X
你喜歡這篇文章嗎?
按讚接收更多精選文章!

【世事关心】北韩威胁退出朝美峰会 实为中朝幕后攻略

纽约时间: 2018-05-25 04:21 PM 
 ( 自动连播 )
点击下载观看Embed 1:   Embed 2:
【新唐人北京时间2018年05月26日讯】【世事关心】(469)金正恩取消了与韩国的会谈,其背后的真实意图是什么?〝中共国家主席习近平有可能影响金正恩〞,川普说的对吗?
广告

Kim Jong Un cancels talks with South Korea. What is the real reason behind it?
金正恩取消了与韩国的会谈,其背后的真实原因是什么?

川普(美国总统):〝中共国家主席习近平有可能影响金正恩。〞
〝The president of China, President Xi, could be influencing Kim Jong Un.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):川普说的有道理吗?
Does president Trump have a point?

文昭(资深评论员):〝我认为中共在其中发挥了作用。中共当前的处境有明显的动机与金正恩协调行动步骤。〞
〝I believe Beijing played a role in it. By its current situation Beijing has clear motives to match up North Korea. 〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任): 〝我个人认为金正恩之所以如此反应,更多是考虑到即将到来的文在寅与川普的会晤。〞
〝I personally think that the greater influence might be the fact that Moon is about to travel to Washington to meet Trump.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您认为川-金会能达成协议吗?如果能,那么中共将面临怎样的情势?〞
〝 Do you think Trump and Kim can actually strike a deal? If so, where would China be in the new dynamic after such an agreement?〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝 从中共的角度来看,美朝之间达成一个坏的协议反而是好事。即使无法让朝鲜无核化,维持现状对中共来说也是好的 。〞
〝A bad deal from China’s perspective will probably be seen as good because it will perpetuate the status quo even if it might not resolve in complete North Korean denuclearization. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):大家好!欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。是真的,金正恩又变卦了,他取消了与南韩的高级会谈。这出乎人们的意料,因为前一天还一切正常,他关闭了一处核基地;释放了三名美国人质;和南韩总统文在寅在板门店聚首。但是我们需谨记:金正恩的本质是不会变的。虽说他也许比他的祖父、父亲更擅长在国际舞台上纵横捭阖。但是他的对手也换人了,川普总统和他的前任们也不一样了。金正恩想重施故伎保住金家王朝,但是川普决心开创新纪元。事情究竟会如何发展?让我们在这一期的《世事关心》里探讨。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao. Yes, Kim Jong-un flipped again by cancelling the meeting with the South. This is surprising considering up until the day before the cancellation, Kim had been smiling. He closed a nuclear test site, released 3 US hostages, and walked back and forth with South Korean president Moon Jae-in over the Korean border. But Kim is Kim. We should never forget that. This Kim might be different in a way that he is more skilled than his father and grandfather at his maneuvers on the international stage. However, his counterpart is also different. President Trump is neither president Clinton nor president Bush or Obama. Kim wants to repeat history, but Trump wants to make history. How will this match proceed? Let’s explore in this episode of 《Zooming In》.

上周,朝鲜在约定的谈判时间之前的几小时,突然取消与韩国的高层会谈。朝鲜国家电视台宣布:〝南韩当局已完全失去理智,他们应该对双方的高层会谈受到破坏负全责,对双边关系中出现的困难和障碍负全责。鉴于美国与南韩当局联合举行了针对北韩的富有挑衅性的军事讹诈行动,美国应重新考虑已列入重要议事日程的北韩与美国的高峰会谈。〞
Last week, North Korea abruptly canceled its high-level talks with South Korea just hours before they were scheduled to begin. North Korea’s state television made an announcement:〝The South Korean authorities, lost all senses, should be held wholly accountable for the scuttled North-South high-level talks and the difficulties and obstacles in the way of the North-South relations. The US will have to think twice about the fate of the North Korea-US summit being now high on the agenda in respect of a provocative military racket against North Korea in league with the South Korean authorities.〞

