【新唐人2011年11月11日訊】去年2月，上海證大房地產有限公司以創記錄的價格購買了上海外灘一塊地塊，而成為上海地王。最近，證大只保留這處地產35%的股權，將控股權轉移給一家關聯公司。據中國指數研究院統計，10月全中國土地成交同比跌四成，9熱點城市沒賣掉一塊住宅地。學者認為，中國房地產一直處於畸形狀態，現在資金鏈斷裂向下調控不可避免，但對民生有利，對經濟回歸正常狀態也有利。
上海證大房地產有限公司董事長在上週表示，同意讓其他人插手外灘國際金融服務中心8-1地塊，因政府收緊信貸市場，證大正面臨著財務壓力。
去年這筆地產交易標價95.7億元，而且總價還包括了手續費和貸款估值，目前這筆交易似乎沒有出現估值大幅上升或大幅下降。
但據中國指數研究院發佈的資料顯示，10月深圳、蘇州等6個熱點城市沒有住宅用地推出，廣州、成都等9個熱點城市住宅用地零成交；10月全中國133個城市共成交土地1365宗，成交面積5500萬平方米，環比減少40%，同比減少37%。
另外，道鐘斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires)計算，10月份住宅銷售面積較上年同期也下滑了11.6%。
對此，著名學者、中國財經獨立評論家鞏勝利表示，中共政權管控房地產不是用市場手段，而是用臨時的行政措施，這在歐美法治國家是行不通的，這就導致了中國房地產畸形發展。房地產回檔是很自然的現象。
鞏勝利：“因為2011年中國房地產達到了62年來的最高峰，就是售價也好、房地產產出也好，還有老百姓買房也好，都達到了價格的最高峰。房地產達到這麼高的水準，很奇怪的現象。回檔這說明中國房地產在尋求一個正常的環境在往回檔，這個環境我估計要持續兩到三年時間吧，才能回歸正常。”
《華爾街日報》指出，中國房地產價格下降的勢頭越來越明顯，表明北京調控房價的政策已經初見成效。
鞏勝利認為，房地產下調不是政府調控的結果，因為溫家寶壓了房地產很多年都沒有達到目標，現在貨幣一收就有效。賣房的、賣土地的、沒有錢的就收縮，蓋好了的房子賣不出去，只有降低房價。鞏勝利指出，目前的房地產下調只是初步階段，下調的深層可能要到明年的中期，或下期。
鞏勝利：“政府投資要減少，這是一個方面；還有房地產當中的資本也在缺少，比如中國出現溫州的老闆走掉，還有內蒙古的鄂爾多斯、還有廣東省的東莞，都出現資金鏈的斷接。資本鏈斷接，沒有這麼多進入房地產市場，房地產自然而然就開始下調。”
《華爾街日報》認為，房地產市場是中國經濟增長的一個重要驅動力量，房地產下滑，將威脅中國經濟增長。
而鞏勝利指出，中國把房地產作為最領頭的產業本身就不正常，像歐美沒有哪個國家把房地產作為支柱企業，但房地產降溫能讓中國經濟處於正常狀態下發展。鞏勝利還認為，房地產正常應該下調20%至30%左右，這對民生是好事，讓老百姓買得起房才是一個國家穩定的大局，這是必須要走的路，不然房地產企業將來倒閉的更多。
鞏勝利：“杭州、南京還有一些城市，他們政府獲得的利潤佔了政府的50%以上，有很多城市都是這樣的。如果長期靠房地產運行，不管哪個國家，哪有那麼多土地供你買賣呢？房地產下調，可能會使中國經濟回歸正常狀態。”
最近幾個星期裡，中國幾家最大的房地產開發商紛紛在上海、北京及深圳等大城市降價促銷，而這波降價風潮也已蔓延到杭州、合肥等二三線城市。中國社會科學院工業經濟研究所投資與市場研究室主任曹建海認為，如果政府繼續實行調控措施的話，那麼房價將下跌50%。
新唐人記者秦雪、宋風、郭敬採訪報導。
Tumultuous Times for China』s Real Estate Market
Last February, Shanghai Zendai Real Estate Limited
paid a record price for land in Shanghai Bund,
a waterfront area and one of the most famous tourist
destinations in Shanghai.
