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【世事關心】中期選舉:民主黨強勁勢頭減弱 眾議院仍有一搏

紐約時間: 2018-11-01 01:28 AM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年10月30日訊】【世事關心】(483)中期選舉民主黨強勁勢頭減弱 眾議院仍有一搏:中期選舉是對在位總統的公眾投票,那麼川普總統幹得如何呢?據《時代》雜誌2018年2月報導,前總統奧巴馬排名自2014年以來上升了十位,在奧巴馬就任總統後,自由派成為民主黨的主流,以民主黨眾院領導人佩洛西為首的民主黨議員,全力支持包括「健保改革」、「移民改革」等自由派議案,與共和黨背道而馳。
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當前,隨著美國經濟的持續上揚,失業率的下降,川普總統支持率已達46%,其在共和黨內部的支持率更高達90%,因此共和黨基本盤回應川普的號召,在中期選舉中積極投票給共和黨候選人絕對是毋庸置疑。加上倒戈的民主黨人,結局或許不難猜出。

中期選舉是對川普總統的公投。他履行自己的競選諾言了嗎?
The midterms are a referendum on President Trump. Has he delivered what he promised?

坎迪斯·歐文斯(非營利組織Turning Point USA 公關主任):「一開始大家對川普總統有些看法和顧慮,但現在人們漸漸刮目相看,因為他真的做到了。」
Candace Owens: “There was some valid concern and apprehension in the beginning, but that’s sort of shifted because he’s been effective, and he’s actually gotten the job done.”

民主黨沒能掀起大浪,為什麼呢?
What turned the blue wave into a blue puddle?

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「民主黨阻撓卡瓦諾進入最高法院,結果把自己傷得不輕。民主黨骯髒、卑劣、耍賴、邪惡,把大家都惹怒了。」
Shawn Steel: 「What hurt the Democrats, particularly, is the Kavanaugh hearings for the Supreme Court of the United States. Democrats got so nasty, foul, unfair, and vicious, it turned an awful lot of average people.」

民主黨會在加州得到足夠席位奪回眾議院多數嗎?
Will Democrats get enough seats in California to retake the House?

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「現在,我認為他們能拿到一個席位,另外三個還說不定。因此,他們不會從加州拿到足夠席位奪取眾議院多數。」
Shawn Steel: 「Today, I would say they will win one for sure, and three are undecided. So they’re not going to get enough from California to conquer the House.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗。中期選舉是對在位總統的公眾投票。那麼川普總統幹得如何呢?據《時代》雜誌2018年2月報導,根據歷史學家評選,「在『偉大總統』排行榜上川普排名墊底」,相比之下,前總統奧巴馬排名自2014年以來上升了十位。然而,在奧巴馬第一個任期中,他所在的民主黨在中期選舉中失去參議院63個席位。川普所在的共和黨此次選舉預期損失的參議院席位,估計是其一半或更少。主流媒體對川普的報道,92%都是負面的,然而美國民眾對於經濟的信心,是奧巴馬時代的一倍以上。2016年總統選舉,精英們已經看走了眼。2018年這次中期選舉,他們能說對嗎?美國民眾迫不及待再次於中期選舉發出自己的聲音。什麼是他們的所思所想?讓我們帶著這些問題,走進這一期的《世事關心》。
Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I’m Simone Gao. Midterms are a referendum on the sitting president. How is President Trump doing, then? In February 2018, Time Magazine had an article titled 「President Trump Ranks Last in 『Presidential Greatness』」, according to historians. President Obama, on the other hand, jumped up ten places in rank since 2014. However, during Obama’s first term, his party lost 63 seats in Congress during the midterms. The estimated loss for Trump’s party is around half of that or even less. The mainstream media’s coverage of Trump is 92% negative, but American citizens’ confidence in the economy more than doubled that of the Obama era. The elite got 2016 wrong. Will they get 2018 right this time? The American people are eager to speak again. What is their message? Let’s explore these questions in this episode of《Zooming In》.