Footage of NKorea’s announcement

朝鲜中央通讯社(KCNA)发表了一项声明,声明援引朝鲜外交部第一副外相金桂冠的话说:〝如果川普政府‘真正致力于’改善与朝鲜的关系,他们将获得相应的回应。但是,如果他们企图把我们逼到一个角落,只是迫使我们单方面弃核,我们将不再对此类会谈感兴趣,将不得不重新考虑即将召开的峰会。〞他还称,朝鲜无意以弃核换取美国的经济补偿。
A statement published by the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) quoted Kim Kye Gwan,North Korea's First Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, saying 〝If the Trump administration was‘genuinely committed’to improving ties with Pyongyang,they will receive a deserving response. But if they try to push us into a corner and force only unilateral nuclear abandonment, we will no longer be interested in that kind of talks and will have to reconsider the upcoming summit.〞 He also said North Korea is not interested in U.S. economic compensation in exchange for North Korea’s abandonment of nuclear weapons.

声明还引用川普的国家安全顾问约翰・博尔顿前些时候的言论,称朝鲜弃核可以参考利比亚模式。
The statement also referenced earlier comments made by John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, about Libya being a potential model for North Korean denuclearization.

2003年12月,利比亚前领导人卡扎菲在与美国进行了数月谈判之后,撤销了他的核武器、化学武器和生物武器项目。但是后来,卡扎菲后悔了。他认为弃核得到的回报太少。他还不满美国在与利比亚关系正常化、迫使以色列撤除核武器方面进展缓慢。2011年,阿拉伯之春爆发,在北约部队的帮助下,利比亚政府被推翻,卡扎菲本人被起义军击毙。
The Libyan former leader Moammar Gadhafi dismantled his nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs in December 2003 after months of negotiations with the U.S. Afterwards, Gadhafi considered it too small of a reward for Libya for giving up its nuclear weapons program. He was also dissatisfied at the United States' slowness in normalizing relations with Libya and in pressuring Israel to denuclearize. The Libyan government was overthrown in the Arab Spring in 2011 with the help of NATO forces, and Gadhafi was shot dead by rebels.

金桂冠认为,博尔顿的言论是〝用心非常险恶,企图把利比亚或伊拉克曾经的命运,强加到我们这个有尊严的国家身上。这两个国家因为整个屈服于大国而崩溃。〞
Kim Kye Gwan refers to Bolton’s comments as 〝an awfully sinister move to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding the whole of their countries to big powers.〞

然而,周五川普总统表示〝利比亚模式〞不适用于朝鲜。
On Friday, however, President Trump dismissed talk of applying the〝Libyan model〞to North Korea.

川普(美国总统):〝我们在考虑朝鲜问题的时候,根本就没想到过利比亚模式。我们把利比亚这个国家毁掉了,那个国家被毁了,我们没有协议保护卡达菲,利比亚模式是一个很不同的模式。对于金正恩,我们是想让他待在朝鲜,待在自己的国家,让他继续执政。〞
〝Well, the Libyan model isn't a model that we have at all when we're thinking of North Korea. In Libya we decimated that country. That country was decimated. There was no deal to keep Gadhafi. The Libyan model that was mentioned was a much different deal. This would be with Kim Jong Un, something where he'd be there, he'd be in his country, he'd be running his country.〞

