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【世事关心】习近平 共产党和川普的三方博弈

纽约时间: 2018-03-27 09:34 PM 
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【新唐人北京时间2018年03月28日讯】【世事关心】(463)习近平 共产党川普的三方博弈:习近平以全票连任国家主席,王岐山也在同一天当选国家副主席,像美国总统川普一样,习近平也终于成立了他理想的执政团队,但这只是问题的一方面,从表面上看,大陆政界全力支持习近平的连任和修宪,然而在背后,恐惧,怨恨和怀疑依然存在,习近平和共产党之间会怎样互动,这种互动对大陆政局和中美关系会产生怎样的影响?这集我们一起来探讨。
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中国大陆迫不及待的修宪,来为习近平的终身掌权开道。他本可以按部就班的进行,是什么原因使他变得如此急切?
China hastily changed its constitution to pave the way for Xi Jinping to rule forever. He could have done this more politely, so why the rush?

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝那我想他可能是感受到一些现实的压力,也许他想让这个官僚体系感受到必须执行他的方案。而靠拖,拖延到他一个任期结束是没有指望的。〞
“In my opinion, he is under intangible pressure that makes him feel he must implement his plan within this CCP bureaucratic system. To delay this issue until the end of his tenure will not help him remain in power.”

共产党和习近平是真的强大吗?
Are Xi and the party as strong as they seem?

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝这次他全票获得通过,到并不意味这官僚阶层的绝对忠诚。只是意味着他的权势足够大。大到没有人敢表达反对。〞
“ Unanimous votes cannot be associated with absolute loyalty from the bureaucrats. It only means that Xi has sufficient power. His power is strong enough to ensure zero opposition.”

川普在最后一刻签署了台湾旅行法。他要向外界传递怎样的讯息?
Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act at the last minute. What signal is he sending?

Ethan Epstein(《标准周刊》副编辑):〝第一,他擅长营造戏剧性,所以往往故意等到最后一刻再公布决定。第二,是释放信号,显示美中关系进入了一个新阶段。〞
“He kind of has a flair for drama. So he likes to do a lot of things at the last minute. The second part of that is, I think, to signal this kind of new phase of our relations with China.”

在麦克.庞皮奥和王岐山主管中美关系的时代,一些热点问题,比如北韩核问题、南海争端、两岸关系和贸易纠纷会出现怎样的变化?
What will happen to North Korea, South China Sea, Taiwan and the Trade dispute under Mike Pompeo and his counterpart Wang Qishan, Xi Jinping’s closest ally?

Ethan Epstein(《标准周刊》副编辑):〝观察他们两人的工作和互动会很有意思。但可以肯定的是,这两强会在很多重要问题上交手。〞
“It’ll be interesting to see what the interpersonal dynamics are and how they work. But it’s certainly two assertive guys that are going to be having to deal with each other on a lot of important subjects.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):大家好,欢迎收看《世事关心》,我是萧茗。习近平以全票连任国家主席,王岐山也在同一天当选国家副主席。象美国总统川普一样,习近平终于组成了他理想的执政团队。但这只是问题的一个方面,从表面上看,大陆政界全力支持习近平的连任和修宪。然而,在铁幕背后,恐惧、怨恨和怀疑依然存在。习近平和共产党之间会怎样互动?这种互动对大陆政局和中美关系会产生怎样的影响?这集的《世事关心》,我们一起来探讨。
Welcome to Zooming In, I am Simone Gao. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s second term win was unanimous, and Xi’s closest ally, Wang Qishan, was elected vice president on the same day. It’s widely suspected that Wang Qishan lost his Politburo Standing Committee Member’s seat last October due to the alleged corruption exposed by billionaire Guo Wengui, the self-imposed exile in New York. Guo is complicated. Many suspect he’s an agent for Xi’s longtime rival Jiang Zemin. However, even if that were true, the relationship didn’t end on a high note as Guo had hoped for. Nevertheless, under pressure, Xi conceded by letting Wang go. Five months later, Wang made it back, indicating Xi has since consolidated his power and was able to reward Wang’s loyalty. As vice president, Wang will most likely be responsible for the U.S.-China relations. Xi finally gets to choose his dream cabinet, much like what President Trump is doing in the U.S. But this is only half the story. Behind the staunch loyalty display of the Chinese bureaucracy over Xi’s election and the constitutional amendments, fear, resentment and doubts linger. What is the true dynamic between Xi and the Party, and how will this impact Chinese politics and U.S.- China relations? Let’s explore these questions in this episode of Zooming In.