第1部分:中期選舉——對川普的公投
Part 1:Midterms——A Trump Referendum

川普總統承諾美國選民,在他上任的頭100天內要清理政府腐敗,保護美國工人,修復憲政。
President Donald Trump’s Contract with the American Voter set out to clean up government corruption, protect American workers, and restore constitutional rule of law within his first 100 days.

他還承諾要限制非法移民,提高GDP增長率,重新談判貿易協定,推翻奧巴馬健保,減稅,改變外交政策。
He also promised to curb illegal immigration, raise GDP growth, renegotiate trade deals, repeal Obamacare, reduce taxes, and take a different approach to foreign policy.

川普總統兌現了很多承諾。
President Trump kept many of those promises.

在經濟方面,2018年第二季度GDP增長4.2%, 第三季度3.5%。 自大選以來增加了400萬個工作,失業率是將近50年來的最低水平。
On the economic front, in 2018, second quarter GDP growth rate peaked at 4.2%, the third quarter is at 3.5%. 4 million jobs have been created since the election. The jobless claim rate is at its lowest level in nearly five decades.

川普政府完成了,美國歷史上第三大的減稅行動。美國的企業稅曾經是世界最高之一,達到35%,稅改把企業稅降到了21%。
Narration: The Trump administration accomplished the third largest tax cut in the U.S. history. U.S. corporate tax rate was one of the highest in the world at 35%. The tax cut reduced corporate tax to 21%.

在貿易協定方面,在川普的領導下,美國從環太平洋夥伴協定(TPP)推出,用新的美加墨貿易協定取代了北美自由貿易協定,和歐盟達成了協定,向零關稅零補貼方向努力。同時,和中國的貿易戰中,向來自中國的500億美元的商品徵收25%的關稅,向另外2000億的商品加收10%。
Regarding trade deals, under Trump’s leadership, the U.S. withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, replaced the NAFTA with the new US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, and struck an agreement to work with the European Union towards a zero tariff and zero subsidy trade environment. At the same time, the on-going trade war with China imposed 25% tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and an additional 10% tariff on $200Bn of imports.

火熱的美國經濟,似乎在減少低收入人口對聯邦健保的依賴。
The booming U.S. economy appears to be reducing dependence on federal health insurance for the poor.

低收入醫療保險Medicaid的申請人數自從2007年來首次下降,在2018財政年度下降了0.6%。根據週四發布的Kaiser家庭基金會報告,明年的加入低收入醫療保險申請人數也不會增長很多。
Medicaid enrollment fell for the first time since 2007, declining by about 0.6 percent in fiscal year 2018. States don't expect to see much growth in enrollment next year, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation report released Thursday.

但是川普有沒有做的夠多,可以說服美國人在11月6日為共和黨投票?
But has he done enough to convince Americans to vote Republican on November 6th?

在10月25日華盛頓郵報舉辦的中期選舉預測研討會上,COOK政治報告的編輯Amy Walter說,美國人仍然是分化的。
At the Midterm Election Preview by The Washington Post on October 25th, Cook Political Report Editor Amy Walter said Americans remain divided.

