【新唐人2011年3月30日訊】2011年為辛亥革命百年，今天中國的局勢和晚清有很多相似之處，再加上中東北非民主革命浪潮越演越烈，中國未來走向也是觀察家們熱衷討論的話題。近日，有學者指出，中共內部腐敗，中國巨變為期不遠。
據台灣《聯合報》報導，旅居澳大利亞的著名作家、法學家袁紅冰教授，3月28號到台灣政治大學發表“中國自由民主的展望及其影響”專題演講。他在演講中指出，二○一三到二○一五年中間，大陸將會發生重大政治事件，政治體制將出現巨變。
袁紅冰強調，目前的共產黨是個腐敗的政黨。雖然很多人看到它經濟成長，但卻是從資源毀滅性開發、長期剝削農民工而來。他還指出，目前大陸百分之卅的土地遭到幾百種重金屬污染，黃河斷流、長江水系崩潰、北方沙漠化，生態難民會是未來三年最嚴重的問題。
目前，大陸三億多農民工每天勞動卻只領取不到一元美金的酬勞，全國大部分的財產掌握在百分之一的領導階層手中，社會產生了巨大矛盾。袁紅冰認為，這樣的社會環境，是產生社會革命的必然模式。
同時，世界媒體也在質疑中共政府近期所為，懷疑內部出現了問題。29號，法國論壇報發表一篇題為《沸騰的中國靜悄悄》的文章。文章作者經濟博士福洛朗蒂諾指出，世界處於沸點，地球在爆炸。只有中國在國際經濟，金融和政治舞臺上卻不可置信的悄然無聲。
福洛朗蒂諾分析，中共不參與反卡扎菲的行動倒不足為奇。但是，債務率飆升，本應該購進希臘，愛爾蘭，葡萄牙或西班牙的公債，然而卻看不到任何一個中國買者。另外，中共也沒有參與干預日元的上升。福洛朗蒂諾認為，中共的這次沉默是因為中國內部隱藏著深層危機。
雖然中共的統治出現了危機，袁紅冰認為，促成中國的巨變還要等待時機。他在2月28號布里斯班演講中表示，中共把國家恐怖主義發揮到極致，在中國爆發一次人民革命確實很難。
袁紅冰：“但就我對中國的了解，在中國內部，造成像前蘇聯共產帝國崩潰的所有社會因素迅速成熟起來，社會矛盾早已經達到了革命的臨界點，現在等待只是一次歷史的偶然性，來點燃達到這一臨界點的社會矛盾。”
袁紅冰認為，雖然很難判斷那一天發生革命，但他相信很快就會發生。
新唐人記者宋風、孫寧綜合報導。
China Next on the Revolution List
2011 is the 100th anniversary of the 1911 Revolution.
With China’s current situation and the revolutions in
the Middle East and North Africa, China’s future
has become a widely discussed topic. Scholars
believe corruption in the Chinese Communist Party
(CCP) will bring major change to China very soon.
According to United Daily New, renowned author
and scholar, Yuan Hongbing, predicted during
a speech at Nation Chengchi University in Taiwan
that major political events and structural changes
would occur in China between 2013 and 2015.
Yuan emphasized that the communist party has
become thoroughly corrupt. Its economic growth
is built on the destructive exploitation of natural
and human resources. He also pointed out that
eco-disasters, like soil contamination and land
desertification would be some of China’s biggest
problems in the next 3 years.
Today, over 300 million workers struggle on daily
wages of less than USD1. Most of China’s wealth
is controlled by 1% of its population,
causing acute social conflicts. Yuan believes
that such conflicts will lead to a revolution.
Media suspect internal problems in the CCP.
La Tribune published an article describing China as
“boiling silently” while the rest of the world
explodes economically and politically.
The article pointed out China’s invisibility in
the Euro zone bond buys. China also did not help
with the rise of the Japanese Yen. The article said
that these are signs of deep crisis in China.
Yuan Hongbing thinks the timing has to be right for
changes to occur in China. On February 28 he said
it would be very difficult to start a revolution under
the currently incited extreme nationalism.
“Based on my understanding of China, conditions
are maturing for a revolution similar to that in the
Soviet Union. Social conflicts are on the verge
of an outbreak. We are only waiting for the
right timing, a spark to set such conflicts on fire.”
袁紅冰認為，雖然很難判斷那一天發生革命，但他相信很快就會發生。
Yuan believes that a revolution will occur very soon.
NTD reporters Song Feng and Sun Ning
