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【世事关心】一带一路重塑世界格局?

纽约时间: 2018-04-24 01:21 AM 
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【新唐人北京时间2018年04月24日讯】【世事关心】(466)一带一路重塑世界格局
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中国的一带一路计划获得关注,习近平的真实目的是什么?习近平虽然雄心勃勃,但一带一路计划却遭遇了诸多挑战,最重要的实施一带一路会把权力中心从美国转移到中国吗?

中国的〝一带一路〞计划获得关注。习近平的真实目标是什么?
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is gaining attention.What are Xi Jinping’s true objectives?

章家敦(《每日野兽》专栏作家):〝我看习近平想建立中国与世界的联系。〞
〝I think that Xi Jinping wants to tie the world to China.〞

习近平虽然野心勃勃,但〝一带一路〞计划却遭遇了诸多挑战。
Despite Xi’s ambition,the BRI is meeting challenges.

陈破空先生(资深时政评论家):〝原因是中共政府过于贪婪,有时他们要拿走九成的利润。〞
〝The reason is because Chinese government is asking price too high–sometimes they are demanding 90%of the profit。〞

最重要的,实施〝一带一路〞计划会把权力中心从美国转移到中国吗?
Most important of all,will it shift the power center from the US to China?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):欢迎大家收看《世事关心》节目。我是主持人萧茗。去年在日本举行的CPAC会议上,史蒂夫.班农说过:〝种种迹象清楚的表明,中共正计划以威权主义的方式接管全球经济。对此,美国媒体和整个西方却视而不见。〞他表示:这种现象〝对西方而言不仅仅是一个警告〞。他当时谈到的就是中共的〝一带一路计划〞。虽然习近平颇有野心,但如此大动干戈,究竟所为何事呢?在近代历史上,没有哪一个国家能够同时称雄陆地和海洋。难道中共就能例外吗?难道中共真的能将世界权力的中心从美国移到中国吗?在本期《世事关心》节目中,我们将探讨这些问题。
Welcome to《Zooming In》.I am Simone Gao.At the Japanese CPAC meeting last year,Steve Bannon said,〝The U.S.media and the West in general have willfully ignored clear signs China plans to take over the global economy on authoritarian terms,〞and he said it’s〝more than awarning to the West.〞He was talking about China’s Belt and Road Initiative.Despite Xi Jinping’s ambition,what is really going on with this project?No nation in recent history has ever been successful in dominating both land and sea at the same time.Can China do it?And will it be able to shift the world power center from the US to China?In this episode of《Zooming In》,we will explore these questions and more.

2013年底,习近平宣布了〝一带一路〞计划。中共宣称他们正在建设现代版丝绸之路。它就好像汉唐时期沟通中外交流的丝绸之路。〝一带一路〞计划目标是建立一条横跨中国、中亚、东欧、和非洲的经济带,覆盖64个国家。中共宣称〝一带一路〞并不是为了解决中国的产能过剩问题,而是通过建设基础设施,来提振沿线欠发达国家经济和投资的增长。
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in late 2013.China claims they’re establishing amodern day Silk Road.It is reminiscent of the historical Silk Road that brought tremendous economic success to the Han and Tang dynasties.The initiative aims to cover apath that stretches across China,Central and Eastern Europe,and Africa,targeting over 64 countries.China claims that BRI does not have an agenda to fix China’s own industry overcapacity issues,but rather to boost the economic and investment growth through building infrastructure projects in some of the less developed nations.

