【新唐人北京时间2018年04月11日讯】【世事关心】(465)中国和俄国 谁才是对美国的最大威胁?

驱逐了60名俄国外交官,但是却祝贺普京再次当选。川普的俄国政策到底是什么样的?
Expelled 60 Russian diplomats, but congratulated Putin’s reelection, what is Trump’s Russia policy exactly?

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“川普政府开始也抱着对俄友善的想法,但我认为最终很可能会事与愿违。中俄两国一起对美国发难”
“I would not be surprised if the current US administration that also came in with this notion of let’s be friends with Vladimir Putin. At the end of the day ends up in a very different situation.”

但是中俄联盟会持久吗?
Both have increased tension with the U.S. but can a China-Russia alliance last?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“中共方面的意图主要是拉拢俄国,为自己对抗美国的策略服务,所以同样道理,俄罗斯也经常会做这个姿态。”
“the CCP’s aim is to win over Russia and serve its own end against the US. Similarly, Russia will often do the same when it has a tense relationship with the United States. ”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“俄罗斯在这类关系里只能当个被使唤的次等角色。”
“Any kind of relationship such as this can only have Russia as a junior and subservient partner in this relationship. ”

普京习近平的最终目地是什么?
What is the end game for Putin and Xi Jinping?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“建立一个以北京为中心的世界经济网络,取代以美国为中心的世界经济网络。”
“it attempts in reality to create a Beijing-centered world economic network rather than a US-centered one。”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“只要普京依然掌权,俄国就不会改变现行政策,也就是对内搞独裁,对外搞挑衅和对抗。”
“however long the Putin regime will remain in power, the current course, both for domestic authoritarianism and for the aggressive and confrontational stance towards the West, will continue. ”

谁才是对美国的更大威胁?
And who is a bigger threat to America?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“说到美、中、俄关系,我刚才讲了,美国跟中共、俄国,美国的战略报告、国防报告、军事报告分析都认为中共的威胁已经超过了俄罗斯,其中很重要的一个依据就是经济实力。”
“ As to the US-China-Russia relations, as I said, it is acknowledged that the threat from communist China has surpassed that of Russia, as shown in the US strategic, military and national defence reports, basically due to its economic strength. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎来到《世事关心》,我是萧茗。川普总统对俄国和中国都是采用双重战略。一方面,他试图和两国领导人维持良好的私人关系,但是另一方面,他对两国在政治和经济上采取强硬态度。对俄国一方,表现在3月份美国驱逐了60名俄国外交官。对中国方面,表现在增加关税和通过台湾旅行法。随着美国和中俄两国的关系越发紧张,中俄两国走的越来越近。那么川普的策略究竟是什么?两个和美国关系不好的国家能成为真正的盟友吗?如果不能,两国中的哪一个对美国威胁更大?这一集的《世事关心》,我们来探讨这些问题。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. President Trump has had a dual strategy with both Russia and China. On one hand, he’s tried to have warm personal relations with both leaders. But on the other hand, he has been very tough on them economically and politically. For Russia, this can be seen in the US expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats in March. For China, it can be seen in the increased tariffs and the Taiwan Travel Act. As US relations with Russia and China become increasingly tense, Russia and China become increasingly close. So what exactly is President Trump’s strategy? And can two countries that are on bad terms with the U.S. become real allies? And if they can’t, who is a bigger threat to the US? We’ll explore these questions and more in this episode of《 Zooming In》.

4月3日,在和波罗的海三国首脑联合举行的记者会上,川普总统重申了他对俄国的强硬立场。
On April 3, during the joint press conference with the presidents of the 3 Baltic states, President Trump reiterated his tough stance on Russia.

川普(美国总统): “我在俄国问题上的立场比任何人都强硬。”
“No one is tougher on Russia than me.”

川普对波罗的海国家的领导人好言安抚。后者一直在给美国和北约施压,要求他们采取更多的地区安全措施,来防范来自俄国的威胁。白宫承诺将花近1亿美元购买大口径弹药;白宫还承诺了大约7千万美元的军援项目,来改进这些国家军队的训练和装备。波罗的海国家则同意对自己能源的来源多样化,减少进口俄国的天然气,更多进口美国的液化气。
These are soothing words to the Baltic leaders. They’ve been pressing the United States and NATO to take additional security measures in the region to deter any potential aggression from Russia. The White House promised nearly $100 million for procurement of large-caliber ammunition. They also promised over $70 million in training and equipping programs to boost their military. The Baltic countries agreed to diversify their energy sources by importing less Russian natural gas and more US liquefied gas.

