【新唐人2014年12月22日讯】在经济制裁、油价下跌、卢布贬值的三重压力之下，俄罗斯经济备受到重挫。而普京政府是否会垮台，也被国家社会所关注，作为普京政府关系密切的中共当局，对俄罗斯将采取什么样的立场和态度，普京和北京将面临什么样的挑战，请看专家分析。
尽管俄罗斯央行几次加息，几个月来，卢布还是持续下跌，触及历史低点——1美元兑换50卢布的“死亡线”，卢布兑美元年内跌幅超过55%。
据美国《华尔街日报》17号报导，莫斯科居民纷纷提取卢布兑换美元和欧元，导致下午2点，俄罗斯储蓄银行莫斯科分行的外汇就被兑换光光。
而苹果公司(Apple Inc.)则表示，由于卢布的剧烈波动，已经暂停在俄罗斯的网路销售。家俱销售商宜家(IKEA)也宣布，在俄罗斯上调价格。
10月份，中共央行与俄罗斯联邦中央银行，签署了规模为1500亿元人民币/8150亿卢布的双边本币互换协议。外界质疑，中共在为卢布兜底。
有媒体评论说，中共在没有摸清俄罗斯危机有多深的情况之下贸然行动，中国对俄罗斯的任何施救都极有可能演变成为自残行为。
不过，近几个月来国际油价下跌接近一半，对于油气出口占财政收入一半以上的俄罗斯来说，损失惨重，加上国际社会因乌克兰问题实施制裁，对俄罗斯造成的冲击，使一贯为普京唱赞歌的大陆媒体，也开始调转方向。
大陆门户“新浪网”，发表题为“俄罗斯上演货币危机 或撼动普京掌权根基”的文章说，尽管普京将卢布崩盘归咎于投机分子和西方国家，不过对俄罗斯经济而言，货币危机意味着一场信用危机，增加了民众对普京支持率下滑的危险。
中共海外喉舌《环球时报》报导说，卢布16号对美元“充满野性的暴跌”让“普京危险了”。
美国《中国事务》杂志总编伍凡：“（俄国）抢了中国那么多土地，老百姓没有忘记，现在这一场俄国的变化会影响到中国的变化，因为希望两家联手对抗美国，是中共的长期思路，现在俄国走到这个结局，中国人帮不了忙的，再买多少石油也没有用，如果俄国真的倒了，中国和美国的关系会不会也发生变化呢，这个趋势是全局性的，来势非常急迫。”
白宫发言人欧内斯特日前表示，欧巴马有意签署美国国会刚通过的制裁俄罗斯新法案。目前俄罗斯有40%食品来源于进口。而塑料工业，一直需要依靠进口来解决内需问题。
伍凡：“西方给它一制裁，所有的农产品不进口了，老百姓生活马上变苦，老百姓对普京的支持度就下降。过去的共产党只管军事工业、重工业，不管民生工业，这个思路一直延续下来，普京就是共产党嘛，普京是共产党里的特务头子，所以经济思路是这么走下来的。”
美国《中国事务》杂志总编伍凡认为，蒲亭现在唯一的办法，只能利用外汇储备购进卢布，来缓解卢布下滑。
不过，在俄罗斯4150亿的外汇储备中，除去不能流动的黄金和1700亿主权基金，能够流动的外汇储备基金只剩下1000亿左右。而俄罗斯经济部认为，今年资本外流规模可能达到1200亿美元。
17号，俄罗斯财政部放出要抛售70亿美元外汇的消息，最终使卢布汇率一度重返60以内。
中国金融智库专家巩胜利：“把它的家底算清楚了，如果它的美元储备已经花完，他就没有其它办法，按照现在这么发展，简单的说，它占领克里米亚不吐出来就是自取灭亡。”
美国国务卿克里(John Kerry) 17号表示，根据普京的行动，制裁“可能会在几周或几天内解除”。
当天晚上，普京与乌克兰、德国和法国的国家元首通了电话。这些政府随后发布的声明，要巩固上周以来已经大体实现的乌克兰东部停火。
《纽约时报》报导说，新的经济形势必然会迫使俄罗斯专注于国内危机，越来越多的迹象表明，亲俄罗斯分裂份子和乌克兰方面将在欧洲的协助下，将很快举行会晤。
采访编辑/刘惠 后制/舒灿
Ruble Crash Tests Putin and Beijing
Thanks to economic sanctions, plummeting oil prices
and devaluation of the ruble, Russia’s economy tumbles.
