【世事關心】川習會是美國大獲全勝 還是中共故伎重施?

【新唐人2018年12月11日訊】【世事關心】(第二季 )川習會是美國大獲全勝 還是中共故伎重施?

G20峰會期間,川普總統和習近平進行了會晤,讓美方感到意外的是什麼?習近平從原來強硬針鋒相對的立場有所轉變,原因是什麼?因為中美雙方對川習會的成果說法不一,道瓊斯指數一度下滑了800點,美國公眾真的受了中共官媒的影響嗎?川普在美中貿易戰中將要取得突破了嗎?

G20峰會期間,川普總統和習近平進行了會晤。讓美方感到意外的是什麼?
President Trump and Xi Jinping met during the G20 summit. What surprised the American team the most?

拉里 ·庫德洛(美國國家經濟委員會主任):「習主席探討了具體細節,甚至可以說他想強調自己對細節的掌握程度。」
Larry Kudlow:「 President Xi engaged in a level of detail — you could even say he was selling this.」

習近平從原來強硬針鋒相對的立場有所轉變。原因是什麼?
Xi backed down from a tough tit-for-tat stance, what is the real reason?

陳破空(資深時政評論家):「中國經濟走下坡路,而美國經濟走上坡路,中國經濟扛不住了。」
「China feels like it』s economically breaking down since its economy has been going downward while the American economy is improving. 」

因為中(共)美雙方對川-習會的成果說法不一,道瓊斯指數一度下滑了800點。美國公眾真的受了中共官媒的影響嗎?
The Dow fell 800 points after the summit due to competing accounts from the White House and Beijing. Does the American public really believe Chinese media?

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「市場的波動是那些投資銀行家和金融界人士造成的。他們在中國大陸有着巨大的經濟利益,這些人不願與中共打貿易戰。」
Greg Autry(Assistant Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship in USC Marshall School of Business / The Co-author of The Book 《Death by China》): 「When the market moves, it』s because investment bankers and financial professionals who are aligned with the Chinese side of things are unhappy. 」

川普在美-中(共)貿易戰中將要取得突破了嗎?
Is Trump close to hitting a homerun in the trade war with China?

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。在上週G-20峰會期間進行的川-習會,讓許多人感到意外。在峰會召開之前,大多數專家預言這個會晤不會取得什麼成果。川普會堅持要求中共進行經濟結構改革,而習近平不會答應。最終是北京一如既往的只說不做,中共會採取拖延戰術來設法維持現狀。但這次不一樣了,習近平在會晤一開始就做了30-45分鐘長篇講話,他詳細介紹了中共的實質性讓步。看起來習近平確實想取信於美方,他真的要放棄那些他以前一貫堅持的東西嗎?如果是這樣,那麼是什麼原因促成了這一轉變?在這期《世事關心》裡,讓我們一起來探討。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. The Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 summit last weekend took many people by surprise. Before the summit, most pundits predicted there would be very little outcome. Trump would persist on structural changes and Xi would refuse. Most likely Beijing will revert to its old tactics of agreeing to something but never really doing it. They would intend to buy their time in order to come up with new ways to maintain the status quo. But this time it felt different. Xi Jinping kicked off the conversation with a 30-45 minute monologue. He detailed a substantial concession list from the Chinese side. It seemed he did everything to prove his commitment before the American hawks. Does he really want to give up what he absolutely wouldn』t before? If so, why the change of heart? Let』s explore the causes in this episode of《 Zooming In》.

第一部 :一個峰會,兩種報導
G20峰會期間,川習會究竟討論了哪些話題,達成了哪些共識,會後北京和白宮公佈的新聞稿內容並不一致。
After the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit, accounts from Beijing and the White House about what the two leaders discussed and agreed on didn』t match up.

根據白宮發佈的新聞稿,川普總統同意:2019年1月1日起,對價值2000億美元的中國商品徵收的關稅將保持在10%。屆時將不會提高到25%。中國同意從美國大量購買能源、工業及其它產品,減少兩國之間的貿易不平衡。中國同意立即開始採購美國的農產品。
According to a White House press release, President Trump agreed to leave tariffs at 10 percent on $200 billion dollars』 worth of product starting January 1st, 2019. He will not raise it to 25 percent at this time. China agreed to purchase a substantial amount of energy, industrial, and other products from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. China agreed to start purchasing agricultural products from American farmers immediately.

白宮還說,川普和習近平同意,針對強迫技術轉讓、知識產權保護、非關稅壁壘、網絡入侵和網絡盜竊、服務和農業問題立即展開結構性改革相關的談判。雙方議定將努力於90天內結束這一談判。如果90天內未能達成協議,10%的關稅將會增加到25%。
The White House also said Trump and Xi agreed to immediately begin negotiations on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture. Both parties agree that they will try to complete the transfer in the next 90 days. If they can』t reach an agreement within 90 days, 10% tariff will increase to 25%.
美國國家經濟委員會主任拉里·庫德洛參加了川-習會。他在媒體遠程會議上描述了他所看到的當時的情景。
Larry Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, attended the Trump-Xi meeting. He described what he observed in a teleconference with the media.