3位领导人的访问选在了一个特殊时刻。3月26日,美国驱逐了60名俄国外交官,作为前俄国间谍在英国被毒杀的回应。英国也驱逐了23名,法国4名,德国4名。在西方国家中,美国驱逐的俄国外交官最多。作为回应,俄国驱逐了150名西方外交官,相当于西方国家驱逐的俄国人数量的总和。
The visit took place at an interesting time. On March 26, the U.S. expelled 60 Russian diplomats for the poisoning of a former Russian spy in England. The U.K. expelled 23, France 4, Germany 4. The U.S. expelled the most among all Western countries. Russia responded with the expulsion of 150 Western diplomats. The same total number of Russians that the West expelled.

美国外交官从俄国被驱逐后不到24小时,俄国声称他们测试了最先进的洲际导弹,绰号“Satan 2”。根据4月4日CNN的报导,几周前普京还炫耀了新武器装备,包括Satan 2 导弹。
Less than 24 hours after the U.S. diplomats were expelled from Russia, Russia claimed they tested their state of the art intercontinental missile, nicknamed “SATAN 2.” According to CNN’s report on April 4, Putin offered a flashy display of new weaponry a few weeks ago, including the SATAN 2.

这个系统可以打到任何地方,可能会到达川普总统的海湖庄园。
This system has no limitation on distance……. could reach President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home.

今年早些时候,为反制俄国侵占克里米亚和军事干涉乌克兰,川普政府宣布了更多对俄国的制裁。
Earlier this year, the Trump administration announced more sanctions against Russia in response to Russia’s occupation of Crimea and ongoing violence in Ukraine.

双方的举措,尤其是如此大规模的驱逐外交官,在冷战高峰都是没有的。但是,川普总统的一些做法确实有些令人困惑。
The actions from both sides, especially such a large number of diplomatic expulsions, was not even seen at the height of the Cold War. However, President Trump’s message is a bit confusing.

