【新唐人2012年11月15日訊】有關中共政治局常委席位到底是7人還是9人，一直保持神秘。而中共中央委員會委員名單則是十八大閉幕會後8個小時，也就是在北京時間14號晚上6點，才一見天日。至於新的常委人數仍然是個謎。外界認為，未來的中國可能會出現權力真空期，給民間政治勢力帶來新的希望。

自從中共中央取消主席和副主席制，代之以總書記負責的集體領導制之後，中央政治局常委就變成中共最核心的領導集體。中共中央政治局常委在實施集體領導制後，少則5位，多則9位。大部分時期是7位，中共十六大時，江澤民為了維持對法輪功的鎮壓，把宣傳部部長和政法委書記也塞進常委，造成常委人數增加到9人。

今年一月，中共十八大人事開始籌備時，就傳出政治局常委由9席減到7席。但是到大會召開前夕，北京突然再度傳出常委仍保持9席，以保黨內大團結。

時政評論家藍述認為，中共體制是造成社會問題的根本原因，而十八大上卻把維持中共統治，當成解決中國一切問題的前提和解決問題的目標。但是，互相博弈的任何一方，都拿不出令人信服的方案來治理中國，也就造成人事問題無法解決。

藍述：「因為各方都想，既保證自己的利益，又能夠讓中共繼續存在下去，但是任何一方，又沒有辦法提出一條中國社會和中共所面臨的問題，這麼一條能夠解決問題的方法。另外一條，各方之間的利益沒有辦法達到妥協，這兩種情況下，大家就變成了一團混戰了，混戰的結果就是：人事問題遲遲不能塵埃落定。」

藍述表示，中共面臨著它建黨以來最深刻的政治危機，任何時刻都可能分崩離析。

藍述：「這樣互相之間在利益上尖銳的衝突，很有可能一夜之間就讓中共分崩離析。當然還有可能是，最後中共各派勉勉強強達到一個勉強的平衡，選出下一代的領導人。但是這個領導人不論選出來誰，新一代的領導人是沒有辦法讓中共在未來，能夠繼續維持中國社會的穩定的，因為他解決不了中國社會目前所面臨的問題。」

79年大陸「民主牆」創辦人之一的蔡桂華指出，中共常委人數最後時刻還在一會兒7人，一會兒9人，說明中共內部權勢鬥爭非常激烈。

79年大陸「民主牆」創辦人之一蔡桂華: 「 說明裡面權勢鬥爭還是不平靜，權力的分配說明裡面的衝突很厲害，並不是說下一屆的習、李主持這個政治舞臺的話，他就一定會像鄧小平那個一言九鼎，可能這一屆的政府比前一屆政府更會弱化一點，權勢下面的暗潮洶湧，各派互相牽扯、牽制，然後在暗下做亂。」

蔡桂華說，當年他們搞民主運動時，也是鄧小平的改革派和華國鋒之間的鬥爭非常激烈，民間才有了政治空間。

蔡桂華: 「就從現在常委人數來說，都沒有確定下來，還在一會兒7常委一會兒9常委，就可想而知，下一屆當政者面臨壟斷權力是多麼艱難，這種結果可能就會…政治權勢裡面出現真空狀態…中共的崩裂裂痕越大，對中國應該說是越有利。反過來說，都是專制鐵板一塊的話，對老百姓來說應該是個災難。」

歷經中共高層不同門派人事交鋒卡位，各派不斷放風，直到最後關頭政治老人們紛紛登場現身，中共十八大權力重組過程變得極度複雜，最終政治局常委誰進、誰出﹖變得更為關鍵。

怎樣駕馭中共這個已經日暮途窮的政權﹖藍述指出，中共各派利益集團在利益上互相激烈交鋒、互相爭奪的時候，很難達成一個共識。

採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/李月

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Number Of Standing Committee Seats Shows The Secret

The 18th Congress of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is nearly finished.However, it is still unclear if the number of Politburo members will be seven or nine.

Outsiders believe that in future China may experience a time without a powerful top leader.This situation may bring hope for the civil political force.

Since the presidency of China has ceased,the CCP General Secretary becomes the top leader. So the Politburo Standing Committee has gained central power.

The politburo was composed of five to nine seats in the past. The Seven seats is the most seats in the CCP history. At the 16th Party Congress, to further suppress Falun Gong, Jiang Zemin added two extra seats. One for Minister of Propaganda and one for the Secretary of Political and Legislative Affairs Committee (PLAC). This is how seats at the Standing Committee increased to nine.

In January 2012, during preparations for the 18th Party Congress rumors spread that the seats of PLAC will reduce to seven. However, new rumors spread right before the 18th Party Congress: PLAC seats would remain as nine to ensure great unity of the CCP.

Lan Shu, the Current Affairs Commentator believes the CCP is the leading cause for the social conflict. During the 18th Party Congress, the CCP said to maintain

it』s rule is the first condition to solve all the problems. However, neither side can show the convincible strategy to operate the country. Which caused the personnel issue to remain unresolved.

Lan Shu: “Because every side wants to ensure their own gain they need to make sure the CCP survives. However, none of them can find a solution to resolve the

social conflict and problems that the CCP encountered. There is also no way to reach a compromise regarding their gain. This caused chaotic struggle so the personnel issue isn』t resolved.”

Lan Shu said that the CCP faces the most dangerous political crisis in history. It can collapse at any time.

Lan Shu: “Its conflict over their gain could be the leading cause of the CCP』s collapse overnight. Another possibility is, finally, each CCP faction forcibly

reaches a balance to choose the next top leader. No matter who has been chosen, the new leader has no way to support the CCP in the future to maintain social “stability.” As he won』t be able to resolve the social conflict at present.”

Cai Guihua, founder of Democracy Wall points out that the PLAC seat number is still uncertain even at the last minute. It indicates the internal party struggle has intensified greatly.

Cai Guihua: “It shows the internal struggling is still there. The power structure indicates intensifying internal conflict. It doesn』t mean that if Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang rule China, they would have the similar influence as Deng Xiaoping. Maybe the new leadership has less strength than the last one.

As the struggle behind the power increases,they influence each other, making trouble.”

Cai Guihua said that when they started democracy movement Deng Xiaoping』s reform faction struggled with Hua Guofeng. So the civil society had a political chance to change.

Cai Guihua: “Talking about the numbers of the seats of Standing Committee, it is still unconfirmed. It changes from seven to nine, and back again. A move that shows the next leadership faces difficult times. This stems from the political power force being in poor condition. The more the large crack in the CCP increases, the better it is for China. If they are all dictators, it』s a disaster for Chinese.”

In their history, they experienced the CCP top level struggling for the personnel, then spreading rumors. When the senior figures appeared, it makes the 18th Party Congress power transition much more complicated. Who will now take seat in PLAC becomes a critical point.

How to run the hopeless CCP continuously?

Lan Shu said that the CCP』s different interests groups』 power struggles makes it hard to reach a consensus.