【新唐人2013年02月23日訊】奪回釣魚島，很可能成為中共「習李體制」的三大新政策之一。據報導，新上臺的中共總書記習近平掌權後將有大動作，三月下旬很可能對日本發動攻勢，奪回釣魚島。但分析指出，中共「造輿論」，實際只是為了維持大陸民眾的民族主義情緒，轉移民眾對政府的不滿。中日雙方會不會為了釣魚島而不顧一切的打一場戰爭？多數認為：可能性不大。為甚麼呢？請看以下的分析報導。

中共新領導人習近平、李克強將在3月15號正式上臺，日本最新一期的週刊現代雜誌，專訪了一名中共高幹，這名人士指出，中國有句俚語新官上任三把火，習、李政權必然會列出三大新政策，就像十年前胡錦濤、溫家寶體制起步後，提出「對抗SARS、舉辦六方會談、應對伊拉克戰爭」三大新政策一樣。而奪回釣島，很可能成為習、李體制的三大新政策之一。

這名消息人士解讀指出，習近平在2010年大力推動中、臺自由貿易協定，下一步很可能與台灣合作一起「奪回釣島」。

2月15號上午，三艘中國海監船再度進入釣魚島領海，中國海洋局也在同一天對外表示，海監船將繼續於釣魚島中國領海中執勤。

釣魚島的緊張局勢，會不會演變為中日戰爭﹖

據了解，美國一再表示，尊重日本現在管治釣魚島的現狀。而且，釣魚島的安全問題，實際是在美國跟日本的安全條約範圍之內。因此，中共一旦對釣魚島有所行動，勢必把美國也拉進去。

而時政評論家伍凡認為，美國現在對中共的態度趨於強硬。

伍凡：「因為它（中共）對日本行動，要看美國的態度。美國現在很強硬！現在網路戰在中共來講，是和釣魚島基本上連在一起了。給美國施加壓力，現在美國要反擊。」

不過，有媒體分析，打擊日本是中共高層利用對外政策，轉移內部矛盾、凝聚民心的一個選項！

中國問題獨立評論員李善鑑認為，習近平並不是真正的對領土那麼感興趣，他主要的考慮點，在於國內的政治。

李善鑑：「一方面，中共現在已經沒有甚麼人在相信它這個主義了，用民族主義來維持它的統治、來提高它的凝聚力，所以搞這個爭端。可是，它又不敢太過，失控的話，其實對它的統治又不利。」

伍凡：「我的感覺，它是利用民族主義這個情緒來支持它這個政權，來對抗美國和日本。但是它的火侯，一根一根點，不易讓它燒起來，這種狀況在我看來，習近平認為對他是最有利的。不完全打戰，但他把火往上引！他用這個情緒來控制民族主義來為他服務，把其他的社會矛盾轉移和壓下去。但是矛盾總爆發也有可能。你能控制得住現在老百姓的情緒嗎﹖」

伍凡表示，現在是網上對壘的時候，還沒到真正開打的時候。但是如果繼續對壘下去，總有一天會爆發。他說，習近平想把俄國人也拉進來!因為習近平一上任國家主席後，外訪的第一站已經選擇去俄國。

而李善鑑認為，現在除了民族主義之外，習近平沒有其他更有效的辦法來轉移民眾對政府的不滿。

李善鑑：「每鬧那麼一回，每折騰那麼一回，那些真正的想愛國的、對中國領土確實是關心的，甚至願意自己做出犧牲的這些人，那他們慢慢的也會看出這個黨，其實它並沒有真正的採取真正的實質作法，來把領土拿回來。當然越來越多的人明白的時候，可能它遊戲也就玩不下去了。」

李善鑑還提到，其實這麼多年來，很多人都在議論中共軍隊的腐敗和戰鬥力等等，說：如果真正軍隊一開戰的時候，士兵槍口對著誰?都不好說！

採訪/田淨 編輯/周平 後製/周天

Retaking the Diaoyu Islands, a New Policy by Xi-Li?

Retaking the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands is likely one of

three major new polices under the new Xi-Li administration.