3月20日, 他打电话祝贺普京连任总统。在西方盟国中这么做的只有法国、德国、意大利和日本。
On March 20, he called Putin to congratulate him on his re-election. France, Germany, Italy and Japan were the only Western allies that did the same thing.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普对俄政策到底是什么?早些时候我采访了开放俄国基金会的副主席Vladimir Kara-Murza,关于川普的对俄政策以及普京下一步的计划。
So what exactly is President Trump’s Russia policy? I spoke to Vice Chairman of the Open Russia Foundation, Vladimir Kara-Murza, about President Trump’s Russian policy and what Vladimir Putin will likely do next.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“一方面,川普祝贺普京连任总统,另一方面,他驱逐了60名俄罗斯外交官,数量位居西方国家之首。昨天,在与波罗的海三国总统举行的记者会上,川普却说能与普京保持良好的个人关系。他的对俄政策到底是什么?是否有效?”
“ On one hand, President Trump congratulated Putin’s re-election, on the other hand, he expelled 60 Russian diplomats, the most among western countries. Yesterday, during his press conference with the Baltic states presidents, he said he can have a very good relationship with Putin. What is Pres. Trump’s strategy in dealing with Russia? and Is it working?”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“前几届美国总统,布殊、奥巴马和现任总统川普,他们之间在政策上几乎没有连续性。但在处理与普京的关系问题上,他们却表现了异乎寻常的跨党派的连续性。过去历任美国总统都试图向普京示好,试图与他达成协议、取得谅解。我们还记得,布殊说从普京眼中感受到了他的内心世界;奥巴马宣布与普京重修盟好,并赞扬他为俄罗斯人民所做出的贡献。我们也看到美国现任政府做了同样表示。当然,祝贺所谓的大选胜利,已经成了一种不幸的、跨党派传统,布殊、奥巴马和川普都这样做。这种做法没有任何意义,而且,令我感到非常疑惑的是,他们如何去面对现实,即每次俄罗斯举行所谓的选举时,来自西方国家的观察员,包括美国在内的西方民主国家,都来监督俄罗斯的选举,最后得出结论,这不是一次自由与公正的选举、只是做做样子,也并不民主。然而紧接着,这些民主国家的领导人,总统和总理们拿起电话,祝贺普京‘胜选’。这就是我们上个月,2018年3月又一次看到的情况。我不明白,这两件事放在一起合乎情理吗?从一方面来说,祝贺普京当选是美国总统搞出的不好的惯例。但另一方面,谴责俄方选举的不民主也代表了美国国会跨党派的高尚传统。在美国国会中的两党领导层支持民主、支持法治和人权的原则和价值观。正因如此,几年前才通过了《马格尼茨基法案》。不论如何,美国国会至今仍保持着这种传统。人们仍在坚守这种原则与价值观,反对利己主义的功利政治。”
“Well, there are very few areas of policy continuity between the last few US presidents – George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and the current president, Donald Trump. But there is one area of remarkable bipartisan continuity: It’s their relationship with Vladimir Putin. All past US presidents have tried to make friendly gestures towards Vladimir Putin, have tried to make deals with him, have tried to find some sort of accommodation with him. We remember George W. Bush who looked into Mr. Putin’s eyes and got a sense of his soul. We remember Barack Obama who declared a reset in relations with Mr. Putin and praised him for the great work he’s done on behalf of the Russian people. We’re hearing all these signals from the current US administration. And, of course, the congratulating on the so-called election victory has also been an unfortunate, and long bipartisan tradition by US presidents – President Bush, President Obama, and now President Trump are doing this. And this, of course, makes absolutely no sense. And it’s really puzzling to me how you can reconcile the fact that every time we have a so-called election in Russia, observers from Western countries, Western democracies, including the US, who come to monitor these elections, make the conclusion that this was not a free and fair vote, this was basically a setup, this was not a real Democratic contest. But then you have the leaders, the presidents and the prime ministers of those same Western democratic countries who pick up the phones and congratulate Mr. Putin on his quote unquote “election victory.” And this is what we saw again in the last month, in March of 2018. I’m very puzzled as to how those two things make sense. So on the one hand, this has been an unfortunate tradition of US presidents. But on the other hand, I think it has been a much more noble, also bipartisan tradition on Capitol Hill in the American Congress. And there was principled bipartisan leadership in the US Congress in support of principles and values of Democracy, of rule of law, and human rights. It was this leadership, for example, that led to the passage of the Magnitsky Act in the United States a few years ago. And we continue, despite everything, we continue to see this today on Capitol Hill in the US Congress. We continue to see people who are prepared to take a stand in support of principles and values and against the cynical realpolitik. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“这就是说,您认为川普总统从当选到现在,在对俄政策上有转变?或至少是态度上的转变?我们知道川普刚刚当选时,他视俄罗斯为潜在的盟友。”
“Right, that said, do you think there is a policy or at least an attitude change towards Russia from President Trump between when he was first elected and now? Remember when he was first elected he somehow saw Russia as a potential ally. ”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“如果我们回顾一下普京执政的近二十年里,可以看出每位美国总统都想与普京做朋友,愿意向普京摇出橄榄枝。布殊这样做了,奥巴马、川普也是如此。并且我们知道,前几任美国总统最终都完全改变了对俄罗斯的立场。他们逐渐发现了事实,最终他们意识到,与普京不会有利益共同点。甚至连真正的伙伴合作都无法达成,一方是民主制度下的美国政府,另一方是腐败、掠夺民财的极权政体──普京与克林姆林宫政权。我们清楚,布殊和奥巴马在最后是怎么对待普京的。如果现任美国政府一开始提出‘让我们与普京做朋友’这一概念,而最终立场却大相径庭的话,我不会感到任何惊讶。”
“Well, again, I think if we look back at the last almost two decades since Vladimir Putin has been in power, we have seen that every US president has come into office wanting to be friends with Vladimir Putin, wanting to extend a hand to Vladimir Putin. Bush did that, Obama did that, and Trump did that. And, of course, we know that those previous US presidents have ended up in very different positions. They came in contact with reality, as it were, and they finally realized that there cannot be, at the end of the day, a convergence of interest. There cannot be even a genuine cooperation of partnership between, on the one hand, a democratic system of government that is the US and, on the other hand, a corrupt, kleptocratic authoritarian regime, that is the regime of Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin. So we know how President Bush and President Obama ended their terms with regard to Vladimir Putin. So I would not be surprised if the current US administration that also came in with this notion of “let’s be friends with Vladimir Putin,” at the end of the day ends up in a very different situation. ”

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“普京下一步在美俄关系方面会做出什么举动呢?”
“ What will Putin do next in terms of US-Russia relations?”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“正如我们从现代俄罗斯历史中所了解的那样,打压本国公民的政权,也必定会在国际舞台上变得更具侵略性。我们都见识了苏联政府的行径。我们也看到了普京政府的所作所为。普京政权需要利用这种“被围困的堡垒”心态。他们需要这种俄罗斯被敌人所包围的形象。当然,普京的造谣机器所树立的敌人主要是美国。因此我认为没有理由期待普京在国内或国际上做出任何改变。我们可以这么说,只要普京政府继续掌权,或长或短,因为我们看到俄罗斯历史上出现过政治上的转折,但只要普京政权执政,从目前的形势来看,无论是在俄罗斯国内实行的独裁主义,还是对西方的挑衅和对抗,都将持续下去。”
“ As we know from modern Russian history, regimes that are repressive domestically towards their own citizens also, necessarily, in time, become more aggressive on the international stage. This is what we saw with the Soviet government. This is what we’re clearly seeing with Mr. Putin’s government today. The Putin regime needs this besieged fortress mentality. They need to have this image of Russia apparently surrounded by enemies. And, of course, the main of those enemies according to the Putin propaganda machine is the United State of America. So I think there’s no reason to expect Mr. Putin to change this course, either domestically or internationally. So I think it’s fair to say that as long as the Putin regime remains in power, for however long that will be, because we also know that Russian history has a way of throwing political surprises sometimes, but however long the Putin regime will remain in power, the current course, both for domestic authoritarianism and for the aggressive and confrontational stance towards the West, will continue.”

