【新唐人2011年11月12日訊】南中國海局勢最近又出現緊張的態勢，南海周邊國家的海上糾紛依然不斷。南中國海會不會突然爆發軍事衝突，再次成為海內外關注的焦點。對於近期中國舉行部隊演習，日本也有防範演習等，外界擔憂，南中國海將突然爆發軍事衝突。
南海海上爭端，中國內部主戰的聲音越來越強，中國的外交政策是不是會有所變化，成為海內外關注的焦點。
中共喉舌《人民日報》旗下的《環球時報》發表社論表示，海上爭端國當前製造的麻煩，是在不斷消耗中國國內的政治團結。但中國也不能只會談判，必要時應當「殺一儆百」。
評論員文昭表示，對中共來講，當前第一優先的是確保「十八大」權力交接的順利進行，現在中共是「求穩懼變」的時刻。
文昭：「從中共決策層的心態來講，它不希望在這個權力交接時發生太重大變化的因素，這樣會使它的權力交接的過程變得比較困難，變得不可預測，更多風險，它不希望這樣。」
11月6號，日本海上保安廳在長崎外海逮捕了中國漁船船長張天雄。長崎地檢以47歲的張天雄違反日本《漁業法》（逃避登船檢查）提出簡易起訴，長崎簡易法院命令張天雄繳納30萬日元的罰金。張天雄在繳付罰金後，9號下午在日本巡邏船的伴隨下駛離了長崎港。
文昭表示，南海小摩擦一直存在，但是現在，南海周邊的一些小國，並不想主動挑釁中國大陸。
評論員文昭：「現在南海衝突主導權其實是在中國大陸這一邊，它只要是不去破壞這個現狀的話，就是說別人都已經佔領的地方啊，它不去想改變這個現狀的話，這個衝突就不會升級。」
不過，最近大陸解放軍卻進行了一系列軍事演習。11月10號，廣州軍區舉行罕見規模軍演，中南五省區同時開打。儘管軍方沒有解釋演習目地，但觀察人士很容易從演習的內容、地點、時機等聯想到中共在南海面臨的形勢。
另外，最近中共在炮兵部隊也有動作，中共把原炮兵指揮學院與原炮兵學院南京分院合併，成立副軍級的南京炮兵學院。同時，今年中共還推出優惠政策，吸引大學生參軍，並且放寬新兵入伍條件。
文昭：「它的軍事力量目前還不足以，我是覺得它軍隊還不足以應付一個很嚴重的政治後果。就是說能打贏是沒問題的，但是你打過之後，出現嚴重的這種政治後果，它會帶來中國周邊的安全環境急劇的變化。」
對於中共在南海主權爭端，所進行的一系列動作已經引起了外界和鄰國的關注。《法國國際廣播電臺》認為，如果南海周邊國家在海上的摩擦不加收斂，一些糾紛頻繁的海域突然爆發軍事衝突是遲早的事。
另外，日本《讀賣新聞》報導，日本為防中共突襲，預定11月10號起舉行大型軍演。並首次自北海道調配陸上自衞隊最精銳的第7師團，以及最先進的90式坦克等，趕往日本最南端的九州參演。日本傳媒表示，這是日本在去年修訂防禦大綱中，明確將中共列為「最大假想敵」後的大型軍演。
與此同時，日本和韓國12號將在對馬海峽舉行聯合軍演，預計共有約1千名士兵參加，同樣針對中共為假想敵。此外，隸屬美國國會的美中經濟及安全檢討委員會，將於16號建議國會立法，要求行政部門接受台灣採購F-16C/D戰機。
另據報導，今年東亞峰會將於11月19號在印度尼西亞召開。美、俄兩國將首次作為成員國與會。預計峰會繞不開南中國海主權爭端。
新唐人記者李靜、唐睿、王明宇採訪報導。
Sudden outbreak of military conflict over South China Sea?
A renewal of the tense situation recently escalated in the South China Sea region.