2018年3月11日,近3000名中国人大代表齐聚北京人民大会堂,就拟议中的中国宪法修正案表决。
On March 11, 2018, close to 3,000 Chinese Congressional representatives gathered in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to cast votes on the proposed Chinese constitutional amendments.

1982年版的中国宪法自1988年以来经历了四次修订,但这一次却不同,因为它废除了共产党的长期传统,即规定国家主席任期最多两次。这实际上把共产党送回到毛泽东时代。
This 1982 version of the Chinese Constitution has undergone four amendments since 1988. This time, however, is different, as it abolished a longstanding Party tradition to limit any President to a maximum of two terms. This literally sent the party back to the Mao era.

该修正案以2,958票赞同,2票反对和3票弃权轻松通过,超过以往四项修正案的得票率。同一周,人民代表大会全票选举习近平出任国家主席,他的亲密盟友王岐山出任副主席。
The amendments passed with flying colors, 2,958 approval, 2 against and 3 abstentions, the highest approval rating among all four previous amendments. In the same week, the people’s congress unanimously voted for Xi Jinping to be president of China, and his close ally Wang Qishan to be vice president.

几乎没有人感到惊讶,每个人都明白它意味者什么 …… 习近平将一直是中国的最高领导人,在未来相当、相当长的一段时间。其实也没什么,因为大多数人几年前就预见到会这样了。然而,仍有一个问题:为什么这么着急呢?
Nobody seemed to be surprised, and everyone understood its implication - China will likely see Xi Jinping as its supreme leader for a long, long, long time. That is fine since most of them have foreseen its coming in the past few years. However, one question remains: why the rush?

今年2月26日,中共中央召开三中全会 。令人奇怪的是,三中全会通常在秋天开,比3月份的人大会议晚大约六个月。今年,它被提前了半年。原因何在?
On February 26, the Communist Party’s Central Committee convened its third plenum session, on which amendments to the Chinese constitution were proposed. What’s odd about this is that usually the 3rd plenum session of the Central Committee convenes in the fall, about 6 months after the National Congress convenes. This year, it was moved up half a year. Why?

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):十九届三中全会提前了半年召开。这和习近平要取消任期限制有关吗?他的任期还有5年,他为什么这么着急今年就要取消任期限制?让我们听听新唐人电视台资深评论员文昭先生的看法。
The third plenum session was moved up 6 months, is this related to Xi’s intention to remove the term limits? He still has 5 years left, why did he have to do it this year? let’s hear from NTD TV senior strategist Wen Zhao.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝三中全会提前了半年召开。这是为什么?在您看来,习近平为什么这么着急取消任期限制?〞
“The third plenum session convened 6 months early, why? Why did Xi rush to get rid of the term limits?”

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝十九届三中全会提前召开,是因为二中全会没有完成它惯例上应该完成的任务。因为按照惯例,二中全会要提出所谓“党和国家领导人的建议名单”。但是今年这个二中全会只讨论了修宪的事情。那就势必得在两会召开之前再开一次中央全会,把这个任务给补上。同时习近平他还要提出党政机构改组的方案拿到两会上去通过。就是因为要完成的任务太多才造成今年的三中全会不得不提前召开。至于说习近平为什么要把取消主席任期限制这个事放在今年的修宪上来做呢?因为也没有规定说在他任期之内,两年三年之内不能再修宪。那我想他可能是感受到一些现实的压力,也许他想让这个官僚体系感受到必须执行他的方案。而靠拖,拖延到他一个任期结束是没有指望的。反正他会长期执政。也许习近平在接班人这个问题上受到了政治元老的压力。他通过取消任期制这种方式,让其他高层势力通过设立接班人这种方式约束他这种希望彻底破灭。〞
“The Third Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee was held early because during the Second Plenary Session, they had not yet completed their assigned tasks. What that means is, by convention, the Second Plenary Session will release the so-called "List of Party leader recommendations." However, this year's second plenary session only discussed the amendments of the constitution. So they must arrange another central plenary session before the Two Sessions meeting in order to complete this task. At the same time, Xi Jinping proposed and passed his plan for reforming the party and government organizations during the Two Sessions. Too many things are waiting to be completed, therefore, they must move the meeting forward in order to deal with these tasks first. But why was Xi Jinping so eager to cancel the presidential term limit and make these changes on this year's constitutional amendment? No one ever stipulates that the Constitution cannot be amended within two, three years of his term. In my opinion, he is under intangible pressure that makes him feel he must implement his plan within this CCP bureaucratic system. To delay this issue until the end of his tenure will not help him remain in power. Anyway, I think he will be in position for a long time. Perhaps the pressure that Xi faces comes from those political elders of the CCP. By cancelling the term limit, the hope of high-level forces restraining him with a successor completely collapses.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝习近平现在不设接班人意味着他永远不设接班人吗?如果这样中共最高领导人的权利将如何接替呢?〞
“ If Xi Jinping does not appoint a successor now, does that mean he will never appoint one? If so, how can the Chinese Communist Party get the next top leader?”

