【新唐人2012年9月8日訊】最近，中國大陸的十八大「維穩」風吹向股票市場。據說，證監系統已經動員全方位的股市維穩工作。在目前中國經濟增速持續下滑﹔股市長期委靡不振、股市投資者信心不足情況下，當局的措施能起甚麼作用？有回春的契機嗎？

在週三兩市大盤低開後，滬指再創今年新低，量能仍然萎靡不振。而當天的報導說，A股跌跌不休，10日均線反壓，短期還有整固需求﹔大勢研判「市場情緒依然悲觀，短線2000點有待考驗」。

當晚中共喉舌《中國網》題為「證監會部署十八大維穩工作 要求確保市場穩定」的報導中說，日前，證券期貨監管系統，召開了維穩工作視頻會議，證監會主席郭樹清下達「維穩」動員令。

據報導，各地證監系統緊鑼密鼓展開相關工作﹔監管部門日前就股市現狀徵求業內意見，希望券商能找到「中國股市上漲的理由」﹔北京地區券商最近也不斷接到監管通知，要求研究市場走勢，並總結對當前市場的「積極觀點」。

在當局積極維穩佈局之下，7號午後，滬深股市指數果然呈現衝高小幅回落走勢。收盤後，滬指漲幅3.72%﹔深成漲幅5.08%。兩市成交量都是前一天的2倍多。

原「中國社科院金融發展室」主任、經濟學家易憲容指出，目前的問題在於，當局沒有提出振興股市的政策，而股市投資者長期以來都在虧損。

原「中國社科院金融發展室」主任易憲容：「主要還是，政府對股市操縱的太厲害，然後，政府既然可以操縱股市，它就可以通過政府對股市的操縱把利益輸送，幕後交易就太多。當然他短期搞幾天，對，有一點影響﹔但反彈，沒那麼容易。這投資者不會聽信他們說甚麼，都沒信心。一進去我就虧，我進去幹嘛？」

有報導說，歷史經驗指出，證監系統維穩不是「作文比賽」，過去曾2次醞釀出一波反彈行情。不難看出，意在吹捧。

但，旅美中國經濟學者，「普林斯頓大學」社會學博士程曉農分析，目前，中共十八大權力鬥爭激烈，遠遠超出一般百姓的想像﹔雙方恐怕關注的都是如何生死搏鬥，不太可能有精力關心股市問題。目前，證監會下達指令「維穩」，可以解讀為「推動股市」。

旅美中國經濟學者 程曉農：「但同樣可以有另外一種解讀，那就是怕股市崩盤。我認為是後一種，因為崩盤會造成股民的恐慌。中共現在希望十八大權力鬥爭關鍵時刻，不要再出現任何影響社會恐慌的因素，崩盤就是股民失去信心，拋盤了。中共並不是替股民著想，而是怕自己面子不好看。」

大陸滬指從1992年100點開始，到2004年約在1千點上下﹔然後，一年之間指數跳上2千點﹔到了07年指數瘋漲到7千點，之後崩盤回跌到2千點。程曉農指出，主要原因是，中共讓這些公司上市的主要目地，是圈小股東的錢﹔實際，上市公司的經營狀況普遍不良，多數公司不分紅。

程曉農：「所以，等於中共通過股市圈了大批的錢，但是嚴重傷害了小股民的利益。07年的股市暴漲有中共官方炒作的因素。當時把幾家大國有銀行，讓西方金融機構首先購買上市股票，拉抬股市吸引小股東進場以後，西方大公司再拋股，然後股市就暴跌。所以可以講，07年的股市暴漲本身是不正常的，中共的股市能維持2000點已經不錯了。」

滬深股市7號的價量齊漲，是利好消息嗎？

程曉農不認為。反之，他認為，中國目前全是利壞消息。因為大陸整個經濟進入衰退、經濟成長率下降、投資過剩、企業的資金周轉不靈、企業處在虧損邊緣。程曉農提醒股民，個別公司通過炒作，製造一點小幅度上漲的幻覺，不能作為判斷目前整個股市的根據。

採訪編輯/梁欣 後製/孫寧

China Stock Market Now Subjected to “Stability Preservation”

“Stability preservation” policies have now

been expanded to the Chinese stock market.