俄国和中国在对美关系上都处于低潮,但是这两个国家能交好吗?下一节为您关注。
Coming up, Russia and China are both on bad terms with the U.S., but can the two become real friends? Stay tuned.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):当西方国家,尤其是美国,为了前俄国间谍在英国被毒杀一事,正在与俄摊牌的时候,在美俄冲突之外,另一个重要国家也在台前幕后,利用着这种复杂的三角关系在施展手腕,这个国家就是中国。
When the West, especially the U.S., had a showdown with Russia over the poisoning of the Russian spy in the U.K., the fight was never just between the U.S. and Russia. There is another important player in the background, or in a sense, in the foreground that levers this tricky triangular relationship. That player is China.

4月3日-8日,中共外交部长王毅和国防部长魏凤和访问了俄国。在4月5日举行的记者会上,俄国外交部长和王毅共同谴责了他们定义的美国单边主义。
On April 3-8, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and defense minister Wei Fenghe visited Russia. At a press conference on April 5th, the Foreign minister of Russia and Wang Yi
jointly denounced what they described as the unilateralism of the United States.

王毅(中国外交部长):“美国此时此刻以美国优先为由,对外频频的发起和挑起贸易战,这是典型的单边主义,也是赤裸裸的经济霸权,不仅严重违背世界贸易组织的规则,动摇贸易体制的根基……”
“The US uses the trade war. It is typical unilateralism and an undisguised attempt at hegemony. It is a serious violation of WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules.”

当被问及对美中贸易战俄国怎么看,俄国外交部长重申了王毅的观点,认为川普政府在国际事务中采取单边主义。
Narration: When asked about Russia’s view of the U.S.-China trade war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed Wang Yi’s view of the Trump administration’s unilateralist approach to international concerns.

Sergey Lavrov(俄国外交部长):“我们正在和一个挑战国际既有秩序的政府打交道。他们试图修改近期的所有关键国际协议。这些协议是国际社会共同制定的,其中绝大多数也由联合国安理会批准了。”
“ Russian Foreign Minister: “We are dealing with an administration that is taking revisionist action on the global arena, seeking to revise nearly all key recent international agreements which were reached by the international community, and most of them approved by the UN Security Council.”

稍早之前,中国新任中共国防部长魏凤和,和习近平的心腹,在同一次访问中,就美、俄、中关系给出恶劣明确的立场。
Earlier, Wei Fenghe, the new defense Minister of China and a Xi Jinping loyalist, offered a clear position on U.S.-Russia-China relations during the same trip.

据俄罗斯国家通讯社“塔斯社”报导,魏凤和说:“中国方面已经(到莫斯科)向美国人展示了中国和俄国军队之间的密切关系,我们来支持你们。”
According to Russian state news agency TASS, Wei said: “The Chinese side has come (to Moscow) to show Americans the close ties between the armed forces of China and Russia … we’ve come to support you."

中俄之间的重振友谊,反映了他们分别与美国之间的紧张关系。对中国而言,这是贸易战、朝鲜问题、和台湾旅行法。对俄国而言,它希望加深俄美关系。与川普总统的关系,在川普竞选与俄罗斯之间的勾结、以及其它各种纷争的调查中,已经枯萎。最近的纷争是英国前俄罗斯间谍的毒杀事件。
The reinvigorated friendship between China and Russia reflects the increased tension they have with the U.S. respectively. For China, it is the trade war, North Korea, and the Taiwan Travel Act. For Russia, its hopes for warmed Russia-U.S. ties under Trump have withered amid the investigations of alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia and myriad other disputes, most recently the poisoning of the ex-Russian spy in Britain.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):但是,中国和俄国的联盟能长久吗?尽管俄国和中国在政治历史上相似,两国关系一直紧张。20世纪50年代的中苏关系因为政治路线之争而破裂。这为1972年尼克松访华建立中美关系打开大门。今天,地缘政治结构已经变化。46年之后重燃的友谊要建立在什么基础上?我们来听听稍早我对开放俄国基金会副主席Vladimir Kara-Murza和本台资深评论员陈破空的采访。
However, can the alliance between China and Russia last? Despite historical similarities politically, China and Russia have had tense relations. The Sino-Soviet split in the mid ‘50s broke off relations due to political divergences. The falling out opened China up for Sino-American relations when President Nixon visited China in 1972. Today, the geopolitical structure has changed. What will a renewed friendship be based on after 46 years? Let’s hear my earlier discussions with Open Russia Foundation Vice Chairman Vladimir Kara-Murza and Chen Pokong, senior political commentator and NTD TV contributor.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“普京是否视中国为盟友?俄罗斯和中国之间的利益互动是什么?”
“Does Putin view China as an ally? What is the dynamic between Russia and China?”