但是总部位于华盛顿的高级防务研究中心(C4ADS),在2018年4月18日的报告里却表达了不同的看法。报告称中共正在〝一带一路〞沿线地区大规模部署军力,〝似乎是要取得政治影响力,暗中扩展中共的军事存在,和创造一个有利的战略环境〞。
But an April 18,2018,Washington-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies(C4ADS)report suggested something different.It claimed that the vast buildup of military forces in project locations〝appear to generate political influence,stealthily expand China’s military presence,and create an advantageous strategic environment.〞

2018年4月17日,德国媒体《Handelsblatt Global》报导说:〝28个欧盟成员国驻京大使中的27位合写了一份报告,尖锐批评中共的‘一带一路’计划,谴责这个计划旨在阻碍自由贸易,为中共公司谋求商业上的优势。〞
On April 17,2018,German press Handelsblatt Global reported that〝Twenty-seven of the 28 national EU ambassadors to Beijing have compiled areport that sharply criticizes China’s〝Silk Road〞project,denouncing it as designed to hamper free trade and put Chinese companies at an advantage.〞

尽管中共野心勃勃,〝一带一路〞计划明显面临着困难。2018年4月15日,《南华早报》报导说该计划在非洲已经面临财务问题。中国进出口银行前行长李若谷说,参与的国家无力偿还工程贷款,很多国家已经债务缠身。CNBC报导称,中共国务院发展研究中心副主任王一鸣说,尽管很多项目是由大型金融机构出资,每年仍然有高达5000亿美元的巨大资金缺口。
Despite China’s grand ambition,BRI is clearly facing difficulties.On April 15,2018,the South China Morning Post reported that the ambitious Chinese Belt and Road project is already running into financial trouble in Africa.Li Ruogu,the former president of Export-Import Bank of China,recently said that the countries involved simply don’t have the money to pay for it.Many countries already are deep in debt.CNBC reported that Wang Yiming,deputy head of the Development Research Centre of China's State Council,said that although many projects were funded by major financial institutions,there was still ahuge funding gap of up to US$500 billion ayear.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):尽管存在着金融风险,中国还是在大力推进此事。除经济扩张外,难道它还想实现其它目标吗?让我们来听听《野兽日报》专栏作家章家敦先生、资深政论家陈破空先生的见解。
In spite of the financial risks,China pushes forward.Does it want to achieve goals besides economic expansion?Let’s hear my discussion with Daily Beast columnist Gordon Chang and Senior political commentator Chen Pokong.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):您认为习近平推行〝一带一路〞计划的目的是什么?
〝What do you think Xi Jinping really wants to achieve with the Belt and Road Initiative?〞

章家敦(《野兽日报》专栏作家):〝我认为习近平是想把世界与中共捆绑在一起。‘一带一路’计划最初意在联系中国东海岸与欧洲市场。但这个概念后来扩展到包含‘冰上丝绸之路’、‘拉美丝绸之路’。所以,这个‘一带一路’的想法已经扩展成了全球性的战略。〞
GORDON CHANG:I think that Xi Jinping wants to tie the world to China.The Belt and Road Initiatives were essentially intended to connect the great cities of China’s east coast to the European markets.But the concept has really expanded,because now they talk about apolar silk road,a Latin America silk road.So,essentially,this whole idea of Belt and Road has gone global.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):如果这确实体现了习近平称霸全球的野心的话,从战略角度倒是可以理解的。因为从西太平洋到东欧这一带,是中共可能扩张势力范围的地区。为什么这么讲?因为整个环太平洋地区已经由美国主导了,再加上加拿大、日本和澳大利亚。对中国来说,要与这些国家硬碰硬的竞争,难度非常大。然而,从中亚延伸到东欧这一带沿线情况就不同了。从海路上来讲,从南太平洋到印度洋、再到红海、再到地中海这一线,美国的影响力比较弱。但正如我刚才讲的那样,近代史上从来没有哪一个国家能够同时称霸陆上和海上,更不用说此项目给中国带来的经济风险了。因此,即使实施〝一带一路〞计划从战略的角度上可以理解,但是它是否行得通呢?如果中国尚未具备相关条件,又为何如此急不可耐呢?让我们来听听陈破空先生的见解。
If this is really amanifestation of Xi Jinping’s global ambition,it makes strategic sense.China can most easily expand its sphere of influence from the western Pacific Ocean to Eastern Europe.Why?Because the whole Pacific rim is dominated by America,together with Canada,Japan and Australia.It will be very hard for China to compete with them head to head.However,it’s adifferent situation if this route extends from central Asia to eastern Europe.By sea,it’s from the south Pacific Ocean to the Indian ocean,and then from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.American influence is relatively weak in this region.But as Isaid before,there has never been anation in recent history that could dominate both land and sea simultaneously.Let alone the financial risks this project poses to China.So,even if the Belt and Road Initiative makes strategic sense,is it viable?If China is not quite ready for it,why the rush?Let’s hear from Chen Pokong.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝为何中国如此急切的推进一项金融风险巨大的计划呢?〞
〝Why is China in such arush to push forward an effort that has so many financial risks?〞

