【新唐人2014年08月14日訊】近兩年，大陸房市持續低迷、成交量不斷走低，房價也開始下跌。繼部分房企因為資金鏈斷裂而破產跑路之後，一些房屋買家也「棄房斷供」，讓本已寒意甚濃的大陸房市雪上加霜。各地方政府為確保土地財政，紛紛出手「鬆綁」限購令，意圖挽救樓市。但放鬆限購令的實際效果到底是否能如當局所願，外界充滿質疑。

大陸《21世紀經濟報導》最近披露，今年五、六月份，浙江杭州、江蘇無錫、福建寧德、江蘇新沂等地，都出現業主個人按揭貸款逾期未還，而被銀行起訴的案例。而早在去年7月，民間金融高度發達的浙江溫州就曾爆出，各類「棄房」案例達595例，產生不良貸款4億多元。

報導說，目前還沒有更多數據顯示「棄房斷供」已成為全國普遍現象，但是，大陸監管部門自身披露的信息早已印證了這一問題的嚴重。

5月12號，大陸央行副行長劉士餘主持召開「住房金融服務」專題座談會。會議透露出的信息就包括：為防止購房者因為房價下跌而斷供，央行要求銀行優先確保住房貸款。

兩週前，銀監會主席尚福林也承認：三、四線城市相關信貸風險需高度關注，一些中小房企的資金鏈緊張，部分地區已出現房企甚至業主違約。

浙江財經大學經濟與國際貿易學院教授謝作詩：「為甚麼出現？一定是房價跌的程度超過了首付。或者說房子現在的價值都比不過未來要還銀行的錢。」

「浙江財經大學經濟與國際貿易學院」教授謝作詩向《新唐人》表示，長期來看，「棄房斷供」現象未來還會增加。因為如果當局不去再次大規模印發貨幣救市的 話，房價只會下跌。但即使是增發貨幣，進行經濟刺激，效果也是短暫的，一旦這種「強心劑」不再打了，經濟下滑、房價下跌都是必然的。

2010年，為打壓房市泡沫，北京首先發出「限購令」，之後廣州、上海、杭州等十多個城市緊隨其後。第二年，近五十個二、三線城市也實行「限購令」。但限購令的出現，並沒有有效抑制大陸房價的飛漲。

而隨著近兩年來中國經濟的整體下滑、房市的持續量價齊跌，各級政府為保證土地財政，又紛紛取消限購令。今年6月，內蒙古呼和浩特市首先宣佈撤銷「限購令」。此後，濟南、海口、溫州等城市陸續跟上。到了8月，合肥、金華、太原、長沙、佛山也取消限購。

貴州遵義和業房地產經紀有限公司楊先生：「房價現在跌的太厲害了。不可能政府不救。政府肯定還是要出一些寬鬆的政策讓人家買房子。都沒有人買了，肯定經濟會癱瘓的。」

但在中國整體經濟下滑、房價過高的情況之下，「鬆綁」限購令到底能否盤活樓市，各界普遍持懷疑態度。

謝作詩：「放鬆限購或者是放棄限購，也不能阻止房價下跌。我買房幹啥？是希望它增值。知道房價預期下跌，我不買了。我不買了，你放鬆限購有甚麼用呢？我本來就不打算買。」

《自由亞洲電臺》援引長沙作家肖建生的觀點表示，即使解除限購，也不能解決問題：因為現在房屋還是處於有價無市的狀態，進城的農民仍然買不起房。而買得起房子的人現在早已有房子住。

根據「中國指數研究院」公布的最新報告，儘管各地爭先取消限購令，7月份大陸100個城市新建住宅均價環比下跌0.81%，跌幅較上個月擴大，其中北京、上海等十大城市全部環比下跌、且跌幅超過全國。

採訪/易如 編輯/李謙 後製/鍾元

House Owners Default On Mortgages, Authorities Relax Purchasing Restrictions

Over the past two years, the mainland housing market has

remained in the doldrums with trading volume in decline.

Following the flee of property developers due to funding

strand breaks and bankruptcy, some home buyers

are abandoning houses and defaulting on mortgages,

further aggravating the chilled housing market.

In order to ensure government finance, which is dependent

on the funds from sold land, the local governments

have deregulated the existing home purchase restriction

orders intended to save the property market.