不管金氏当局出于何种原因突然改变了主意,但考虑到仅仅在一周前朝鲜释放了三名美国人质,这一举动还是令人惊讶的。就在一天前,朝鲜似乎已经关闭了一处核试验基地。几周前,金正恩第一次越过边境进入韩国,与韩国总统文在寅会晤。早在今年3月份,韩国国家安全顾问告诉记者,金正恩邀请川普会面。他还说,金正恩〝对韩美之间例行联合军事演习必须继续进行表示理解。〞
Despite the reasons the Kim regime gave for this sudden change of mind, the move is still surprising considering just a week earlier North Korea released three American hostages. Just a day before, it appeared to have shut down a nuclear test site. Weeks before, Kim Jong-un walked across the border into South Korea for the first time and met South Korean President Moon Jae-in. And back in March, South Korea's national security adviser told reporters Kim had invited Trump to meet. He also said that Kim 〝understands that the routine joint military exercises between Korea and the United States must continue.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):为什么会出现这个突如其来的变故?我们必须考虑另外一个动向。事发前一个星期,金正恩会见了中共国家主席习近平,那是他们在一个月内的第二次会晤。这个变故还恰好发生在刘鹤访美,展开贸易谈判之前。中共是否插手此事?我征询了外交委员会朝鲜问题高级学者,对朝政策研究室主任斯科特・施奈德。他认为,事件的主因确实是美韩军事演习和利比亚的先例。对此我做了近一步的询问。
Then how did the sudden change come about? There is another important event we need to take into account. A week before Kim’s dramatic turn, he met with Chinese president Xi Jinping for the second time in a month. The cancellation announcement also came right before Liu He’s upcoming U.S. trip for trade negotiations. Does China play a role in this? I spoke with Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Snyder believes the reasons for Kim’s withdrawal are indeed US-Korea military drill and Libya. I followed up with this question.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝今年三月,南韩国家安全顾问告诉媒体,金正恩向川普发出会晤邀请,他还对美韩举行例行的军演表示了理解,当时说的好好的,为什么现在反倒成了一个问题?〞
〝What’s puzzling about the military drill is that back in March, the South Korea national security adviser told the media that Kim Jong-un invited Trump to meet and that he understood the routine joint military exercises between Korea and the U.S. must continue. Then why is it a problem now?〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝那时候讨论的军演是指每年三月美国与韩国联合进行的军事演习。今年,这个军演被推迟到了4月。4月27日,朝鲜与韩国的领导人会面了,并签署了板门协议。协议中双方认可任何一方都不会进行给对方带来威胁的军事演习。协议中的语言含糊,没有明确定义指的是什么样的军事演习。我认为朝鲜只是想看看他能争取到什么。朝鲜认为这次军演的意义,武器和设备违反了韩国与他的协议。我认为朝鲜能理解韩国与美国的军事演习是常规演习,他只是不希望看到能给他自己带来威胁的事件。〞
〝 The exercises that they were talking about at that time were the annual military drills that the U.S. and South Korea conduct together, usually in March, but this year they were pushed back to April. And then, the two Koreas, the leaders of the two Koreas met on April 27th, and they made this new declaration in which both Koreas pledged to not to take -- undertake military activities that could be perceived as hostile to the other. But it was a very vague statement, not well defined. And I think the North Koreans are just trying to see what they can get and indicate that they see the nature and equipment used in this particular exercise as violating the spirit of that agreement. And so I think that it is still the case that North Korea recognizes that the U.S. and South Korea have a legitimate reason to conduct exercises, but they don't want to see elements that they consider to be hostile or offensive.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝另一件事,在金正恩取消与南韩的高级会谈之前一个星期,他与习近平进行了同一个月里的第二次会晤。您是否认为金正恩的举动是出于习的授意?〞
〝 Another thing is, a week before Kim Jong-un’s cancellation announcement, he went to China to meet with Xi Jinping for the second time in a month. Do you think that meeting has anything to do with this?〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝我个人认为金正恩如此反应,更多是因为文在寅即将来华盛顿见川普。对比金正恩去大连见习近平,的确,朝鲜和中国对美国在朝鲜半岛的作用上有一致的看法。但我不认为习近平会那么直接的影响到金正恩对此次联合军演的反应。那样的话,动作就太明显了。中共处事的方法有时出手很重,但多数的时候他们采用比较隐蔽的做法。所以他不太可能直接告诉朝鲜去反对美韩的军事演习,更可能的解释是朝鲜帮助习近平针对韩国访美做出的反应。〞
〝 I personally think that the greater influence might be the fact that Moon is about to travel to Washington to meet Trump rather than the fact that Kim Jong-un went to Dalian to meet Xi Jinping. It is true that North Korea and China have similar perspectives with regards to the role of the United States on the Korean Peninsula. But I just don't quite think that Xi Jinping has been so specific as to suggest to Kim Jong-un that he should object to this military exercise. I think that's not a very subtle approach. I think that the Chinese modus operandi, it may be heavy-handed at times, but it often is relatively subtle and that particular approach of putting Kim Jong-un up to trying to push back against the U.S. are okay exercises. I think it was more likely that the North Koreans came up with that idea than that they're doing it at the behest of Xi Jinping.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您如何看待川普总统提出的关于利比亚模式不适用于朝鲜的评论,还说如果弃核,北韩会由穷变富,金正恩也会继续执政,如果北韩愿意弃核的话?〞
〝What do you make of President Trump’s comment that the U.S. will not apply the Libya model to North Korea and that North Korea will get really rich and Kim Jong-un can stay in power if he gave up nuclear weapons? 〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝川普总统在朝鲜问题上很为难。朝鲜的反应意味着他们不接受利比亚模式。同时也意味着他们不会接受美国提供的经济援助,如果他们弃核的话。朝鲜想要的是通过外交手段分阶段弃核,同时实现关系正常化和获得安全保障。当然,如果美国提供经济援助,他们也想要。我想从朝鲜角度来看,他们很希望能得到平等对待。他们把美国对他们的承认看作是最大的安全保障。〞
〝 Well, President Trump's statement contains complexity. I think for the North Koreans because the North Korean statement of objected to the Libyan model, but it also objected to the idea that the United States was going to offer a lot of economic incentives to North Korea in order to achieve denuclearization. What the North Koreans really want is diplomatic normalization and security guarantees. And then of course, they will also take any economic assistance that the United States provides. But I think from the North Korean perspective, it's very important to be seen as on an equal footing. And really they're looking for acceptance by the United States as a kind of a hedge that would remove one of the largest challenges that North Korea perceives to its security.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):说到利比亚模式,请听我与中国大陆问题资深评论员-文昭先生的讨论。
As to the Libya model, let’s also hear my discussion with Chinese senior political commentator Wen Zhao.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普说,美国没有想让朝鲜仿造利比亚模式,还说美国没有给卡扎菲保护。他说金正恩如果配合,他将让朝鲜变得富有,金正恩也能一直执政。您认为,他心目中的协议到底是什么样的?金正恩,他更愿意抱美国的粗腿还是抱中共的粗腿?〞
〝 To quote Trump, the U.S. doesn’t make North Korea follow the Libya model; it didn’t protect Gadhafi. He promised if Kim would coordinate, he would make North Korea rich, and Kim would stay in power. What’s Trump’s deal like? Whose arms would Kim prefer, the U.S. or Communist China?〞