Vladimir Kara-Murza(开放俄国基金的副主席):“普京过去几年一直试图把西方国家描述为俄罗斯的敌人、俄罗斯的威胁,这一点无论从哪个角度来分析都讲不通。首先,俄罗斯本身就是西方文明的一部分。我们是一个欧洲国家、我们是基督徒占多数的国家、我们是广义上的西方世界的一部分,因此,把我们的天然盟友描绘成敌人是很荒谬的。而且,今天俄罗斯最安全的边界是我们的西部边界,是我们与北约和欧盟国家的边界,而我们其他地方的边界是否安全都不好说。如果普京的俄罗斯外交政策的基点,不再是俄罗斯与其天然盟友──欧洲、以及其它西方国家之间的关系,而是试图与共产独裁的北京政权建立某种伙伴关系,那他的这种做法,就直接与俄罗斯长期的国家安全和战略利益相抵触。因为俄罗斯在这种关系中只能是被使唤的小兄弟。例如在这次的炼油厂的管道项目中,是很明显的。‘西伯利亚力量’是向中国输送俄罗斯自然资源的管道,那个项目几年前就宣布了。即使从纯粹的经济角度来看,这个项目也不利于俄罗斯长远的经济和国家利益。所以我认为这是普京政权的短视行为,是为了服务于国内政治的需要,也有对内政治宣传的目的,他在作战略转移,想让俄罗斯远离我们在西方的天然盟国,并尝试与北京的共产独裁者建立某种关系。”
“Well, Putin in the last few years has been trying to present Western countries as enemies of Russia, as a threat to Russia, which, first of all, makes absolutely no sense from any point of view because, of course, first of all, why do you speak – Russia is itself a part of the Western civilization. We’re a European country. We’re a Christian majority country. We are a part of the wider West. And so it’s absurd to try to present our natural allies as our enemies. Also, our most secure and our safest borders in Russia today are our borders on the West, our borders with the NATO and European Union countries, which cannot be said about our borders elsewhere. And when Putin is trying to reposition Russian foreign policy away from our natural allies in the rest of Europe and in the wider West, towards trying to build some sort of a partnership with a Communist dictatorship in Beijing, I think he’s – what he’s doing is directly contradicting the long-term national and strategic interests of Russia. Because any kind of relationship such as this can only have Russia as a junior and subservient partner in this relationship. And this is clear, for example, in this pipeline project. The “Strength of Siberia,” the pipeline delivering Russian natural resources to China. That project was announced a few years ago. Even from the purely economic point of view, this project is detrimental to long-term Russian economic and national interests. And so I think it’s a very short-sighted attempt by the Putin regime that wants to serve its own domestic, including its own propaganda purposes, that it is pivoting – trying to pivot Russia away from our natural partners and allies in the West towards trying to build some sort of relationship with a Communist dictatorship in Beijing. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):我还采访了陈破空先生,关于中国的立场。来听一下。
I also asked Chen Pokong what he thinks from China’s perspective. Let’s take a listen.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“中共政权怎么看普京政权呢?视它为盟友吗?“
“How does China view Russia? A potential ally? ”

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“我想中共政权、习近平政府并没有把俄罗斯或者普京真正视为盟友,而是作为一个利用的对象。最近4月3日,中共的新任国防部长魏凤和访问俄罗斯,他说了这么一番话,他说我把俄罗斯作为出国访问的首站,是要向世界表明,两国军事合作的高水平,显示两军的紧密的战略合作关系。有报导说,他这番表态是异常大胆。他跟俄罗斯国防部长会见的时候说的这番话,但是俄罗斯方面却没有说出他这个调子的话,俄罗斯的国防部长也好,其他官员并没有说出同等调子的。实际上中共的国防部长之所以说这个话他是说给美国听,因为现在中共跟美国正处于全面对抗,双方的贸易战、或者贸易反击战,双方在南海拉锯,双方在朝鲜半岛问题上的尖锐的对立等等,所以在这个时候呢,中共方面的意图主要是拉拢俄国,为自己对抗美国的策略服务,所以同样道理,俄罗斯也经常会做这个姿态,当美国跟俄罗斯的关系紧张的时候,俄罗斯也会做出同样的一个标志。实际上中俄之间是互相利用,是做为对付西方的一个手段,如果说当其中任何一方和西方关系改善的时候,立即中俄之间的所谓战略合作伙伴关系就破局了。”
“ I don’t think the CCP or the Xi administration treats Russia or Putin as a true ally. They just use them. On a visit to Russia on April 3, China’s new Defense Minister, Wei Fenghe, spoke with the Russian Defense Minister: “I take Russia as my first stop abroad to show our high-level military, and close strategic ties to the world.” It is reported that such remarks were unexceptionally bold. However, the Russian side, say, its defense minister or other officials, never aired similar views. In fact the CCP’s defense minister was purposefully irritating the US, because China and the US are on all-around tensions right now. Trade war or retaliation, the South China Sea issue, the tough Korean peninsula issue, and the like. So at this moment, the CCP’s aim is to win over Russia and serve its own end against the US. Similarly, Russia will often do the same when it has a tense relationship with the United States. In fact, China and Russia are using each other to vie with the West. Once either side improves its ties with the West, the so-called Sino-Russian strategic partnership will end. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“川普总统对普京和习近平好像都是采取了双管齐下的方式。一方面,和他们尽量保持良好的私人关系,另一方面在政策上又给他们施加了很大的压力。他这样做的目的是什么?有效果吗?”
“President Trump seems to take a dual approach with both countries. He seeks to build warm personal relations with Xi and Putin. But he also takes a tough stance against them politically. What does he want to do and is it working? ”