Larry Kudlow(美國國家經濟委員會主任):「我認為這是一個非常、非常、非常重大的事件。這次會晤涉及的話題很廣,也很具體。這種情形我們以前從來沒遇到過。另外,我們也從來沒有見過習近平這樣親歷親為。事實上,晚宴非常棒。首先,這是我第一次近距離地接觸習主席,我對他一點都不了解。所以,我看到了川普總統與習主席之間的交情。你知道,我們一直聽說他們是好朋友等等,我真的看到了。第二,我想說的是,習主席探討了具體細節,甚至可以說他想強調自己對細節的掌握程度。因為在我看來,作為國家元首,這麼做是非同尋常的,按理像我這樣的人才應該知道細節,但是他知道,他自己直接上場。事實上,副總理、高級經濟專家劉鶴告訴了我們,在晚宴前我們和劉舉行了兩次單獨會談。週六,第二次會談時,劉特意說明了此事。他說:『我什麼也不說,由習主席來說。』這很不尋常,於是我們報告給了川普總統。他沒有一帶而過,他準備得很充分。因此給我留下了深刻的印象。我覺得這一點證明了中國的承諾。也可能我錯了,但我相信是這樣。 」
「I think this is just an enormous, enormous event. Enormous event. This one covers so much ground and so much detail. We’ve never seen this before. And furthermore, we’ve never seen the hands-on participation by President Xi before. In fact, that dinner was quite remarkable. First of all, I — it’s the first time I’ve seen President Xi up close and personal. I don’t know him at all. So I saw the chemistry between President Trump and President Xi. You know, we’ve been hearing that they’re friends and so forth. I actually saw it. And I secondly want to note that President Xi engaged in a level of detail — you could even say he was selling this, which was, in my opinion, quite unusual for the head of state. Guys like me are supposed to know the details. He did. He made the pitch himself. Vice Premier Liu He, the top economic economics guru, as you know, actually told us — we had two private meetings with Liu before the dinner. Steve Mnuchin and Bob Lighthizer and I met privately with Liu — we all know him pretty well at this point — and some of his deputies. And then of course, reported back to the President and we — and our group convened on the meetings. But what I want to say is, Liu kind of flagged it in the second meeting Saturday. He said, 『I’m not going to say anything. It’s going to be President Xi.』 And we reported that to President Trump because that’s quite unusual. And he wasn’t winging it, he was well prepared. And so I was impressed with that and I felt that bolstered the Chinese commitment. I may be wrong, but I believe it did.」

據庫德洛講,這次確實是習近平親自直接開價。白宮國家貿易委員會主任彼得·納瓦羅當時也在現場,對此說法表示了贊同。
According to Kudlow, Xi Jinping actually did the bidding directly. White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro was also present and echoed this account.

彼得·納瓦羅(白宮國家貿易委員會主任): 「晚宴時中國國家主席自己一直講了有30到45分鐘,給出了要達成協議的多項數據。這是非常不一樣的,在美中關係史上是破天荒的首次,這些內容通常都是下面的人見面商討,而這次是總統對總統啊,所以大不相同。」
Peter Navarro(White House National Trade Council Director): 「It was extraordinary to have the president of China himself at that dinner spend the first 30 to 45 minutes laying out the parameters in detail of a deal — that’s never really happened in the history of the U.S.-China relationship. The way this generally works is that the minions meet and talk about these things. This was president-to-president, so that’s very much different as well.」

據參加川習會的美國代表團講,會談不僅涉及了廣泛的話題,而且中國代表團還用了一個很重要的詞:「立即」。
According to the American team, not only was substantial ground covered in the meeting, but the Chinese team used an important word: 「immediately.」

Larry Kudlow(美國國家經濟委員會主任):「還有一點我想說的是,當我們見到副總理劉鶴的時候,他說了幾次(這一點我也督促過他),在關稅和非關稅壁壘方面,以及過後將要談到的其它結構性問題,中國都在發生著變化,這一點在新聞報導中沒有提到過。今天上午我在接受採訪中確實提到了『立即』。然後我就問:『你說的「立即」,是什麼意思呢?』劉鶴說:『立即』。我說:『比如週一?週一就開始?那就很令人信服了。』我這話也告訴了他的高級助理。所以我們會看。但是,可以告訴你的是,以前我從來沒有聽到過『立即』這種承諾。」
Larry Kudlow: 「The other point I want to make is, when we met with Vice Premier Liu He, he said several times — and I pushed him on this — that the China changes, with respect to tariffs and non-tariff barriers and other structural issues that we’ll get into in a few moments, would begin immediately. I don』t think that’s come out yet in the press reports. I did mention that in some of the interviews that I did this morning, 『immediately』. And I said, 『What do you mean, 「immediately」?』 And he said, 『Immediately』. I said, 『Like Monday? Get going, Monday? That would be very persuasive.』 And, I said that to his top deputies. So we’ll see. But, I think, I can tell you I’ve never heard that 『immediately』 commitment before.」

中國的官方媒體新華社同意中國代表團所說的會談過程中友好、建設性的氣氛。但是,當談到究竟談論了哪些話題,達成了哪些協議時,卻是另一番說辭。
China』s official Xinhua News agency agreed with its counterpart in describing a friendly and constructive atmosphere. But in terms of what was actually talked about and agreed upon, it depicts a different picture.