Territorial disputes between neighboring countries
still continue to develop. Will the region see a sudden outbreak of military conflict? This question once again became a focus of attention in China and overseas. Recent military exercises were undertaken in China,
with preventative exercises in Japan. There are concerns about a possible sudden outbreak of
military conflict in the South China Sea.
Within China, voices are growing that favor a war to settle
this dispute over the South China Sea. Is there any change with the foreign policy of Chinse Communist Party (CCP) authorities? This question has become a focus of attention at home and abroad.
Global Times under People’s Daily, a CCP propaganda
media, published an editorial claiming the current maritime territorial disputes have created troubles that kept consuming the domestic political unity in China.
The editorial claimed that China cannot only negotiate,
but should “kill one to warn one hundred", when necessary.
Commentator Wen Zhao said that the CCP’s current priority
is ensuring a smooth power transfer at its 18th Congress. Now is a critical moment with the CCP seeking stability
and fearing change.
Wen Zhao: “The mentality of the CCP top-level does not want too much change to happen at the moment when it makes a transfer of power. Or else, its power transfer process will be more difficult,
unpredictable and more risky, which is not the CCP’s hope. “
On November 6, Japan Coast Guard arrested Zhang Tianxiong, a Chinese fishing boat captain. Nagasaki District Public Prosecutors Office took a
judicial proceedings against Zhang, who was charged with
violating Japan’s Fishery Law (to avoid on-board searches) Nagasaki summary court ordered Zhang to pay a 300,000 yen fine.
On November 9, after making payment,
Zhang left Japan, accompanied by a Japanese patrol boat.
Wen Zhao commented that there has been little friction
over the South China Sea in the past.
But now, some small surrounding countries do not want
to take the initiative to provoke the Mainland China.
Wen Zhao: “The dominant power in the South China Sea conflict is the CCP authorities.
If it retains the status quo, in other words,
for those territories currently occupied by other countries, if it retains this status quo, the conflict won’t escalate. “
Recently, CCP’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a series of military exercises.
On November 10, a rare large-scale military exercises were
held in the Guangzhou Military Region, covering five provinces in the Middle-South China. Although the military authorities did not explain their intention, the exercise’s content,
location and timing easily enabled observers to associate
them with the situation that the CCP is facing in the South China Sea.
Aside from this, CCP’s Artillery Corps also had recent activity. Artillery Command College and
PLA Artillery College were merged to set up Nanjing Artillery
College, which is at the level of deputy corps. This year, the CCP initiated preferential policies to attract
university students to join the army, and eased the requirements of army’s new recruits.
Wen Zhao: “So far, its military power is not strong enough
to cope with a very serious political consequence.
That is to say, it has no problem to win the war,
but the aftermath will be a serious political consequence,
which will bring a great change to the security environment around China. “
Regarding sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea, a series of actions conducted by the CCP has caused concerns from the international community and
neighboring countries. Radio France Internationale commented that if the surrounding nations do not inhibit the friction over the South China Sea,
some territorial waters with frequent disputes
will suddenly break out in military conflict, sooner or later.
According to Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reporters, in order to avoid CCP’s swooping,
Japan scheduled to hold a large-scale military exercises
from November 10. For the first time, the most elite No.7 Division of
Japan Maritime Self Defense Force and
the most advanced Type 90 tanks were deployed from
Hokkaido, to join the military exercises at island of Kyushu.
Japanese media said that in the 2010 amendment of Japan’s National Defense Program Outline,
the CCP was specifically set as
“the biggest imaginary enemy".
Meanwhile, on November 12, joint military exercises
between Japan and South Korea will be held in the Tsushima Strait. About 1,000 soldiers are expected to attend. In the same way, the CCP was targeted as the imaginary enemy. On November 16, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission will suggest that U.S. Congress enact legislation
and will call on the executive branch to accept Taiwan’s
procurement of F-16C / D fighters.
2011 East Asia Summit is reported to be being held
on November 19 in Indonesia.
The U.S. and Russia will attend the meeting as members for the first time. The Summit is expected to cover the topic of
sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea.
NTD reporters Li Jing, Tang Rui and Wang Mingyu