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“至于美国总统川普和川普政府对中国和俄罗斯采取什么态度,表面上来看好像是川普政府把中国、中共和俄罗斯都列为美国的战略威胁,在他们的国防战略报告,或军事战略报告或者国家战略报告中都有书写,但这里面有个差别,把中共列在前面,俄国列在第二位,这是美国基于对冷战之后最近几十年的发展态势作出的一个判断。但是川普政府其实对中俄还有不同的态度,我们知道川普在竞选期间就誓言要改善跟俄罗斯的关系,而他跟普京之间有互相欣赏、惺惺相惜的很多的言论。上台前后他曾经有个战略企图,就是“连俄抗中”或者“连俄制共”,要颠覆以前的传统,以前尼克松之后的几任总统是“连中抗苏”或者“连中抗俄”,对红色阵营进行分化,是联合中国。那么现在川普政府上台,明显感觉时代的变化,因此他“连俄抗中”。但不巧的是,或不幸的是,他受制于通俄门事件的困扰,没法改善美俄关系。因此从表面上看来,好像美俄关系在恶化,但是没有实质性的恶化,我相信川普跟普京仍然在私底下期待双方能够改善关系。前不久普京连任总统,川普立即打电话祝贺,而且商讨要进行美俄高峰会。但是习近平连任国家主席,川普至今没有表态,没有表达任何祝贺之意,既没有贺电,也没有电话,一反常态,他显然表示对中共内部修宪、取消任期制的不满,也是中美关系全面对立的一个气氛,体现了这个气氛。所以在这个情况下来看,川普不见得对中俄是双管齐下,两面同等待遇的一个态度,他显然是明里反中又反俄,但是暗地里是反中共、亲俄罗斯,或者拉拢俄罗斯,同时我们看到,俄罗斯最近有新的动作,就是跟越南加强了关系,向越南出售武器装备和军舰,而且越南邀请俄罗斯军舰访问越南的金兰湾,而俄罗斯表示感谢。也就是说南海又多出来一个角色,金兰湾只先后驻过美国和俄罗斯的军舰,越南从来没邀请过中国的军舰去进驻,所以可以看出越南处理问题亲疏有别,而俄罗斯在亚洲地区有跟越南、印度有个传统的铁三角,俄、越、印铁三角关系,所以俄罗斯舰驻越南显然不利于中共方面,显然是要站在越南一边,所以这是一个潜在的信号”
“Let’s see how President Trump and his administration treat China and Russia. Apparently, the Trump administration regards them both as strategic threats, as listed in its military or national defense strategy reports. But here is the difference: China always ranks as the No. 1 threat, while Russia ranks No. 2. The US has drawn this judgment from decades of post-Cold War developments. Specifically, the Trump administration makes a distinction between China and Russia. It’s known that during his election campaign, Trump vowed to improve his relations with Russia, and their remarks show that he and Putin bore mutual appreciation. Around his taking office, Trump had a strategic attempt to “Unite with Russia and vie with China,” quite unlike his predecessors, whose strategy was to unite with China to fight against Russia, undermining the Red Block. Now in the Trump era changes have come — “Unite with Russia to vie with China.” Unfortunately, he was troubled by Russiagate, unable to better the US-Russian relations. So, on the surface, US-Russian relations are deteriorating, but not substantially. I believe Trump and Putin both expect to improve their bilateral ties under the table. Not long ago, after Putin won re-election, Trump immediately congratulated him and discussed US-Russia summits. However, Xi’s re-election won no congratulations at all from Trump. No call, even. Absolutely, Trump was expressing his disapproval of Xi’s constitutional amendment and repealing of term limits. This indicates a sign of all-around Sino-US confrontation. Judging from this situation, Trump does not necessarily treat the two countries equally. On the surface, he is both anti-China and anti-Russia, but secretly he is anti-China, but pro-Russia. We’ve also noted Russia’s recent moves to cement its ties with Vietnam: selling arms and warships to it. And Vietnam invited Russian warships to visit Cam Ranh Bay, and Russia expressed thanks. You see a new intruder in the the South China Sea issue. So far only American and Russian warships have been stationed there. Vietnam has never invited any Chinese warships. Clearly, it has been alert to China. Notice the old iron triangle: Russia-Vietnam-India. So the presence of Russian warships in Vietnam is obviously to the CCP’s disadvantage.”

