【世事關心】貿易戰的真正要害

【新唐人2019年05月08日訊】【世事關心】貿易戰的真正要害:川普週日在推特發文將提高2000億中國商品徵稅的稅率至25%後,引起全球市場的波動,中國股市連同人民幣在幾小時之內大跌,股市損失了2.8萬億人民幣,人民幣貶值了1.3%,這是一月十日以來的最低值。

川普總統對中國又一次採取了強硬態度,這是正確的做法嗎?中美貿易談判的最後關頭將會發生什麼?習近平幾乎接受美國所有要求之後,過去的幾個月,中國方面又發生了什麼?美國是否有一小段窗口可以對中共施加最大壓力?誰是中共在美最大說客?

美中正在進行最終一輪的貿易談判。中國大陸經濟正在從崩潰的邊緣開始逐步改善。美中雙方能否就貿易問題達成全面協議?中共會遵守嗎?

The U.S. and China have entered into the final phase of trade talks while China has risen from a near collapse of its economy. Is a sweeping trade agreement still possible and will it be honored by China?

章家敦(專欄作家/中國問題專家):「我認為北京無意履行在改變經濟結構上所作的承諾。」

Gordon Chang:“ I don’t think Beijing has any intention of honoring his promises on changing the structure of its economy. ”

華爾街是竭力促成中美雙方達成貿易協議的最大推手之一,這是出於什麼原因?

Narration: One of the biggest proponents of a trade deal between the two countries is Wall Street. Why?

羅傑·羅伯遜(布拉格安全研究所總裁):「在我國資本市場上的中國公司有很多。我們發現有600-650家,甚至更多。」

Roger Roberson: “The number of companies that are in our capital markets today that are Chinese, we find that some 600 over 650 such enterprises are there. ”

Bannon: Do you think for a second, that these people do not fully understand what’s going on? Of course they do. But they have a hard calling, and that’s money.

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「你真的以為華爾街那些人不了解實情嗎?他們當然非常了解。但是他們面對的是金錢的誘惑。」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「當時我聯想到1989年里根總統。 我想知道,當你說『我們能把他們一鍋端』,具體是什麼意思呢?」

Simone:“ At that moment I thought about 1989, Ronald Reagan, you know he doubled down SDI after he walked away from Gorbachev and stuff. I even did a program comparing these two historic moment: Trump’s trade war and the 1989 moment. So I want to ask you what you mean exactly when you said we can take down the whole thing. ”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎來到《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。今早正當我要錄製這個開場白時,川普總統發佈推特。川普總統的推特完全改變了美中貿易談判最後階段的走向。總統寫到,在2000億美元中國產品上的10%稅率將升至25%。他還寫到:與中國的貿易協議仍在進行,但是進展太慢。他們想重新談判,沒門!中國股市連同人民幣在幾小時內大跌。股市損失了2.8萬億人民幣,人民幣貶值了1.3%,到了6.8218人民幣對換一美元,這是一月十日以來的最低值。總統對中國採取了又一次強硬態度。這是正確做法嗎?中美貿易會談的最後關頭將會發生什麼?習近平幾乎接受所有美國要求之後,過去的幾個月,中國方面又發生了什麼?美國是否有一小段窗口可以對中共施加最大壓力? 誰是中共在美最大說客?在這一期《世事關心》,我們探討這些內容。

Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. A Tweet from President Trump came in yesterday morning while I was preparing to record these opening remarks. His tweet changed the entire dynamic of the final phase of the U.S. China trade talks. The president wrote that the U.S. would raise the tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods, from 10% to  25%. He also wrote: “The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!” Chinese stocks tumbled along with the yuan a few hours after this tweet. The stock market lost 2.8 trillion yuan in value and the offshore yuan fell as much as 1.3 percent to 6.8218 per dollar, its lowest since Jan. 10,. The president is taking yet another tough stance on China. Is this the correct position? What is going to happen at the final phase of the U.S.-China trade talk? What really happened on China’s side in the past few months after Xi Jinping accepted almost all U.S. demands? Is there a small window where the U.S. can give China the maximum pressure? and who is the biggest lobbyist for the CCP in the U.S.? In this edition of Zooming In, we will explore these questions.

難得的機會
Part 1: A rare opportunity

五月一日,美國貿易談判團隊從北京回國,從剛剛結束的最新談判中帶回三個關鍵信息:1. 在幾個禮拜之內,雙方有望就美中貿易談判達成最終協議;2. 中國方面對於關鍵行業的政府補貼問題,仍未解決;3. 關稅作為一種迫使北京遵守承諾的方法,雙方就立即取消或保持現存關稅仍存異議。

On May 1, the U.S. trade team returned home from the latest negotiations in Beijing with three key messages: One, both sides are hopeful that a final U.S.-China trade deal could be struck in a couple of weeks; two: China’s subsidies to key industries remain unresolved; and three, the two sides disagree on whether to immediately remove existing tariffs or keep them in place as an enforcement measure to make sure Beijing honors its word.