Amy Walter(Cook Political Report主編):「我認為從現實的角度出發,我們是在兩個不同的美國舉行選舉。一個是支持川普的美國,這裡的許多州是參議院選舉競爭激烈的地方。如印第安納、密蘇里、北達科他和西弗吉尼亞州,這些州的選舉結果將決定由哪個黨控制參議院。那裡的現任參議員都是民主黨人,所以他們必須保住這些席位。如果民主黨想增加席位,甚至於僅僅是維持現狀,依我看民主黨不減少席位就已經很不錯了,他們都需要贏得田納西和德州的選舉,川普在這兩個州很受歡迎。這是參議院的選舉格局,對川普非常有利。川普不受歡迎的地方,是美國的郊區,尤其是受過大學教育的白人女性不支持川普,那些地方就是眾議院選舉的關鍵地區,決定眾議院控制權的選區,比如芝加哥郊區、丹佛郊區、達拉斯郊區、北弗吉尼亞什麼的。所以我們越來越感覺到,沒有哪個黨派能在今年的中期選舉取得壓倒性的勝利。像是足球賽一樣,每個人都得一個獎杯,彼此都有所獲。但是今天的美國社會仍然是兩極分化的、分裂的,就像2016年大選時一樣,擁護川普的人會說國家正在變好,我們喜歡總統,我們要支持他,他們在選舉中會有他們的收穫。另有很多人會說,我們不喜歡總統,我們不認同他的價值觀,那些人也會在選舉中有所得。所以會出現一個由民主黨控制的眾議院,一個由共和黨佔據更大多數的參議院,或者至少共和黨還能控制的參議院,我們會回到原來的格局。」
Amy Walter: 「I think the best way to think about where we are today is that we’re having elections in two different Americas. There’s an America where Trump’s really popular, and a lot of those states are states where the Senate battleground is taking place. Control of the Senate runs through places like Indiana and Missouri and North Dakota and West Virginia. All of those, of course, are held by Democrats, so they have to hold onto all of those. Even the places where they need to pick up some seats if they want to either gain, or in this case, I think the best case is for Republicans not to -- I mean, for Democrats not to lose seats, they have to win in places like Tennessee and Texas, also where the president’s popular. So that’s the Senate map, where the president’s popular. Where the president’s unpopular is in suburban America, especially among white, college educated women, and that’s where the House map -- that’s where battle for control of the House goes through a lot of those districts, suburban Chicago, suburban Denver, suburban Dallas, Northern Virginia. And so it feels more and more like we’re going to end up with an election night that everybody gets something they like. It’s like a soccer game. Everybody gets a trophy. Everybody wins. But the country remains as polarized and divided today as it was the day after the 2016 election, where there’s going to be a big chunk of Americans who say we like where the country’s going. We like the president. We’re going to support him. And they will have their victories, and a whole part of the country that says, we don’t like the president, we don’t like what he stands for, and those victories will take place in the House. So you have a House that’s blue and a Senate that gets maybe a little more red, or at least stays red, and we’re back kind of where we started.」

在2016年川普贏得選舉的時候,只有一部分共和黨人支持他。在中期選舉預測研討會上,非營利組織Turning Point USA的公關主任Candace Owens說,共和黨人現在一致支持川普。
The Republican Party was also divided over President Trump when he won in 2016. At the Midterm Election Preview, Turning Point USA Communications Director Candace Owens said Republicans are now supportive of the president.

坎迪斯·歐文斯(非營利組織Turning Point USA 公關主任):「我認為共和黨的團結是長期的,他們在戰鬥。明顯的,在一開始……」
Candace Owens:「 I actually think that the Republican Party is at long-last coming together, and they’re fighting. Obviously, in the beginning .」

提問:「團結在川普周圍?」
Moderator: Coming together around Trump?

