【新唐人2012年9月15日訊】在過去近兩週時間內，全球最「紅」的政治人物，當屬中共副主席習近平。目前，全球都在「找」習近平。雖然有多種猜測傳聞，但事實就是習近平一直「無法露面」。到底習近平還能不能接班？18大人事安排是否破局？18大是否還能開得成？這一切，攪得中共高層心慌意亂。
9月1號後，內定為下任中共總書記的習近平沒有再露面，引起了外界極大關注。中共外交部發言人不得不連續四天，面對記者在這個問題上的追問，但是發言人都沒有提供任何新的說法。所以，各界都在問：習近平到底要不要出來？如果他不出來，中共18大還開不開?
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席張健認為，如果不出現大的突發政治事件的話，18大很可能會照開。
「中國民主黨全委會美國委員會」主席 張健：「我相信它（18大）還會繼續進行，因為當一個政權即便（走向）末路的時候，即將走向崩潰邊緣的時候，它還會完成。對外的宣傳也一定會開成一個『勝利的』、『圓滿的』、『團結的』大會，這是他們一貫的基調。」
對於習近平近來沒有公開露面一事，外界有多種傳聞。有說他背部受傷、車禍、被暗殺、中風、心臟病發等。也有消息說，他患了肝腫瘤，接受手術。
不過，近期也有傳言說，習近平一切都好，身體健康。
張健分析，在目前這個關鍵時刻，習近平和全世界媒體「躲貓貓」，如果不是身體原因，就是他本人遇到了很大的麻煩。但現在來看，中共高層沒有異動，他還是會繼承中共掌門人的位置。因此，張健認為，習很可能是身體上的問題。
張健：「其實習近平要得到國內大多數人的支持，太子黨，左派，右派，團派，各種派別他都得要拉攏到身邊，同時他也必須獲得國際力量的支持，這些民主國家還認為他是有能力將中國在亞太地區繼續保持在一個穩定，維持經濟高增長，來和西方民主國家在貿易上、等等這些方面進行交易。如果說這個人物，在這麼關鍵時刻，放棄了所有關鍵點的話，我不相信他是（平安無恙的）。」
時事評論員、中國問題專家張傑連認為，這件事情炒的沸沸揚揚，最後直接影響到中共18大的權力交接。實際上都是因為中共這種專制、不透明的暗箱操作。
不過，張健指出，不需要對18大進行過多的猜測。因為不管它開成開不成，都難以阻擋中共的倒臺。
張健：「18大也好，多少大也好，其實對真正關心中國未來的人，關心的問題應該是：中共甚麼時候倒臺，中共甚麼時候解體，甚麼時候中國是屬於中國人民的，我關心的是這些。不能因為它開不成18大，中國共產黨就不倒臺。」
而張傑連特別提到，目前中共高層所經歷的都是讓人意想不到的、具有戲劇性的情勢。中共在歷史上的角色，並不是外界能夠幫它推演的。
張傑連：「很有可能任何的一個外界因素的介入，整個的政權體系就會轟然垮塌。我想通過習近平這麼小小的一個傷病吧，就引起這麼大的劇烈的變動，那麼同樣中共18大的後續啊，在我看來，實際上後面就是走向一種潰敗，整體上這個體制就要垮臺，中國就將迎來沒有共產黨的新中國。」
今年以來，先後發生的王立軍、薄熙來事件，和習近平的神秘失蹤，不僅衝擊了當局所謂的 「政局穩定」，而且對中共暗箱操作的整個體制，提出了無情拷問。中國局勢風雲莫測，可以說是前所未有的動盪。
採訪/朱智善 編輯/王子琦 後製/王明宇
Xi Jinping’s Disappearance Creates Suspicion Regarding Whether the 18th National Congress will be held on Time
In the past two weeks, the CCP’s vice president Xi Jinping
has become the most “popular” politician globally.
Currently, all media in the world are looking for him.
There have been many different perspectives on the situation,
but the fact is there must be a reason for his disappearance.
Can Xi Jinping still succeed as the new CCP leader?
Will there be any significant changes in personnel
arrangements for the 18th National Congress?
Will the CCP be able to complete the 18th National Congress
as scheduled?
The doubt cast on the CCP leader group makes them
feel nervous and flustered.
Since September 1st, the next General Secretary of the CCP
Xi Jinping has disappeared in front of the public eye,
which has attracted great attention from outsiders.
The CCP’s spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has
had to answer questions about Xi for four successive days.
However, the spokesman didn’t provide any new information
in responding the reporters.
Under such a situation, the whole global society is asking
the same questions. Will Xi Jinping resurface?
If not, will the 18th National Congress be held on time?
Chairman of China Democratic Committee Zhang Jian believes
that the 18th National Congress will not be postponed unless some serious political situation breaks out.
Zhang Jian, Chairman of China Democratic Committee:
”I personally believe the (18th National) Congress will be held
because for a political regime nearing = its collapse,
it will try to accomplish whatever it can.
It will publicly claim that the Congress is a victorious,
successful and united one, as it always does.”
There have been many speculations for why Xi Jinping has
failed to appear in public these days, including back injury, traffic accident, assassination, stroke and heart attack.
Someone also said that Xi had received an operation
on a hepatic tumor.
Besides all those speculations, a latest rumor says that
there is no problem with Xi Jinping’s health.
According to Zhang Jian, Xi disappeared in front of the public
eye at such a critical moment.
He must have had a health problem or some other kind
of serious trouble.
However, there has been no significant move from
the CCP leadership group since Xi disappeared.
Perhaps he will still be the next CCP leader as expected.
From all the analysis above, Zhang Jian preferred to believe
that Xi had a health problem.
(Zhang Jian): ”Xi needs support from most domestic factions,
including princelings, leftists, rightists, and Communist Youth League faction, among others.
At the same time support from the global society is also
important to him
because the western countries play a key role in
maintaining stable development in China’s economy.
China needs communications with those countries
in trade and other fields.
The fact is that such an important person gives up all those
important tasks at a critical moment, so it is hard to believe that nothing has happened to him.”
Political commentator and expert on China issues
Zhang Jielian remarked that Xi’s disappearance had drawn
so much attention that it already threatened the power
transfer in the 18th National Congress.
In fact the trouble results from the non-transparent
dictatorship of the CCP.
Zhang Jian believes that, it is not necessary to make excessive
speculations on the 18th National Congress because the CCP will collapse anyway no matter how it goes.
Zhang Jian: ”To those who really care about China’s future,
the important question is when the CCP will collapse or
disintegrate, not how the 18th National Congress or any other CCP’s congress goes.
China will belong to the Chinese people once the CCP
regime reaches its end.
What I want to know is when this day will come.
The CCP’s fate won’t change even if the 18th National Congress
cannot be held as scheduled.”
Zhang Jielian mentioned that, what the CCP leaders have
experienced was always dramatic and difficult to predict in advance;
the role that the CCP plays in history is not
something that can be easily defined by outsiders.
(Zhang Jielian): ”Any interference from outside can possibly
lead to the final collapse of the whole CCP’s regime.
You see only Xi Jinping’s speculative injury has caused
such turbulence.
Similarly, all the news about the 18th National Congress
suggests the fact that the regime is going toward its disintegration.
China will embrace a future without the CCP’s governance.”
In 2012, both Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai event and Xi Jinping』s
mysterious disappearance have blown away the CCP’s so-called political stability.
Furthermore, both events seriously question the nature
of the CCP’s non-transparent regime.
This unexpected situation changes suggest the advent
of unprecedented turbulence in China.