【新唐人2012年8月16日訊】中共中央對外宣傳辦公室，8月14號舉行新聞發佈會，會議介紹了中共十八大代表的選舉情況，並公布了2270名代表的名單。但是，當被問及常委人數是9或7人時，中共中央組織部副部長回應：「不知道」。常委人數「9變7」一直被海外媒體所關注，有分析認為，「9變7」的「難產」，說明胡錦濤「陷入兩難」。
中共中央組織部副部長王京清，在新聞發佈會上說，中共十八大代表選舉工作，從去年10月開始部署，到今年7月已經順利完成。
當《華爾街日報》記者，問及有關中央政治局常委人數是否「9變7」時，王京清回應，政治局常委由中央委員會全體會議選舉產生，「中央政治局常委由多少人組成，我也不知道。」
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士、時政評論家李天笑表示，現在中共高層對常委「9變7」守口如瓶的主要原因是，高層權利博弈還在最後的較量中，一些利益上的交易還沒完成。
時政評論家 李天笑：「因為從最近的幾件事情可以看出來，一個就是溫家寶，受到毛左方面的人讓他辭職，溫家寶我們知道，在打薄的過程中，他是起主要的作用，第二個原因，就是薄熙來朝甚麼方向定罪，這個是一個很關鍵的問題。」
第三個決定因素，李天笑認為和政法委的「消權」有關係，但是不管怎樣，李天笑表示，「胡溫習」在處理薄熙來的問題上，通過打擊薄熙來，已取得了決定性的優勢，因此中共十八大常委人數，會按照他們的意志來定，「9變7」可能性是非常大的。
李天笑：「還有一個因素就是說，胡錦濤現在處在兩難的地步，他一方面要擊鼓傳花，他想在他傳位的時候，在他起一定影響作用的時候，中共不要在他手上垮掉，再一個他又想在常委中，保持他繼續的控制能力，這兩個東西，要同時做的話，在這個過程中就會出現一些比較複雜的情況。」
此外，時事評論員夏小強表示，由於中共一黨專制的特性，中共高層的政治運作一向是黑箱操作。
時事評論員 夏小強：「胡溫政府很有可能在十八大前，無法完成處理薄熙來和周永康的問題。那麼，這將會給習近平、李克強，新一屆政府帶來極大隱患，特別是他們不能公開，周永康、薄熙來政變謀反、迫害法輪功，以及活摘法輪功學員器官的罪行和內幕。」
夏小強認為，如果這些罪惡繼續隱藏下去，勢必給江澤民、周永康勢力的反撲留下機會，也給中共高層未來的形勢增加了很多變數。如何處理周永康以及他在中共內部的勢力，是新一屆領導人面對的難題。
與此同時，《華爾街日報》報導，在謀求社會穩定和領導層順利換屆的過程中，中國經濟諸多領域中，日益加劇的問題一直被掩蓋著，這些問題包括政府的腐敗，壞賬和結構失衡等，不過，新一屆政府最終總要接下這個爛攤子。
那麼，如何拯救這個爛攤子，對新一屆領導人來說，無疑是一個嚴峻的考驗。
李天笑：「十八大只是中共內部權鬥的一個反應，中共總的來說，他是走向崩潰的。他現在民心已經完全失去了，現在大量的黨員退黨，很多人對中共腐敗已經忍無可忍了。」
據了解，不只是大量的黨員選擇了拋棄中共——退黨，就連在中共所謂的改革開放中獲利的富豪們，已有16%移民海外，而44%正準備移民，他們同樣也選擇了「背棄中共」。
李天笑分析指出，備受中共摧殘的老百姓，更是對中共不抱任何幻想。他認為，在這種情況下，不管十八大怎麼開，人數由9人轉成7人，或者是由誰當選，都拯救不了中共必然滅亡的結局。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/王明宇
Hu Jintao in Dilemma
On August 14, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central
Committee Outreach Office held a press conference.