美國貿易談判代表羅伯特·萊特希澤周二告訴參議院委員會,「許多主要問題尚待解決」、「如果這些問題不能以有利於美國的方式得到解決,我們不會達成協議」。

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told a Senate committee on Tuesday that “There still are major, major issues that have to be resolved”, “and if those issues are not resolved in a way that’s beneficial to the United States, we will not have an agreement”.

五月八日,中國副總理劉鶴將率100人代表團赴華府參加又一輪談判。主要新聞機構預期美國可能接受談判條款,而這些條款並非最初期望達成的大獲全勝。

Narration: On May 8, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead more than 100 officials to Washington for another round of negotiations. Major news outlets predicted a likely deal and the U.S. may accept terms less sweeping than it had originally sought.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普總統發推之後,貿易談判是否能贏得壓倒性勝利,媒體想法可能有所不同了。這裡《世事關心》願意指出,四個月之前,我們報道G20峰會中川習會,那時中國方面調子大不一樣。習近平做出一副他會做一切事情證明自己的誠意,接受一切美國鷹派要求的樣子,為的是在2000億中國出口產品徵收關稅上,讓美國回心轉意。在G20峰會之後的一個新聞發佈簡報會上,美國國家經濟委員會主任拉裏·庫德洛,是這麼說的:

After President Trump’s tweet, the media might have changed their minds on whether the U.S. will accept a less sweeping deal. What 《Zooming In》 wants to point out here is that 4 months ago, when we covered the Trump, Xi summit at G20,  the dynamic of the talk was quite different. Back then, Chinese president Xi Jinping gave the impression that he did everything to prove his sincerity and accepted almost whatever the American hawks demanded in order to prevent imminent U.S. tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods. At a press briefing after the G20 summit, Larry Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, said this:

Larry Kudlow(拉里·庫德洛/美國國家經濟委員會主任):「這次會晤涉及的話題很廣也很具體,這種情形我們以前從來沒遇到過。另外,我們也從來沒有見過習近平這樣親力親為。事實上,晚宴非常棒。」

Larry Kudlow: “This one covers so much ground and so much detail. We’ve never seen this before. And furthermore, we’ve never seen the hands-on participation by President Xi before. In fact, that dinner was quite remarkable.”

根據美國貿易團隊的看法,這次會議不僅涵蓋大量領域,而且中國方面使用一個重要詞語:「立刻」。

According to the American team, not only was substantial ground covered in the meeting, but the Chinese team used an important word: “immediately.”

Larry Kudlow(拉里·庫德洛/美國國家經濟委員會主任):「當我們見到副總理劉鶴的時候,他說了幾次(這一點我也督促過他),在關稅和非關稅壁壘方面,以及過後將要談到的其它結構性問題,中國都在發生著變化。」

Larry Kudlow: “when we met with Vice Premier Liu He, he said several times—and I pushed him on this—that the China changes, with respect to tariffs and non-tariff barriers and other structural issues that we’ll get into in a few moments, would begin immediately. ”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):G20峰會的最大成果是:雙方同意暫時停火90天,為接下來的會談做準備。若未達成協議,對價值2000億美元的中國商品徵稅將於3月1日生效。但是,到3月底的時候,截止期限再一次推遲。4月底,兩國代表再次見面的時候,中國一方表面上已經不再提「立即」二字了。中方原來的那種急迫感似乎消失了。那麼,幾個月來究竟發生了什麼事情呢?

The biggest outcome of the G20 meeting was that the two parties agreed to a temporary ceasefire for 90 days in order for negotiations to continue. If no agreement could be reached, the tariffs on 200 Billion dollars of Chinese goods would take effect on March 1. However, that deadline was again postponed as March approached. When the two countries met again at the end of April,  no words such as “immediately” surfaced from the Chinese, and the sense of emergency seemed to have disappeared from the Chinese side. What happened during the past few months?

三月,為了刺激經濟,中國總理李克強宣佈減稅二萬億元,數萬億基礎建設投資,以及對中小企業貸款增加30%。這些措施已經產生效果。中國出口超出預期,房地產銷售上升,股市一月到四月躍升33%,外匯儲量去年同比增加85.8億美元,自去年年底經歷動盪以來。

In March, in an attempt to stimulate the economy, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced a tax cut of 2 trillion yuan, a multi- trillion Yuan infrastructure investment and increased loans to small and medium-sized enterprises by 30%. These measures have yielded results. China’s exports exceeded expectation. Real Estate sales went up, the Stock market jumped 33% from January to April and Foreign exchange reserves marked a 8.58 billion dollar increase compared to the same period last year.