文昭(资深评论员):〝其实我认为对川普这个话普遍有误读。他说没有想把利比亚模式应用于朝鲜身上,更有可能他的意思简单地就是:金正恩不用担心,卡扎菲放弃核项目之后,在内战中被西方打击的情况不会在朝鲜身上发生。美国不会趁朝鲜无核以后攻打朝鲜,他的安全是有保障的。而不是说美国放弃了利亚那种先弃核、再补偿的模式;也不是说美国准备接受朝鲜的分阶段、同步去核的方案了。川普不是职业外交官,他头脑中很多概念是混淆的,他的表达也是不准确的。利比亚无核化过程经历了哪些细节我甚至怀疑川普是否都清楚。所以他的话主要是想缓解金正恩的安全焦虑。朝鲜所谓的“分阶段、同步实施”的去核方案是要求的一个比伊核协议更宽大的待遇,如果川普接受了这个方案,那他退出伊朗核协议就成了一个笑话。永久地、可核查的和不可逆的三项标准就是川普最终想要的去核的目标。在美、中、朝这三者的关系中,朝鲜最终要导向谁?因为中共对朝鲜的袒护程度,也要看在与美国的贸易谈判中朝鲜的利用价值,两家关系缺少牢固的基础,我认为这也让金正恩难以建立对北京牢固的信任。〞
〝 Honestly, Trump’s remarks are widely mistaken. When he said he didn’t want to apply the Libya model to North Korea, he was simply telling -- very probably -- that Kim doesn’t have to worry: the fate of Gadhafi -- abandoning nuclear programs and being hit in the civil war by the West -- won’t happen to North Korea. The U.S. won’t attack North Korea after it gives up nuclear weapons -- Kim’s safety is guaranteed. He wasn’t saying the U.S. gave up the model of denuclearization coming before compensation for Libya. Nor was he saying that he’s prepared to accept North Korea’s phased, synchronous denuclearization program. Trump is no professional diplomat. So many confused concepts in his mind. I even suspect if he’s clear about details of the denuclearization process in Libya. Those of his words were mainly to ease Kim’s security anxiety. North Korea’s so-called “phased, synchronous implementation” denuclearization program is even looser than the Iran nuclear agreement. If Trump accepts, his withdrawal from the Iranian agreement will be a joke. A “permanently, verifiably, and irreversibly” denuclearized deal is Trump’s goal. For the U.S., China and North Korea, the extent of the Chinese regime protecting North Korea depends on the value of North Korea in trade talks. There’s no solid foundation for Sino-Korean ties. That, I judge, also makes it hard for Kim to anchor his trust in Beijing.〞

