【新唐人2011年10月24日讯】今年以来，美国和欧洲经济不景气，引发了各国对世界经济“二次衰退”的担忧。而在中国，企业主因还不起贷款逃亡的现象频繁出现，资金链断裂几乎蔓延所有行业，房地产已成为“地雷”。经济分析人士认为，这是中国经济崩溃的不祥之兆。
日前，世界上两位知名的经济评论人士鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼和吉姆•夏诺斯，都对中国的经济前景表示悲观，他们声称，经济硬着陆已经无法避免。
英国《金融时报》表示，在过去两三个月里，投资者们对中国的经济，笼罩在一股极度悲观的情绪中，中国的经济危机凸显。
报导说，中国大陆目前从房地产到制造业，几乎所有行业都在经历资金链断裂的痛苦。无论是政府的融资平台还是官方的投资公司，无论是银行还是上市公司，无论是国企还是私企，无论是铁路投资还是其他产业的扩张，无论是温州还是鄂尔多斯……都面临着资金链断裂的风险。
在被视为中国经济风向标的温州，仅八月和九月间就发生了40起企业主逃亡的案子，原因在于无法偿还地下钱庄的贷款。数据显示，温州民间借贷市场规模将近1100亿元，比去年同期增长近40%。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学教授谢田认为，由于民营的中小企业向来受国有银行的歧视，中共银根紧缩的政策对他们的影响很大。
谢田：“他没有资金周转的时候，最近世界经济比较差，中国出口受挫，这些小企业生存越来越危机的时候，从国有银行得不到钱，他们只能从地下钱庄去要钱。而更多的企业陷入这种境况的时候呢，就会把利率越推越高，那些人明知道这个是不可能还得了的，他还要铤而走险去借个高利贷，就说明中国的经济状况和金融状况都处在一个很危机的情况。”
德国《世界报》认为，现在的中国，不仅地下钱庄面临资金链断裂的危机，国有商业银行和股份制银行同样在劫难逃，特别是面临巨额的坏账威胁。地方债务按中共当局的说法有10.7万亿元，其中40%今年到期。很多地方政府根本没有偿还能力，这将导致银行再一次出现巨额不良资产。
另外，与资金链断裂并驾齐驱的风险是房地产。中国城市商业银行资金清算中心理事长王世豪在9月份坦言，房地产20万亿元的贷款，已成为中国银行业的一颗“地雷”。
王世豪说，银行目前贷款总量是55万亿元，房地产行业的贷款已经占到银行贷款总量的36%，开发商必须要到别的地方去拿钱，低廉资金时代已经结束。
有数据显示，中国大陆70座城市中有16座城市的新房价格8月份比7月份下降。虽然银行方面声称可以承受房价下跌四成，但沪宁的退房潮仍显示有越来越多的人看淡市场，通过在房地产市场套现填补其他资金缺口。
谢田教授认为，现在开发商手中握有大量房产滞销难以变现，商品房已经严重供过于求，鄂尔多斯的“鬼城”现象层出不穷。房地产商的资金链开始紧张，还贷压力越来越大。
谢田：“现在这个资金链断裂的事情已经迫在眉睫了。一旦由地下钱庄引起的，和国有银行私下拿钱去放贷，这些问题集中爆发的时候，就会把连带的房地产市场的问题就一起爆发出来。这样的话，中国的整个金融体系泡沫就会破灭。”
同时，资金短缺的危机还波及到了政府投资的重大项目。《第一财经日报》报导，全国铁路建设由于资金问题，拖欠工人工资引发工人不满，建设单位、供应商难为无米之炊。全国范围内停工的铁路项目里程在1万公里以上。
中铁隧道集团副总工程师王梦恕日前坦言：“从东北到西南，从西北到东南，大部分铁路项目都停了。”
《德国金融时报》表示，北京对贷款的供应和价格已缺乏掌控，因为地下银行提供给经济界的资金总和已超过了官方银行。中国目前不仅没有能力挽救欧洲，而且能否保持自己的航向也成问题。
新唐人记者常春、李明飞、葛雷采访报导。
China’s Economy Is Facing a Major Crisis
With the recent economic downturn in the U.S. and Europe,
everyone is worried that the global economy will slip back into a recession.
