【新唐人2012年11月14日訊】1986年9月，台灣「民主進步黨」在臺北宣佈成立，當時的中華民國總統蔣經國不但沒有鎮壓，而且默許它的存在。反對黨的成立，被視為台灣民主轉型的開端。而有評論認為，那些主張中國共產黨漸進改革的人士，實際上是將中國的「民主轉型」推遲到了無限期的未來。今天，中國是否已經走到了應該超越含糊不清的所謂「政治體制改革」，而明確要求「民主轉型」時機呢?請看以下的分析報導。

在中共當局看來，社會主義的經濟制度、政治制度是不能改的，能改的只是某些方式、方法，所以，他們使用了「經濟體制改革」和「政治體制改革」來表述體制轉型。

旅美法律學者王天成，12號在「英國廣播公司（BBC）」的「點評中國」欄目發表文章，他認為，「快速的經濟增長至今是共產黨統治的最重要的合法性來源，但是每年兩位數增長的好時光似乎已經一去不返。人們有一種強烈的擔憂，中國的經濟危機正在來臨。」而「民間要求對政改的期盼、呼聲比以往任何時候都高」。

王天成指出，判斷中國民主變革的關鍵是看能否實現結社自由，允許獨立政黨存在。而「一個明顯的道理是，如果連開放黨禁、和全國大選的要求都不提出來，那些重大的變革更加不可能發生。由於不要求儘快開放黨禁、和全國大選，他們所主張的漸進主義，實際上將民主轉型推遲到了無限期的未來。」

旅美中國民運人士瀋源﹕「還是在那裏希望，寄希望於中共裡面有明智人物出來，推動一個自上而下的政治改革，胡錦濤的這次政治報告，就給我們打消了這個東西。開放黨禁以後，就會有各種思想，就會蓬勃的發展起來，最終就凝聚在民主自由這一重心上面。」

政論家、《中國事務》雜誌總編伍凡也對《新唐人》表示，共產黨滅亡是必然的，會有一個新的力量取代它。

《中國事務》雜誌總編伍凡﹕「如果它（中共）開放黨禁、報禁，一下子我看成百上千的組織都可以出來，因為各階層都有自己的訴求，各個階層就有它的組織，實際上中國已經有反對派，不過不允許公開活動。看看俄國、東歐，這些經歷過共產主義統治的國家，不都是有新的力量來代替嗎?」

那麼，中國為甚麼不可以呢?

瀋源﹕「每個人都知道這三個東西——（開放）黨禁、報禁、民主選舉，它是不可能（在中國）存在。一個數字——200個家族，掌握了中國的200個企業，你說這些人，他怎麼能夠說我們拱手把這些權力和財富交出來呢?他不可能的嘛!是他們所謂形成的太子黨，這些紅二代已經盤根錯節在那裏。」

王天成的評論還指出，「不存在替代性政黨，正是一黨專製造成的結果。」而「開放黨禁是民主轉型的起始階段——自由化的核心」。可是，獨掌權柄已經60多年的共產黨，是否會和其他政黨平等競選呢﹖他呼籲中共「直面開放黨禁的問題，而不是迴避」。

伍凡﹕「因為共產黨他們害怕他們的利益損害，特別是現在是權力和資本結合在一起，只有它今後把門打開了，他願意說，我願意開放報禁、黨禁了，像蔣經國那樣，國民黨允許民進黨生存，允許民進黨發展，那麼我們才講說，共產黨你真的改變了，要不然說，等你死了，別的黨才能夠出來競爭﹗」

一名讀者反饋說，患有癌症晚期的中共不願意動手術，害怕一動手術就一命嗚呼，現在只是一個「拖」字而言。

而旅美中國民運人士瀋源則表示，中國人民的前途就是﹕推翻共產黨，解體共產黨。

採訪/田淨 編輯/周平 後製/鍾元

Transition to Democracy Instead of Political Reform

In September 1986 Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party

was founded in Taipei.

The Republic of China (ROC) President Chiang Ching-kuo,

did not repress the party, and acquiesced in its presence.

The establishment of an opposition party is regarded

as the beginning of democratic transition in Taiwan.

Experts think those who advocate gradual reform of CCP

(Chinese Communist Party) are in fact postponing China’s “democratic transition" indefinitely.

Should China go beyond the ambiguous “political reform,"

and explicitly require the “transition to democracy?”

CCP thinks the socialist economic and political systems

cannot change. Only some approaches can be changed.

Therefore they use the terms “Economic System Reform,”

and “Political System Reform” for system transition.

U.S.’ Law Scholar Wang Tiancheng published an article

on BBC’s Comment on China column on November 12.

He believes that, “The rapid economic growth so far

is the most important source of legitimacy of the CCP.

But the days of double-digit growth seem to have passed.

People have a strong concern that economic crisis is coming."

Furthermore, the Scholar states, that

“People’s voices for political reform are higher than ever."

Wang Tiancheng points out, the key indicator for democratic

change in China are freedom of association and pluralism.

“It is obvious that if political parties and national elections

are not allowed, significant change is unlikely to occur.

Those who advocate gradual reforms instead of permission

for political parties and national election actually postpone democratic transition to an indefinite future."

Shen Yuan, Pro-democracy activists, residing in the U.S.:

“They still hope some sensible people from the CCP would promote a top-down political reform.

Hu’s political report dispelled this hope.

Permitting political parties will promote vigorous thoughts,

and ultimately gather around democracy and freedom.”

Wu Fan, political analyst and China Affairs editor-in-chief,

told NTD, CCP will collapse and a new force will replace it.

Wu Fan: “If it (CCP) lifts its’ political parties and media ban,

all of a sudden thousands of organizations will show up, as each class has its own demands and organizations.

In fact, there are already opposition groups in China.

But they are not allowed to have public activities.

Ex-communist countries like Russia and the Eastern Bloc

all had new forces to replace them.”

Then why this cannot happen in China, people ask?

Shen Yuan: “Everyone knows of the three impossible things:

to lift the ban on political parties, media, and free elections.

China’s 200 enterprises are controlled by 200 families.

How would they hand over their power and wealth?

These are the so-called “princelings,”

who are deeply-rooted.”

Wang Tianchen also points out: “The issue that no party

can replace the CCP is the result of one-party dictatorship.”

“Lifting the ban on political parties is the beginning

of a democratic transition – the key to freedom.”

However, the CCP has ruled the country for over 60 years.

Will it compete fairly with other parties?

Wang appeals to the CCP,

to “Face the issue of lifting the bans.”

Wu Fan: “Because the CCP is afraid of losing its gains.

They combine power with profits.

We can see it changing in the future only after opening

the door and allowing political parties and freedom of speech.

Like what Jiang Ching-kuo did in Taiwan –

to allow the Democratic Progressive Party to develop.

Otherwise we have to wait until it dies.”

A reader commented that CCP is like a dying cancer’ patient,

who does not want to have an operation.

So it only wants to “prolong” its life.

Shen Yuan thinks, the Chinese people will have a future,

only if they overthrow and disintegrate the CCP.