中國經濟已經極大穩定下來。

The Chinese economy has largely been stabilized from the turmoil it experienced at the end of last year.

過去三年,中國經濟所有部門都經歷痛苦的去槓桿。此舉為了削減債務和投機性投資。中國公司借投機性投資短時間內積累大量財富。中國政府於2008年經濟危機中實施的四萬億刺激計劃,極大鼓勵了投機性投資。投入市場的貨幣,造成高通脹以及遍及中國的巨大債務問題。

In the past three years, China was going through a painstaking de-leveraging in all sectors of its economy. That was to cut down debt and speculative investment, a widespread practice by Chinese companies to accumulate great wealth in a short period of time. This behavior was largely prompted by the Chinese government’s 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan during the 2008 global financial crisis. The amount of currency issued to the market caused high inflation and huge debt problems throughout China.

當2018年4月,川普總統對中國展開貿易戰,中國深陷去槓桿進程。到2018年12月,大部分A股上市公司市值下跌80%,中國經濟瀕臨崩潰。

When President Trump started the trade war against China in April 2018, China was deep in deleveraging. As of the end of December 2018, the market value of most listed companies in A-shares fell by 80%, the Chinese economy nearly collapsed.

就在那時G20川習會上,習近平答應了幾乎所有美國方面的要求,而美國同意停火並且推遲徵收2000億美元中國產品的關稅,不是一次,而是兩次。這給予中國經濟至關重要的喘息之機。市場信心迅速恢復,經濟數字隨之恢復。

Precisely then, Trump and Xi met at G20 when Xi agreed to almost all US demands, and in turn, America agreed to a ceasefire and postponed tariffs on 200 billion dollars of Chinese imports, not once, but twice. This gave the Chinese economy  critical breathing room. Confidence was quickly restored and so were the numbers.

根據中信投資公司專家的說法,金融領域去槓桿將於2019年底實現,非金融領域去槓桿將於2020年實現。

According to top experts from China International Trust Investment Corporation, deleveraging will be realized at the end of 2019 in the financial sector and early 2020 for non-financial sectors.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):雖然未來還有問題,但中國正在按照計劃或先於計劃完成去槓桿和穩定經濟。中國成功的在最脆弱時說服美國暫緩施加關稅。而同時,美國國內對於要求川普總統與中國達成協議的壓力逐漸增加。誰是這種協議的推手?在最近一次「當前中國危險委員會」的活動中,金融安全專家羅傑·羅伯遜指出,一個集團越來越與中國公司糾纏不清。羅傑·羅伯遜當年幫助里根政府塑造了摧垮蘇聯的金融政策。

While problems still lie ahead, China is now on or ahead of schedule for completing the deleveraging and stabilizing of its economy. It has successfully persuaded the U.S. to pause tariffs at its most vulnerable moment while domestic pressure for President Trump to make a deal with China is increasing. Who are the proponents of such a deal? At a recent event by the organization “Committee on the Present Danger: China”, Roger Robinson, an expert on financial security, who helped craft Ronald Reagan’s policy for dismantling the Soviet Union, pointed out one group that is getting increasingly Intertwined with Chinese companies.

羅傑·羅伯遜(布拉格安全研究所總裁):「我們看看我們資本市場中國公司的數目,我們發現有大概600家,超過650家公司。紐約股票交易所有86家,納斯達克有62家,場外交易市場有超過500家。你知道,場外交易市場對那些規避透明性和公開性要求的公司來說,是受監管最少和最受歡迎的。所以這裡有各種各樣的公司。其中很多往好裡說是高風險實體,往壞裡說,說白了是惡意玩家。我說的是各種危害國家安全的還有侵犯人權的公司。我們可以談談幾個確實的例子。很不幸,涉及的金額不是幾千萬美元,我們說的是幾千億美元,很快會發展到一萬億美元。這些惡意玩家正在大量吸引那些不夠精明的投資人的資金。美國現在有多少投資人在這些金融市場裏?一億八千萬到兩億。我不知道具體數目。你能意識到數字高的嚇人。中國公司正在快速進入我們的市場融資,他們不顧一切的進入你的市場,你看到數萬億美元在未來兩到三年湧入我們的市場,到達這樣一個程度,可以想象的是,一天早上美國人醒來,發現他們中國的金融資產佔他們退休帳戶投資組合的12%,15%,17%, 這樣高的比例被中國的金融資產佔據,你知道那時候會怎樣?我們今天知道的中國說客,和那時候將要發生的事情比,不過是小巫見大巫。這些人認識到,如果美國對中國的各種惡行進行處罰或製裁,都可能而且將會使他們自己的資產貶值或者損失。」