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〞目前习近平比较明确的意图呢就是说接班人这个问题他现在不想提。他主要是说他不想在他自己没有办法完全控制局面的情况下来谈接班人的问题。他就是不想再接班人的问题上受制于人。他不想在别人的压力下设接班人。他也不接受别的高层势力用接班人这个事情来分他的权。但不是说从长期的角度来看他就排斥,拒绝设立接班人。至于未来他怎么样挑选自己的接班人,搞个什么样的接班体制,这实际上跟他自己所处的地位是有关的。只要他的权利够稳固够强,他有无数的方案可以选择。比如五年之后,他可以考虑恢复党中央主席制度,他自己把党主席,中央军委主席和国家主席三个职位一肩挑。在党中央主席下他可以考虑设立一个副主席或是保留现在的总书记,让接班人来担任这个职务。然后用一到两个任期走完这个接班的过程。总之从长远来看呢,只要他权利够稳固,他可以有许多种灵活的方式来处理。目前呢他就是不想让接班人这个因素成为制约他的因素。〞
“ By far, Xi Jinping’s clear message is he does not want to talk about a successor now. He does not want to talk about his successor when he cannot have total control over the entire situation. He does not want to be slowed down by the problem of a successor. He does not want to appoint a successor under others’ pressure. He does not accept his power being diverted by other high-level leaders using the excuse of a successor. However, this does not mean from the long run he refuses to have a successor. In terms of how he chooses a successor, what kind of system he will create for the power succession, this is relevant to the position he actually holds. As long as his power is steady enough and strong enough, he has numerous ways to choose from. For example, in five years, he could think of resuming the chairmanship of the Communist Party. He takes the chairman position of the Communist Party, of the Central Military Committee, and the Chinese President. Under the Chairman of the Communist Party, he can appoint a vice chairman, or keep the current General Secretary position of the Communist Party, and let his successor take that position. The succession can take a couple of tenures. Overall, in the long run, as long as he holds his power, he can deal with the succession in numerous flexible ways. Right now he just does not want himself be confined by the problem of a successor. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):修正案通过后不久,“移民”这一词在的网上搜索量增加了十倍。有能力移民的家庭基本上都是中上层。他们怕的是什么?我们再来听听文昭的分析。
Soon after the amendments were approved, the search for immigration online increased ten-fold. Families who can afford to emigrate to another country largely belong to China’s upper middle class. Why are they afraid? Let’s hear from Wen Zhao again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝中共修宪之后网上关于移民的搜索增加了十倍。能移民的都是中产阶级以上的。你觉得他们对修宪怎么看?〞
“ After the amendment was passed, the keyword search ‘immigration‘ increased ten-fold. Families who can afford to emigrate to another country largely belong to China’s upper middle class. Can you speculate on their opinions to the newly passed constitutional amendment?”