根據北京方面的報導, 習近平和特朗普會晤達成共識停止加徵新的關稅。但沒有提到它只是暫時的停火,該報告稱,下一步是努力消除所有關稅,沒提到90天談判期,以及如果雙方3個月內未達成協議又將發生什麼後果。新華社還說,中國將進一步開放市場,根據中國改革開放和國內市場的需要增加進口。新華社報導未提及將立即大量採購美國的農產品。中國外交部長王毅在新聞發佈會上的發言與新華社的報導嚴格保持了一致。
由於中國媒體掩蓋了川-習會的重要細節,遭到國內民眾越來越強烈的批評。對此,中國《環球時報》總編輯胡錫進為中國政府進行了辯護。他說外交官強調對本國有利的資訊很正常,然後又說他工作的媒體不隱瞞這類資訊。中國《環球時報》還批評川普政府突出北京同意購買1.2萬億美元的美國商品,卻不提美國作出的讓步。《環球時報》舉了一些例子,比如美國有一陣子沒有提「中國製造2025」計畫。美國似乎也停止了抨擊中國的國有企業和相關工業政策。
According to Beijing, the U.S. and China agreed to stop adding new tariffs, without mentioning it』s only a temporary cease fire. The report said the next step is to work to eliminate all tariffs. There is no mention of the 90 day negotiation period and what happens if the two parties don』t reach an agreement within three months. Xinhua also said China will further open its market and increase imports based on the needs of China』s reforms and the Chinese market. The report didn』t mention the immediate purchase of large amounts of U.S. agricultural goods. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi』s press briefing was strictly in line with the Xinhua News agency』s report. In a response to mounting criticism from Chinese citizens that the media concealed important details of the Trump-Xi meeting, chief editor Hu Xijin of China』s Global Times defended the Chinese government. He said it is normal for diplomats to highlight information that is beneficial to their country. He went on to say his media did not hide such information.The Global Times also criticized the Trump administration for highlighting Beijing』s agreement to purchase $1.2 trillion dollars of American goods while failing to mention where the U.S. made concessions. It listed examples, like the U.S. hasn』t mentioned Made in China 2025 for a while. It also seemed to stop attacks on China』s state-owned enterprises and related industrial policies.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):《環球時報》現在處於一個很尷尬的境地。即使它想做一些與新華社不一樣的事情,不得已還得攻擊美國,可能這種細微的差別也是中共上層的授意。真正的問題是:究竟為什麼中共認為有必要隱瞞川-習會的細節呢?以下是我和政治評論家陳破空先生的探討。
The Global Times is in an awkward position. It still has to attack America even if it wants to somewhat differ from Xinhua. It is likely this slight difference was also ordered by the regime. The real question is why did the Chinese Communist Party feel the need to hide the details of this meeting at all? Here is my discussion with Chinese political strategist Pokong Chen.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「您覺得爲什麼中共要對國內隱瞞川-習會的談判內容呢?」
「In your opinion, why did the Chinese communist regime hide part of the Trump-Xi meeting from its people?」

陳破空(資深時政評論家):「中共方面對中國人民隱瞞川-習會的內容,在我的預料之中。因為這個談判幾乎是中共的最後一個機會,改善中美關係、結束中美對抗的最後一個機會。也是在中方的一再要求之下,川普和美方給予他的最後一個寬限。那麼這個談判顯然是中方對美方大幅度的讓步,是妥協,或者叫做認輸,或者叫做輸誠。按照俄羅斯媒體或者印度媒體的描述,叫做『投降』。所以由於這樣一個過程,中共不讓中國人民知情,原因在於他前段時間的調子太高,前段時間說的是『奉陪到底』、『以牙還牙』、『決不後退一步』,又說是要決不讓特朗普在中國的肥羊上割肉,話說得很絕。在這樣的情況下,突然做出這麼大幅度的讓步,所以他覺得在中國人民那裡交代不過去,可能輕則引起民間反彈,重則引起政局動盪、甚至權力不穩。所以出於這樣一種考慮,習近平和中共當局向中國人民隱瞞了這個情況。」
「 The regime orchestrated this, as I had anticipated. Simply because this is almost the last chance for it to warm up China-U.S. relations and end confrontation between them. This is also the last reprieve President Trump and the U.S. have granted him after Xi』s repeated requests. So, evidently, it was China that made substantial concessions to the U.S. You may call it caving in, admitting defeat, or a signal of sincerity. It was flagged as『surrender』, in accounts of Russian and Indian media. That』s why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), who had been so assertive and high-profile, was reluctant to publicize the truth. We remember Xi』s previous public remarks, claiming to 『fight to the end』, 『teeth for teeth』, and『never back down a single step』. He even swore to prevent Trump from taking advantage of China like cutting off mutton from a grown sheep. So defiantly, so absolutely. Despite such statements Xi』s huge concessions made him unable to face the Chinese people, which may provoke civilian criticism, political unrest or a power crisis. As a result Xi Jinping and the Chinese communist regime concealed details of the talk. 」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「根據Navarro的描述,在川-習會上,習近平一上來就做了大段講話,作出了重大讓步。 您覺得他爲什麼要這樣做?中共政權在和美國的貿易戰中,現在到底處於什麼狀態?」
「Xi started the talk with a lengthy speech, offering great concessions, according to Navarro. Why did he do so? How is the Chinese communist regime doing amid the ongoing trade war? 」