普京和习近平的最终目地是什么?中国和俄国谁才是对美国的更大威胁?下节继续探讨。
Coming up, what is Putin and Xi Jinping’s end game? Who’s the bigger threat to the US? Stay tuned.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):尽管传统上俄国被视为欧洲国家,普京仍然将西方国家视为敌人。中国的习近平也对西方国家有野心。他们的最终目地是什么?谁才是对美国的更大威胁呢?
Even though Russia is traditionally viewed as a European nation, Putin still sees Western countries as the enemy. In China, Xi Jinping also has ambitious goals in the West. What’s their end game? And who is a bigger threat to the U.S.?

俄国对美国和其它国家一直在主动出击。不论是干预美国大选,对美国的基础设施进行网络入侵,还是在英国毒杀间谍,有一件事是明显的:俄国要证明自己依然是西方国家的均等对手。Julie Ioffe,《大西洋杂志》的作家,在4月4日的Brookings论坛上这么说……
Russia has been very aggressive both in the US and the rest of the world. Whether it’s meddling in US elections, cyber attacks on US infrastructure, or the UK spy poisoning, one thing is evident: Russia wants to show that it’s still an equal adversary to Western nations. Julie Ioffe, staff writer for The Atlantic, spoke about this at a Brookings forum on April 4th.

Julie Ioffe(《大西洋杂志》作家):“西方国家在这件事情上应该明白,普京做这些事为了重新商议冷战的投降条款,俄国大规模驱逐西方外交官,声称西方国家在毒杀间谍和干预大选方面没有任何证据,我认为普京想证明西方国家,尤其是美国没有办法惩罚俄国,因为如果你能惩罚对方,你就是强势的一方,或者是父母的角色,普京的这种咄咄逼人的表现是为了证实自己和俄国不是弱者,可以与西方平起平坐,不是可以随便惩罚的小孩。”
“and, you know, the myriad expulsions on the Russian side; the statements about how the West hasn’t proven anything — both in terms of the poisoning and the election meddling — is, I think, Putin trying to show that the West, and especially America, is not in a position to punish Russia because if you’re the side punishing, you’re the superior side, you’re the kind of parent, or you’re the senior partner or the parent in this relationship; and I think Putin is trying to very aggressively show that he’s an equal; that Russia’s a peer, and that it’s not, you know, a recalcitrant child that you punish.”

另一方面,中国做的又不同。习近平的一带一路战略展示了一个远超过亚洲范围的野心。一带一路从陆地上向西延伸到东欧;海上丝绸之路越过红海、进入地中海,把沿线国家都包括进去。直接挺进欧洲经营了三百年的势力范围。
China, on the other hand, is different. Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Way strategy depicts an ambition that goes well beyond Asia. From land, One Belt One Way extends westward to east Europe; From water, the silk road crosses the red sea and enters the Mediterranean sea, casting its eye on all countries along the route. This is a region that has been under European spheres of influence for over 300 years.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):普京和习近平的最终目地是什么?谁是对美国的更大威胁?中国还是俄国?来听一下陈破空的看法。
What is Putin and Xi Jinping’s end game? Who is the bigger threat to America? China or Russia? Let’s hear from Chen Pokong again.

萧茗(Host/ Simone Gao):“您觉得,通过一带一路体现出来的习近平的全球战略是什么?”
What is Xi Jinping’s global strategy reflected by one belt one way?

