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【世事关心】川普能否与墨西哥左翼总统开启合作之路?

纽约时间: 2018-08-01 06:21 PM 
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【新唐人北京时间2018年08月02日讯】【世事关心】(475)川普能否与墨西哥左翼总统开启合作之路?
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墨西哥选出了一位新总统。这是否会影响到重开北美自由贸易协定谈判?
Mexico elected a new president; what is the prospect of a NAFTA renegotiation?

Stephen Moore(美国传统基金会〝经济增长计划〞访问学者):〝在我们华盛顿中期选举之前3、4个月或5个月里,他们能否通过新的北美自由贸易协定,我有点怀疑。而且那个时候如果民主党人控制了国会,那么通过的机会就更小了。〞
Steven Moore Soundbites: 〝I’m a little skeptical about whether they’re going to be able to get this done in the next three or four or five months before our midterm elections here in Washington, and then if the Democrats take over Congress, they will be more skeptical of giving Trump a victory on anything.〞

关于美国与墨西哥边境地区发生的家庭分离事件,有哪些不为人知的事实呢?
What are the facts about family separations at the border that people don’t hear about?

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝大家知道,这个问题后来证明被夸大了,几乎就是假新闻。例如,最近有大约12,000名未成年人偷渡进入美国,在这12,000人中,10,000个孩子没有父母。〞
Shawn Steel Soundbites: 〝You know, this is a – it turns out to be such an exaggerated issue, it’s almost fake news. For example, there’s some 12,000 minors that are involved right now, recently, in smuggling into the United States. Of the 12,000, 10,000 have no parents at all. 〞

在边境安全问题上,墨西哥、美国会联手合作吗?
Will Mexico and America be able to work on border security issues together?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。上周,墨西哥选出了一位左翼新总统­­——洛佩兹・奥夫拉多尔。他在竞选中呼吁终结腐败与贫富不均,他的获胜结束了体制革命党长达一个世纪的统治。与2016年美国总统大选结果非常相似的是,奥夫拉多尔的胜出,同样给墨西哥政坛带来了一场大地震。他不仅向控制墨西哥数十年之久的〝权力黑手党〞宣战,而且还在墨美关系问题上坚决捍卫墨西哥的利益。那么,未来美国与墨西哥之间的关系,在川普和奥夫拉多尔这两位彼此对立的平民主义者主导下,又会如何发展呢?本期节目我们就来分析一下两国之间最大的三个问题:移民、边境安全、和贸易。
Welcome to《 Zooming In》, I’m Simone Gao. Last week, Mexico elected a new president. Leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador who campaigned on ending corruption and economic inequality ended the century long dominance by the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Much like the 2016 presidential election in the U.S., Mr. Obrador’s win brought a political earthquake to his country. He not only pledged a war against the “mafia of powers” that has controlled Mexico for decades, but also stood up for Mexico in relations with its northern neighbor. So how will the future of U.S.-Mexico relations work with two populist presidents who are on opposite sides of the aisle? In this episode, we’ll analyze the three biggest issues in U.S.-Mexico relations: immigration, border security, and trade.

安德烈斯・曼纽尔・洛佩斯・奥夫拉多尔,在支持者中被称为AMLO。上周在墨西哥总统大选中赢得了全国53%的选票。与他最接近的对手只赢得了20%的选票。这次压倒性的胜利表明,墨西哥选民迫切希望根治多年来困扰国家的腐败和暴力。奥夫拉多尔的竞选承诺是:推翻被他称为墨西哥〝权力黑手党〞 、执政的制度革命党(PRI)。该党统治着墨西哥政坛,整个二十世纪基本上都是如此。近代史上,只是到了奥夫拉多尔才出现了第二位左倾候选人当选。
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO among supporters, won over 53 percent of nationwide votes in Mexico’s presidential election last week. His closest competitor won just 20 percent. The landslide win shows how frustrated Mexican voters are with the corruption and violence that has plagued the country for years. Obrador campaigned on the promise to oust what he called Mexico’s 〝mafia of power〞, referring to the governing Institutional Revolution Party, or PRI. The PRI dominated Mexican politics for most of the 20th century. Obrador is just the second left-leaning candidate elected in recent history.

候任总统奥夫拉多尔来自墨西哥南部。与全国其它地区相比,墨西哥南部比较贫困。他的支持者们认为,奥夫拉多尔代表了穷人和那些自感被前任领导人忽略了的民众的利益。
President-elect Obrador is from Southern Mexico, which is poor compared to the rest of the country. Supporters feel he represents the interests of the poor and others who felt ignored by previous leaders.