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)

has launched a full-scale deployment in the sector.

China is now seeing a declining economy, a long-term

weak stock market, and stock investors losing confidence.

Will this new measure taken by the Chinese Communist

Party (CCP) work? Will China’s stock market be revived?

On September 5, Shanghai stocks hit their lowest

point this year, and trading volumes remained weak.

Media reported the A-share index kept dropping that day,

Need 10 days to backup continuously and to fix in short term.

Industry analysts said, “The stock market remains pessimistic.

the short-term 2000 points will be tested.”

That evening, ‘china.com.cn’, a CCP website, reported

news assuring preserving the stability of the stock market.

Securities and futures management sectors were convened

to “maintain stability”, an order commanded by Guo Shuqing.

Guo is Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Media reported that Chinese regulators are now seeking

industrial solutions to boost the stock market.

They hope stock brokerage firms can find “the reasons

why China’s stock market is expected to rise”.

Beijing-based stock brokerage have constantly

been informed to analyze market movement.

They are required to summarize “positive views”

from the current stock market situation.

On September 7, under the official policy

of “stability preservation”, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index, began to rise slightly.

That day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.72%,

and the SZSE Component Index rose by 5.08%.

Both markets’ trading volumes doubled

compared with the previous day.

China’s economists Yi Xianrong remarks that

the main question is that the authorities haven’t proposed any policy on boosting the stock market.

For a long time, Chinese stock investors have made losses.

Yi Xianrong: “The main problem is that the government

have manipulated too much on the stock market.

This transfers benefits and give

rise to lots of backroom deals.

This technique can play a small role for several days,

but it won’t help to re-boost the whole market.

Stock investors aren’t blindly believing what official says.

They have all lost confidence now, so just wait and see.”

Chinese media said that experience from history proved that

the SFC’s stability maintenance was not an “essay contest".

News reports alleged that two predictions were made

in the past to created waves of bounces.

Cheng Xiaonong, US-based economic scholar, says

that CCP infighting ahead of the 18th Congress has intensified more than Chinese people can imagine.

Both sides are focusing on a life-or-death power struggle.

They are less likely to care about stock market issues.

Dr Cheng thinks the current SFC’s “stability preservation"

of the stock market can be seen as “propelling the market”.

Cheng Xiaonong: “There’s another understanding

to it. They fear a stock market crash.

I believe this the true reason, as the crash

can lead to panic amongst stock investors.

At such a critical moment during infighting, the regime

has been trying to prevent the occurrence of any turmoil.

The CCP is not actually considering stock investors,

but fearing the negative effect on its appearance.”

China’s stock index started at 100 points in 1992.

It reached around 1,000 points in 2004,

and jumped to 2,000 points within one year.

Until 2007, the stock index soared to 7,000 points,

but then later plummeted to 2,000 points.

Dr. Cheng Xiaonong explained the main reason behind it.

The CCP approval of companies to be listed

aimed to circle the money of the small shareholders.

In fact, these listed companies have

generally been in poor operation.

Most of them do not pay dividends, Dr. Cheng reveals.

Cheng Xiaonong: “That is to say, the CCP has circled

a huge amount of money through the stock market.

But that has seriously hurt the interests of small shareholders.

The stock market’s boom in 2007 has links to official hype.

Firstly, the regime used Western financial institutions

to buy listed stocks of large state-owned banks.

This lured minority shareholders to enter the stock market.

Western financial institutions sold stocks,

and the stock market thus plummeted.

So, the 2007 boom is unnatural. 2000 points would

be a good level for a stock market supervised by the CCP."

On September 7, trading volumes in both the Shanghai

and Shenzhen stock markets rose. Is this good news?

Cheng Xiaonong does not think so.

On the contrary, he believes that all news

released so far in China is unfavorable.

This is because the entire economy

in China has slowed down.

Its economic growth rate declined,

and investments are excessive.

Enterprises in China are facing insufficient cash flow

problems, and are on the brink of making a loss.

Cheng Xiaonong warns Chinese stock investors

that the stock index may exhibit a small rise,

but that is an illusion created by the hype from some

individual stock brokerage firms.

It cannot become the criteria for judging

the entire stock market movement.