【新唐人2014年08月29日讯】8月27号，俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫在一次非正式的会面上表示，“没有必要担心中共对俄罗斯提出领土要求”。拉夫罗夫的这番讲话经过俄罗斯国家电视新闻频道播出后，在舆论界引起反响。评论认为，从中可以解读出中俄目前的微妙关系。
“没有必要担心中国对俄罗斯提出领土要求。”这是8月27号，在特维尔地区，拉夫罗夫在和“全俄罗斯青年论坛”参加者们，举行非正式会面时说的一句话。《BBC中文网》说，俄罗斯国家的电视新闻频道播出了拉夫罗夫的讲话。
拉夫罗夫的这番讲话曝光后，海内外媒体纷纷转载报导。当天，《BBC》引述《泰晤士报》评论版博伊斯的文章说，中共目前比以往任何时候都更需要俄国，一系列迹象都表明，双方在重新调整战略定位。
中共为什么把蒲亭当回事呢？文章说，现实的原因包括，蒲亭将争取连任到2018年，而习近平的任期会到2022年，以及“离2034年很近了”。
“2034年”，是一位俄国的中国事务学者预言的，第三次世界大战在中美之间爆发的年份。这位学者还分析，中共需要连续20多年保持军费两位数的增长，才能与美国和日本在东亚的军事实力齐平。另外，中共还得在此之前搞定三件事：一、降低对西方市场的依赖；二、确保原材料的陆地进口通道顺畅；三、找好强大的盟友并夯实关系。
时政评论员伍凡表示，中共现在是东部、西部、南部“三面临敌”。如果中、日、美之间交锋，中共现在基本没有帮手。
时政评论员伍凡：“俄国人会帮中国去打美国吗？不会的。俄国人希望你在中国美国之间，中国打败。那么俄国在南边没有一个强大的压力。这是从它们内心里边是这样要求的。所以它也不会帮你。”
伍凡指出，中共从战略上不希望北方再有一个敌人。所以，对于中共来说，现在不是向俄罗斯提出领土要求的时候。
时政评论员伍凡：“那么中俄之间有没有往来，有啊，起码有边界还连接着，还有经济往来，贸易往来还有金融往来，做生意。但是它不会结成联盟。所以在这种状况下，拉夫罗夫可以肯定讲，你为了要对付美国和日本，你怎么可能再跟俄国人要领土呢？不增加敌人了吗？”
今年5月份，俄罗斯总统蒲亭开始访华，中俄双方不仅签订了“经济贸易协议”，同时还进行了军事演习，被外界看作是结盟的信号。不过，西方国家指出，中俄两国在领土方面存在矛盾，因此，拉夫罗夫的这番讲话，被认为是对外界的一次回应。
时事评论员蓝述：“俄罗斯的外长谈这个事情，从另外一个角度上我们可以证实，俄国方面已经从北京方面获得了默契。也就是北京高层不会从此事上去做文章。”
不过，博伊斯在文章中指出，对于心怀焦虑的中共，俄国扮演了日益亲密的伙伴的角色，但是蒲亭跟戈尔巴乔夫正好相反。俄国正在拉拢中共，密切俄中关系，而西方必须说服北京，不跟着蒲亭的指挥棒转。
博伊斯强调，中共总书记习近平跟蒲亭签约的话，最终会发现在深水区扑腾挣扎的是自己。
“摩根士丹利”4月份曾发布研究报告称，俄罗斯经济已接近于进入衰退周期。8月26号，据《俄罗斯新闻社》报导，“俄罗斯经济发展部宏观经济分析局”局长奥列格•扎索夫（Oleg Zasov）说，经济已接近衰退。
采访/朱智善 编辑/凯欣 后制/李智远
Russian Official Reveals China and Russia’s Delicate Relations
On August 27, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said
that there is no need to worry about the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP)”s territorial claims against Russia.
Lavrov’s remarks caused reverberations in public opinion
after broadcasted via Russian state television.
Commentators say it reveals the delicate relationship
between China and Russia.
＂No need to worry about the CCP＂s territorial claims
against Russia.＂
This is what Lavrov said on Aug. 27 during an informal
meeting with participants of the “All-Russian Youth Forum"
held in Russia’s Tver region.
The BBC’s Chinese language website reported that Russia’s
state news channel broadcasted Lavrov’s speech.
Overseas media widely reported Lavrov’s remarks.
On the same day, BBC quoted an article by Roger Boyes of
british newspaper, The Times, saying that the CCP needs
Russia more than ever and that a series of factors show that
the two sides are re-adjusting their strategic positioning.
Why does the CCP take Putin seriously?
The article said Putin will seek re-election to stay up to 2018,
while Xi Jinping’s tenure goes to 2022, very close to 2034.
According to prediction of a Russian scholar of China affairs,
World War III between the U.S. and China will happen in 2034.
The scholar also analyzed that the CCP has to maintain
double-digit growth in military spending for 20 consecutive
years to keep up with U.S. and Japan in East Asia.
In addition, the CCP needs to get three things done:
First, to reduce dependence on Western markets;
Second, to ensure smooth channels of raw materials over land;
Third, to find good strong allies and reinforce relationships.
Commentator Wu Fan says the CCP faces enemies
to the East, West and South.
If confrontation happens between China, Japan, and the U.S.,
the CCP has no help.
Wu Fan: ＂Will the Russians help China to fight the U.S.?
No, they want China defeated in a battle with the U.S.
Then Russia wouldn’t have a strong threat in the south.
This is what they need, so they will not help.”
Wu says the CCP does not want
another enemy in the North.
So for the CCP, it is not the time to raise the issue of territory.
Wu Fan: ＂Are there any activities between China and Russia?
Yes, there are economic relations and trade relations,
as well as financial business.
But they will not form a coalition.
So in this situation, Lavrov said how can you ask for territory
from Russia while dealing with the U.S. and Japan?
Won’t that add more enemies?＂
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China in May.
China and Russia signed an Economic and Trade Agreement,
and also conducted joint military exercises.
The outside world regarded this as a sign of alliance.
However, Western countries indicated that there are conflicts
between China and Russia in terms of territory.
Lavrov’s remarks are considered to be a confirmation of this
to the outside world.
Lan Shu, commentator: “Russia’s Foreign Minister words
have confirmed Russia has an understanding with Beijing.
Beijing’s high-levels will not continue to make a fuss on this."
However, Boyes says in his article that with the CCP anxious,
Russia plays the role of an increasingly intimate partner.
But Putin is the opposite of the former soviet leader.
Boyes says Russia wants to win over the CCP and
build a close Russian-Chinese relationship,
and the West must convince Beijing not to follow Putin’s will.
Boyes emphasized that if Xi Jinping signed any treaty
with Putin, he will eventually find himself suffering for it.
Financial services corporation Morgan Stanley reported in
April 2014 that the Russian economy is close to a recession.
Interview/Zhu ZhiShan Edit/KaiXin Post-Production/Li ZhiYuan