但是,奥夫拉多尔当选,未来将如何影响美国、墨西哥之间的关系?两位总统都是平民主义者、国家主义者,他们会彼此妥协吗?川普总统已打电话,向奥夫拉多尔表示祝贺,并预言他们之间将会建立起良好的关系。
But how will his election affect the future of U.S.-Mexico relations? Can two populist, nationalist presidents compromise? President Trump called to congratulate Obrador and predicts they’ll have a good relationship.

川普总统:〝我和墨西哥候任总统通了话。我们谈了一个半小时,谈得很好。我们的谈话涉及边境安全、贸易、北美自由贸易协定、和一项美墨双边协定。在很多议题上我们都谈得很好,我们两人关系处的不错。当然,许多事情还要看未来发展。〞
President Trump: 〝I spoke with the president-elect of Mexico. We had a great conversation, about a half and hour long. We talked about border security; we talked about trade; we talked about NAFTA; we talked about a seperate deal, just Mexico and the United States. We had a lot of good conversation. I think the relationship will be a very good one. We’ll see what happens.〞

奥夫拉多尔呼吁改善与美国之间的关系。
Obrador called for better relations with the U.S..

墨西哥候任总统奥夫拉多尔:〝我们愿意在友谊和发展的基础上建立与美国的关系。我们坚持美墨双方要互相尊重,同时一定要维护在美墨侨的利益。 〞
Andrés Manuel López Obrador( Mexican President-Elect): 〝We will search for a relationship with the U.S. government based on friendship and development, always inculcated with mutual respect and in defense of our compatriots, immigrants who live and work in that country.〞

墨西哥和美国都必须解决的一个主要的问题就是边境安全。今年5月,川普政府宣布对非法移民采取〝零容忍〞政策,授权对每一个非法入境者进行刑事起诉。这项政策产生的一个意想不到的后果是,在等待起诉期间孩子需要与父母分开。美国主流媒体一直在集中报导这一问题。6月20日,经过民众数周抗议后,川普总统签署了一项不让家人分开的行政命令。
One major issue both Mexico and the U.S. will have to work together on is border security. The Trump administration announced its 〝zero tolerance〞 approach to illegal immigration in May, which mandated criminal prosecution for each immigrant who enters illegally. An unintended consequence of the policy is that children were separated from their parents while they awaited prosecution. The U.S. mainstream media has been making a focused effort on reporting this issue. On June 20th, after weeks of protests, President Trump signed an executive order to keep families together.

大多数非法进入美国的移民来自中美洲。墨西哥驻美国大使费尔南德斯 7月3日在哈德逊研究所的一次活动中说,这其中的责任在中美洲各国和墨西哥,而不在美国。
Most migrants entering the U.S. illegally are from Central America. In a July 3rd event at the Hudson Institute, Mexican Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández said the responsibility is on Central American countries and Mexico, not the U.S.

费尔南德斯(墨西哥驻美国大使):〝我们必须从根本上解决移民问题,但是很难。 墨西哥和中美洲国家必须竭尽所能,让自己的国民能够在家乡安居乐业。美国对此没有责任,这是我们的责任和义务。我们欢迎美国政府在移民问题上的协助,我们欢迎长期以来为实现地区繁荣和稳定而采取的各项措施。我认为墨西哥和中美洲国家在解决移民问题上做得不够,这一点必须改变,我认为应该承认这一点。〞
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Mexican Ambassador :〝You need to address the root causes of migration, and that’s not easy. We must do everything we can -- Mexico, Central America -- to make sure that immigration is not a forced decision as it has happened in the past, majority of the cases. That’s not the responsibility of the United States. That’s on us, I think. We certainly welcome the support of the United States in that regard, and the measures that have been taken over the years to address prosperity and security in the region are welcome. I think we should do enough. We have not done enough. I think it is appropriate to recognize that. 〞

费尔南德斯大使称,要遏制非法移民,有三件重要的事情他们需要做。
Ambassador Gutiérrez Fernández says there are three important things they need to do to curb illegal immigration.