“So when we look at, um, the number of companies that are in our capital markets today that are Chinese, we find that some 600 over 650 such enterprises are there. They’re probably around 86 in the New York Stock Exchange, 62 in, uh, in Nasdaq and over 500 in the, over the counter market, which is, as you know, the least regulated and the most popular for those seeking to skirt transparency and disclosure requirements. So here is a, a wide spectrum of companies. Many of them would be seen politely put as as high risk entities, less politely put or outright bad actors. And I’m talking about national security abusers of all stripe as well as human rights abusers. And we can talk about some hard examples of this, but we’re not unfortunately talking about a few tens of millions of dollars. We’re talking about hundreds of billions of dollars and moving rapidly toward $1 trillion dollars. Now that’s a lot of financing that’s being attracted from unwitting American investors. How many people, how many people do we have in our country, in the markets today? 180 million and 200 million Americans. I don’t know the number of but. You can appreciate that it’s disturbingly high and when you look at the pace at which the Chinese are coming into our markets for dollar financing at which they’re desperate for you, you start to see a trend where trillions of dollars are going to flow into our markets over the next two to three years to such an extent that there it is conceivable that one morning the American people wake up and find whether it’s 12% 15% 17% some high number of their investment portfolios of their retirement portfolios are Chinese securities. Well guess what happens that day? The China lobby, as we know it today, appears to be a trivial asterisk next to what’s coming when, again, these folks realize that any American penalties or sanctions toward China based on it’s malevolent behavior could and probably would devalue or damage the value.”

這種關係是雙向的。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)、JP摩根(JP Morgan)、摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)、黑石(Blackstone)等公司都在中國有巨大投資。美國的主要大公司,如蘋果、沃爾瑪、波音、英特爾、高通等美國大公司都在中國取得了巨大的財富。 大量中共高幹的家庭成員為這些公司工作。 而這些擁有巨額財富的紅色家族也向美國股票市場投入了大量資金。華爾街與共產黨政權之間的關係有多接近? 前白宮首席幕僚和前高盛執行官史蒂夫·班農說:

This relationship goes both ways. Major Wall Street investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, JPMorgan Chase, Blackstone and etc. all have significant investment in China.  Major American corporations such as Apple, Wal-Mart, Boeing, Intel, Qualcomm have all made great fortunes in China. A large number of family members of top Communist Cadres work for these companies. And these red families with great wealth also have immense investment in the American stock market etc. How close is the relationship between Wall Street and the Chinese Communist Party? Former White House Chief strategist and former Goldman Sachs executive Steve Bannon said this:

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「關於習近平,你應該記得當他在達沃斯的時候,他們都坐在那裏。你知道所有麥肯錫公司的人,所有博思艾倫諮詢公司的人,所有的律師事務所,所有的會計師事務所(高盛是我以前工作的地方),他們所有的商業銀行,他們上了世界上最好的學校,在世界上聰明程度最高的地方上班,他們動動手指頭就能得到全部的資訊。今天你告訴我,他們不知道維族人的事,不知道地下基督教會的事,不知道達賴喇嘛,不知道社會信用評分系統,不知道中國人民被奴役的事實。他們有什麼不知道的啊?他們是視而不見!」

“What Xi, and you gotta remember when he’s at Davos and they’re all sitting there you know all the McKinsey guys all the Booz Allen guys all the law firms all the accounting firms Goldman Sachs my old firm all the commercial banks all of them, they’ve went to the best schools in the world they work in the smartest place in the world they’ve got total information at their fingertips. You’re telling me they don’t know about the Uyghurs. They don’t know about the underground Christian church you know about the underground Catholic Church. They don’t know about the Dalai Lama. They don’t know about the social credit score. They do not know about the enslavement of the Chinese people. Sure they know and they don’t care. ”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):班農甚至說,美國公司是中共的遊說部門。華爾街是中共的投資關係公司。請看這一段班農在CNBC電視臺節目裏的激烈言論:

Host: Bannon went so far as to say Corporate America is the lobbying arm for the Chinese Communist Party and that Wall Street is their investment relations firm. Listen to this heated discussions Bannon had on CNBC.

CNBC:「美國大公司真的在資助中共?」

CNBC: “Really? Corporate America is funding the Chinese Communist Party?”