陈破空先生(资深时政评论家):〝习近平与中国政府确实认为,他们在经济上具有推进‘一带一路’的紧迫性。因为他们急于为国内多余的产能找出路,来避免一场由经济衰退导致的全面危机。作为世界上头号出口大国,中国现在面临着国内经济发展失衡与工业产能过剩,尤其是国内增长放缓与人口红利消失。习近平与中国政府同时认为,‘一带一路’计划可以帮助他们促进GDP的增长。他们认为这是维护中共统治的关键。我讲过,中国政府一直把政权的安危放在第一位。〞
〝Xi Jinping and Chinese government do believe they have an economic urgency to rush to push forward the Belt and Road plan,because they are eager to
to shift China’s surplus production outward in order to transfer the burden of crisis and risk in China’s economic recession.As the world’s largest exporter,China now is facing domestic economic imbalances and industrial over-capacity,especially China’s domestic growth slows and the demographic dividend is disappearing.Xi Jinping and Chinese government also believe that Belt and Road Initiative can help them to promote China’s GDP growth,which,they think,is essential to the security of the regime.As Isaid before,the Chinese government always put their regime’s safety as the top issue.

接下来,〝一带一路〞倡议到目前为止完成了什么,西方国家的回应又是什么?
Coming up,What has the Belt and Road Initiative accomplished so far,and what is the response from Western nations?

〝一带一路〞计划预计在21世纪中期完成。它现在还处于早期阶段。按照西方观点看,〝一带一路〞计划非常模糊。几乎查不到在过去5年里都建成了哪些项目。在去年的〝一带一路〞论坛上,中共列举了270个具体成果。这些成果几乎都是签订的纸面协议。
The Belt and Road Initiative is set to be completed in the mid-21st century.It’s still in its early phases.From aWestern perspective,BRI plans are extremely vague.Finding alist of projects that have been completed in the past 5years is difficult.During last year’s Belt and Road Forum,China listed 270〝concrete results.〞They were mostly signed documents.

另一个来自中共政府的消息来源说,大约50家国企投资或参与了多达1700个项目。
Another Chinese governmental source said about 50 state-owned enterprises have invested or participated in almost 1,700 projects.

2018年1月,国际金融论坛和媒体Central Banking合作,对25个国家和地区的中央银行进行了关于〝一带一路〞的调查。下面这些是他们的一些调查成果:
In January,2018,the International Finance Forum,in collaboration with Central Banking–conducted aBelt and Road Survey of central banks from more than 25 countries and regions.And this is some of the things they found.

克里斯托弗.杰弗瑞(中央银行出版物主编/Christopher Jeffery):〝近半数的中央银行视‘一带一路’计划为几十年一遇的机会。接近四分之三的受访者表示,‘一带一路’计划还未能增加来自中共的投资。但是就像我前面介绍的,有92%的受访者预计在未来五年里,‘一带一路’计划会刺激国内的经济发展。从地缘政治的角度来看,受‘一带一路’计划影响最大的是欧盟(42%)和美国(33%)。〞
〝Just under half of central banks described the BRI as a‘once-in-a-generation’initiative.Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed said the BRI has not yet resulted in greater investment from China than already expected.But as Isaid,92%of respondents expect the BRI to bolster domestic growth during the next five years.In terms of geopolitics,The BRI is expected to create the greatest friction with the EU(42%)and the US(33%).〞