陳破空(資深時政評論家):「由於中共在多次談判中搞拖延戰術,在川普上臺不久搞了個『百日談判』,以中共的拖延而告終,最後由副總理劉鶴到美國來了幾輪談判,最後都發現中共沒有誠意。在這樣的情況下,美方擱置了這個談判。後來中共在貿易戰升級,和經濟下滑的情況下,覺得事情到了危急的地步,要祈求美方恢復這個談判。但是川普一再表態,他不想談的太早,說中方還沒有準備好,不想達成協議。但是中方做出了大量的承諾,大量的表態之後,甚至習近平本人做了表態之後,美方才同意舉行這麼一次會談。所以這一次非常值得看點的是,會談一開始,習近平本人就用了三十分鐘的時間來向美方表達他讓步的立場。出於兩個原因,一個原因是,習近平在美方幾乎丟失了信譽。因為2015年,習近平跟當時的美國總統奧巴馬做了兩個表態,最後都失言,所以在美國人面前已經失去了信譽。他一個表態是說,南海絕不會軍事化,但隨後中共在南海搞軍事化;另外他還有一個表態,要停止對美國公司的網絡竊密,結果後來變本加厲的網絡竊密。所以這兩個使習近平本人在美國失去了信譽,或者幾乎失去了信譽。那麼另外一個要點是,當這一兩年川普政府跟習近平政府在談判過程之中,後來川普政府逐漸發現,川普政府說,障礙在習近平,習近平是中美談判的障礙,中美關係的障礙。從白宮經濟顧問庫德洛到美國總統川普都做了這樣一個表示,說劉鶴等人都願意達成協議,但最後習近平障礙了。所以習近平本人必須出來做這個表態這一次。如果他不做這個自己的陳述和承諾的話,這個會談不會開始。另外這個會談一開始由習近平講,就代表了由中方來主講,就說他有一錘定音,定於一尊的作用。他做了這個表態,才能最低限度的取信於美方。所以這個對於習近平來說是最後的機會。那麼之所以為什麼習近平願意讓步就是三個原因,除了說中方是加害者,美方是受害者,所以他有讓步的基礎;第二個他有讓步的條件是,中方是一黨專政,習近平是大權在握,而美方是民主制度,所以習近平讓步他能做出他讓步的條件,而黨內或民間很少能夠反對;第三個原因是中國經濟走下坡路,而美國經濟走上坡路,中國經濟扛不住了。如果發生市場轉移和製造業的大崩潰,會影響了中國整個經濟的動搖。所以習近平不得不做出大幅度的讓步。」
「The Chinese regime repeatedly employed a delaying tactic. Soon after Trump took office they staged a 「100-day negotiation,」 which ended up in failure due to the CCP』s delay. Later Vice Premier Liu He came to the U.S. for another rounds of talks. But no good faith had been found on the part of the Chinese regime. Then the U.S. laid aside the negotiations. China didn』t ask the U.S. to resume the talks until its economy dropped to a dangerous point with the escalating trade war. However, Trump declared more than once that he wouldn』t restart the negotiations so soon, saying that China was not ready to reach a deal. The U.S. didn』t agree to launch this meeting until many promises, even from Xi himself, were made. So the spotlight of this talk was the fact that Xi spent 30 minutes elaborating his concessions to the U.S. team at the very start of the summit. This was done for two reasons. One, Xi almost lost his reputation for the U.S. part. Back in 2015, Xi made two promises to then-American President Obama: one, the South China Sea would never become militarized, but China ate its words later; two, China』s cyber theft targeted at American businesses would be stopped, which turned out to be more alarming than ever. Therefore, Xi lost (or nearly lost) his credibility in the U.S. Further, the past two years』 interactions with the Xi administration taught the U.S. counterpart that the barrier to Sino-U.S. talks or ties was no other than Xi himself. Both Mr. Kudlow, the director of the national economic council, and President Trump showed that Liu He and others consented to a deal, but finally Xi stood in the way. So this time, Xi Jinping himself had to stand out and air his own statements and commitments. Otherwise this meeting would be impossible. Moreover, this posture unmistakably signaled that Xi has the authority of giving a final say. Only by doing so could Xi gain his credibility from the U.S. Again, the last chance for him. There are three reasons for his willingness to back down. First, China is the inflicting party, with the U.S. being the victim, thereby accounting for Xi』s concessions. Secondly, compared with American democracy, Xi』s domination in a party state like China paved his way to concessions, whose authority can stifle dissent either from the CCP or from the Chinese society. Thirdly, China feels like it』s economically breaking down since its economy has been going downward while the American economy is improving. If market transfers and manufacturing collapse occurs, China』s whole economy will be shaken. As a result, Xi Jinping had to offer sweeping concessions.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):我還邀請安一鳴談了對川-習會的看法。他是南加州大學馬歇爾商學院的助理教授。曾與納瓦羅合著《致命中國》一書。
I also asked Greg Autry his opinion on the summit. Mr. Autry is assistant Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. He also co-wrote the book《Death by China》.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「關於川-習會,一些分析人士稱川普被習近平愚弄了。習近平不會真的做出實質性讓步。相反,他們只是欺騙美國,以便爭取時間,想出一些新招術維持現狀,就像他們對付前幾屆美國政府一樣。您認為川普會被習近平再次愚弄、操縱嗎?」
「 Simone Gao: Regarding the Trump-Xi summit, some analysts say Trump was fooled by Xi Jinping. Xi will not really make substantial concessions. Instead, they will just trick the U.S. in order to buy some time to come up with new ways to maintain the status quo, just like what they did with previous administrations. Do you think Trump will be fooled and manipulated again by Xi Jinping?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「我認為川普不會輕易上當。不過,我確實認為,整個美國政府和政府之外的金融界都在期待,尤其是跨國公司和投資者希望看到某種形式的談判和協議。所以,川普和他的團隊面臨很大的壓力,至少看起來他們願意這樣做。因此,只要習近平說了一些正確的事情,坦率地說,他們就有必要給中國增加一點約束。當然,我們只需等待,然後會發現習作出的那些承諾都是假的,他們一貫如此。但是,不幸的是,我認為總統面臨的處境是,他看起來不是那麼壞。他必須得再給習一次機會,一次虛假承諾的機會。我認為,川普定了90天這麼一個時間很緊的期限,然後就提高關稅,而且這個截止期限不是1月1日才開始,而是現在就已經開始了。這個事實,在我看來就是清楚地表明,他們並不希望在這方面浪費太長時間。」