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〞当然我没办法代替中国的中产阶级思考。但是移民搜索增加这个事可以分析一下。过去20年是中国的中产阶级成长壮大的20年。那这20年中走过来的人呢被反复灌输一种印象,就是中国在不断走向进步。在政治上经济上都是这样,只不过在政治上的步伐慢一些,那是因为中国情况特殊。什么人口太多国情复杂之类的。但是也会逐渐和世界潮流接轨。是这种印象。那国家领导人的任期制是从邓小平时代就达成的一种社会共识。似乎在相当的一段时间内,这个任期制它也行之有效,也完成了中共几辈领导人的权利交接,没有发生大的动荡。那么通过修宪取消这个任期制以后呢,给这一代人首先带来的冲击就是这个社会会平稳延续的印象被打破了。这几十年的习惯说改就改了。它并没有什么很强的制度性保障突破不了的。以前人们的想法是,政治环境是平稳的,然后自己安心过好日子就行了。别的就不用操心了。现在由于这个修宪的突如其来,就是这种安稳感受到了相当的触动。〞
“ I surely cannot think for China's middle class. Instead, let’s take a closer look at the increase in immigration searches. China's middle class has grown rapidly in the past 20 years. Chinese people have been repeatedly told the following propaganda that China has been making constant progress both politically and economically. It’s just that the political reform has been a step slower than the economic progress. This is because China is unique, with its huge population and complicated politics. Having said that, China is on its way to becoming a developed and democratic country. This is the image that the regime would like to engrave in everyone’s mind. The presidential term limit was a consensus reached in the Deng Xiaoping era. It appears that it has been working well for almost 4 decades, allowing smooth transfer of power from one generation of communist leaders to the next without social unrest. The abolishment of the term limit by amending the constitution, however, shattered the image of a stable society that has been progressing smoothly. The constitutional law that had been in place for decades can be annulled overnight. It means that there’s no institutional systems that cannot be broken, no matter how deeply rooted they may appear. People used to think that the political environment was stable, there was nothing to worry about as long as they were left alone to enjoy life. The false sense of security has been shaken by the unexpected constitutional amendment. ”

习近平与共产党将如何互动呢?下节继续探讨。
Coming up, what is the dynamic between Xi Jinping and the Party? Stay tuned.

中国的国内政治还是一团黑,但是习近平向西方传递的信号却非常清楚:在他的控制下,中国经济增长,在国际上和西方竞争,但是中国不会转型为西式民主政体。
Within Chinese territory, politics remain murky. However, in the West, the message Xi sent was loud and clear: Under Xi’s control, China will not morph into a Western-style democracy as its economy grows and competes on an international scale.

当很多人害怕会出现一个独裁者的时候,财富杂志的作家Salvatore Babones却见解独到:中国从来就没有一个强健的自由民主政体。它会保持一党专政。Babones指出了一个被许多人忽视的事实:〝习近平不是在强化一人独裁。他在强化以他为首的共党专政。〞
While many are fearful of a developing dictator, Fortune’s contributing writer Salvatore Babones understands it better: China has never been a vibrant liberal democracy. It will remain a one-party state. Babones also makes a distinction that many failed to recognize. Babone writes: “Xi isn't so much solidifying One Man Rule as he is solidifying One Party Rule, with himself at the head of the Party.”

中共赢得国共内战以后,始终牢牢控制中国大陆,共产党一党独大。毛泽东时代大搞对领袖的个人崇拜。入党对一个人来说意味着一切。在邓小平时代,党员身份仍然重要,因为它是获得名望和权力的途径。习近平时代,中国变得富有,中产阶级不入党也可以获得财富和权力。除了那些有志从政的人以外,中共的影响力已经下降。党员们也不再把党当回事,干正事不积极,只管为自己牟利。另一方面,与毛邓时代那些敢言的党内异议人士不同,今天的共党官员几乎全被习近平的权势所慑服。而更重要的是,他们早已良知无存。
Since Mao’s Civil War era, China has always been controlled by one party, the Chinese Communist Party, without any close rival. People worshipped Mao during that generation. Party identity meant everything to an individual. By Deng Xiaoping’s era, party association was still important, as membership was the way to earn fame and power. In Xi’s era, Chinese wealth grew, so did middle class’s ability to reach wealth and power outside of the Party’s association. That made the Party itself less relevant except for the people who want to pursue a path within government administrative work. Even party members themselves take the party less seriously as they focus on personal gain instead of actual governance. On the other hand, in contrast to those Party dissidents who stood up against the dictators in the Mao and Deng era, party officials today are mostly tamed, because they are afraid of Xi, but more importantly, they simply don’t care enough to fight.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):习近平与共产党之间的真实关系是什么样的?这对他的执政有什么影响?让我们来听文昭的见解。
What is the true relationship between Xi Jinping and the Party? And what does it mean for his rule? Let’s hear from Wen Zhao again.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝这次修宪创纪录高票通过,习近平全票当选国家主席,似乎显示他在党内的绝对权威,您觉得习近平和共产党的真实关系是什么?中国官僚阶层所表现出来的绝对忠诚对管理一个国家来说是好事还是坏事?〞
The amendments to the Constitution were passed with record high approval ratings. President Xi got his second term by unanimous votes. It seems that Xi has become the supreme leader of the Party. What do you think the true relationship is between Xi and the Party? Is the absolute loyalty shown by the Chinese bureaucrats good or bad for governing this country?