尽管与欧盟、与美国的关系紧张,〝一带一路〞计划还是在全球提升了共产中国的形象。该计划在政治上、经济上、和工业上联系着中共与大半个世界。它增加了中共在世界关键地区的影响力。
Despite the tension with the EU and the US,The Belt and Road Project has enhanced China’s global image.It’s developing political,economic,and industrial ties with two-thirds of the globe.It’s increased Chinese influence in akey region of the world.

这让一些人担忧。
This makes some worry.

这些地缘政治的变化让四方安全对话复活。这个机制是在2007年由印度、日本、澳大利亚、和美国建立,以因应南海地区日益严重的中共威胁及其扩张性的海洋战略。这四个国家对中共的威胁有不同的看法,但是在一些关键问题上有共识:自由通航、海上安全、和对国家法的尊重。尤其是美国,在撤出泛太平洋合作组织,也就是TPP之后。
These geopolitical shifts have revitalized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.It was first established in 2007 between India,Japan,Australia,and the United States.China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and expanding maritime strategy spurred the realignment.The four countries have slightly different perceptions about China’s threat.But there are some key issues they all agree on:freedom of navigation,maritime security,and respect for international law.The United States,in particular,is trying to counteract Chinese influence since it withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP).

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):我们的嘉宾章家敦先生认为〝一带一路〞在经济上是不可行的。以下是我和章先生的讨论。
Our guest Gordon Chang does not believe the Belt and Road Initiative is economically viable.Here is my discussion with him.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您怎么看‘一带一路’计划五年来的进展?有哪些成绩?〞
〝What’s your comment on the first 5years of the Belt and Road Initiative?Has it been successful?〞

章家敦(《每日野兽》专栏作家):〝‘一带一路’计划到目前为止,成功的引发了全球的关注和期待,但实事求是的讲,它还没有落实。本月,中国进出口银行的前行长表示,许多中亚国家无法兑现承诺的资本投入。部分原因在于‘一带一路’计划在经济上不可行。80年代我在香港做律师,我的工作范围不包括金融和基础建设领域,但我所在的律师行有这样的业务。一切值得投资的项目都能得到市场融资,现在也是如此。但‘一带一路’是要筹款建设那些得不到市场融资的项目,就是说,中国是想让其它国家出钱完成他的外交目标。短期也许能行,但我觉得无法长久,现在人们虽然在憧憬未来,但如果仔细分析一下它面对的问题就会发现,这个计划在经济上无法盈利,在战略上或许对中国重要,但对其它国家不重要,所以‘一带一路’这个构想不是长久之计。〞
〝Belt and Road Initiatives have been successful in the sense of creating alot of hype,a lot of excitement.But when we start to look at the reality of it,they have not really fulfilled promise.You know,we had this month aformer head of the Chinese Export-Import Bank say that alot of the Central Asian countries along the Belt and Road are not able to meet their financial commitments.And part of this is the Belt and Road is just not economically viable.When Iwas practicing law in Hong Kong in the 1980s,I didn’t do finance work or infrastructure work,but Iknow that my firm did.And everything that could be financed was financed by the market.And that’s continued to be true.What the Belt and Road attempts to do is to finance stuff that the market wouldn’t touch,which means that,essentially,China wants countries to pay to accomplish Chinese foreign policy goals.This might work in the short term,but Idon’t think it’s going to work long term.So what we have right now is alot of excitement,but really when you look at the problems facing Belt and Road,something which is not economically viable,which is maybe strategically important for China,but not important for other countries,I don’t think it’s going to work out in the long term.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝您觉得‘一带一路’计划会不会对西方国家产生负面影响?〞
〝Do you think the West should worry about the Belt and Road Initiative?〞

