【新唐人2012年9月15日訊】「釣魚島主權之爭」出現新的動態。14號，中國6艘海監船抵達釣魚島海域，對釣魚島及附屬島嶼附近海域進行維權巡航。與此同時，日本海上保安廳派出大批巡視船，並且出動多架飛機，在現場監控中國海監船。看局勢，外界認為，中日之間真的要開戰交火了。

中共喉舌《新華社》報導說，中國6艘海監船組成兩個維權巡航編隊，9月14號6點多抵達釣魚島及附屬島嶼海域，進行維權巡航。

同一天，《日本新聞網》報導，據日本海上保安廳第11管區那霸海上保安本部發表的消息說，中國海監「51號」和「海監66號」船已經從釣魚島赤尾嶼的北側方向進入釣魚島海域﹔但日本海上保安廳也派出大批巡視船，並且出動多架飛機在現場監控中國海監船的行蹤。

時政評論專家伍凡認為，雖然中共派出海監船抵達釣魚島海域聲稱巡航，但是中共現在面臨的問題很多。

第一習近平到底要不要出來，他不出來，十八大還要不要開？這是中共最近面臨的政治上的難題﹔而經濟上，中國的經濟一直在下滑，8月份中央政府的稅收是負的，如果打仗，需要花大錢。

時政評論專家 伍凡： 「一個是打，一個是不打，維持目前局面，但是你要去管理，維護釣魚島的權益，現在正處在這種考慮的狀態。這個打，打贏了就好，可是打輸了你怎麼處理？所以這個棋，現在是一個關鍵的時候。」

伍凡指出，日本真的要跟中共打仗，還要看美國方面的態度。

伍凡： 「那麼其中有一個因素，那就要看美國人的態度，美國人是不是真的要介入，還是美國人是幫架。但是，不是真正出兵，不知道，不清楚。因為現在美國也遇到了相當多的困難。」

《世界新聞網》發表文章說，中日軍事上的仗不會打起來，但是經濟仗會打響。文章認為，中日間一旦打經濟仗，不要說誰吃虧，雙方受到的打擊將可能一樣大。

美國「南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院」教授謝田指出，中日兩方經濟上的依賴性不是對等的。日本實際上是提供資金和技術的一方，中國只不過是提供勞動力的一方，如果日本資金撤出的話，對中國經濟會有非常嚴重的影響。

美「南卡羅來納大學艾肯商學院」教授 謝田： 「但是對中國來說除了經濟上原因，中國還有政治上原因，日本的經濟如果受到影響，那反而會促進日本民間更加團結起來在政府周圍，另外想辦法度過難關。中國經濟如果受到影響的話，民眾的憤怒就會立刻推翻中共的政權。所以，中國（共）政府實際上在經濟和政治上有著雙重的擔憂。」

伍凡表示，現在中日之間的局面還很難預料，要看局勢發展。他認為，一件事就可以改變整個局面，像習近平「失蹤」多天，把整個中共的政治局面改變了。因此伍凡說，目前中國的政治局面還不穩定，中共冒然向日本開戰交火! 會「是個問號」。

採訪/林莉 編輯/唐睿 後製/蕭宇

Is a Sino-Japan War Imminent ?

New developments appeared in the territorial dispute over

the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands).

On September 14th, six Chinese patrol ships reportedly

cruised in the waters near the Diaoyu Islands.

Japan Coast Guard dispatched a number of patrol boats

and aircrafts to the scene, monitoring the situation.

Outside observers expect that a war could be made

between China and Japan.

Mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),

Xinhua News Agency, reported that on September 14th,

six Chinese patrol ships had arrived in waters near

the Diaoyu Islands to cruise for rights-defense.

The same day, Ribenxinwen.com quoted official news

of Japan’s Coast Guard, who said that

China’s two marine surveillance ships had entered

waters of Diaoyu Islands.

Many Japan Coast Guards ships and aircrafts were sent

to make the on-scene surveillance, said the news report.

Critic Wu Fan says, although outwardly the CCP sent

patrol ships to cruise the waters of the Diaoyu Islands,

the regime is now distracted by many other problems.

Firstly, whether Xi Jinping will show up or not ?

If not, whether the 18th Party Congress will be held?

This is a hard nut that the CCP has to crack now.

China’s economy keeps dropping.

The CCP central tax revenue was negative in August.

A ton of money would be needed if a war is waged.

Wu Fan: “Two options for the CCP: to wage a war or reverse.

Now it’s necessary to make a choice.

If it chooses to wage a war and win it, that’s good.

But what if it fails? And how will it handle the situation then?

So now it’s a critical moment.”

Fan Wu notes that Japan will rely on the U.S. stance

if it starts a war with the CCP regime.

Wu Fan: “One of factors is to see the U.S. attitude.

Whether the American would really intervene with it

by sending troops or not ? The answer is unknown yet.

The U.S. has also met with quite a few problems."

Worldjournal.com commented that an economic battle

instead of a military battle would be staged.

The commentary predicted that both China and Japan

would be equally hard hit in the economic battle.

Professor Xie Tian from University of South Carolina says,

the mutual economic dependency of both sides is not equal.

Japan provides capital and technology,

while China only offers the labor force.

Once Japan withdraws investments from China,

the latter would suffer overwhelmingly severe impacts.

Xie Tian: “Apart from economic reasons, there’re political

factors to be considered at the side of China.

Japan’s economic plight would only promote civilians』 unity

to seek ways pulling through the difficulties.

But in China, the CCP regime would face an overthrow

by civilians in fury.

So China (the CCP)’s regime now has concerns over

both economy and politics.”

Wu Fan thinks it is still hard to predict how the situation

develops between China and Japan.

He believes that any unexpected thing could change

the whole situation.

For example Xi Jinping “missing" for days has changed

the CCP’s political situation.

Wu Fan says China’s current political situation

is not stable yet.

Therefore, he raises doubts about the possibility that

the CCP would really go to war with Japan.