接下来:请文昭揭示金家突然翻脸背后的中共因素。
Coming up, Wen Zhao explains China’s role in Kim’s sudden change of attitude.

金正恩单方面取消与韩国的高层会谈后,中国外交部长王毅敦促美国保持冷静。第二天,川普总统表示,中国国家主席习近平〝可能正在影响〞金正恩。
After Kim Jong-un unilaterally canceled the high level talks with South Korea, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the U.S. to remain calm. The next day, President Trump indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping could be influencing Kim Jong-un.

川普(美国总统):〝他们在中国见面之后,事情就有些改变了。你知道,金正恩第二次去中国见习近平,这个会面是有些出人意料的。中国国家主席习近平可能影响了金正恩。但是,我们再看看。如果还你记得,几周前,金正恩毫无预兆的又跑到中国大陆向习主席问好。我认为他们在庆贺航母完工,花的都是从美国赚到的钱。〞
〝I think things changed a little bit when they met with China. They met a second time, as you know, Kim Jong-un had a second meeting with China, which was a little bit of a surprise meeting. The president of China, President Xi, could be influencing Kim Jong-un, but we'll see,That's just look . if you remember, a few weeks ago, all of a sudden out of nowhere, Kim Jong-un went to China to say hello again a second time to President Xi. I think they were dedicating an aircraft carrier, paid for largely by the United States. 〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao): 川普总统的看法是否有道理?让我们来听听中国大陆问题资深评论员文昭先生的意见。

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普也感觉习近平可能在金正恩突然取消朝韩会谈这件事上起了作用。你觉得川普这么想有道理吗?〞
〝Trump feels that Xi could play a role in Kim’s sudden cancellation of the North-South talks. Is Trump right in thinking so?〞

文昭(资深评论员):〝我认为中共在这个过程中发挥了作用。除了5月7-8日金正恩去大连之外,在5月14日朝鲜还有一个代表团去北京,而第二天就是中国副总理刘鹤带团访美的日子,而再过了一天金正恩就威胁取消美朝峰会,这些事情在时间上如此地接近,以常理来推断它们之间不会没有联系。以中共当前的处境有明显的动机与金正恩协调行动的步骤,金正恩5月16日发出威胁,17日中美第二轮贸易谈判就开始,中方可以说他有影响力让金正恩安静地留在谈判桌上,相应美国应在贸易上做出让步。美韩军演并不是个意外的事,朝韩互访、彭佩奥去朝鲜的那两次都会向金正恩很清晰地传达,金正恩一直没有提反对意见。博尔顿关于“利比亚模式”的讲话发生在4月底,金正恩在长达2个多星期的时间内也没有做任何反应,在5月9日还释放了三名美国人质,他的突然变脸应该是和近几天来自于北京的影响有关。〞
〝 I believe Beijing played a role in it. Besides Kim’s trip to Dalian on May 7-8, another North Korea delegation visited Beijing on May 14. The next day Chinese Vice Premier Liu flew to the U.S. Just one day later Kim threatened to cancel the scheduled U.S.-North Korea summit. These events were so close in time that it’s hard to deny the connection among them. By its current situation Beijing has clear motives to match up North Korea. Kim gave his threat on May 16, and round 2 of Sino-US trade talks staged on May 17. China can say that it has influence to keep Kim quiet at the negotiation table, and the U.S. should compromise in return. The U.S.-South Korea military exercise is not a surprise. It was made clear during the North-South Korea visits and Pompeo’s two trips to North Korea. And Kim raised no objection. Bolton’s remarks on the “Libya model” occurred at the end of April. And Kim kept silent for a lengthy period of more than two weeks. He even released three American hostages on May 9. So his sudden change of stance might be due to the recent influence from Beijing.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝那么,金正恩现在这样做,想达到什么目标?习近平又想达到什么目的呢?〞
〝 Then, why does Kim do so, and what’s his goals? And what’s Xi Jinping’s goals?〞