费尔南德斯(墨西哥驻美国大使):〝各国应该彼此合作,各尽所能,避免各自的国民因为生计无着落或其它原因背井离乡。另一个我们必须认真对待的问题是,在21世纪,始终都会有人口向北流动的现象。我认为所有各方都希望这种流动能够在有序、安全、与合法的条件下进行。我们有办法做到这一点吗?各国之间和各国内部为此都尽力了吗?最后,我们还必须解决贩卖人口问题,这是严重的犯罪,并且一直存在着。〞
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Mexican Ambassador: (clip 00008.MTS 09:38) Work together to do everything we can so people are not forced out of their countries because of lack of opportunity or any other reason. The second thing is that we should think carefully about -- there will continue to be movement of people because that’s just a fact of the century that we’re living in. I think everybody wants for that movement to occur in a way that’s legal, safe, and orderly. Do we have sufficient avenues for that? Are we working enough among the countries and within the countries to make sure that that is happening? And then, finally, we need to address very head-on human smuggling and trafficking, which is terrible. And it’s happening.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):为了了解美国的立场,我采访了共和党全国委员会委员、SHAWN STEEL 律师事务所创始人兼首席执行官肖恩・斯蒂尔。他不在加利福尼亚州。
For a U.S. perspective, I talked to Shawn Steel, Republican National Committeeman, the founder and CEO of Shawn Steel Law Firm. He is based out of California.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您对川普总统的‘零容忍’移民政策,和终止家庭分离的行政命令有何评价? 川普总统是否持了中庸之道?〞
〝How would you comment on President Trump’s “zero tolerance” immigration policy combined with the executive order of ending family separations? Is it the right balance?〞

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝‘零容忍’政策是为了尝试修复支离破碎的美国移民系统。美国拥有全世界最宽大的移民政策。我们欢迎每年超过一百万的合法移民、五十万名国际留学生,以及数十万长期签证持有者来到美国。在这一方面没有一个国家—— 世界上其它国家的数字加起来,也远不及美国。然而,有太多人在南部边境钻空子,未经许可进入美国,没有合法身份证明,这扰乱了我们的移民系统。川普总统正试图改变这一局势。奥巴马时期,情形每况愈下。前任多数总统都忽视了移民政策的重要性,国会对此也没有采取什么措施,而川普总统正试图采取果断并且大胆的举措,以阻止人们未经许可、未经合法途径来到这里。比如,有数百万亚洲人已合法地申请移民美国、和正在等待申请被审批。以我们家为例,我们也得等,我的几位亲人也是等了10年才来到美国的,这是合法的途径。而那些非法越境的人、作弊的人、不排队的人,岂止是不公平,而且是不道德的、违法的。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝 It’s an attempt to fix a very broken system. American immigration is the most generous in the world. We happily accept over one million legal immigrants a year; we happily accept 500 thousand students a year, and then many hundreds of thousands of long-term visa holders. No country – all the countries in the world combined do not equal how generous the United States is. However, we have too many people at the Southern border taking advantage, coming to the country without permission, without paperwork, that are upsetting our immigration system. So Trump is trying to fix it. Obama made it much, much worse. Most presidents have ignored it, Congress doesn’t do much about it, so Trump is trying to take something decisive and bold to discourage people from coming here without permission, without trying to go through the paperwork. For example, Simone, I’ll mention that there’s several million Asians that have applied legally, that are waiting their turn. In my family’s case, we had to wait, for some family members, 10 years to get to America. That’s the right way to do it. People that are kind of getting to the border, cheating, jumping in line, not only is it unfair, it’s immoral and illegal.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝家庭分离是眼下的热门话题。很显然,我们不愿意看到儿童与父母分离。然而,举一个相似的例子,如果美籍家长犯罪入狱,不得不与子女分离,不也是时常发生吗?〞
〝Family separation is a big topic now. Obviously, we don’t want children to be separated from their families. However, how does this situation compare to, say, when an American single parent commits a crime and needs to be sent to jail and be separated from his or her child?〞