Zendai owns only 35% of the shares of the property,
and will be transfer most shares to a controlling affiliate.
According to the China Index Research Institute of Statistics,
in October, land transaction in China dropped 40% compared to one year ago.
No urban residential land was sold in nine hot cities.
Scholars believe that China’s real estate,
which has been in a deformed state,
now the fund chain break regulates inevitably downward.
This will benefit society and help bring the economy back to normal.
The president of Shanghai Zendai Real Estate Company
said last week that he agreed to sell Lot 8-1
at Bund International Financial Services Centre.
As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tightens credit
markets, Zendai is facing a lot of financial pressure.
The price of this Shanghai Zendai real estate transaction
was listed at RMB 9.57 billion [US$1.5 billion].
Currently, the valuation has not significantly increased
nor decreased.
According to data released by the China Index Research
Institute, in October, 15 hot cities including Shenzhen,
Suzhou, Guangzhou and Chengdu, no any transaction record
was found for residential land sales.
In October, in 133 cities throughout China, there were only
1,365 residential land sales recorded,
totaling 55 million square meters [13.6 million acres],
or a decrease of 40% in link relative ratio, down 37% on a year-on-year basis.
In addition, according to the Dow Jones Newswire』s
calculations, residential properties sale in October fell 11.6% compared to one year ago.
Gong Shengli, a well-known scholar and independent critic,
said the Communist Chinese Regime control real estate is not with the market method,
but a temporary administrative measure,
which does not work in Europe and North America.
This has led to China’s abnormal real estate development.
Actually, real estate market corrections are normal.
Gong Shengli: “China’s current real estate list prices,
real estate outputs, and purchasing prices are the highest they』ve been in 62 years.
It is very strange that real estate has skyrocketed like it has.
Real estate correction indicators show that the market
is headed for a correction,
which I estimate would happen in two to three years."
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the momentum of
China’s falling real estate prices is more and more obvious,
which shows that Beijing’s price regulation policies
have achieved some initial success.
Gong Shengli believes that the real estate downturn is not
the result of government regulations,
as Wen Jiabao has been trying to exert pressure on the real
estate market for many years, with no success.
However, true changes in the real estate market
occurred immediately once cash flow is tightened.
Home and landowners dropped their prices
when they saw that people are strapped for cash.
Once a new home is built and is not selling,
the owner will be forced to lower his asking price.
Gong Shengli said the current real estate downturn is only
a preliminary stage, and that deep cuts may occur during next year’s mid-term or late term.
Gong Shengli: “Government investment has declined,
this is one aspect; there is also a lack of real estate capital.
For example, a boss in Wenzhou reneged on a big loan and
escaped, and other cities have also broken capital chains,
(a cycle of capital flows), including Erdos, Inner Mongolia,
and Dongguan in Guangdong Province.
If a capital chain is broken, then less capital will flow
into the real estate market, thus the market will naturally taper off."
The Wall Street Journal said the real estate market is
an important driving force behind China’s economic growth.
Thus, a real estate downturn will threaten
China’s economic growth.
Gong Shengli said, It』s abnormal for any country, including
China, to place the real estate industry in such a leading role.
Neither the United States nor Europe
has relied on real estate as an economic pillar.
The fact that real estate is cooling down in China
could help the Chinese economy develop at a normal rate.
Gong also believes that real estate prices need to drop
a further 20% to 30%, which will be good for society,
as people will be able to afford housing, which is good
for a country』s stability.
It』s the way we have to go, or else many more real estate
businesses will close in the future.
Gong Shengli, “There are a number of cities in Hangzhou
and Nanjing, whose revenues accounted for 50% of the government』s income.
Many cities are like this.
If we rely on real estate to this degree, in any country,
how could there be so much land to trade?
A real estate downturn will help bring China’s economy
back to normal."
In recent weeks, China’s largest real estate developers have
marked down their prices in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, among others.
This trend has begun to spread to second and third tier cities
such as Hangzhou and Hefei.
Director Cao Jianhai, an investment and market research
analyst at the Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS,
said that if the CCP continues to implement control measures,
house prices would inevitably fall by 50%.
NTD reporters Qin Xue, Song Feng and Guo Jing