Reportedly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) new leader

Xi Jinping will take tough actions after taking office in March.

In late March, the CCP regime may launch an offensive

against Japan, to seize back the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.

Commentators say that the CCP hypes nationalism aiming to

fuel public emotion and divert discontent from the regime.

Will the Diaoyu Islands issue evolve into a real war

between China and Japan?

The majority think it’s unlikely.

Let’s see what reasons have driven to this conclusion.

On March 15, CCP new leaders Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang

will assume office.

The latest issue of Japan’s Shūkan Gendai magazine

quoted a source of CCP senior official.

He mentioned an old Chinese saying,

“A new official applies strict measures.”

The informant said that the Xi-Li administration will follow

their predecessors to initiate three major new polices.

Ten years ago when taking office, Hu Jintao and

Wen Jiabao put forth three new polices.

Those were “combating SARS, holding Six-Party Talks,

and and coping with the war in Iraq.”

So, under the reign of Xi-Li, retaking the Diaoyu

(Senkaku) Islands is likely to be listed as one new policy, said the Japanese magazine article.

According to the CCP senior official, Xi Jinping vigorously

promoted Sino-Taiwan free trade agreement in 2010.

Xi’s next step may probably be to cooperate with Taiwan

to “recapture” the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.

On February 15, three Chinese ocean surveillance ships

re-entered the Diaoyu Islands territorial waters.

The same day, China’s Oceanic Administration declared that

the Chinese ships will continue to be on duty.

Will tensions over the Diaoyu Islands escalate and

cause a Sino-Japanese war?

Reportedly, the U.S. has repeatedly stated that Japan’s

current governance of the Diaoyu Islands must be respected.

The U.S-Japan security treaty covers protection of

the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands.

Therefore, once the CCP takes action,

that will inevitably drag in the U.S..

Critic Wu Fan says that the U.S. attitude towards the CCP

is getting tougher.

Wu Fan: “The CCP will see the U.S. stance before

taking actions. Now the U.S. takes a very tough attitude.

The CCP has integrated cyber warfare in its actions

on the Diaoyu Islands.

It aims to pressure the U.S.,

while now the U.S. turns to fight back.”

Media analyzed that “combating Japan” is a tactic used by

the CCP leadership to divert attention from domestic conflicts and to rally popular support.

Li Shanjian, an independent commentator, says that

Xi Jinping isn’t really interested in the issue of territory.

The focal point that Xi considers is China’s politics.

Li Shanjian: “On one hand,

no CCP members believe in its ideology.

So the CCP uses nationalism to maintain its rule and

to bolster cohesion within the Party,

the real reason behind its actions on the issue.

But it dares not overdo it, as losing control will cause

negative impact on its rule.”

Wu Fan: “I think that by stirring up public national sentiment,

the CCP tries to cement its rule and to confront the U.S. and Japan.

But it controls the temperature below boiling point.

I think this is the most favorable situation to Xi Jinping,

not staging a real war, but adding wood to make a fire.

He uses this public sentiment to divert and downplay

from social contradictions. But social conflict may finally erupt.

Today, who can stop Chinese citizens’ venting of

their sentiments?”

Wu Fan adds that now it’s at a cyber-war stage,

not actual physical combat.

But if the cyber-war continues, a real war will be staged

one day. He speculates that Xi Jinping intends to drag in Russia.

This is because Xi has chosen Russia as his first

international trip as new state president.

Li Shanjian says that for Xi Jinping, nationalism is the only

card to play to distract popular discontent away from the regime’s corruption and other issues.

Li Shanjian: “After causing so much turmoil organized

in the name of nationalism,

those Chinese who truly care about the Chinese territory

have come to see the CCP’s true face.

That is, it has never really taken action in practice to

regain territory.

Certainly, when more people come to understand the truth,

the CCP’s game will be over.”

Li Shanjian indicates that over the years, corruption and the

combat effectiveness of the CCP military has been a hot topic.

However, during a real war, who will be the army’s target?

——it’s hard to draw a conclusion now!