It explained the election situation
for the 18th National People』s Congress (NPC).
It also announced a list of 2,270 representatives.
The Vice Minister of the CCP Central Committee
Organization Department was asked whether there will be 7 or 9 Standing Committee members.
The Vice Minister responded, “I do not know".
International media are focusing on whether the
Standing Committee will reduce from 9 to 7 members.
Analysts believe the change from 9 to 7 is very hard,
and this represents a dilemma for Hu Jintao.
Vice Minister Wang Jingqing of the CCP Central Committee
Organization Department spoke in a news press conference.
Wang stated that the 18th NPC election had started last
October, and was successfully completed in July this year.
When a Wall Street Journal reporter asked if there will be
9 or 7 Politburo Standing Committee members,
Wang Jingqing responded that the Standing Committee
will be elected by the Central Committee plenary meeting.
“As for how many in the Politburo
Standing Committee, I do not know."
Dr. Li Tianxiao, expert and critic in political science
at Columbia University, U.S. commented.
The reason why the CCP leadership is not talking about
whether the Standing Committee members will change
from 9 to 7 is because the infighting on power among
the high levels of the CCP has not ended yet.
There are some transactions
of interests that are not completed.
Li Tianxiao: “We can tell from recent cases that Wen Jiabao
was asked to resign by the leftist faction.
Wen played an important role in overthrowing Bo Xilai.
What Bo Xilai will be convicted of is also a critical issue.”
Li Tianxiao also believes it has something to do with
reducing the power of the Politics and Law Committee.
By attacking Bo Xilai, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao
and Xi Jinping have gained a decisive advantage.
It is very possible the number of members in the 18th NPC
Standing Committee will be decided by them.
Li Tianxiao: “Another factor is that Hu Jintao is in a dilemma.
On the one hand, he has to
“pass the flower while the drum beats".
He did not want the CCP to collapse in his hands
while he is in power and still has some influence.
On the other hand, he wants to continue his control
of power within the Standing Committee.
If he did the two things together,
there will be some complications.”
Commentator Xia Xiaoqiang said that due to
the CCP one-party dictatorship, it has always been a hidden operation in politics.
Xia Xiaoqiang: “The Hu-Wen administration is unlikely to finish
dealing with Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang before 18th NPC.
It will bring great risks to the new
administration of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang.
This is especially if they cannot disclose the crimes
of Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai.
This crimes include conspiring to undertake a military coup,
being involved in the persecution of Falun Gong,
and organ harvesting from living Falun Gong practitioners.”
Xia Xiaoqiang believes that if these crimes continue
to be hidden,
Jiang Zemin and Zhou Yongkang』s faction
will be able to have a chance to counterattack.
It adds a lot of variables to the future
situation of the CCP leadership.
It is a difficult problem for the new leaders to decide how
to deal with Zhou Yongkang and his forces within the CCP.
The Wall Street Journal reported that in the process
of seeking social stability and a smooth change of leadership,
many economic issues are becoming more serious.
However, they continue to be covered up.
This includes government corruption,
bad debt and structural imbalances.
However, the new administration ultimately
has to take over this situation.
It is undoubtedly a severe test for the new leaders
to know how to deal with this situation.
Li Tianxiao: “The 18th NPC is a reflection of CCP infighting.
In general, the CCP is going to collapse.
It (CCP) has already lost people』s minds and hearts.
Now many members have quit the CCP.
Many can no longer tolerate the corruption in the CCP."
Not only are a large number of CCP members
abandoning and quitting the CCP.
Wealthy people who emerged during the reform and opening
of the CCP are also choosing to 『abandon the CCP』.
16% have moved overseas,
and another 44% are ready to move.
Li Tianxiao analyzed and highlighted that Chinese people
who have always been suppressed by the CCP have given up any illusions towards the CCP.
So in this circumstance, no matter how the 18th NPC is held,
whether the standing committee members are 9 or 7,
or whoever is elected, the demise of the CCP』s is inevitable.