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「 100%。順便說一下,中國共產黨在中國的整個運作都是由華爾街資助的,凱爾可以給你介紹其中細節。請記住,PBS或NPR前幾天有報導,是關於中共侵入和竊取美國公司知識產權的事情。 這兩家媒體和財政部的官員討論過,他們也訪問了大約200家公司,沒有一家公司想要對中共提出指控,因為他們不想失去進入中國大陸市場的機會。今天的美國商界是中國共產黨的遊說部門,華爾街是投資關系部門。你在特朗普總統的貿易談判中看到了這一點,我說這是經濟戰爭的停戰協定。當劉鶴來到美國時,他先去了哪裏,他去見了:兩個月前吃過午飯的,他來的第一天和民意代表、公關公司、以及中國(美國)最大公司的總裁和首席運營官們共進午餐,為的是向特朗普總統施壓。 逼特朗普總統達成協議的所有壓力不是來自中國,而是來自華爾街和美國商界。」

Steve Bannon: “100%. By the way, the entire operation of the Chinese Communist Party in China is funded by Wall Street, which Kyle can walk through with you how they are funded by wall street. Remember, PBS or NPR had this thing the other day about intrusions and stealing intellectual property in American companies. They talked to our treasury official and they went around 200 companies, not one company wants to press charges because they didn’t want to be blocked out of China. Corporate America today is the lobbying arm of the Chinese Communist Party and Wall Street is the investment relations department. You see this on President Trump’s trade negotiations which I say is the armistice on the economic war. When Liu He came to the United States where does he go first. He goes to meet…had a lunch about two months ago… He comes the first day he had lunch with the representatives, the government affairs guys, the COOs and the presidents of the biggest companies in China (America) to put pressure on President Trump. All the pressure coming for President Trump to get a deal is not from the Chinese, is from Wall Street is from industrial America.”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):關於華爾街對於美中貿易談判影響到何種程度,我採訪了羅傑·羅伯遜。

I asked Roger Roberson the same question: how much pressure does President Trump receive from Wall Street on the U.S. – China trade talks.

羅傑·羅伯遜(布拉格安全研究所總裁):「關於貿易談判,總統受到來自多個遊說團體前所未有的壓力。從農業到華爾街的融資金融家。我完全相信,遊說到這個程度,特別是金融方面的遊說群體,說明有一個巨大的群體希望達成貿易協定,無論那個協定內容是什麼,而且要快,所以我認為這裡有巨大利益。但是大多數人很少把中國在美國資本市場的行為與貿易談判聯繫在一起。我認為華爾街在中國方面收取鉅額費用。他們在某些案子上謀求巨大回報。所以他們非常熱心,你可以看到很多中國公司被加入摩根斯坦利資本新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Market Index),最近是加入彭博巴克利全球彙總指數。」

Roger:  “It’s a matter of record that the president has been under a great deal of pressure on the trade talks from various lobbies. Everything from agriculture to finance financiers on Wall Street. So I do believe that this level of engagement particularly on the financial side is such that there is a huge constituency that wants a trade agreement. Almost irrespective of its content. And soon. So I do think there is a great interest there but there is relatively little connection. Between China’s activities in the capital markets and the trade talks in the minds of most people. I think that Wall Street is making huge fees on the China dimension. And they are seeing some impressive returns in some cases as well. So there’s great enthusiasm and you can see it in the number of Chinese companies that are being added to the MSCI Emerging Market Index. And more recently the Bloomberg Barclays Global aggregate index.”

接下來,中國共產黨能否得到信任?
Coming up, can the Chinese Communist Party ever be trusted?

我們能相信中共嗎?
Part 2: Can CCP Ever Be Trusted?

2018年10月9日,總統助理兼貿易和產業政策顧問彼得·納瓦羅博士,在戰略和國際研究中心回顧了近年來中方對美許下的各種承諾:

On Oct. 9, 2018, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dr. Peter Navarro, assistant to the President and Director of Trade and Industrial Policy recounted The promises China has made to the U.S. in recent years.

彼得納瓦羅(總統助理/貿易和產業政策顧問):「我們看看中國玩了什麼把戲。他們曾把布什政府的人玩得團團轉,在經濟對話上像是跳踢踏舞,這就是他們想幹的一切。他們想把我們帶到談判桌前,講得頭頭是道,但是真和我們打交道的時候還是我行我素。如果你想和他們達成協議,這些你都需要知道。2015年,一位中共高級官員答應了奧巴馬兩件事。兩件事,這位中共官員同意南中國海不搞軍事化。但是,不到兩年那些島嶼就武裝到了牙齒。  他們同意的第二件事是停止黑客入侵美國企業,好,他們大概停了半年,現在美國政府可以非常明確的告訴你:中國人的駭客侵入又開始了。他們真的這麼幹,快追上我們了。」