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝大家知道,这一情况被夸大其词,几乎就是假新闻。例如,最近有大约12,000名未成年人偷渡进入美国。其中的10,000个孩子没有父母。他们中的一些人年仅六岁,就被一些蛇头带到了美国边境。我们发现的是,在某些情况下这些问题要归咎于孩子的父母。孩子的父母或亲戚带着他们,穿过危险的地区偷渡进美国。这对孩子们来说很危险。例如,从危地马拉偷渡到墨西哥的年轻女性、小女孩,其中80%的人在这1,500英里的旅程中被性骚扰。所以那些鼓励孩子来美国的人、他们的父母,正在对自己的孩子做出可怕的、违法的行为。但是,请记住,85%的孩子既没有父亲也没有母亲,所以不是什么分离的问题。然而,因为我们是一个慷慨的国家,不像亚洲的一些国家,例如, 日本人永远不会容忍类似情况发生;韩国人也不会容忍,每当有非法移民偷渡进入时,他们会被迅速带走,逮捕和遣返。在美国,我们养活他们,给他们地方住,让他们有学上,然后在经历了漫长的法律程序后,他们才被驱逐出境。这太不应该了,大多数美国人对此都很不满。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝You know, this is a – it turns out to be such an exaggerated issue, it’s almost fake news. For example, there’s some 12,000 minors that are involved right now, recently, in smuggling into the United States. Of the 12,000, 10,000 have no parents at all. Some of them are as young as six years old, and they’re pushed to cross the border by some coyote, by some smuggler, human smuggler. What we’re discovering is an atrocious human rights problem created, in some cases, by the parents. Parents or relatives of the children are bringing their kids, they’re smuggling their kids through dangerous territory. It’s dangerous for the kids. For example, young women, young girls that are smuggled from Guatemala to Mexico, 80 percent of them get molested by somebody in the 1,500 mile journey. So the people that are encouraging children to come, the parents that bring them, are doing a terrible, wrongful act against their own children. But, remember, 85 percent of the children don’t have parents from either side, so there’s no separation, and, yet, because we’re a generous country, unlike every country in Asia, for example – the Japanese would never tolerate this; the Koreans would never tolerate it. Whenever you have illegal people coming there, they’re promptly taken, arrested, and removed. In America, we feed them, we house them, we give them schools, we go through a long legal process, then they’re deported. It’s gone too far, and most Americans are upset.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝好的,那么对于那15%与父母分离的移民儿童,他们的情形与那些因为父母犯罪入狱,而不得不单独生活的美国儿童,是否有相似之处?〞
〝Yeah, but even for those 15% who are separated from their families, how does their situation compared to, for instance, an American citizen who got separated from his children because he committed crime?〞

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝我们有成千上万的被监禁人口,他们的孩子没有与父母一起关在监狱里,也不应该这样。 一个人被关进监狱,他也不可能再照顾孩子了。 如果一个被判刑的人正好怀孕了,分娩后,孩子就会被从监狱里带走,送到寄养家庭。 通常寄养家庭并不是每个都会对孩子视如己出,但也总比让犯了罪的父母抚养要好得多。 对那些非法越境的孩子的父母来说,也是这样。 他们犯了罪, 他们让他们的孩子处于极大的危险之中,他们知道这相当危险, 应该尽快将孩子送回自己的国家,立刻。 麻烦的是我们有太多律师告诉法院要延迟审理,一推再推, 这对孩子们来说实际上也不好。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝 We have hundreds of thousands of people that are in jail, with their children not going to jail with their parents, nor should they. You have somebody that’s in jail, they’re usually unfit to take care of children anyhow. Sometimes you’ll have a woman who’s convicted of a crime who’s pregnant, and as soon as she has the delivery, the baby is removed from her, in jail, and sent to a foster home. Usually the foster home is not ideal, but it’s a lot better than a criminal parent. Same thing applies when you have parents that are going across the border. They’re committing a criminal act. They’re putting their children in great danger. They know it’s great danger. They should be promptly returned to their country with their children. Promptly. The trouble is we have too many lawyers that go to court that delay, delay, delay. And that actually isn’t good for the children either. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝有人认为媒体报导的时间点和规模是出于政治的考量,是为了中期选举的需要,您意下如何?〞
〝Some people are saying the timing and the mass media’s reporting of this issue reveals political motives, for example, it is related to the midterm elections; do you agree?〞

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝是这样。 《洛杉矶时报》、哥伦比亚大学新闻学院,以及许多组织对当今美国的记者行业做了详尽的调查, 90%以上是民主党人,民主党左翼, 这是一群充满敌意的人群。 中共进驻美国的大多数主流媒体都是左翼,并没有报导真相, 只是报导了记者的想法, 所以基本上它是一种宣传形式。你知道吗, 其实大多数美国人都清楚这一点, 如今大多数美国人不信任美国记者。 这就是为什么你看到一些报纸相继破产、大多数主流媒体都没有获得好评。 在某些情况下,一个二手车销售员都比《洛杉矶时报》记者更有信誉。〞
Shawn Steel: Of course. Let’s understand that the LA Times, the Columbia University School of Journalism, many organizations have done a detailed survey of what is a journalist, what is a reporter. Well over 90 percent are Democrats, are to the left of Democrats. It’s a hostile organization. Most of mainstream media in the world, coming out of China, coming in the United States, is left wing and doesn’t report truth. It reports the journalists’ ideas. So it’s basically a form of propaganda. And guess what? Most Americans know that. The majority of Americans nowadays do not trust American journalists. That’s why you’re seeing newspapers collapse, that’s why you’re seeing most of the mainstream media not getting good ratings. In some cases, a used car salesman will have more credibility than an LA Times reporter.