文昭(资深评论员):〝习近平和金正恩在这个时候共同行动,是彼此借力向川普施压。如果川普向中朝提出的分阶段、同步实施的无核化原则靠拢,金正恩当然赢得了时间,最终有可能保留部分核武器,也缓解了经济制裁;而在这个过程中中共也可以持续在半岛发挥影响力。如果按照利比亚的去核模式,整个过程由美国强势主导,北京会被边缘化。而在朝鲜被边缘化,在中美贸易纠纷中中共也失去了一张牌。金正恩配合中美贸易谈判的时机发脾气,对他自己也有一定的风险,按照中朝一贯的交道模式,我想他从习近平那里收获了某些利益。同时突然变脸也有刺激韩国的作用:板门店会晤让韩国政府对未来抱有希望,期待达成南北和平协议、甚至启动民族统一,因为害怕金正恩撤出谈判,文在寅有可能做出更多让步,并且有可能说服美国对金正恩妥协。〞
〝Both Xi and Kim chose to act together, and use each other to put pressure on Trump. If Trump closes up to the phased, synchronous denuclearization, proposed by China and North Korea, Kim will certainly win the time; in the end, he might even retain part of his nuclear weapons, and economic sanctions will be eased. Over the process, the Chinese regime will maintain its influence in the peninsula. If the Libya model is taken, the U.S. will dominate the entire process. Beijing will be marginalized. So will North Korea. Then China will lose a card over Sino-U.S. trade disputes. It is risky for Kim to lose his temper at the right time of Sino-U.S. trade talks. As in usual Sino-Korea practices, I believe, Kim has gained certain benefits from Xi. Also, a sudden change may upset South Korea: the Panmunjom meeting gave the South Korean government hope for a North-South peace agreement and even future national unity. For fear of Kim withdrawing from the talks, Moon Jae-in may make more concessions and persuade the U.S. into compromising.〞

Coming Up: Kim Jong-un repeats history, but will President Trump?
接下来:金正恩重施故计,是否对川普有效?

尽管此举令人惊讶,但金正恩并不是金氏家族中退出重要协议的第一人。此前金氏家族不止一次这样反悔。
Despite the surprise, Kim Jong-un is not the first one in the Kim family who withdraws from important agreements. The Kim family has done this more than once.