Greg Autry:「 I don』t think that Donald Trump is easily fooled. I do think, however, the expectations of the United States』 government as a whole and the financial interests that go beyond the government, and particularly, multinational corporations and investors want to see some sort of negotiation and agreement, so there was a great deal of pressure on Trump and the Trump team to at least appear that they were open to doing so. So as long as Xi said some of the right things, I think that they were required to give China, frankly, a little more leash. And we』re just going to have to just wait and find out, of course, that those promises made by Xi are false, which they always are. But, unfortunately, I think the president was in a situation where he couldn』t look like that bad guy. He had to let Xi, one more time, make a false promise. And I think the fact that Trump set a very tight deadline on it of 90 days before he upped the tariffs, and that deadline starts, not on January 1st, but it starts right now, makes it clear to me that they don』t intend to mess around with this for very long.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「您最近在《外交政策》雜誌上發表了一篇文章,文中寫道,『兩年來,權威專家已經不再大談、特談中國會不可避免地邁向資本主義、邁向民主國家之類的廢話了,而是在發問:對一個我們都認為是建立在謊言和欺騙基礎上的危險政權,關稅是否是與之對抗的正確策略。』這個怎麼理解?您認為川普的成功僅僅是基於貿易嗎?說得再具體一點,關稅是川普可用的唯一的工具,還是最好的工具?」
「 In your recent article in Foreign Policy, you wrote, 「Over the last two years, establishment pundits shifted from spouting nonsense about China』s inevitable progress toward capitalism and democracy to asking whether tariffs are the right way to confront a dangerous regime we all agree is built on lies and cheating.」 So what about that? Do you think Trump has pinned his success on trade alone, more specifically, are tariffs the only tool or the best tool at Trump』s disposal?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「我認為在川普的所有政策中,他的貿易政策是最有成效的。現在美國失業率創歷史新低,GDP增長異常之高,大街上人們對經濟表現感到滿意。而在中國情況剛好相反,所以川普實現了他所期待的,就是運用關稅在經濟領域對中國高層施加影響。也就是說,如果政府想擴大戰果的話,關稅並不是唯一的工具。其中,他們可以做的一件事就是可以考慮給中國高管和中國留學生頒發簽證一事。最近華為一名高管被捕,在我看來,對於涉嫌參與知識產權盜竊、轉讓、危及美國國家安全的個人的實際行為,他們是非常嚴肅地看待的。假如美國開始考慮互惠性法律,那也是非常合理的。所以如果中國企業想來美國發展,它們也必須以合資企業形式,就像美國企業為了在中國市場開展業務,常常被迫與中國國企成立合資企業一樣。我們還可以強迫中國公司轉讓技術,中國政府怎麼做,我們也怎麼做。如果他們什麼技術都沒有,又想打入我們的市場,也許我們可以向他們收取市場準入費,以支付我們研發技術所需的基本費用。事實上,美國企業和個人在中國不能真正擁有自己的物業,而中國企業卻可以在美國狂買物業、大片的土地和礦產資源,而在中國運營的美國企業卻不可以這麼做。我們應該把規則調整到平衡狀態,阻止中國人在美國買房子、買地、買礦產資源。」
Greg Autry:「 I think that of all of Trump』s policies, his trade policy has been the most effective. U.S. unemployment rate is at a record low. GDP growth is exceptionally high. People on the street are happy with economic performance, and just the opposite is happening in China. So he』s achieved what he wanted, which was leverage over the Chinese leadership in an economic realm using the tariffs. That said, that』s not the only tool that would be available to the administration if they wanted to pursue this further. One of the things they could do would be look at visas for Chinese executives and Chinese students. The recent arrest of a Huawei executive says to me that they』re looking very seriously at the actual behavior of individuals involved in the intellectual property theft and transfer and threats to U.S. national security. It』s also quite reasonable to assume that the U.S. will begin looking at reciprocal laws. So if Chinese organizations want to come to the U.S., they』d be forced into joint partnerships very similar to the way that U.S. companies are forced into joint partnerships often with Chinese state-owned enterprises in order to do business in the Chinese market. We could also force Chinese companies to transfer technology in order to have access to our market the same way that the Chinese government has done. And if they don』t have any technology, perhaps we could charge a market access fee where they need to essentially pay for us to develop technology if they』re going to come into our market. The fact that U.S. companies and individuals can』t really own property in China, and yet Chinese companies have been allowed to come into the U.S. and buy up real property and large swaths of land and mineral resources, which are not available to U.S. firms operating in China, we should level those rules out and prevent Chinese access to real estate, to land, and to mineral resources.」