接下来,美国与墨西哥如何解决边境安全问题?
Coming up,How can the U.S. and Mexico improve border security?

美国和墨西哥之间,另一个关键的问题是边境安全,怎样阻止毒品、武器、违禁品和人员的非法流动。其中一项策略是修建边境墙。这一策略可以追溯到1996年,当时美国国会首次授权修建边境墙,把它作为《非法移民改革与移民责任法》的一部分。2006年,美国国会通过了《安全围墙法》。法案要求沿700英里长的西南边境建墙。但是,这堵墙却一直没有完成。修建该墙是川普2016年竞选纲领的重要部分。2017年1月,川普签署行政命令,开始兴建美加边境墙。
against the illegal movement of drugs, weapons, contraband, and people. One strategy is the border wall, which goes back to 1996 when Congress first mandated its construction as part of the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act. In 2006, Congress passed the Secure Fence Act, which required fencing along 700 miles of the southwest border. That was never completed. The wall was a major part of President Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. In January 2017, the president signed an executive order to begin construction.

尽管有人批评边境墙没什么效果,但是,魁北克大学的Elisabeth Vallet发现,已有65个国家已建成边境墙或正在兴建之中。
Despite criticism that border walls aren’t effective, Elisabeth Vallet from Quebec University found 65 countries that have already completed or are building border walls.

无论边境墙是否有效,要解决这些问题就必须治本。贩毒集团引起的暴力事件,源自美、墨两国内部根深蒂固的社会问题:美国对毒品的需求,墨西哥及中美、南美的贫困。那些找不到工作、没有受过教育的年轻人通常别无选择,只能投奔贩毒集团。
Whether or not border walls are effective, the root causes of these problems still need to be addressed. Much of the violence caused by drug cartels is rooted in both sides of the border: demand for drugs in the U.S. and poverty in Mexico as well as Central and South America. Young people who can’t get jobs and aren’t educated often have no choice but to join drug cartels.

7月4日,墨西哥当选总统奥夫拉多尔承诺,将拨款75亿美元用于青年就业培训以及援助老年人。这也可能会有助于美国打击边境暴力。
On July 4th, Mexican President-elect Obrador promised $7.5 billion U.S. dollars for youth job training and aid for the elderly. It could also help the U.S. curb border violence.

墨西哥驻美大使费尔南德斯说,美国和墨西哥要制止毒品和暴力,不能仅靠打击贩毒集团头目。
Mexican Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández says the U.S. and Mexico can’t stop the drugs and violence by just going after cartel leaders.

费尔南德斯(墨西哥驻美国大使):〝我们需要做的,不是简单的追求抓了多少毒枭头目,而是怎么打掉里面的商业模式。如果你看一下墨西哥前任总统涅托上任伊始的数据,大约抓了100多个(具体多少,请不要引用我说的数字),但是已确定的有122个。我想,这些人当中有108个要么在蹲大牢,要么已经死了。如果要按前面那个说法,这已经相当成功了。然而,事实似乎并非如此。我们需要做的,就是打掉它的商业模式,因为如果商业模式不打掉,像我们一样,你就还有一个市场存在。毒品也罢、武器也罢、金钱也罢、其它什么也罢,如果我们不考虑这个供应和需求,我们就不可能成功。〞
Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández( Mexican Ambassador): 〝We need to focus more on interrupting the business model than simply going after the heads of the cartels. If you look at the number when President Pena Nieto started, there were around a hundred, and please don’t quote me on the exact numbers, but there were 122 identified targets. I think 108 of them are either behind bars or are now dead. According to that metric, there’s a rather firm success on that. And, yet, that does not seem to be the case. What we need to do is disrupt the business model because, if you don’t disrupt the business model and you have a market like we do, and we don’t consider the supply and demand of whether it’s drugs, weapons, money, etc., we’re not going to be successful.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao): 正如大使所说,虽然墨西哥现任总统在清除街头毒枭方面取得了很多进展,但是这并没有带来太大改变。墨西哥城谘询公司〝Etellekt〞称,上周的选举是历史上流血最多的一次,他们估计有100多人在选举中丧生。而且不可避免的是,墨西哥的暴力事态会蔓延到美国。那么,我们该如何处理边境安全问题呢?我们现在的所做所为,是不是尽力了呢?还请斯蒂尔先生回答一下。
As the ambassador stated, Mexico’s current president has made a lot of progress in taking cartel leaders off the streets, yet it hasn’t made much of a difference. Last week’s elections were the bloodiest in history, according to a Mexico City-based consulting firm called Etellekt. They estimated over 100 people were killed in connection with the elections. Inevitably, violence in Mexico will spill over into the United States too. So how do we deal with border security? And are we doing enough? Here’s Shawn Steel again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝美国和墨西哥边境面临的一个主要问题是,暴力、毒品和武器走私、人口拐卖。您认为川普政府目前采取的措施,除了能把毒枭绳之以法之外,是否还能够打掉这个商业模式、包括供应和需求两方面?〞
〝 One major issue for the U.S.-Mexico border is violence and the trafficking of drugs, weapons, and people. Do you think the Trump administration is putting enough effort in disrupting the business model, the supply and demand, instead of just targeting the heads of the criminal groups?〞

