【新唐人2012年6月7日訊】有消息說，即將於今年下半年召開的中共十八大，由於軍隊的高層、軍方代表，還有眾多將領期望能夠分享政治局常委名額，並獲得更多委員名額，而出現了新的不穩定因素。

消息說，幾大軍區負責人、四兵種和四大部負責人，期望本屆全代會可以給軍方一個政治局常委名額，和數個委員名額。有的將領甚至提出，如果本屆全代會還是選出9名常委，軍方應該佔2個名額。而政治局委員，軍方應佔5個名額。將領們的普遍意見認為，軍方佔1個常委名額、3個委員名額較為現實，其中，1個委員名額應該給武警部隊。

中共一向強調「黨指揮槍」，只有抓住軍權，才能抓住黨權和政權。中共在1949年建政後，軍委主席一職始終都是黨的第一把手（如:毛澤東、華國鋒、江澤民），或者是實際上的第一把手（如:鄧小平）兼任。在這次由薄熙來下臺而引發中共前所未有的內鬥中，胡錦濤也是牢牢抓住軍隊，再三強調要軍隊「聽從黨中央指揮」。

中共對「槍桿子」另一種形式的掌控，也表現在限制軍方在政權高層的名額。自90年代以來，除劉華清因89年鎮壓六四學潮擔任過短暫的5年常委之外，軍方高層只在政治局委員裡面佔兩個名額。十七大政治局委員現任25人中，軍方僅有郭伯雄和徐才厚，排名還都在20名之後。政治局常委沒有軍隊的份。武警部隊連政治局委員的名額都沒有。

時事評論家橫河認為，在正常國家，不存在任何一個政黨凌駕於政府之上，因此軍隊也不需要進入任何黨的機構爭權，但是中共一直不允許民選政府，實行一黨獨裁。

橫河：「共產黨本身就是權力過大，所以軍隊要求在黨內有更多的發言權，這個要求實際上一直是有的。如果說他們今年真的提出這個要求，而且很強烈的話，那只能說明中共現在對軍隊的依賴性越來越強，就說明它的統治能力越來越低。」

《博訊網》報導說，軍方高層這次呼聲較往屆明顯強烈，如果這次全代會沒有尊重軍方意見，軍方名額依然如故，恐會導致軍方強烈不滿，而造成政權不穩。

目前胡，溫正和掌握著武警公安體系的政法委書記周永康兩派對峙，此刻軍方的支持可以說至關重要，軍方提出「入常」是否可能因此而獲得胡、溫，或是習近平的支持呢？

美國「喬治梅森大學」客座教授章天亮認為，胡錦濤和習近平都屬於文官，因此在允許軍方高層入常的考量上可能趨於保守。

章天亮：「如果說十八大之後，有一個軍隊的人進常委的話，對於習近平來說就是一個非常大的威脅。因為，習近平並不是一個強權人物，中共內部的話，這種都是憑實力說話的，就是包括權力之間的爭奪。那習近平他本身又沒有一個軍方的背景，他是控制不了軍隊的人的。」

如果這次軍方高層真能佔據1到2個常委名額，對今後的局勢會產生甚麼影響？

章天亮分析，軍方的意見和政治局常委級別的意見經常不一致，這從中共近期和周邊國家發生問題時，軍方的發聲可以看出。

章天亮：「如果一旦軍方人進入政治局常委之後，那麼共產黨的分裂幾乎是肯定的。或者是中國就變成軍人獨裁，就是誰實力大誰就能夠獨裁，或者，它會帶來共產黨的進一步分裂。」

橫河認為，軍方如果入常，甚至可能對周邊國家也帶來影響。

橫河：「常委和政治局裡面如果過多的軍人進去以後，實際上只能反映，這個黨的執政能力下降，或者是它的危機加重。而且，軍隊本來就是一個暴力集團，就是一個武裝集團，所以它更有可能對內的暴力鎮壓，對外的發動戰爭，這些可能性都會增大。」

近來，消息人士向海外媒體透露，十八大常委將由9人變為7人，也就是廢掉江澤民在十六大退位時，為了控權增加的「政法委」與「文宣」兩名常委。「人數的減少」意味著「權力的集中」，軍方在此時提出向文官「分權」，將會對十八大產生甚麼樣的影響，還有待觀察。

採訪/梁欣 編輯/尚燕 後製/黎安安

Will the military make it into the 18th National Congress?