章家敦(《野兽日报》专栏作家):〝中共有很多让我们担忧之处。‘一带一路’应该不是最紧要的。如果中共真要在中亚投资修铁路也行,因为这会减少在军队建设方面的支出,比如造潜艇和护卫舰。所以,虽然我们应该关注‘一带一路’,但是中共做的很多别的事情更令我们担心。〞
〝There are alot of things to worry about in China.Belt and Road is pretty low on the list of things we’ve got to be concerned about.If the Chinese want to spend money on arailroad in Central Asia,that’s fine,in asense,because every dollar they put there is one fewer dollar that they’re going to put into building asubmarine or frigate or supporting their military in some way.So,yes,we should be concerned,but nonetheless,there’s alot of other things China’s doing much more worrying.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):对于类似问题,我们还是来听听陈破空先生的意见。
Let’s hear what Chen Pokong has to say.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝对中国而言,‘一带一路’计划的最大问题是什么?〞
〝What is the biggest problem the BRI poses for China?〞

陈破空先生(资深时政评论家):〝中共面临着巨大的投资风险。根据‘一带一路’计划,中共现在大量投资的地区或国家,都是政治不稳定、安全得不到保障的国家。一旦发生冲突、社会动荡及突然发生变故,中共的投资将损失惨重。而这些损失都将成为中国人民的损失,但中国人民却无权阻止中共拿人民的钱冒险。这对中国人民来说绝对是不公平的。事实上,‘一带一路’计划现在正面临着一系列的困难与失败。不仅西方国家反应冷淡,即使一些与中共关系比较近的或友好的国家,也产生了越来越多的怀疑,对这一计划表示拒绝。例如,巴基斯坦、尼泊尔与缅甸拒绝了由中国出资兴建的一些水电站项目或大坝项目。由于遭到当地民众的反对,原因是中国政府索价太高,有时竟要求获得90%的利润;有时贷款条件十分严格或苛刻;有时项目对环境有破坏作用。所以,这些项目遭到了这些国家的拒绝或取消。〞
〝There is abig risk for Chinese investment.According to the Belt and Road initiative,China is investing alot of money in the regions or countries where the politics is not stable and the security is weak.If conflicts,turmoils,and sudden changes occur,Chinese investment could turn into huge loss.And all the loss will be the Chinese people’s loss,but the Chinese people have no rights to prevent Chinese government from doing anything risky.This is absolutely unfair to the Chinese people.Actually,the Belt and Road plan is now facing anumber of obstacles and failures.Not only Western countries have cold-shoulder to this plan,but also the countries which are close to China or friendly to China also have more and more suspicion and rejection to this plan.For example,Pakistan,Nepal and Myanmar rejected some hydropower plants or dam projects funded by China because of local opposition.The reason is because Chinese government is asking price too high–sometimes they are demanding 90%of the profit,or because the Chinese loan has tough or strict condition,or because the projects can harm the environment.So these projects are rejected or canceled in these countries.〞

接下来,〝一带一路〞计划究竟是谁受益:参与国?大陆人民?还是少数权贵?
Coming up:How does the Belt and Road Initiative benefit the countries it’s in,and does it help regular Chinese citizens,or only the elites?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝一带一路〞计划对中国和相关国家存在经济风险,因为这些国家可能无法还贷。如果是这样,中共是否会得不偿失?可以拿什么做补偿?中共又能获得什么好处呢?对于普通中国百姓来说,又意味着什么?现在我们就来看一看。
The Belt and Road Initiative is financially risky for China and the countries involved--that is,if they can’t pay back the debt.What are the benefits that outweigh these risks?How does China benefit if the countries can’t pay back their debt?And what’s in it for the average Chinese citizen?Let’s take alook.