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“说到‘一带一路’,这是习近平的一个经济战略,国际经济战略,因为习近平认为中共国力增强、崛起,成为第二大的经济体,新兴的超级大国,那么得有所做为。在军事上一时不见得走得出去,是在东海扩张、南海扩张,中印边界有领土之争,摆出一个强势,但是要冲破第一岛链、第二岛链,那还是相当的困难。因此在经济上要率先走出去,就制定了一个‘一带一路’的国际战略,表面上是古代丝绸之路的一个翻版,但实际上这个‘一带一路’就是企图通过中国的资金、投资,沿线国家,为中国沿途买单,赢得沿线国家的支持,进而建立一个以北京为中心的世界经济网络,取代以美国为中心的世界经济网络。同时呢,在这个过程之中,通过大量的基建投资控制沿线国家,使‘红色中国’、‘红色帝国’的这么一个国际影响力随之延伸。但是‘一带一路’实施以来显得很不顺利,首先是西方国家并不捧场,因为觉得‘一带一路’缺少两个基本的东西,一个是没有公开招标的机制,再一个没有公平对待的机制,所以受到西方国家的抵制,即便在亲中共的国家中,‘一带一路’项目也是连遭失败。”
“Oh, that’s Xi Jinping’s economic strategy internationally. Because Xi Jinping believes that, as the second largest economy and the emerging superpower in the world, China must do something. Militarily, however, there isn’t much for it to do for the time being. Territorially, China has been expanding its influence in the East and South China Seas, and over the Sino-Indian border dispute. However, it was very difficult for it to break through the first and second island chains. So it needs its economy to go abroad first. That’s why “One Belt One Way” came out. The project seems to be a replica of the ancient Silk Road. However, it attempts in reality to create a Beijing-centered world economic network rather than a US-centered one, by investing with China’s capital in the nearby countries, which will pay for the bills, and winning their support. Meanwhile, it will control those countries through massive local infrastructure investment, and extend the international influence of “a Red China” or “a Red Empire.” But the project has been unsuccessful. Western countries have responded coldly. They believe there are two basic things absent: an open bidding process and a fair treatment mechanism. Even in pro-China countries the plan has met with failures one after another. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):“对美国来说,谁是更大的威胁?中国还是俄国?”
“ Who’s the bigger threat to the US? China or Russia?”

陈破空先生(时政评论家):“说到美、中、俄关系,我刚才讲了,美国跟中共、俄国,美国的战略报告、国防报告、军事报告分析都认为中共的威胁已经超过了俄罗斯,其中很重要的一个依据就是经济实力。俄罗斯的经济实力、经济产值也就相当于中国的一个省,尽管有飞机、大炮和先进的武器及庞大的核武库,但是缺钱缺人,所以在这方面来说,俄罗斯就大不如前,那么在这样的情况下,俄罗斯也在扩张,中共也在扩张,但中共由于它的经济实力非常的庞大,而且它进行垄断统治,俄罗斯现在是半民主国家,中共的垄断统治不仅垄断政治权利,而且在经济领域、国家资源进行全面的垄断,全部的资源归于一党,然后又进行一人统治,权力高度集中。在这样的情况下,他可以进行国家总动员,绑架十三亿人民一致对外,所以这个就给国际社会造成巨大的震撼。所以我想这些显而易见,在美国看来,中共的威胁远远大于俄罗斯。”
“ As to the US-China-Russia relations, as I said, it is acknowledged that the threat from communist China has surpassed that of Russia, as shown in the US strategic, military and national defence reports, basically due to its economic strength. Russia’s economic strength or output is no more than that of one single Chinese province. Despite its aircraft, artillery, advanced weapons, and a huge nuclear arsenal, Russia is short of money and labor. So, its situation is much worse than before. Under such circumstances, both Russia and China are on their way to expand their influence. Comparatively, Russia is a semi-democratic state. Well, in communist China, the CCP monopolizes not only political rights, but also national economic resources in a much wider range. So, all of China’s resources go to one party, then go to one man. You see highly centralized power there. In this case, the top leader can mobilize the whole country, kidnap or coerce its 1.3 billion people to oppose foreign countries. It has a tremendous impact on the international community. So evidently, in the eyes of the American people, the threat from China is far more alarming than that of Russia.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):4月5日,川普总统说他在考虑对另外1000亿美元的中国进口货物加关税,这让美中贸易关系变得更加紧张。一天之后,美国财政部宣布制裁17名俄国政府高官,外加7名俄国大亨和12家俄国公司,作为对俄国干预2016年美国大选的回应。这三国之间的紧张关系还没有缓和的迹象。下一步会发生什么?《世事关心》将为您持续追踪。感谢您的收看,我是萧茗,下周再见。
On April 5, President Trump said he was considering imposing tariffs on an additional $100 billion dollars in imports from China, a major escalation in trade tensions with Beijing. One day later, the US Treasury Department announced fresh sanctions against 17 senior Russian government officials, seven Russian tycoons, and 12 Russian companies in response to Russian meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections. There is no sign that the tensions among these three nations is subsiding. What will happen next? Stay tuned.《 Zooming In 》will always bring you fresh and complementary perspectives on the important issues in this world. This concludes today’s program. I am Simone Gao. We will see you next week.

============================
策划:萧茗
撰稿:萧茗 Jessica Beatty
剪辑:郭靖 柏妮 凌帆 唐彬
翻译:张晓峰 Frank Yue 唐彬
校对:李容真
听打:Jessica Beatty 唐彬
旁白:Rich Crankshaw
采访配音:Kacey Cox
摄影:Wei Wu
特效:Harrison Jiang
文稿整理:Merry Jiang
合成:唐彬

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