It is said that due to high military officials, representatives,

and generals expecting to share seats in Politburo Standing Committee

in order to get more seats in the Central Committee,

new instability has emerged for the upcoming 18th National Congress of the CCP.

It is said that commanders in charge of several major military

regions, four arms, and four headquarters expect

the military will gain a seat in the Politburo Standing

Committee, and several seats in the Central Committee.

Some generals even suggested that if the Standing Committee

remains at nine this year, the military should occupy two seats.

Military should also take five seats in the Central Committee.

The military in general believes that it’s practical for armed

forces to take one seat in the Standing Committee, and three seats in Central Committee.

Meanwhile, one Central Committee seat should be given

to the Armed Police Force.

The CCP has always stressed that the “Party commands

the gun."

Only by seizing military power will the party power

and political power be seized.

After the CCP established its regime in 1949, the post

of Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman has always been the party’s leader

such as Mao Zedong, Hua Guofeng, Jiang Zemin,

or concurrently run by the governmental leader, such as Deng Xiaoping.

With the unprecedented infighting triggered by the fall of

Bo Xilai, Hu Jintao has a firm grasp of the army and

has repeatedly stressed that

the army “obey the command of the central CCP."

CCP also controls the armed forces via limiting military seats

in the regime.

Since the 1990s, Liu Huaqing was the only military official

who served the Standing Committee for a brief five years

because of the repression of June 4 student protests in 1989;

the senior military only accounted for two seats in the Politburo Central Committee.

Among the current 25 member Central Committee,

only Guo Boxiong and Xu Caihou are from the military with the ranking behind 20.

There is no military personnel in

the Politburo Standing Committee.

Armed Police Forces have no seats

in the Politburo Central Committee.

Commentator Hen He indicates that in a normal country,

no individual party is above the government, and there’s no

need for the military to enter a party’s organization.

But the CCP would not allow a democratically elected

government, and has implemented the one-party dictatorship.

Hen He:"The Communist Party itself has too much power

and therefore, the armed forces demand a greater say in the party, this request has always existed.

If they really made this request strongly this year, it only shows

that the CCP is now becoming increasingly dependent on the army and its ability to govern is decreasing."

The Boxun Network reported that the senior military voices

this time were significantly strong compared to previous years.

If this National Congress session shows no respect

for the opinions of military and leaves the same quota

for the military, it might lead to strong dissatisfaction

in the military and cause instability in the regime.

During the confrontation between Hu-Wen and Zhou Yongkang

who control the Armed Police and Politics and Law Committee.

Thus, military support at the moment is essential.

Will Hu-Wen or Xi Jinping support the military’s proposal

to enter the Standing Committee?

George Mason University Visiting Professor Zhang Tianliang

believes that Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping are both at the civil service,

and therefore may be more conservative in considering

a Standing Committee seat to the military.

Zhang Tianliang: “An army personnel entering the Standing

Committee after the 18th National Congress will be a big threat to Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping is not a powerful figure.

Within the Communist Party, power speaks, even during

the power struggle.

Xi Jinping does not have a military background,

and he won’t be able to control the army."

If the senior military can really occupy one or two Standing

Committee seats, what affect would it have on the future?

。

Zhang Tianliang analyzes that the military and

the Politburo Standing Committee often hold different views.

The military opinion showed itself during recent interactions

between the CCP and the neighboring countries.

Zhang Tianliang: “Once the military enters the Politburo

Standing Committee, a split in the CCP is almost certain.

Maybe China will become a military dictatorship,

whichever holds more power will dictate.

Or it will bring further division in the Communist Party."

Hen He believes that a military Standing Committee

may even affect neighboring countries.

Hen He: “Too many military members in the Standing

Committee and Political Bureau only,

in fact, reflects the decreased capability of the party

and the aggravated crisis.

The army has always been a violent group, an armed group,

so it is possible for more domestic violence, repression,

plus war against foreign countries. These possibilities will increase."

Recently, sources disclosed to the foreign media that the 18th

National Congress Standing Committee will drop to seven from nine people.

That is to abolish the two Standing Committee seats elected

from “Political Committee" and “propaganda"

which were added to secure Jiang Zemin』s power

when he abdicated at the 16th National Congress.

A decrease in the number of seats means the concentration

of power.

The impact of military』s request of “decentralization"

at the 18th National Congress remains to be seen.