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝习近平迄今为止的表现是穷尽一切手段来挽救党。就包括他在十九大上连任党的总书记,做的第一件事就是带领剩下几个常委去共产党一大会址,去宣誓,表示永不叛党。这次他全票获得通过,到并不意味这官僚阶层的绝对忠诚。只是意味着他的权势足够大。大到没有人敢表达反对。如果说全票就代表忠诚,那伊拉克前总统萨达姆就是获得人们的衷心拥戴了。2002年10月份在伊拉克公投里面他获得了百分之百的支持。连任了7年的总统。但是他这回连7个月都没干满,转过年来2003年美国出兵伊拉克,那些头一年宣誓效忠, 要用生命保卫他的人,就做鸟兽散了。习近平他在挽救党的过程中,他的一些做法呢,反过来也让党出现了一些脱离既有轨道的迹象。比如他让政治局常会会这个决策机构被削弱了,现任的几个政治局常委是他不够信任的。不是他的嫡系。所以呢他通过一系列的手段削弱了国务院的权利。像这个新的国务院机构改革就起到了这个作用。李克强作为总理的角色被弱化了。但是同时呢习近平的亲信副总理刘鹤的地位突出了。同时他又让王岐山以一个普通党员的身份重新返聘上岗,跻身决策层,同时他让他比较信任的中纪委副书记杨晓度当这个国家监察委主任,而不是让中纪委书记赵乐际来兼任,所以他身边的一个小圈子已经比较明显了。这个小圈子掌握了更多决策的权力,就削弱了政治局常委会。所以这种变化呢它给中共这个体制带来了更多的不确定性。〞
“ Xi Jinping’s actions so far seem to be exhausting all means to rescue the Party. He was re-elected as General Secretary at the 19th National Congress meeting. The first thing he did post re-election was revisiting the site of the 1st National Congress meeting with other committee members to take an oath showing loyalty to the Party. Unanimous votes cannot be associated with absolute loyalty from the bureaucrats. It only means that Xi has sufficient power. His power is strong enough to ensure zero opposition. If unanimous votes mean absolute loyalty, then Iraq’s former president Saddam Hussein would have won whole-hearted support of his people. In October 2002, he received unanimous support in the Iraqi referendum. He was re-elected as president for seven years. However, he wasn’t even able to maintain his power for seven months this time. Subsequently, in 2003, the United States sent troops to Iraq; the people who swore allegiance on their lives in the previous year disappeared. In Xi’s rescue mission, some of his actions also sidetracked the Party. For example, he weakened the decision-making body of the Politburo Standing Committee. The current members are not trustworthy. They don’t belong to his loyal clan. Therefore, he weakened the State Council’s rights through a series of measures. The reformed new State Council has played this role. The role of Li Keqiang as a Premier of the State Council was weakened. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping’s trusted vice premier Liu He stood out. He also allowed Wang Qishan to return to decision-making level as a general party member. At the same time, he let his trusted deputy Yang Xiaodu be the director of the National Supervision Committee instead of Zhao Leji, the secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. It is obvious who belongs to Xi’s small circle of trusted members. This small group now holds more power to make decisions. This weakens the Politburo Standing Committee. Therefore, this change brought more uncertainty to the CCP’s system.”

川普签署了台湾旅行法。这会对美中关系有什么影响?下节继续探讨。
Coming up, Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act. What will this do to U.S.-China relations? Stay tuned.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):当习近平在中国忙着搞政治运动的时候,川普总统也没閒着。他在最后一刻签署了台湾旅行法。几天之后,他宣布要对价值500 到600 亿美元之间的中国进口商品,征收25%的关税。他似乎已经忘掉了和习近平之间良好的私人关系,至少现在如此。
While Xi makes waves in the East, President Trump is busy as well. He signed the Taiwan Travel Act at the last minute, and a few days later, he pledged to slap 25% tariffs on $50 to $60 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S. His good relationship with Xi Jinping seems to be forgotten, at least for now.