Peter Navarro: “The game that China has played—and they played people in the Bush administration like a violin—is to do the tap dance of economic dialogue. That’s all they want to do. They want to get us to the bargaining table, sound reasonable, and talk their way while they keep having their way with us. And this is—this is—I mean, look, here’s all you need to know when you think about the prospect of a deal, OK? We had a high-ranking member of the Chinese government agree with Barack Obama on two things back in 2015. Two things, OK? The Chinese official agreed to no militarization of the South China Sea. Within two years those artificial islands were armed to the teeth. The second thing that official agreed to was to stop hacking American businesses. Yeah, well, that lasted about six months, and now the U.S. government will tell you unequivocally that those hacks are back up, they’re serious, and they’re coming to get us.”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):熟悉中共歷史的人,都不會對中共的欺騙行為感到意外。中共一貫如此。二戰之後,中共就是靠欺騙在內戰中打敗了自己的主要對手國民黨。

To people who are familiar with the history of the Chinese Communist Party, this behavior is not surprising. It has been consistent throughout its history. In the wake of the second World War, this is one of the key tactics the CCP used to defeat the Kuomintang to take control of China.

1945年日本戰敗。國共兩黨隨即重開了全面內戰。中華民國政府是當時得到國際承認的合法的中國政府。原先弱小的中共軍隊,在內戰中很快發展壯大,最後打敗了國民黨。國民黨失敗的原因很多。中共在內戰中一再運用的主要策略之一,就是所謂「和談」。中共一旦陷入危機,他們就與國民黨展開「和談」。這種「和談」一個舉行了3次。在1945年舉行的最後一次「和談」中,國共雙方達成協議,確認了中華民國政府的合法地位,雙方還同意結束內戰。中共撕毀了這項協議,重啟了內戰直到把國民黨趕出了大陸。

After the Japanese were defeated in 1945. A Full-scale civil war between the Communists and the Chinese Nationalists represented by the KMT resumed. The KMT was the official Chinese government recognized by the international community at the time. The Communist army, previously a minor faction, grew rapidly in influence and power and eventually defeated the KMT. There are many reasons why the KMT was defeated, but one of the main tactics that the Communists used repeatedly during the civil war was the so called “Cooperation talks”. What happened was that whenever the Communists were on the verge of losing, they initiated the so called “Peace Talks’ or “Cooperation Talks” with the KMT. There were three such “cooperation” talks altogether. The agreement from the last talk in 1945 recognized the legal state of the KMT government, and agreed to end the civil war. The Communist Party did not honor that agreement and kept fighting until they expelled the KMT from mainland China.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):自那以來,中國奪取政權。現在,川普政府要求美中貿易關係做出結構性改變。這實質上是要求中共改變他們整個經濟運行的辦法,他們統治國家的辦法,其實就是某種程度的政治體制改革。我問章家敦,一位專欄作家和中國專家,中國是否會這樣做,他回答如下:

The CCP has been in power ever since.  Today, the Trump administration demanded structural changes to the U.S.-China trade relations. This was essentially asking the CCP to change the way it runs its economy, the way it runs its country and basically a political reform of some sort. I asked Gordon Chang, a columnist and China expert if China will really do it, and he said this.

章家敦(專欄作家/中國問題專家):「北京不會兌現改革經濟結構的承諾。 別忘了,習近平堅信國有企業壟斷經濟命脈。他上臺以來,出現了所謂『國進民退』的現象,外資企業和民企都在失去生存空間。所以在貿易談判中,我們要求中共完全改變國有企業壟斷經濟命脈的局面,建立真正的市場經濟。中共不可能接受這一改革要求。習近平不會同意。依我看,貿易談判無法迫使中共改革經濟體制。我們和中共有許多貿易協議,中共無一遵守。 習近平是個毛派,相信國家掌控一切,他主政下的中共不會遵守協議。」

Gordon Chang: “I don’t think Beijing has any intention of honoring his promises on changing the structure of its economy. Remember, Xi Jinping believes in a state dominated system. And during his tenure, we’ve seen state enterprises crowd out the private sector, not just foreign companies, but also the domestic Chinese private sector. So what we’re asking for in our trade talks with the Chinese is for them to completely change the state dominated system and go to a free market economy. That’s just impossible. Xi Jinping is not going to do that. So I don’t think that we can change China with a trade agreement. We had so many trade agreements with the Chinese and they violated them all. Why would they start honoring their deals under Xi jinping who is a believer of the Maoist state dominated China?”

接下來:貿易戰的最終目地應該是什麼?
Coming up, what should the end goal of the trade war be?

里根的針對蘇聯的經濟戰爭
Part 3: Reagan’s Economic Warfare against the Soviet Union

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):33年前當里根總統認識到蘇聯經濟是多麼脆弱,蘇聯是多麼害怕他的星球大戰計劃時,他毫不猶豫地採取了摧毀蘇聯的行動。人們從里根這裡能學到什麼? 讓我們回顧一下20世紀80年代發生的事情。

32 years ago, when President Reagan gained insight into how vulnerable the Soviet Union’s economy was and how they feared his SDI program, he didn’t hesitate to make a decisive move to bring down the whole thing. Is Reagan’s rationale still relevant today? Let’s revisit what happened in the 1980s.