Coming up, besides Trump, what else caused Beijing to make concessions?
接下來,我們談談除了川普之外,是否還有其它因素迫使北京作出讓步?

第2部分:美國民眾是相信白宮?還是相信中共官媒?
Part two: Do Americans Trust Chinese State-owned Media More than the White House?

原本在川-習會之前表現良好的股市,在12月4日突然出現波動,道瓊斯指數下跌了近800點。債券收益率也大幅下滑。華盛頓郵報指出,造成這種現象的原因是美-中(共)雙方對G-20峰會的成果說法不一。該報認為川普的某些說法並未得到其他政府要員的確認。報導中還引述了一位匿名的前政府官員對川普的批評,稱:「和中共打交道的時候要遵守一些禁忌,千萬不要大張旗鼓的宣揚己方的勝利,這是犯忌的」。
Leading up to the Trump-Xi summit, the stock market showed confidence until December 4th, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average suddenly fell nearly 800 points. Bond yields also plummeted. The Washington Post attributed the market downturn to the differing U.S. and China accounts from the G20 summit. The Post challenged some of Trump』s claims, saying they could not be confirmed by officials from the administration. It also quoted an anonymous former official criticizing Trump, saying, quote, 「You don』t do this with the Chinese. You don』t triumphantly proclaim all their concessions in public. It』s just madness.」