1994年,美国克林顿政府和朝鲜签署了一项框架协议。美国同意向朝鲜提供两个轻水反应堆,以换取朝鲜裁军。然而,美国怀疑朝鲜并没有停止其核项目。1998年,美国要求察看宁边的地下核设施。金正日表示同意,但要求追加3亿美元作为补偿,遭到美国拒绝。于是第一次协议以失败告终。在布什政府期间,美国获得的证据表明,朝鲜仍在秘密研制核武器。于是,美国要求将核查人员重新派往朝鲜。但遭朝鲜拒绝,朝鲜以发展核电为由,重新正式开启其核项目计划。
In 1994, the Clinton Administration and North Korea signed an Agreed Framework. The U.S. agreed to facilitate the supply of two light-water reactors to North Korea in exchange for North Korea’s disarmament. However, the U.S. suspected that North Korea did not stop its nuclear program. In 1998, the U.S. requested to inspect its Yongbyon underground nuclear facilities. Kim Jong-il agreed but asked for $300,000,000 in compensation. The U.S. refused and that led to the first collapse of the agreement. During the Bush administration, the U.S. obtained evidence that North Korea was still secretly developing nuclear weapons and requested to send inspectors to North Korea again. North Korea rejected it and officially reopened its nuclear program under the excuse of developing nuclear power.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):克林顿,小布什,和奥巴马政府都没能制止北韩的核武计划。唐纳德・川普改变了策略。他会成功吗?让我们听听文昭和斯科特・施奈德的意见。
The Clinton, Bush and Obama administration had not been successful in terminating North Korea’s nuclear program. Donald Trump used a different strategy. Is it better? Let’s hear what Wen Zhao and Scott Snyder have to say.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普的最大压力原则有评论说是借鉴里根对付苏联的思路,您认为这是个好的策略吗?适用于金正恩吗?〞
〝 Some say Trump’s max pressure strategy comes from Reagan’s thinking to deal with the Soviet Union. Is it a desirable solution? Does it work for Kim?〞

文昭(资深评论员):〝我认为这对美国而言是个正确的策略。理由很简单,不管是在朝核问题上,还是在对美中贸易上,迄今一切有利于美国的变化都是增加压力的结果。对共产党政权而言他们只看重两个东西:第一是你的实力;第二如果你的实力占优势,就是你运用这个力量的决心。西方国家从来不缺物质上的优势、而是欠缺的使用优势的决心。当你掌握着优势而不想运用的时候,就和你没有优势是一样的。在朝鲜问题上压力政策要奏效不仅在于要贯彻于金正恩身上,还要施加于中共身上,甚至还要应用在韩国身上。但这是三种不同的压力,对金正恩而言是经济制裁外加军事压力;对中共而言是贸易制裁;对韩国而言,则是要督促文在寅坚守不妥协的立场。在伊朗核协议的问题上,川普表现出必要时可以脱离盟国单独行动,对韩国也应当传递同样的压力。〞
〝 I think it is a correct option for the United States. The reason is simple. Any change made in favor of the U.S. results from added pressure, either in the North Korean nuclear issue or in Sino-U.S. trade disputes. For any communist regime, they are afraid of nothing but two things: first, your national power; second, your determination to use your national power. Western nations never lack advantages of resources, but lacked the determination to use them. If you have advantages in your hands but never think of using them, it’s just like you’ve never had them at all. In the issue of North Korea, if the pressure policy is to work, it should be applied not only to North Korea, but also to China and South Korea. Of course it should vary with each of them. For Kim, it is economic sanctions plus military pressure; for the Chinese regime, it is trade sanctions; for South Korea, it is urging Moon Jae-in not to compromise. On Iran’s nuclear agreement, Trump demonstrated that he can, if necessary, act alone without its allies. He should also pass the same pressure on to South Korea.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):斯科特 施奈德发表了他的看法。
This is what Scott Snyder has to say about this topic.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普在处理金正恩这个问题上,与他的前任不同。有人说他的‘最大限度施压’策略源于里根。里根当年的理论基础是什么?这一策略因何而成功?〞
〝 Trump is different from previous presidents in his dealing with the Kim regime. Some say his maximum pressure tactic is from Ronald Reagan. What is the philosophy behind Ronald Reagan’s strategy back then? And why did it work?〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝里根总统的哲学是以实力求和平。我认为川普的这种给朝鲜施加最大压力的方案包含了里根的思想。与川普总统对比来看,让我想起来了雷克雅未克的首脑会议。里根和戈尔巴乔夫就全球武器控制问题坦诚的交换了他们自己的想法,而不是官僚主导的内容,我想可能川普总统对金正恩也是这样做的,除了雷克雅未克首脑会议,我想不出历史上还有哪个先例可以帮助我们看清川普会以怎样的策略对待金正恩。〞
〝 Well, President Reagan's dictum I think was peace through strength. And so I do think that the maximum pressure campaign contains elements that could be derived from that philosophy. But when I think of Ronald Reagan, and relevance to President Trump's current approach, what I think about is the Reykjavík Summit where Reagan and Gorbachev talked with each other about global arms control in an open and unscripted fashion based on their own ideas and not based on some kind of understanding crafted by the bureaucrats. And I think that is what president Trump may be doing with Kim Jong-un, and it's very rare, in fact. I don't think that we can identify a prior precedent, other than the Reagan Gorbachev meeting, that can help us to understand the way that President Trump is approaching his meeting with Kim Jong-un.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您认为川、金会能达成协议吗?如果能,那么中共将面临怎样的情势?〞
〝Do you think Trump and Kim can actually strike a deal? If so, where would China be in the new dynamic after such an agreement?〞