在美中贸易战一触即发的时刻,川普总统签署了台湾旅行法。这个法案鼓励美国和台湾的各级政府官员进行官方互动。
Just when the U.S. and China were on the verge of a trade war, President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act. This act encourages officials at all levels of government to officially meet with their Taiwanese counterparts in Taiwan and vice versa.

这个是重要事件。因为美台无邦交已有快40年了。1979年,在一中政策下,美国断绝了与台湾的外交关系。
This is significant because the U.S. hasn’t recognized Taiwan diplomatically for almost 40 years. In 1979 the U.S. cut formal ties with Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China under its “one China” policy.

1979年之后,台湾官员不定期造访美国,美国也派代表到台湾。但是为了不触怒中国大陆,双方的会面都很低调,。尽管美国和台湾还没有正式建交,但是这个台湾旅行法象征性的支持民主台湾。这让中共政权非常不愉快。
Since 1979, Taiwanese officials have occasionally visited the US, and US representatives have traveled to Taiwan, but meetings have been low profile to avoid offending China. Although the U.S. still doesn’t have formal ties with the island, this new legislation symbolically supports Democratic Taiwan, and this has made the Chinese regime very unhappy.

那么谁来处理这个局势呢?
Now who is going to deal with all these changes……

Rex Tillerson被前CIA局长Mike Pompeo代替。后者对中国态度更鹰派。他视中国为美国的直接竞争对手,担忧中国可能会威胁到美国的国家安全。与此同时,王岐山在中国被选为国家副主席。他是习近平的长期盟友,领导了习近平的反腐运动。他升任国家副主席之后,外界普遍预期他会主导中美外交事务。
Rex Tillerson was replaced by former CIA Director Mike Pompeo who is more hawkish against China. He views China as a direct rival to America and is deeply concerned over security threats brought by the second largest economy. Meanwhile, Wang Qishan was elected as Xi’s vice president. He has been a longstanding ally to Xi and led Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. With his promotion to vice president, industry experts expect him to be the leading diplomat in dealing with the U.S.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):贸易战已经开始,台湾旅行法也释放出强烈信号。川普对中共政府越来越强硬的时候,习近平让他的最忠实盟友来处理中美关系。这些对美中关系都意味着什么?来听一下我对《标准周刊》副编辑Ethan Epston的采访。
The trade war has started and the Taiwan Travel Act sends a strong signal. Xi Jinping’s most loyal ally will deal with America while President Trump is putting more hawks on his team. What does all this mean for U.S. - China relations? Here is my discussion with Ethan Epstein, Associate editor of the 《Weekly Standard》.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普总统在最后一刻签署了台湾旅行法。他在释放什么信号? 他的目的是什么?〞
“President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Act at the last minute. What signal was he sending, and what does he want to achieve?”

Ethan Epstein( 《标准周刊》副编辑):〝有几点要说。第一,他擅长营造戏剧性, 所以往往故意等到最后一刻再公布决定。比如,他的司法部长开除了FBI副局长Andrew McCabe,McCabe当时只差两个小时就达到退休条件了。我认为这多少是川普戏剧化性格的表现,他做的很多事都是在吊人胃口。第二, 是释放信号,显示美中关系进入了一个新阶段。他当总统的第一年,总统试着和习近平搞好关系。他邀请他去Mar-a-Largo庄园,他们相处愉快,然后他自己去了北京。但是今年以来总统似乎要对北京强硬。显然,中国不喜欢台湾旅行法,但是目前总统对挑战中国丝毫不惧。〞
“Well, a couple things. He kind of has a flair for drama. So he likes to do a lot of things at the last minute. And, for example, his attorney general fired Andrew McCabe at 10 p.m. on the last day he could fire him before his retirement went in. So I think that’s sort of the dramatic persona of Trump. A lot of the timing of the things he does is sort of to heighten the sense of suspense. The second part of that is, I think, to signal this kind of new phase of our relations with China. During his first year in office, the president tried to strike a kind of harmonious tone with Xi Jinping. You know, he invited him to Mar-a-Lago, they had a nice visit, then he went to Beijing himself. But it seems like this year the president has taken a more hard line on China. Obviously, China does not like this law, but the president seems okay at this point with poking his finger in Beijing’s eye.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝台湾旅行法会根本改变美台关系吗?〞
“Will the Taiwan Travel Act fundamentally change U.S. - Taiwan relations?”