MSNBC頭條新聞的題目更直白:「川普並未與中共達成所謂的重要協議。」
MSNBC』s headline was more blunt: 「Trump』s incredible deal』 with China doesn』t appear to exist.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao): 這一大堆的報導讓我好奇,是不是白宮和中國的國有媒體的看法不一致?美國民眾是不是信賴中國媒體更多?我問了安一鳴先生是不是這樣。
The slew of reports made me wonder if there were discrepancies in the accounts between the White House and Chinese state-owned media. Does the American public believe the Chinese media more? I asked Mr. Autry whether they do or not.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「12月5日,道瓊斯指數下跌了將近800點。華盛頓郵報暗示說下跌是由於美中到川-習會的矛盾報導導致的。我的問題是:如果美中兩邊的說法確實不一樣,美國民眾是不是更傾向於相信中國的說法?不然的話, 為什麼股市會下跌?」
「December 5 , the Dow fell nearly 800 points. The Washington Post suggested it dropped because of the contradicting reports from China and the U.S. My question is this: If there are discrepancies in the description between the two sides, are the American people really inclined to believe the Chinese side? Otherwise, why did the stock market fall?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「中國有一個好的多的『印象管理』系統。中共有世界上最好的宣傳系統。他們非常擅長讓他們的信息被感覺到。還有,老實說,大多數美國的跨國公司都是和中國的利益更一致。大多數他們的工作都在那裡,他們的大多數產品也在那裡生產。大多數美國的投資銀行家和金融人士,就是那些說的話經常在媒體上被引用的人,他們也捐錢給那些給財經媒體貢獻主要內容的華盛頓的智庫。而這些人都是站在中國一邊的。這些人直接從中共那裡拿信息,然後重複這些信息。這種做法很容易,而且美國公眾也習慣了,安之若素。社會大眾不是造成道瓊斯指數顯著下跌,或者債務市場調整的原因。大多數美國大眾都不是活躍的證券交易者。那些活躍的做交易的個人,數量是很少的。市場下跌,那是因為投資銀行家和財經人士,那些和中國利益一致的人,他們感到不高興了。我認為他們已經意識到事態的發展不會如其所願,所以他們從金融市場上抽走了部分資金,這不是很驚奇。」
Greg Autry: 「So the Chinese have a much better perception management campaign, the Communist Party has the best global propaganda system in the world. And they』re very good at making their message be felt. And, frankly, most American multinational corporations are more aligned with the Chinese interests. That』s where most of their jobs are and their products are produced. And most American investment bankers and finance folks that get quoted in the media or make donations to D.C. think tanks that produce the dominant paradigm that ends up in the financial media, these folks are all aligned with the Chinese side, and they take their messaging right from the Communist Party, and they repeat it. And that』s easy to do, and the American public is used to that and comfortable with that, in fact. But don』t assume that because you see that Dow fall significantly or the bond market adjust that that』s the American public. Most of the American public are not active traders of equities. And the ones that are, as individuals, that』s a very small amount of the market. When the market moves, it』s because investment bankers and financial professionals who are aligned with the Chinese side of things are unhappy. And so I think they』ve realized that this isn』t going to happen. And so they』ve pulled back a bit, and that shouldn』t be a surprise.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「說起美國經濟,很多投資人,包括高盛,預測美國經濟明年衰退。你怎麼看?」
「 Talking about the U.S. economy, a number of investors, including Goldman Sachs, predicted a U.S. recession next year. What do you think?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「首先,我們要認識到經濟已經成長了10年,所以明年衰退一下不是什麼驚人的事情。當然是有這種指標,是說很多市場,包括房地產和證券市場,成長了很長時間了,所以一個修正是在預期中的,所以我不知道那是不是不會發生,收益率曲線和別的指標顯示修正是完全可能的。我希望美聯儲會這個時候停止升息,因為升息讓我們移動到那個衰退的位置。但是我們現在經濟形勢很好,如果我們有任何常規的衰退,這不會是太大的問題。 高盛和其它控制財經媒體口徑的投資銀行的問題是,他們的興趣只在於下一個季度會發生什麼和短期的利益回報,因為那些公司的分析師和交易員退休的早,他們的CEO們為跨國企業背書。平均來說CEO的任期只有五年,所以他們想要短期結果。他們對美國的長期利益不關心,工人的長期利益,我們的國家安全,或是別的任何東西。川普理解這一點,我認為和投資銀行家的意見相比,他更看重自己代表的那些選民的意見。」
Greg Autry: 「Well, first of all, we』ve got to realize we』ve had a ten-year growth spurt, so having a recession next year would not be a surprise. There are certainly a number of indicators that many of the markets, including the real estate and equity markets, are, as we say, long in the tooth, meaning that they』ve grown for so long that a correction is to be expected. So I don』t know that that won』t happen. The yield curve and other indicators suggest that it』s entirely possible. I would hope the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates at this point because that has helped move us to that position. But we』re in a really strong position and, if we underwent any normal recession, it wouldn』t be a significant problem. The problem with Goldman Sachs and most of the investment banks that control a lot of the financial media opinions, their interest is only in what happens next quarter and returning short-term profits because the analysts and traders at those companies retire early, and the CEOs did help back the multinational corporations. They』re only, on average, a CEO for five years. So they want short-term results. They don』t care about the long-term interests of the United States, the long-term interests of workers, our national security, or any of those other things. And Donald Trump understands that, and I don』t think he』s going to take their opinions more seriously than any of the other stakeholders he represents.」

接下來:美中(共)峰會後發生了什麼?
Coming up, what』s happened since the summit?

第3部分:峰會後美中(共)之間的角力
Part Three: Moves by the U.S. and Beijing After the Summit.

就在川普總統和習近平就貿易戰達成停火協議的同一天,12月1日,加拿大逮捕了華為公司的財務總監,孟晚舟。孟是華為的副董事長,還是華為創始人任正非的女兒。美國在那一周之前發出了對孟的逮捕令。一位加拿大法官在11月30日簽發了逮捕令,罪名是涉嫌欺詐。孟晚舟被指控於2013年,對美國金融機構有意隱瞞了華為和香港公司SkyCom的關係。SkyCom違反了美國的禁運規定把美國產品賣給了伊朗。華為是世界上最大的電信網絡設備供應商。在2004年,思科公司起訴華為盜竊自己的技術,用於開發路由器和交換機系列,反過來於思科競爭。在華為保證對產品修改設計後,思科撤回了起訴。
On December 1st, the same day President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed to a trade war truce, Canada arrested the chief financial officer of China』s Huawei Technologies, Meng Wanzhou. Meng is the deputy chair of Huawei』s board and the daughter of the company』s founder, Ren Zhengfei. The arrest warrant was issued by the United States a week earlier. A Canadian justice then issued a warrant on November 30th. Meng allegedly committed fraud in 2013 by lying to U.S. financial institutions about Huawei』s connection with Hong Kong company SkyCom, which reportedly sold U.S. goods to Iran in violation of U.S. sanctions. Huawei is the world』s largest maker of telecommunications network equipment. In 2004, CISCO sued Huawei for using stolen Cisco technology to develop a lineup of routers and switches sold in competition to the American company. Cisco later dropped the lawsuit in exchange for a promise from its rival to modify its product lineup.