The public is full of doubt regarding whether the practical

effect of the relaxed restriction order will achieve

the authorities wishes in the end.

A Mainland 21st Century Economic Report recently disclosed

that in May and June of this year, Hangzhou City of Zhejiang

Province, Wuxi City of Jiangsu Province, Ningde City of Fujian

Province, Xinyi City of Jiangsu Province and others are all

experiencing defaults on personal mortgage loans.

The bank sued the property owners.

As early as last July, 595 cases of all kinds of house

abandonments occurred in Wenzhou City of Zhejiang

Province, which has a highly developed private finance,

resulting in more than 400 million yuan worth of bad loans.

The report says no data is available to show the common

phenomenon of housing foreclosures.

However, information disclosed by the Mainland regulatory

authorities has confirmed the severity of the problem.

On May 12, Mainland Central Bank Vice President Liu Shiyu

hosted the Housing Finance Service Symposium Conference

which disclosed information regarding the prevention

of buyers from foreclosing due to falling house prices.

The Central Bank requires all banks

to give priority to housing loans.

Two weeks ago, China Banking Regulatory Commission

Chairman Shang Fulin admitted third and fourth-tier cities

need to give a lot of attention to the credit risk.

Some small and medium-size property enterprises

suffered capital chain tension.

Some housing property enterprises and even home buyers

broke contracts in some areas.

Xie Zuoshi is a Professor of Economics and International

Trade School of Zhejiang University of Finance.

He says, “Why did this happen?

This must be due to prices falling

more than the down payment.

Or the value of the house now is lower than the returned

loan payment to the bank in the future."

Professor Xie Zuoshi told NTDTV that in the long term,

the foreclosure phenomenon will increase in the future.

If the authorities do not repeatedly issue large-scale bills

to bailout the property market, housing prices

will continue to fall.

But even if more currency is issued and enhancements are

made to the economic stimulus, the effects are short-lived.

Once a “shot in the arm" is no longer given, the economic

downturn and falling house prices are both inevitable.

In 2010, in order to suppress the housing bubble, Beijing

issued the first restriction order on house purchases,

and more than a dozen cities including Guangzhou,

Shanghai, Hangzhou and others followed suit.

Over the next year, nearly 50 second and third-tier cities

also implemented restriction orders.

But the application of the purchase orders did not

effectively inhibit the soaring Mainland housing prices.

Along with the overall decline of the Chinese economy

over the past two years, and persistently decreased

transactions and the reduced prices in the housing market,

governments at all levels have to cancel purchase orders

to ensure the operation of the land-dependent finance.

In June of this year, Hohhot City of Inner Mongolia first

announced its withdrawal of its restriction order.

Since then, Jinan, Haikou and Wenzhou cities

have followed.

Up until August, Hefei, Jinhua, Taiyuan, Changsha,

Foshan also cancelled purchase restrictions.

Mr. Yang, Heye Real Estate Brokers Company, Zunyi City

of Guizhou Province: “House prices fell too much now.

It is impossible for the government not to save.

Government is certainly able to produce some liberal

policies to promote house transactions.

If no one buys, then the economy

is of course paralyzed."

However, under the circumstances of China’s overall

economic downturn and overly-high property prices,

the public is generally skeptical that deregulating

restrictions will save the property market.

Xie Zuoshi: “Relaxing the restriction order or abandoning

the restriction order cannot stop the falling housing prices.

So what’s the aim for me to buy a property?

I buy a house in the hopes that the value increases

in the future.

If the house prices are expected to fall, then I do not buy.

If I do not buy, what sort of use is there in relaxing

the purchase order, I would have had no intention to buy."

Radio Free Asia quoted writer Mr. Xiao Jiansheng from

Changsha City and reported that even if the restriction

is lifted, the key problems cannot be solved because

there is not much buying capacity in the housing market.

Migrant farmers in the city still cannot afford

current housing prices.

Those people who can afford current housing prices

previously had a place to live.

According to the latest report published by China Index

Academy, many places across the country rushed to cancel

purchase orders in July, although the average price of new

homes in 100 mainland cities decreased by 0.81 percent.

MoM continued to decline compared to last month.

Among these 100 cities, the top ten cities

including Beijing and Shanghai have all experienced

falling prices, and the range is higher than

the national average.

Interview/YiRu Edit/LiQian Post-Production/ZhongYuan