Recently other countries have been concerned
about the following things:
Whether Putin’s government would collapse;
What attitude would the Chinese regime,
so-called close ally of Russia, have towards Russia;
Whether it would change from “hoping Russia
not to fall" into adding fuel to the flame making the ruble
fall further, or conversely give up on Russia
and turn to the United States?
Please see the following experts’ analyses.
Though the Russian central bank has raised interest rates
several times, the ruble still continues to fall in recent months,
Its exchange rate against U.S. dollar has hit a record low
of 50 to 1, which is “on the verge of death line".
In fact, the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar
has plummeted over 55 percent this year.
Most Moldovans working in Russia] converted
the rubles they earned into dollars or euros before sending them
back to their families, leading to a Moscow branch of Sberbank
to run out of foreign currency by 2 p.m, reported Wall Street Journal.
Apple Inc. said that due to the volatility of the ruble,
online sales in Russia have been suspended.
Furniture manufacturer IKEA also announced
price hikes in Russia.
In October, the Chinese regime’s Central Bank
and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation signed
a scale of 150 billion yuan/815 billion rubles of bilateral
currency swap agreements.
Outsiders doubted that the Chinese regime was to
reveal all the details for rubles.
Some media commented that before the Chinese regime is
clear about the seriousness of risk to the ruble,
any action taken by the Chinese regime to rescue Russia
is likely to become a self-injurious behavior.
Now, international oil prices have fallen by nearly half
in recent months.
As the proceeds from oil and gas exports account for
over half of Russian national revenue, losses for Russia
are tremendous.
Additionally, international sanctions resulting from the
Ukrainian problem have imposed further impact on Russia.
Given these, Chinese media that long supported Putin,
have started to reverse direction.
Chinese Internet portal “Sina" published an article entitled
“Russia currency crisis may shake the foundation of Putin’s power."
It said that though Putin blamed the collapse of the ruble
on opportunists and Western countries,
to Russia’s economy, the currency crisis means
a credit crisis, and it may have the risk of pushing down people’s
support rate for Putin.
The Chinese regime’s overseas mouthpiece, the “Global Times,"
reported the sharp plunge of the ruble against the dollar on
Dec. 16 pushed Putin to a “dangerous situation."
Chris Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine:
“(Russia) has grabbed so much land from China,
and the Chinese people haven’t forgotten it.
Russia’s turmoil at present may affect China’s attitude
toward Russia.
Working hand in hand to fight against the United States has long
been the Chinese regime’s long-term thinking,
but Russia has encountered this kind of situation now.
So, Chinese are unable to help it out.
Regardless of how much oil it would purchase from Russia,
it would be useless.
Should Russia really fall, will the relationship between China
and the United States be changed?
This is a global trend, and it is very urgent."
White House Press Secretary Josh Ernest said the other day
that Obama intended to sign the Russian sanctions bill
newly passed by the U.S. Congress.
Currently Russia imports 40 percent of food from other countries.
As to the plastics industry,
it has long relied on imports to solve domestic problems.
Chris Wu: “Once the West imposes sanctions, no agricultural
products would be imported.
The people’s livelihood would immediately become harder,
and in turn, people’s support rate for Putin would decline.
In the past, the Communist Party only attached importance
to military and heavy industry,
regardless of people’s living and the livelihood industry.
This ideology has long been inherited.
As Putin is a Communist, and is head of the KGB,
his economic thinking would definitely be like this."
Chris Wu believes that the only way for Putin now is to use
foreign exchange reserves to purchase rubles to ease
its plunge.
However, in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves of $415 billion,
apart from the gold and the $170 billion of the sovereign wealth
funds, the foreign exchange reserves that can flow are only
about $100 billion.
Russian Economic Ministry estimated that the capital outflow
this year may reach the level of $120 billion.
On Dec. 17, the Russian Ministry of Finance released a piece
of news that it would sell $ 7 billion of foreign exchange,
and it triggered the exchange rate to drop to less than 60 rubles
against the U.S. dollar.
China Financial Research think tank expert Gong Shengli:
“We should make sure if it’s run out of dollar reserves.
it would have no other way.
In accordance with the current development, if it refused to
withdraw from the occupied Crimea,
it would be kind of self-defeating."
US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Dec. 17 that
depending on Putin’s actions,
sanctions “may be lifted within a few weeks or a few days."
In the evening, Putin phoned the heads of state of Ukraine,
Germany and France.
These governments then issued a statement that
the largely achieved ceasefire in eastern Ukraine last week
should be further solidified.
New York Times reported that the new economic situation
will inevitably force Russia to focus on the domestic crisis.
More and more signs show that the pro-Russian separatists
and Ukraine, with assistance from Europe,
will have a meeting soon.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ShuCan