参与〝一带一路〞的国家能获得一些明显的好处。很多发展中国家没有改善基础设施所需的资金,中共的贷款能让他们快速建设基础设施。参与〝一带一路〞还能帮助这些国家对抗地区强权,比如南亚的印度、中亚的俄国。
The countries taking part in China’s Belt and Road Initiative have some obvious benefits.Many of the developing countries don’t have the money to improve their infrastructure.China’s loans allow them to build up infrastructure quickly.It could also give leverage against traditional regional powers,such as India in South Asia,and Russia in Central Asia.

但是也有很多隐藏的不利因素。这些贷款可能是债务陷阱,中共会藉机侵害借款国的主权。一个例子就是斯里兰卡的Hambantota港,斯里兰卡无力偿付欠中共的债务,于是它将这个港口出租给中共99年,还让中共控股。
But there are also many hidden disadvantages.These loans could be debt traps,opening countries up to more Chinese influence.One example of this is Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.The country couldn’t pay its debt back to China.Instead,it gave China a99-year lease on the port and acontrolling equity stake.

Jonathan Hillman是战略和国际研究中心的学者,也是该中心〝重回亚洲〞项目的主任。他在2018年1月25日的一个听证会上,解释了斯里兰卡的债务问题。
Jonathan Hillman is aFellow and Director of Reconnecting Asia Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.He explained Sri Lanka’s debt problem at ahearing on January 25,2018。

希尔曼先生(Jonathan Hillman):〝分析一下斯里兰卡参与’一带一路’计划的得失,能让我们深刻了解中共推行这一计划的真实目的。几个星期以前,我到过位于该国南部的Hambantota港,这个港口是中共出资并由中企建设,但后来斯里兰卡政府无力还贷,不得不出让产权。中共以99年长期租借的形式,事实上控制了这一极具战略意义的地区。Hambantota港距离国际海运主通道不过几十公里远,该港口目前处于近乎关闭状态。虽然中资企业已经接手经营,但并没有多少业务。与之截然相反的是,科伦坡港呈现一片繁荣的景象,大量货轮在那里进进出出。〞
〝So Sri Lanka was just mentioned,and Ithink it's afascinating case of both some
of the rewards for China even when things go wrong,and so,you know,in the southern part of Sri Lanka,which Ihad an opportunity to visit just afew weeks ago,there's aport at Hambantota that we're probably all familiar with that was built by Chinese contractors with Chinese financing,and then when the government couldn't pay back the loan,China took equity in the port.They now have a99-year lease,and this is in avery strategic area of the world that's,you know,miles from some of the busiest shipping lanes.And if you go there today,it's,you know,kind of on lockdown.It's been handed over to Chinese companies to run,but there's not alot of economic activity there,and it's adramatic contrast.It's like night and day between that port and the port in Colombo where there is lots of,you know,cargo vessels coming in and out.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):如何解决这些问题?让我们听听章家敦和陈破空先生的看法。
Just how will these problems work themselves out?Let’s hear my discussion with Gordon Chang and Chen Pokong again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝万一有的国家无力偿还贷款,中共会怎么做?〞
〝What happens if the countries can’t pay back Chinese loans?〞

章家敦(《野兽日报》专栏作家):〝我想会发生几件事。首先,中国会将一部分贷款转为股东股份。中国也要承受部分坏账损失。中国或许会用军队驻扎权作为交换坏账的条件。我们在斯里兰卡看到了这一点。总之,我们会看到中国会在债务方面承担风险,因为很多项目无法盈利。所以,后面会有妥协,中国也将要承担损失。〞
GORDON CHANG:I think that we’re going to see acouple things happen.First of all,China will have to convert some of that into equity.China will take some losses.China may get some military bases in places as sort of in payment for loans.We saw alittle bit of this in Sri Lanka,for instance.But what China is going to do is basically end up stretching its finances too thin,largely because these projects,for the most part,are not economically viable.So there’s going to be compromise,and China’s going to take alittle bit of ahit.Maybe abig hit on the places where Belt and Road has really fallen into hard times.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝一带一路〞计划最终是谁受益?我们来听听陈破空先生的看法。
Finally who does the Belt and Road Initiative benefit in the end?Here is what Chen Pokong has to say.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝‘一带一路’计划给中国普通的老百姓带来了什么好处呢?对中国来讲,它像一个经济提振计划呢,还是主要是中国的精英阶层获利?〞
〝What are the benefits of the BRI to average Chinese citizens?Is it like an economic stimulus package for China,or does it mostly benefit Chinese elites?〞