Shawn Steel(共和党全国委员会委员/Shawn Steel法律事务所创始人兼CEO):〝我认为我们的外交政策、对边境安全的管控正在彻底改变。 这种改变不会一下子就发生,还需要一个过程。 需要明智的领导人、管理层以及民众的支持来实现这一转变。边防巡逻队被民主党左翼嘲笑了多年。 当然现在来说,民主党左派正在攻击ICE,即移民及海关执法局, 他们提出了一个非常激进的议案,即要求取消ICE, 大多数美国人对此感到不满。 当然,作为一名共和党人,我很高兴,因为民主党人可能会因此在中期选举中惨败。 但总的来说,美国的边境和外交政策有了新的改变。 与过去相比,人们对美国的尊重程度要高很多。而且对违法者而言,他们将被更有效的制裁 ,特别是那些通过边境走私枪支、毒品,以及帮助非法移民偷渡的人。〞
Shawn Steel: 〝Well, I think that the entire approach of our foreign policy, of border security, is radically changing. It doesn’t change overnight, but it takes a process. You have to get good leaders, good managers, good people. The Border Patrol has been laughed at for years by the Democrat left. Now, of course, the Democrat left is attacking ICE, our internal security for immigration. And they’ve taken a very radical proposition that they’re calling for ICE to be abolished. Most Americans are offended with that. But there’s a absolute new attitude among the American border and foreign policy in general. And you’re seeing a lot more respect for America than there has been in the past. And you’re seeing more active prosecutions against lawbreakers, particularly those that are running guns, drugs, and people through the border. 〞

接下来,美国和墨西哥之间的贸易战,以及在奥夫拉多尔和川普掌权之下,重启北美自由贸易协定谈判的前景如何呢?
Coming up,How will the U.S.-Mexico trade war and NAFTA renegotiations look like under AMLO and Trump?

美国和墨西哥之间的第三个主要的问题是贸易。今年5月,川普总统终止了对墨西哥和美国其他盟友的钢铁和铝的关税豁免。作为回应,墨西哥对价值近30亿美元的美国商品加征了关税,包括猪肉、钢铁、乳酪、威士忌酒、苹果和其它商品。上周四,墨西哥开始实施第二轮报复性关税,主要针对美国的农产品。
The third major issue between the U.S. and Mexico is trade. In May, President Trump ended exemptions to the steel and aluminum tariffs for Mexico and other U.S. allies. In response, Mexico retaliated with its own tariffs on nearly $3 billion dollars’ worth of U.S. goods including pork, steel, cheese, bourbon, apples, and other goods. Last Thursday, Mexico imposed its second set of tariffs, which are mostly on U.S. agricultural goods.

只要美国继续对墨西哥的钢铁和铝加征关税,墨西哥也将继续对美加征关税。
Mexican tariffs will remain in place as long as the U.S. maintains tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum.

还有北美自由贸易协定。自2017年8月以来,墨西哥、加拿大、和美国一直试图重启三方会谈。川普总统曾威胁,如果无法达成一份更好的协议,美国将干脆退出北美自由贸易协定。
There’s also the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. have been trying since August 2017 to renegotiate the trilateral agreement. President Trump has threatened in the past to pull the U.S. out of it altogether if a better deal can’t be negotiated.