到1986年冬天,里根總統在與蘇聯的冷戰中取得了長足的進展。里根同意丘吉爾的觀點,即蘇聯在與其它國家打交道時,只尊重實力和決心。

By the winter of 1986, President Reagan had come a long way in combating the Soviet Union during the cold war. Reagan agreed with Churchill that the Soviet Union only respected strength and resolve in their dealings with other nations.

里根總統啓動了耗資數十億美元的美國戰略部隊現代化項目,讓當時在軍力上一度落後的美國,重新獲得了對蘇軍事優勢。其中包括戰略防禦計劃(SDI),也被稱爲星球大戰計劃,旨在使核武器失效和過時。蘇聯被迫跟進「星球大戰計劃」而導致破產。蘇聯的國防開支增加了45%。他們還受到里根其他措施的影響。由於里根提高沙特石油產量的策略,蘇聯的石油出口額下降了數十億美元。蘇聯不得不多支出數十億美元來支持第三世界的獨裁者。蘇聯輸掉了這場競賽。

President Reagan started a multi-billion-dollar modernization of U.S. strategic forces to regain a milit ary advantage over the then more powerful Soviet Union. Among those efforts was the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), also known as Star Wars, an initiative aimed at rendering nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete. While trying to keep up with the Star Wars program the Soviets went bankrupt. The Soviet Union increased defense spending by 45 percent. They also suffered from Reagan’s other measures. They lost billions in oil sales thanks to Reagan’s strategy in boosting Saudi oil production. They had to spend billions more on third world dictators. They could not keep up.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):毫不誇張地說,里根總統的經濟戰摧垮了蘇聯。我們能從里根總統那裡學到什麼?10個月前,我看到了史蒂夫·班農的這段視頻,他當時在Delivering Alpha會議上接受採訪,讓我聯想到里根總統在1987年對當時局勢的考量。請看。

it is not an over statement that President Reagan’s economic warfare brought the Soviet Union down. Is his thinking still relevant today? Ten months ago, I came across this short video of Steve Bannon being interviewed at the Delivering Alpha conference. It reminded me of Reagan’s thinking in 1987. Take a look.

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「不僅是貿易,而是貿易的廣度與深度。川普的推進方式,他說,這是500億(徵收25%關稅),這是2000億(徵收10%關稅),如果你敢報復,再加2000億,這樣的方式,如果你報復,那麼可能再加上的是5000億(徵收25%關稅)。川普談到的徵收目標可能是5000億美元的產品。這只是一個手段。301貿易條款是應付矽谷找我們解決的問題,不是技術盜竊,是強制技術轉讓。第三部分是中興公司,我們可以乾脆廢了它。」

Steve Bannon:“ It is not just the trade, it is the scale and the depth of the trade. In the way Trump propose it, he says, it is 50, it is 200, another 200 hundred if you retaliate, and by the way, if you even retaliate again, it maybe another 500. He is talking about now maybe a half trillion dollars. That’s just one. The 301s is what the silicon valley came to us about. It is not the technology theft, it is the forced technology transfers, the third part is ZTE, we can basically impluck these companies..”

MSNBC主持人:「我準備讓這個更激烈些。」

MSNBC host:“ I am trying to game this up.”

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「是的,這就是一盤遊戲。現在,我們正向一個點上匯聚,他們清楚我們可以把他們一鍋端,他們不堪一擊。」

Steve Bannon: “yeah, this is the game. Right now, we are converging on a point and they understand this, we can take the whole thing down. We can take the whole built on the house of sand…”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「我們能把他們一鍋端。」我一直想問他是什麼意思。所以在當下危機中國的活動上我就問了他這個問題。

We can take the whole thing down. I always wanted to ask Bannon what he meant by that so I did at the Present Danger: China event:

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「在你的那次採訪中,你說到我們能把他們一鍋端。我們能把他們一鍋端,我們不知道你是否還記得這句話,但是讓我很吃驚。當時我聯想到1989年里根總統,他拒絕了戈爾巴喬夫之後就加強了戰略防禦計劃。我做了一期節目比較川普貿易戰和1989時刻。我想知道當你說『我們能把他們一鍋端』,具體是什麼意思呢?」

Simone: “One thing you said during that interview is we can take down the whole thing. We can take down the whole thing. I don’t know if you still remember it, but that line just struck me. At that moment I thought about 1989, Ronald Reagan, you know he doubled down SDI after he walked away from Gorbachev and stuff. I even did a program comparing these two historic moment: Trump’s trade war and the 1989 moment. So I want to ask you what you mean exactly when you said we can take down the whole thing. ”