在同一天,川普總統發推:「中(共)方回國後作了一些明確的表示。不能說我太幼稚,我真的相信習主席在會晤中作出的承諾。我們討論了所有的問題。」
On the same day, President Trump tweeted, quote, 「Very strong signals being sent by China once they returned home from their long trip, including stops, from Argentina. Not to sound naive or anything, but I believe President Xi meant every word of what he said at our long and hopefully historic meeting. ALL subjects discussed!」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):請安一鳴和陳破空為我們解讀川普總統的對華(共)態度,並展望美-中(共)貿易戰的前景。
What does all this say about the U.S.-China trade war and President Trump』s attitude toward China now? Let』s hear form Greg Autry and Pokong Chen again.

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「十二月一日,華為的CFO,也是創始人的女兒,孟晚舟在加拿大被捕。美國要求引渡她。你怎麼看這個事情?你認為這件事和貿易戰有關係嗎?」
「 On December 1st, Meng Wanzhou, Huawei C.F.O. and daughter of the founder of the company, was arrested in Canada for extradition to the U.S. What do you make of her arrest? Do you think it is related to the U.S.-China trade war?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「絕對有。某種程度上,不可能沒有,因為美國尋求的對中國的懲罰,不一定是關於產品的,海鷗關於知識產權盜竊和強制知識產權轉讓的行為。華為是偷竊美國知識產權的排頭兵,也是中共將互聯網和通信基礎設施塞進西方世界的工具,他們可以進一步利用來實施網絡間諜和工業間諜活動。所以逮捕孟是發出一個完美的信號。這項逮捕行動不一定是有意的安排,但是我在2013年在眾議院外交事務委員會關於中國的網絡間諜行動作證的時候就把華為作為頭號目標來看待。所以我對此不感到吃驚。」
Greg Autry: 「Absolutely. It, to some extent, couldn』t not be because the focus on the penalties that the U.S. is putting on China are not necessarily over the specific products on the list, but over the intellectual property theft and behavior that requires the transfer of intellectual property. And Huawei is like the poster child for stealing U.S. intellectual property and as a tool for the Chinese party to insert network infrastructure and communications infrastructure into Western countries that it can further use to inflict cyber espionage and industrial espionage on those countries. So it』s the perfect message to send. I don』t know whether the arrest was intentionally related to that, but Huawei has been a company that I identified back in 2013 when I testified to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on China cyber espionage as the primary target to look at. So I』m not surprised by that.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):「所以你認為這不是巧合?這反映了川普對中國的態度?」
「 So you think this is not a coincidence? It says something about trump』s attitude towards China?」

安一鳴(南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授/《致命中國》作者之一):「有可能。你可能也注意到川普政府開始對外國公司高管的簽證有所行動,可能甚至包括學生簽證,因為他們手裡有很多別的工具。他們不打算讓外國勢力繼續竊取美國資產。我認為他們會對這一點很強硬。關稅不是唯一的途徑。像我說過的,就算暫停徵關稅,他們也還可以對上述那些交流活動設限,或考慮其它一些制裁措施。」
Greg Autry:「 I think it』s possible. And, again, I think you might see that they take action on visas for corporate executives or maybe even for students or, who knows, because they』ve got a lot of other tools in their pocket and they don』t intend to let a foreign power continue to steal U.S. assets. And I think they』re going to be pretty strong about that. And tariffs are not the only way to do it. So if they put the tariffs on hold, like I said, they could look at those reciprocal rules, they could look at all these other issues.」

蕭茗(Host/ Simone Gao):在之前,人們都認為共產中國和習近平不可能做出結構性改變,因為這會改變中共如何運作經濟,如何運作國家,也就是中共如何保住權力。所以改變這些會要求某種形式的政治改革,這一直是中共不可打破的底線。同意做出結構性改變的話,習近平和中共是不是真的願意放棄底線?現在這麼想還太早了。只有一個辦法能找到答案,就是時間。請您繼續關注我們的節目,看川普是不是在美中貿易戰中會大獲全勝。感謝收看,我是蕭茗。您也可以關注我們的臉書或是Youtube頻道。下次節目再見。
Before, there was an understanding that communist China and Xi Jinping are unable to make structural changes because it would change how the Communist Party runs the economy, how it runs the country, and basically how it stays in power. So changing these would require political reform of some sort, which has always been its bottom line that can』t be broken. So by agreeing to these structural changes, will Xi Jinping and the communist regime really be giving up their bottom line? It is still hard to believe at this point. There is only one way to find out: time. So stay tuned to find out if Trump really will hit a homerun in the U.S.-China trade war. Thanks for watching. I am Simone Gao. Please like our Facebook page and subscribe to our YouTube channel at 《Zooming In with Simone Gao》. See you next time.


End

==============================================

鏈接:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVWMVBg1RPrDlakdmbyTKBA

=========================================
Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao
Editors:Julian Kuo Bonnie Yu Frank Lin Bin Tang York Du
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Interview Overdub: Kacey Cox
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang, Frank Yue Xiaofeng Zhang Juan Li
Cameraman:York Du Wu Wei Eric Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer: Bin Tang Merry Jiang
Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
《Zooming In》
December , 2018

=============================================

 

相關文章
評論