费尔南德斯大使称,美国和墨西哥之间要达成北美自由贸易协定,最大的会谈障碍是:贸易逆差、汽车工业以及劳工和环保标准。
Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández says the biggest NAFTA negotiation gaps between the U.S. and Mexico are the trade deficit, auto sector, and labor and environmental standards.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):我采访了美国传统基金会经济增长专案杰出访问学者Stephen Moore先生。让我们来听一听他对北美自由贸易协定和美国、墨西哥贸易谈判的看法。
I asked Stephen Moore, the Distinguished Visiting Fellow for the Project for Economic Growth at The Heritage Foundation, what he thinks about NAFTA and U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普总统最近表示,他对北美自由贸易协定谈判不满意,不会在中期选举前签署新的协议。您认为这么做好吗?〞
〝 President Trump recently said he was not happy with the NAFTA negotiations and would not sign a new deal before the midterm elections. Do you think that is a good move? 〞

Stephen Moore(美国传统基金会〝经济增长计划〞访问学者):〝我是NAFTA的坚定支持者。 我认为NAFTA对整个北美大陆都有好处,我希望看到NAFTA与时俱进,因为NAFTA已经实施了20多年了。 川普总统与加拿大和墨西哥的谈判,若能达成一项新协议,将对局势非常有利,因为这两个国家是我们最重要的两个盟友,我认为这对三国的经济都有益处,因为我们也将在未来几年和几十年内,同时与亚洲和欧洲竞争。〞
Steven Moore: 〝I’m a strong supporter of NAFTA. I think NAFTA has been good for the whole continent, and I would like to see this – it needs to be modernized because it’s some 20-or-so years old. But it would be smart for Donald Trump to negotiate a new agreement with Canada and Mexico because those are two of our most important allies, and I think it would be good for the economies of the entire continent as we compete against Asia and Europe in the years and decades ahead.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝有批评人士一直说,川普总统应该把美国的盟友,像加拿大、墨西哥和欧盟,统统拉到他这一边来,在贸易方面抗衡中国。但川普的做法恰恰相反,而是与美国的盟友为敌,您同意一些评论人士的看法吗? 〞
〝 Critics have been saying President Trump should bring America’s allies, such as Canada, Mexico and the E.U., along in his trade confrontation against China. But he is doing the opposite by making enemies with America’s allies. Do you agree?〞

Stephen Moore(美国传统基金会〝经济增长计划〞访问学者):〝我认同的是,如果川普能够将精力集中在中国大陆,将对局势产生有利影响,因为中国大陆在经济往来中是最重要的国家,同时也是最大的欺诈者。 他们一直在窃取我们的知识产权,而且我认为,如果我们打算与中共开战,而且现在贸易战也终于打响了,你确实希望你的盟友站在你一边。 因此,我认为现在对欧洲一些国家和加拿大、这些我们的盟友国征收汽车关税和钢铁关税并不适时,由于现在与中国大陆贸易关系紧张,我认为川普会希望我们的盟友站在美国一边。〞
Steven Moore: 〝Well, I do agree that it would be a positive thing if Trump could focus his energies on China because China is really the country that matters the most economically and that I think has been the biggest cheater. And they’ve been stealing our intellectual property, and I think, if we’re going to pick a fight with China, which I think it’s about time we did, you do want your allies on your side. So I think that some of the auto tariffs and the steel tariffs that have antagonized some of our European and Canadian allies probably were not well timed, and now we’ve got this developing trade tiff going on with China, and I think Trump’s going to want our allies on his side. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝是的,但他们并不站在川普一边。那些报复川普对铝和钢铁加征关税的人,他们瞄准的是对共和党而言在政治、经济上都很重要的产品和地区。尽管美国经济现在表现不错,但川普总统能承受多少来自国内的压力呢?〞
〝 Yeah, but they are not on his side, and those retaliating against Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel are targeting products and regions important politically and economically to Republicans. Although the U.S. economy is doing well, but still, how much domestic pressure can President Trump take?〞