坎迪斯·歐文斯(非營利組織Turning Point USA 公關主任):「是的,是這樣。他們團結在川普周圍。一開始有很多顧慮。他是這個國家從來沒有見過的總統。我這麼說是因為,人們一開始有一些顧慮和擔心,這是可以理解的。但是現在不同了,因為川普的施政見了成效,他真的能把事情做成。現在我們是討論行事風格上的不同,你會聽見人們說,他要是不用推特就好了。我總是反對說,他就是靠發推特才進的白宮。他掌握了一種完全不同的溝通方法,他真的是一個靠社交媒體的總統。他繞過媒體,直接和他社交媒體上的支持者溝通,所以我是實實在在的看見人們擁護他。我尤其印象深刻的,是在卡瓦諾大法官的聽證過程中。一般說來,一旦有人做出指控,我認為別的總統就會說,好吧,我們放棄這個提名人,去找別人了。川普則逆流而上, 川普支持卡瓦諾。然後我們見到像Lindsey Graham這樣的人,通常不支持川普,他在聽證會上說:『天,你們想要權力,我希望你們永遠得不到。』 這裡我們看到好像是,他們終於明白了這裡邊的利害關係。.不好意思今天我們有各個派別的觀眾,但是我認為左派, 我說的左派不是自由派,我們家很多人都是自由派,左派用極端骯髒的手段爭鬥,他們要不擇手段地阻擋總統。 我認為共和黨正在明白這點,共和黨支持總統。」
Candace Owens:「 Yes, for sure. They’re coming together around Trump. I think in the beginning there was a lot of apprehension. He’s a president that we’ve -- the sort of president we’ve never seen before in this country. I think that because of that there was some valid concern and apprehension in the beginning, but that’s sort of shifted because he’s been effective and he’s actually gotten the job done. And now we’re talking about differences stylistically. You’ll hear amongst people, oh, I wish he didn’t tweet. And I always counter that with, tweeting is why he’s in the White House. He understood how to play an entirely different game. He really is the social media president. And he sort of went around the press to get it out, the story, directly to the people who were following him. So I am actually seeing people rally him. And I specifically saw this ,and I’m so impressed with the Brett Kavanaugh hearing. Typically, as soon as they come up with an allegation, I think any other president would have said, okay, we’re dismissing this nominee and we’re going to have somebody else. And he fought, and he stood by them. And then we saw people like Lindsey Graham, who was not traditionally behind this president, and he said, 『Boy, you guys want power, and I hope you never get it.』 And we saw something here where it seems like they’re finally understanding what the stakes are and really, forgive me, obviously we have a diverse crowd here, but I think the left, and I separate the left from liberals. I have a family full of liberals. The left is fighting with extremely dirty tactics, and they want to obstruct this presidency at any regard. And I think the Republican Party is waking up to that. And I think that they are standing behind this president and that is something that makes me really happy to see. 」


下一節: 炸彈事件、非法移民大軍和主流媒體,它們會怎樣影響中期選舉?
Coming up: Pipe bombs, caravans and the mainstream media: How will they impact the midterms?