Ethan Epstein( 《标准周刊》副编辑):〝我看不出来美台关系会根本改变。我是说,美国明显还在维持一中政策,这个根本点并没有变,但是这个法案很明显会被北京视为挑衅。他们明确表示,对台湾的任何帮助都是对他们主权的侵犯。所以我认为这至少会被视为敌对举动,甚至是不能容忍的。〞
“I don’t know if I would suggest that they would fundamentally change. I mean, the US is obviously maintaining the “one China” policy, etc. So there hasn’t been that kind of shift, but this clearly will be viewed as a provocation by Beijing. They’ve made it clear that any accommodations to Taiwan they view as an attack on their sovereignty. So it will definitely, if not poison things, it will be seen as an act of aggression, I think.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝川普这样做的目的是什么?想增加贸易谈判的筹码?〞
“So what does Trump want to achieve from this after all? For example, bargaining power in trade?”

Ethan Epstein( 《标准周刊》副编辑):〝我认为川普想迫使中国做两件事:一是对平壤强硬,二是在对美贸易上做出让步,比如停止政府出口补贴,对美开放一直被保护的那部分中国市场。那是他的两个目标。所以我认为他是通过旁敲侧击来施压。我认为台湾对他来说并不重要。因此我相信他这么做,是为了断绝北韩的贸易渠道。〞
“ I think the two big things that Trump wants from China is China to take a harder line on Pyongyang and to make concessions on trade by, for example, stopping subsidies of its industries or perhaps opening its own markets to American companies in a way they haven’t thus far. Those are his two goals. So I think he uses other things to kind of push them in a certain direction. And, yes, I don’t think Taiwan is really a particular personal priority for him. So I do think that he probably took this action to push North Korea (sic) on other topics like trade in North Korea.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝王岐山刚刚当选国家副主席。他一直是习近平的亲密伙伴, 普遍估计王会负责对外关系,尤其是中美关系。那么Mike Pompeo和王岐山的互动会对美中关系有什么影响?他们会怎么处理朝鲜危机、南海争端、台湾问题和贸易纠纷?〞
“You know China just elected Wang Qishan to be the vice president. He has been Xi Jinping’s closest ally who helped him consolidate power through the anti-corruption campaign. It is widely suspected that he will be responsible for foreign relations, especially relations with the US. So what will the Mike Pompeo and Wang Qishan dynamic do to US-China relations? How would the North Korea crisis, South China sea tension, Taiwan and trade disputes be handled in their hands? ”

Ethan Epstein( 《标准周刊》副编辑):〝中美之间未来会出现对抗。 Mike Pompeo更硬派,性格更强势。明显的,王先生作为习近平的助手,他在中国的外交政策上采取了强势态度,表现的咄咄逼人。所以我认为会有激烈的冲突。问题是他们需要找到一种共通语言,让两个硬汉能交流并且达成协议;否则就会打得不可开交,然后不欢而散。观察他们两人的工作和互动会很有意思。但可以肯定的是,这两强会在很多重要问题上交手。〞
“Well, it’s going to be contentious, I think Mike Pompeo was a more hawkish, a more assertive personality. And, obviously, Mr. Wang has – being attached to Xi Jinping, he was taking a very assertive line on Chinese foreign policy too, has been quite aggressive. So I think sparks will fly. The question is will they be able to find a common language where it’s two tough guys that can understand each other and they can hash out agreements, or will they just end up pulling each other’s hair out and walking away. It’ll be interesting to see what the interpersonal dynamics are and how they work. But it’s certainly two assertive guys that are going to be having to deal with each other on a lot of important subjects.”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):相似的问题在听一下文昭先生的看法。
For similar questions, let’s hear from Wen Zhao as well.

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):〝彭佩奥如果当上了国务卿,他的对手就会是王岐山。现在马上需要处理的就是贸易战。你觉得在他们两人之下,中美贸易战会是怎样的一个状态?〞
“ If Mike Pompeo were to become the next Secretary of State, his Chinese counterpart/opponent would be Mr. Wang Qishan. What needs to be dealt with immediately is a potential trade war. Can you speculate on how the trade war would proceed between US and China under Pompeo and Wang?”