Scott Snyder(外交委员会对朝政策研究室主任):〝如果我们预测一下金川会将发生什么,我认为有三种可能:好的协议、坏的协议、和达不成协议。从中共的角度来看,美国和北韩之间达成好的协议可能会改变朝鲜的战略,这大概是中共所不希望看到的。从中共角度来看,达成一个坏的协议反而是好事,那意味着要维持现状, 即便不会实现朝鲜无核化。从中共角度来看,达不成协议对中国来说也很糟糕,因为那意味着武力解决问题的可能性增加了。〞
〝So if we look at what might happen in a Trump-Kim summit, there are really three, I think, distinct possibilities: one would be a good deal, the second would be a bad deal, and the third would be no deal. From the perspective of China, a good deal, a U.S.-DPRK good deal, might also involve a change in North Korea strategic orientation. And I think China would see that as bad. A bad deal from China's perspective would probably be seen as good because it would perpetuate the status quo even if it might not result in complete North Korean denuclearization. And no deal from China's perspective would also be bad because it would raise the likelihood of return to military confrontation between the United States and North Korea.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):根据最新消息,金正恩在取消了和韩国的会谈之后,他现在要韩国交回早先叛逃的12名北韩服务员,但这一要求被南韩拒绝。与此同时,美中双方宣布,为改善贸易不平衡现象,中国大陆同意大幅增加从美国的进口。 看来美方初战告捷,我们还要关注后续发展。我们这期节目就到此为止。感谢收看《世事关心》。我是萧茗,我们下周再会。
The latest news is that after Kim Jong-un cancelled the meeting with the South, he demanded that Seoul return 12 North Korean defectors. But Seoul said those people want to stay in the South. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China both announced China has agreed to significantly increase purchases of U.S. goods and services in order to reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries. Not a bad start for America. Let’s see what happens next. This concludes today’s program. Thanks for watching《 Zooming In》, I am Simone Gao, and see you next week.



==============================================

Producer: Simone Gao
Writer : Simone Gao Jess Beatty
Editors: Julian Kuo Melodie Von Frank Lin
广告
我来说两句
您的评论已提交,谢谢!
请输入您的评论后再提交!
網友 2018-05-26
这位美国朋友把中共和金正恩想的太好了!要知道中共邪灵是个魔鬼,而信仰共产主义的共产邪灵的信徒们,都曾向这个魔鬼发下过毒誓,因此这些邪灵的信徒是可以随时被中共邪魔操控的!<br>大家看到中共官员和金正恩的那些令正常人难以理解的行为,其实都是邪灵魔鬼的操控下而作出的。<br>邪灵的信徒们只不过就是前台的木偶,而这些信徒的灵魂是被中共邪灵绑架、囚禁起来了!
網友 2018-05-26
美国把中共与金正恩这样的流氓还是想的太好了!其实它们是人类根本无法想象的毫无底线的邪恶无赖!
網友 2018-05-26
文昭先生的分析很有道理!
广告
广告

订阅电子报

为保护您的隐私,我们绝对不会将您的电子邮箱透漏给任何人。

友好连接: 神韵艺术团 | 新唐人全球系列大赛 | 大纪元时报 | 希望之声 | 全球退党服务中心 | 明慧网 | 动态网 | 无界网 | 加拿大真相片摄制组 | 更多

Copyright © 2002-2018 NTDTV. All Rights Reserved.