In China, many entrepreneurs have just ‘walked away,’
after defaulting on their loans, causing a chain-reaction all across China.
Real estate has become a veritable “landmine”.
Analysts see this as an ominous sign that the Chinese economy
is close to collapse.
Two world famous economic commentators,
Nouriel Roubini and Jim Chanos,
have adopted a pessimistic stance on the Chinese economy,
saying it is in for a hard landing.
According to The Financial Times, in the past 2 to 3 months,
investors are in a rather gloomy mood over the Chinese economy, as they watch a crisis emerging.
Reports indicate that from real estate to manufacturing,
almost all areas in mainland China are suffering from
a loan-default chain reaction, including banks,
government’s financing schemes, investment companies and joint-stock banks.
Whether its state-owned or private, whether its a rail investment
or an expansion of some other industry,
whether it is located in Wenzhou or Ordos…
all are facing the risk of this chain reaction.
Wenzhou city is said to be the weathervane of
China’s economy.
But in August and September alone, more than 40 cases
were reported of entrepreneurs ‘skipping town’ after being unable to repay their loans.
Statistics show that the size of Wenzhou’s private lending market,
which is nearly RMB 11 billion (US$1.72 billion), increased nearly 40 percent over the same period, last year.
Professor Xie Tian of the University of South Carolina,
believes that as China tightens its monetary policy,
small and medium private enterprises
will be impacted the most.
Xie Tian: “When they are tight on cash flow.
China’s exports are down, due to a downturn in the global economy,
thus, business owners are unable to get loans from
state-owned banks.
Therefore, they have to borrow money from
private lending companies.
As more and more businesses do this, loan rates will rise.
Even though these business owners know that
they won’t be able to repay their loans,
they nevertheless take the risk and
borrow money from these loan-sharking companies.
It shows that the Chinese economy is
in seriosus financisal danger.”
German Welt thinks that not only is the private lending
market in China facing a capital chain reaction,
but also state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks,
especially when they’re saddled with many bad loans.
According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
local goverenment debt is averaging about RMB 1.07 billion,
or (US$167.62 million), 40% of which is due this year.
Many local governments are unable to repay their debt,
which is leading to huge loan defaults.
Alongside the capital chain reaction, is the real estate market,
which is another risky side of the economy.
China’s central commercial bank clearing center director,
Wang Shihao, admitted in September that RMB 20 trillion
(US$3.13 trillion) in outsatnding real estate loans,
has been a “landmine” to the Chinese banking industry.
Wang said, “The total amount of outstanding bank loans
is RMB 55 trillion (US$8.61 trillion), 36% of which is real estate.
Developers must get their money from somewhere else,
thus, the low-interest loans era has ended.
Statistics show that in 16 of 70 mainland cities,
the price of new apartments in August is lower than in July.
Although banks claim that they can bear with real estate prices
falling around 40%,
the trend of people back off their property purchases
in Shanghai and Nanjing, shows that more and more people see the real estate market as bearish.
People are taking their money out of real estate
to fill the capital hole they have in other investments.
Professor Xie Tian now thinks that real estate developers
have a lot of apartments that they are finding hard to sell.
In other words, the supply is larger than the demand.
Empty communities can be seen in many places.
Real estate developers’ cash flow is not very good,
and the pressure they feel in repaying their loans is growing.
Xie Tian: “The capital chain reaction is right around the corner.
Once it’s triggered in the private lending sector
and among state-owned banks, the real estate market will be affected.
When this happens, China’s financial bubble will pop.”
Meanwhile, a shortage of cash is affecting
big government projects.
First Financial Daily reported that railway construction workers
aren’t being paid on time, because these companies are short on cash.
There are currently over 10,000 KM (6,213 miles)
of suspended railway projects in the country.
Deputy chief engineer of China Railway Tunnel Group,
Wang Mengshu, has admitted: “From the northeast
to the southwest, from the northwest to the southeast,
most of the current railway projects have stopped."
The Financial Times Deutschland says, “The CCP has lost control
of the issuance of debt and the interest rate on loans,
due to underground lending institutes which provide
more loans than banks.
Not only does the CCP lack the ability to save Europe,
it itself is struggling with its own financial problems and development.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Mingfei and Ge Lei