文昭(新唐人资深评论员):〝这个贸易纠纷我想首先会是双方的经贸官员的接触,就是中国这边的刘鹤和美国的贸易部长商务谈判代表接触。王岐山他以何种方式出现,何时出现以及扮演何种角色,现在还不是太确定。也许他会在相当程度上介入贸易谈判。也许暂时还会保持距离。这个贸易战总的态势来讲,因为中国是处于大幅度贸易顺差的地位,所以他的损失呢会大一些。中方的报复手段也比较少。就是他能打的牌不多。中国从美国进口的商品,排在最前面的两样,一个是飞机及其发动机和零部件,第二就是大豆。他很难拿这种大宗商品作为贸易报复的手段。因为中国可以选择的替代供货少。你飞机不买波音就得买空客,可是空客它富余的生产能力也很有限,你的订单挤进去,那别人的订单就得延期交付。那你就要支付很高的成本。同时空客它如果忙不过来,它加班也忙不过来,满足不了别的顾客的时候呢,其他顾客又会转回到波音那里去买。所以这类报复手段中国也会受到很大的损失,给美国带来的净损失能有多大呢,也未必像想像的那样。所以他现在不会立刻把这种商品加入贸易报复的名单。像彭佩奥和王岐山这样的人加入决策,它对双方贸易的基本格局不会产生什么影响,因为那是客观存在的。只是说对双方的决策会有一定的影响。彭佩奥进入了川普团队以后他会强化美国政府的强硬立场。〞
“To deal with the trade dispute, I believe there will be contacts between the officials in charge of trade and business from both sides, which means China’s Liu He and Wilbur Ross would reach out to each other. It’s still unclear how and when Wang Qishan would get involved, and what role he would play. Perhaps he may step in to a considerable extent. He may also keep his hands off the negotiations temporarily. Here’s my overall assessment of the trade war -- because China has been enjoying a significant trade surplus, consequently, it has more to lose. China’s retaliatory measures are also limited due to the lack of strong hands in this game. China's top imports from the US are aircrafts, jet engines and accessories, followed by soybeans. It’s hard for China to retaliate in the above two categories because there’s few alternative suppliers. If you won’t buy Boeing, then you have to buy Airbus. However, Airbus’s capacity is also very limited. If your orders have to be expedited, then other orders would have to be delayed. Then you have to pay a higher price. In the meantime, if Airbus reaches its full capacity and can no longer produce airplanes fast enough to meet the demands, other buyers would turn to Boeing. Therefore, such retaliation would also hurt China. The net loss inflicted on the US may not be as great as what China had expected. As a result, China would not add these commodities to the list of trade retaliation right away. Pompeo and Wang’s involvement (in trade war or trade negotiations) would not have much impact on the final outcome, because the frameworks and foundation of trade between the two countries would determine it. I suspect that they may have some influence on the decision-making process. Pompeo’s joining the Trump administration would harden the position of the US government. ”

萧茗(Host/Simone Gao):2018年美中关系开局就充满火药味:台湾旅行法;美国对进口的钢材和铝材的加关税;对500到600亿美元的中国商品征收25%的关税。我们还不知道下面会发生什么,但是现在贸易战还没有全面爆发,中国怎么应对,值得观察。目前中国的回应手段比美国出的招数要软的多。但是,这会持续下去吗?这些重要话题,《世事关心》将为您持续报导。感谢您收看这期节目,下次再见。
U.S.-China relations were off to a rough start in 2018. The Taiwan Travel Act, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, and 25% tariffs on $50-60 billion in Chinese exports. We don’t know what’s next. However, in terms of a trade war, it is not full-blown yet. It will be interesting to see how China reacts to it. So far, China’s retaliation has not matched its counterpart. But, will it stay that way in the future? Stay tuned, Zooming In will follow up on all these important topics of our time. Thanks for watching, I am Simone Gao. See you next time.


==============================

策划:萧茗
撰稿:萧茗 Michelle Wan Jessica Beatty
剪辑:郭靖 柏妳 凌帆 唐彬
翻译:张晓峰 韩笑生 唐彬
校对:李容真
听打:Jessica Beatty 张晓峰
摄影:Jimmy Song
特效:Harrison Sun
文稿整理:Merry Jiang
合成:唐彬

反馈请寄:ssgx@ntdtv.com
主持人配饰由云坊Yun Boutique 提供
《世事关心》2018年3月

==============================

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