Stephen Moore(美国传统基金会〝经济增长计划〞访问学者):〝毫无疑问,特别是在中共和美国之间,贸易问题上剑拔弩张。新的关税已经生效,中国大陆现在也正威胁要对美国征收新的关税。川普甚至说我们可能会对来自中国大陆的所有东西征收关税,每年5000亿美元,这肯定会伤害消费者的利益。但我想说的是,大多数美国人都认为,不能再继续忍受中共占我们的便宜,因为中美之间没有公平的竞争环境,我们购买了5000亿美元中国大陆商品,但他们只从我们这里购买了1500亿美元,还窃取了我们的知识产权。所以必须迫使中共做出重大让步,让我们拭目以待。如果我们拥有像德国、法国,以及英国、加拿大这样的盟友,那将会有所帮助,因为这样会对中共施加更大的压力。但我确实认为,川普最终希望降低关税,而不是征收更高的关税。他希望所有国家降低关税,希望降到零,这样我们才能有一个真正的自由贸易世界,但是我们离实现那一步还很远。〞
Steven Moore:〝 Well, look, there’s no question that there’s a tense time right now for trade, especially between China and the United States. The new tariffs have gone into effect, and China is now threatening new tariffs on us, and Trump even said that we could possibly impose tariffs on everything that comes in from China, all 500 billion dollars a year, and that would be a – that would hurt consumers for sure. But I would say this: there’s a feeling among, I think, a majority of Americans that we cannot continue to live with the status quo where China takes advantage of us, where we don’t have a level playing field, where we buy 500 billion dollars of their products, but they only buy 150 billion from us, and also the theft of our intellectual property. So there’s got to be some major concessions from China, and we’ll see if that happens. It would be helpful if we had our allies like Germany and France and the United Kingdom and Canada on our side because that way it puts more pressure on China. But I do think, in the end, Donald Trump wants lower tariffs, not higher tariffs. He wants all the countries to lower their tariffs, hopefully to zero, so we have a true free trade paradise. But we’re long way off from that right now. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝所以,以您之见,在纠正不公平的贸易行为这一点上,美国是否到了一个‘如果现在不干,什么时候干?’的时候了?〞
〝 So in your opinion, for America, in terms of correcting unfair trade practices, It’s a “if not now, when?” kind of moment?〞

Stephen Moore(美国传统基金会〝经济增长计划〞访问学者):〝这是关键问题。我认为很多美国人相信——看,美国经济现在多么强大。本周我们又收到了一份重磅报导,美国经济可能会在2018年第二季度增长4.5%,而这正是很多欧洲国家经济放缓,中国经济放缓的时候。我认为川普确信‘新的美国时刻’已经到来。正是我们显示力量、摆脱被占便宜的不利地位之时。我们知道,中国领导人说,美国正在对中国发动贸易战,这是历史上最大的贸易战之一。而且我认为川普会说的是,中美之间的贸易战已经开展了10年或15年,而我们正在输给中国大陆。我们必须通过报复达成一个公平的贸易环境。这一点终究会实现,但我不知道这需要两个月、六个月还是一年或两年才能实现。〞
Steven Moore:〝 Well, I think that’s the point. I think that a lot of Americans believe that – look, the United States’ economy is very strong right now. We got another blockbuster jobs report this week. I think we’re going to get, potentially, another 4 ½ percent growth for the second quarter for 2018, and this is coming at a time when a lot of the European countries’ economies have been slowing down, and China’s economy has been slowing down. I think Trump really believes that this is the American moment. This is the time for us to flex our muscle and to really stop being taken advantage of. You know, China, the Beijing leaders said that the United States is waging a trade war, one of the biggest trade wars in history. And I think what Donald Trump would say is we’ve been in a trade war for 10 or 15 years, and we’re losing against China. And we’ve got to start retaliating in ways that level this playing field. I think in the end that’s going to happen, but I don’t know if it’s going to take two months or six months or a year or two years. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):墨西哥当选总统奥夫拉多尔将于12月1日正式上任。尽管川普总统和奥夫拉多尔总统都已积极表态,但二人在国内问题兑现承诺的同时,能否在移民、边境安全和贸易方面展开合作,尚有待观察。但是,有一点是肯定的,人们都正在寻求改变政治现状,也许两位总统都能在多年来困扰美国和墨西哥的重大问题上取得进展。请继续关注,我们会给您带来其它地方看不到的独特视角。要找到我们,请搜索〝Zooming In with Simone Gao〞, 感谢您的收看,我们下周再见。
Mexican President-elect López Obrador takes office on December 1st. Although both President Trump and the Mexican president-elect have started on a positive note, it remains to be seen whether or not they can work together on immigration, border security, and trade while also keeping their promises on domestic issues. One thing’s for certain, people are looking for a change to the political status quo. Maybe these two can make progress on the major issues that have been plaguing the U.S. and Mexico for years. Stay tuned. We’ll bring you perspectives that you won’t see elsewhere. To find us, search for〝Zooming In with Simone Gao.〞, Thanks for watching, and see you next week.



=================================================

Producer:Simone Gao Yolanda Yao
Writer:Simone Gao Jess Beatty Michelle Wan
Editors:Julian Kuo Melodie Von Bin Tang
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:Wei Wu Eric Zhang
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang Frank Yue Michelle Wan Xiaofeng Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer:Bin Tang Sherry Chang Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

New Tang Dynasty Television
August, 2018

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