史蒂夫·班農(前白宮首席幕僚):「就像1989年一樣。記得蘇聯解體是因爲西方施加了壓力,但主要是東歐、俄羅斯以及蘇聯其他地區被奴役的人民把這個體系摧垮的。他們終於到了忍無可忍的地步了。整個體系在幾個月之後就崩潰了。這很富戲劇性。你知道,一槍不發。極權分子奴役中國人民的方式,同樣也在這裡發生。摧毀這種奴役,中國人必須要行動起來,西方世界也需要行動。我想你會看到西方世界開始團結,不僅是川普總統的貿易戰,現在他們在參與對抗中國的貿易戰。這是一個因素。另一個因素是軍事上的,只是我們注意到,像中國南海、東海、臺灣防衛、香港防衛、香港人民維權、我們關注的條約的履行程度。你知道,一國兩制,完全被拋到腦後,對吧?香港人民正在被奴役,中國大陸的人也會站起來,因為他們渴望自由。他們明白自由對他們意味著什麼,對吧?他們能夠擁有巨大的經濟力量。所以我認為西方正面臨是一個可能崩盤的系統,我認為所有極權核心、中共、以及它控制下的一切都會崩潰。你可以看到法治、民主,這一切都會發生在中國人身上。」

Steven Bannon: “it’s just like 1989. Remember the Soviet Union collapsed because the West put pressure, but it was the people in slave in Eastern Europe and Russia and the rest of the Soviet Union that brought the system down. At some point of the day they said, we’re not gonna do this anymore. And the whole system collapsed in a couple of months.  it was so dramatic. you know, no shots fired. The way that the radical cadre that has enslaved the Chinese people, and that’s what happened here. They’ve enslaved the Chinese people. The way to bring it down is the Chinese people have to do that, and what the West has to do, and I think you’re seeing start to come together, not just president Trump’s trade, you know, now to engage in this confrontation China’s had in this trade war. That’s one element. The other element is to militarily, to least be aware like in the South China Sea, the East China sea, in the defense of Taiwan, the defense of Hong Kong, the rights of the people in Hong Kong, the implementation of the deal that we caught in, you know, the one nation, two systems, which is being totally thrown out the door, right? The Hong Kong people are now being enslaved, the people in China will stand up because they want freedom. They understand what they can do with freedom, right? the great economic powerhouse they can have. And so I think it’s come upon the west to a system of that, and that I think the whole thing can collapse, I think the entire radical Cadre, the CCP, the whole thing can collapse. You can see rule of law, you can see democracy, you can see all of it come to the Chinese people. ”

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):斯蒂夫·班農歡迎川普總統提高在2000億美元中國產品上的關稅,稱這是川普當選總統以來最重要的一天。美中貿易戰在中國經濟最脆弱時,打了中國一個措手不及。貿易戰揭示了比貿易更為深層的問題,其結果可能也遠遠超過貿易本身。這全看人們如何把握這個歷史時機了。《世事關心》將帶給您有關美中貿易戰的獨到視角,敬請關注。請在twitter告訴我您的想法, @zoominginSimone,您也可以在《世事關心》臉書專頁或者我們的youtube頻道留言,他們的名字都是:Zooming In with Simone Gao,讓我們下次再見。

Steve Bannon applauded President Trump’s increase of tariffs on  200 billion dollars of Chinese goods, saying this is the biggest day of his presidency. The U.S. – China trade war caught China off guard when it was in its most vulnerable economic moment. The trade war speaks to much deeper issues than trade and the result of it could also go much further beyond trade as well. It all depends on how this historical moment is being handled. Stay tuned, Zooming In will bring you perspectives on the U.S. – China trade war you won’t see anywhere else. Let me know what you think on twitter @zoominginSimone. You can also join the conversation on our facebook page or subscribe to our youtube channel at Zooming In with Simone Gao. Until next time, Goodbye.

 


End

======================================================

Producer:Simone Gao

Writer:Simone Gao,  Katherine Hu

Editors:Julian Kuo, Bonnie Yu, Frank Lin, Melodie Von, York Du

Narrator: Rich Crankshaw

Transcription: Jim  Battaglini

Translation:Greg Yang,  Juan Li, Xiaofeng Zhang, Charles Hugo

Cameraman:Wei Wu, Jimmy Xie, York Du

Special Effects:Harrison Sun

Assistant producer: Bin Tang,  Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television

《Zooming In》

May, 2019

===========================================

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVWMVBg1RPrDlakdmbyTKBA

https://www.facebook.com/ZoomingInShow/

===================================================

相關文章
評論