【禁聞】網路審查恐不利人人網赴美上市

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【新唐人2011年2月24日訊】中國大陸版的臉書(Facebook) ——《人人網》,計劃今年赴美上市。但分析人士擔憂,中共政府對網絡的嚴格審查,會對互聯網公司的發展造成不良影響。特別是最近在中東爆發的“茉莉花”革命中,互聯網起了很大作用,中共當局因此對互聯網的管理更加嚴厲。

據了解,《人人網》預計在今年(2011 年)6月份之前,向美國證券交易委員會提交上市申請,通過首次公開募股(IPO)籌資5億美元。摩根士丹利、德意志銀行和瑞士信貸將擔任聯席證券承銷商。

《人人網》的前身是《校內網》,在2005年模仿美國社交網站 Facebook創立。 2006年,《校內網》被「千橡互動」(Oak Pacific Interactive)收購,2009年改名為《人人網》。據「易觀國際」統計,目前《人人網》擁有1億6千萬註冊用戶,是中國最大的社交網站。

近年來,新型的社交網絡迅速發展,Facebook作為全球最大的社交網站,雖然還沒有上市計劃,但它的市值據估計已經達到800億美元。

有鑑於此,「ChinaVenture投中集團」研究總監李瑋棟對《人人網》的上市前景比較樂觀,他認為,“社交網絡”這種新型的互聯網概念本身就是一個很大的賣點,投資需求旺盛。

但網民對此似乎看法不同,TechWeb網站做了一個調查,結果顯示,62%的網民表示不看好《人人網》上市,35%的網民表示看好,另有3%的用戶認為不好判斷。

網友質疑,《人人網》找到合適的盈利模式了嗎?據《人人網》自稱,自2008年出售廣告以來,廣告收入每年增長一倍以上。但網友認為,網絡競爭激烈,單純靠頁面廣告,將會損害用戶體驗,使用戶轉往其他廣告少的網站。

海納亞洲創投(Susquehanna International Group)預計,到2014年中國網絡廣告市場規模將達到近130億美元。但考慮到中共政府對互聯網的嚴格控制,分析人士對《人人網》的未來表示擔憂。

中國問題觀察家章家敦(Golden Chang)對《美國之音》表示,谷歌遇到的問題,其他公司也會遇到。中共政府的運行方式,確實是企業可能遭遇的風險,某一天,政府因為某個原因改變了態度,《人人網》可能就會發現自己面臨破產的邊緣。

《美國之音》認為,章家敦的擔憂不無道理。在中東“茉莉花”民主革命如火如荼進行的時候,中國可能會考慮關閉類似推特的網絡服務,來嚴格控制信息傳播。

近年來,很多中國公司尋求到海外融資或發展,但並不順利。前不久,美國外國投資委員會要求中國「華為」公司撤銷對美國 3Leaf公司的收購申請,理由是“國家安全利益”。

五角大樓的一份報告證明,「華為」公司創始人任正非與軍隊、國安部甚至中共高層有密切聯繫,而公司另一位重頭人物-現任董事長孫亞芳則出自於國家安全部。

這種擔憂也使「華為」在英國競購電訊製造商馬可尼(Marconi)失敗,在印度進入市場也受阻。

新唐人記者李謙、黎安安綜合報導。

Internet Censorship Undermines the Plan of “Chinese Facebook” to Enter US Stock Market

Mainland China’s Facebook, Renren.com is planning

to enter the US stock market this year.

Analysts worry about the effects of CCP’s censorship.

Internet plays a key role in the current

“Jasmine Revolution” in the Middle East.

Because this, the CCP tightens internet control.

China’s Facebook Renren.com plans to apply in June

to enter the US stock market with an initial IPO of

US$500 million to be managed by Morgan Stanley,

Bank of Germany, and Credit Suisse Group.

Renren.com network, formerly Xiaoyuan network,

was created by mimicing Facebook.

In 2006, Xiaoyuan network was purchased

by Oak Pacific Interactive and renamed Renren.com.

According to Analysys International,

Renren.com has 160 million users and

is the largest social network in China.

With the rapid growth in social networking,

Facebook is estimated to worth US$80 billion,

although it has no plans to enter the stock market.

ChinaVenture research director Li Weidong

is optimistic about Renren.com, saying

social networking is a new concept on the internet

that can attract a huge investment.

But net users feel differently. TechWeb shows

65% users are negative about Renren.com’s future,

only 35% is positive, and 3% neutral.

Net users worry if Renren.com can make a profit.

Renren.com claims its ad sale has doubled annually.

But users worry that ad-filled pages will

undermine user experience, forcing them to

move to other sites with less ads.

Susquehanna International Group predicts

net ads will reach US$13 billion in China by 2014.

Analysts worry the CCP’s censorship will

undermine Renren.com network.

China expert Gordon Chang said to VOA,

difficulties Google met will confront other companies.

The way CCP operates poses a risk on the industry.

If CCP interferes, Renren.com will find itself bankrupt.

VOA considers Chang’s concern valid.

As “Jasmine Revolution” unfolds in the Middle East,

the CCP may close networking sites like Twitter

to control information flow.

Some Chinese companies tried to enter foreign stock

markets but face difficulties overseas.

Recently, US authorities ask Huawei company

to withdraw its plan to purchase 3Leaf

for reasons of “national security.”

A Pentagon report said Huawei’s head Ren Zhengfei

has connections with the Chinese military and CCP,

and Huawei’s CEO Sun Yafang is from State Security.

Similar worry failed Huawei in its competition with

the British Marconi to enter the Indian market.

NTD Reporter Li Qian

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