中共當權者，在所謂的盛世中感受到的危機，也許比100年前的清政府，更加直接和緊迫。
採訪/唐睿 編輯/王子琦 後製/王明宇
Xi Jinping in power, Where is China Going?
People from all walks of life at home and abroad are focusing
on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) 18th National Congress,
which is likely to debut in the next few weeks.
A lot of people imagine that Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s reform
policy will soon be history after the 18th National Congress.
Having been through infighting and coming out on top in the end,
in which direction will the new CCP leadership take China?
Let』s take a look.
Now the CCP is facing internal and external situations
that are much more severe than in the past.
Whether it’s economic, domestic or foreign affairs all areas
have issued alerts.
New allegations reveal that the CCP’s seven member Standing
Committee candidates already have contingency plans,
but analysts believe that a power transfer at the 18th National
Congress is not optimistic.
Because it involves the intrigue of third core of Jiang Zemin,
Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping, plus Bo Xilai and Wang Lijun』s cases,
everything is made much more complex than usual.
Independent commentator Zhang Jian: “It seems that the
interests of all parties have been balanced,
but once an incident becomes a breaking point,
it will form a re-alignment of forces."
Wu Fan, current affairs special commentator, also pointed out
that even with the start of the 18th National Congress,
many problems still cannot be resolved.
Because of the political structure of the problem,
they will not be solved by replacing a few leaders.
Current affairs commentator Wu Fan: “Currently, they are
facing major conflicts, in order to maintain power, they need to balance all aspects.
They’ve taken so much money from the people of China;
so many conflicts cannot be resolved.
[Conflicts] accumulate and accumulate until the end, they erupt.
If someone expects to solve these problems in
the 18th National Congress, they are dreaming"
On the other hand, the so-called economic “myths" have
gradually been busted,
the various conflicts in society are gradually being revealed,
and even on a full-scale.
More than 8% economic growth rate, announced by the
official GDP data, which also has been difficult to achieve.
And all of these will be paid for by “Xi and Li』s new system".
Then, can Xi Jinping solve the problem of the sluggish economy?
What is the answer to China’s economic plight?
Xie Tian, Professor at University of South Carolina, thinks that
it depends on Xi Jinping』s political initiatives when he grasps power.
Professor Xie Tian: “As we all know, China’s economy
is caught in a very difficult situation.
The problem of overproduction has emerged in
many industries in China.
But the Communist Party continues to produce fake GDP.
So the money of stimulating the economy,
and now extreme waste and duplication of investment,
the root causes are the Communist Party’s
one-party dictatorship."
Xie Tian pointed out that Xi Jinping must understand clearly
that the root of the economic standstill, import and export growth slowing,
inflation, and the increases in public grievances, is the CCP.
Xie Tian: “If Xi Jinping can realize that he should heed the
public』s will to dismiss the Communist Party, perhaps China’s economic situation will be changed.
If he still maintains the rule of the Communist Party, the causes
of the economic hardship can not be discharged, and the Chinese economy can only go down."
In addition, regarding worldwide attention to the Bo Xilai event,
“World News" editorial pointed out that if Xi Jinping takes over
to deal with the political problem, any possibility of Bo’s being re-enabled will be truncated.
Because of Bo reversing the verdict, it is tantamount to
negation of Xi Jinping.
However, the inner senior bucket of the CCP triggered by the
“Wang and Bo case", the core problem is the issue of Falun Gong,
has Xi Jinping enough courage to face it?
Zhang Jian believes that as long as someone understands
how evil the CCP is,
then he will not have illusions that the devil
will apologize to the persecuted people!
Zhang Jian: “Don』t have any illusions for the generation of
Hun Jintao and the elected leaders after the 18th national congress.
It is impossible. This illusion is unrealistic.
After 1949 the Chinese Communists killed tens of millions of
people, these innocent people will get justice.
How it can be only a few generations later,
and it renews China’s thousands of years of civilization?
Will it subvert all the crimes they have committed? “
Of course, everything does not have a final conclusion.
However, the current Chinese Communist Party in power
perceived crisis in the so-called Golden Age,
who are perhaps more than 100 years ago,
the Qing government, more directly and urgently.