陈破空先生(资深时政评论家):〝众所周知,中国依然是一个发展失衡的国家,贫富差距巨大。中国政府应当做的事情,是把更多的钱用在自己的人民身上。例如,民众对医疗、教育、卫生、与养老福利方面的需求巨大,到目前为止,中国政府拨付的资金十分有限。而中国政府现在却在国外大把花钱,中国网民给中国政府起了绰号,叫‘大撒币’。至于‘一带一路’计划,如果它真是一个提振中国经济的一揽子方案的话,中国人民也不清楚它是怎么运作的。过去5年来,中国人民没有看到,也没有感受到它给中国究竟带来了哪些好处。其实呢,‘一带一路’计划对中共利益集团或红色权贵,还有另一层含义。这就是:中国的高层官员们与红色权贵们希望通过所谓的‘海外投资’,为自己大量的非法所得在国际社会上找到一个出口,在一定程度上,‘一带一路’计划可能是一个变相的洗钱计划。这是当今世界上最猖獗的、最诡秘的洗钱计划。最近发生的一个例子,就是前政治局委员、重庆市委书记孙政才,他被指控犯有贪污罪,其中一项罪名就是以‘一带一路’计划的名义,将政府资金提供自己的一名情妇,而这个情妇同时也是一名商人。〞
〝As we know China is still an imbalanced country with abig gap between the rich and the poor.What Chinese government should do is to invest more money on its own citizens.For example,there is ahuge need of health care,education,sanitation,and retirement benefits,which so far,have limited funding from Chinese government.What Chinese government is doing now is to invest alot of money abroad.〝Spilling money〞,Da Sa Bi,that is the nickname that Chinese netizens gave to the Chinese government.
Regarding the Belt and Road Initiative,if it is astimulus package for the Chinese economy,the Chinese people have no idea how it works.The Chinese people do not see or feel any advantages this plan has brought to China in the past five years.Actually,the Belt and Road plan may have imply another layer of intentions by the CCP syndicate or red elites.That is Senior Chinese officials and Red elites hope to find an outlet in the international community for their enormous ill-gotten gains through the so-called〝overseas investment〞.For at some extent,this Belt and Road plan may be adisguised money laundering plan.This may be the most brilliant and secretive money laundering scheme in the world today.One of the latest evidences is that Sun Zhengcai,a former Politburo member and Chongqing’s party chief,he was accused on charges of corruption.One of his accusations is using the name of the‘Belt and Road’plan to provide government funds for his mistress,who is also abusinesswoman.〞

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):中国大陆是世界第二大经济体。她的强大无可置疑。然而,一个经济强权无所顾忌的侵入别人的势力范围是否明智?欧盟,印度,甚至俄罗斯的反应已经明确回答了这个问题。一言以蔽之,从地缘政治的角度出发,‘一带一路’计划或许对中共有意义。但是中共目前还无力实施这样大规模的系统工程,更不要说许多国家质疑中共的真实动机。谢谢收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗,我们下周再会。
China is the 2nd largest economy in the world.No doubt,it is powerful.However,is it wise for it to show itself as asuperpower that could just break into other people’s backyard without any concerns?The European Union,India,even Russia’s reaction is aclear answer to that question.To sum up,the Belt and Road Initiative might make sense from ageopolitical point of view for China,but China is not quite ready for the scale and complexity of this effort,let alone the fact that the world does not trust China’s motivation.Thanks for watching《Zooming In》,I am Simone Gao,and see you next week.
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