第2部分:民主黨強勁勢頭減弱
Part 2: The Blue Wave Dwindles

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):換個角度看問題, 我和加州的共和黨全國委員會委員Shawn Steel先生聊了一下。
For another perspective, I spoke with Shawn Steel, Republican National Committeeman from California.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「請您談談對中期選舉形勢的總體評估? 您覺得民主黨拿下眾議院的可能性有多大? 參議院呢?」
「 Can you tell me your overall assessment of the race right now? How likely do you think the Democrats will take the House? And what about the Senate?」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「先說好消息, 美國參議院將會迎來大驚喜,會看到一些過氣的民主黨騙子丟掉他們的席位。而共和黨預計會丟失一個席位,但是會奪得五席,所以將淨增四席, 所以我們會從五十一席增至五十五席,這是一個很大很大的數, 參議院將變好。今年夏天我們遇到一些困難,但是卡瓦諾法官在聽證過程中的遭遇,民主黨威脅要彈劾川普。 還有強勁的經濟是三個在美中地區幫助共和黨的因素,尤其是在中西部,這是好消息。眾議院就比較麻煩一些,美國有435個眾議院席位,這些席位全部要改選,主流媒體向來對川普恨得無以復加,他們從來沒有想要川普贏,他們從來沒有想到川普會贏。現在川普是總統而且幹得很好, 主流媒體就失去理智了. 比方說, 今天《紐約時報》發表了一篇文章, 臆想著川普被行刺,在這個充斥暴力和炸彈,或者虛假炸彈的時代,《 紐約時報》再也不是一家新聞媒體了,它是一個宣揚暴力的機構,這意味著很多人被迷惑了。民主黨需要淨得二十三席才能控制眾議院,我要是不得不打賭的話, 他們有可能會得手,有可能會成功。但是至多是勉強過半,我看見的每一個有競爭的席位,所有對共和黨來說比較懸的席位,都只有正負百分之三的差距。所以共和黨會以微差落敗,或是出現什麼意外事件改變選舉的結果。我坦率的講,共和黨保住眾議院多數的機率大概是百分之四十。但是民主黨, 如果他們贏了,也不會贏很多,所以他們不會得到很多權力。 」
Shawn Steel: 「Well, let’s start off with the good news. The U.S. Senate is going to have some big surprises with old-line, phony Democrats losing their seats. And we’re expecting maybe a loss of one seat but a pickup of five. So that’s a net gain of four. So we’re going to go from 51 senators to 55. That’s a big, big number, and much better people. We had troubles through the summer, but the Kavanaugh hearings, to talk about impeachment, and the roaring economy are the big three factors that’s helping us in middle America, particularly in the middle west. So that’s good news. The House is more problematic. We have 435 House seats in America. They’re all up for election. And there’s been a tremendous amount of hatred from mainstream media against Trump. They never wanted Trump to win. They never expected Trump would win. And now that he’s president and been extremely effective, they’re just losing their minds. For example, today the New York Times – today the New York Times published an article fantasizing about assassinating President Trump. With this age of violence and bombs or fake bombs, civility, the New York Times is no longer a journalistic publication. It is a violent propaganda piece. It’s no different than the communist party Chinese publication in China. I mean, it’s really ruthless and very destructive. That means a lot of people are confused. The Democrats have to win 23 seats to control the House. If I had to bet, they might control it, they might get it, but it’s only going to be by less than 10 votes. Every seat that I see that’s up for contest, all the ones that are at risk for Republicans, it’s plus or minus three points. So it’s going to be just a feather toss or something very strange could change the elections. Republicans probably have a 40 percent chance – and I’m being candid – of winning the House. But the Democrats, if they win, it’s not going to win it by very much. And so it won’t give them so much power. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「僅在幾週前,主流媒體曾報導民主黨將取得壓倒性勝利,他們預測民主黨不僅可能贏得眾議院,還有可能贏得參議院,但是現在看來是不可能了。這是為什麼呢?」
「 Just a few weeks ago, the mainstream media reported that there seems to be a big blue wave coming, so they’re predicting the Democrats not only are possibly going to win the House, but possibly the Senate as well. But now that big blue wave seems to have gone away. What happened?」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「 你知道的,大部分的美國媒體、美國娛樂行業、大部分高科技社群都是堅定的左派,從根本上講是反中產階級、反普羅大眾的。因此他們希望新總統像過去一樣,在第一任期的第一次國會選舉中失利。在過去的一百年裡情形的確如此,但是今年將會不同。我們在參議院的力量會得到加強,在眾議院我們也有可能維持多數,所以,民主黨在中期選舉這件事上翻不起大浪。他們之所以受挫,主要是由於民主黨人在參議院的聽證會上,對卡瓦諾法官表現出了令人憎惡、不講道理、不公正和惡毒的一面。很多人因此而反對民主黨。更要緊的是,7000名洪都拉斯男青年正向美國邊境挺進,這是真真切切的,這是一種非常態的表現,它就像是野蠻的入侵。讓我們回顧一下中國的歷史,當北方蠻族進入中國的時候,不曾徵得中國人的許可,所以後來有了長城,但蠻族依然要來,他們被稱作胡虜。 這些數量眾多的青壯士兵,來中國是為了贏得榮耀、財富和女人。坦白地說,他們入侵了另一個文明,他們入侵了他國,現在我們開始目睹來自中美洲的入侵。一個新的群體正在洪都拉斯形成,所以說現在有兩組人馬正向美國逼近。這類入侵行為可能會持續幾十年,除非川普能將他們阻止在邊境。因此,這不是一個臨時性的問題,這是一個長久的難題。與此同時,有四百萬符合條件的合法移民想來美國。大部分是亞洲人,其中有很多的中國人,他們來不了,因為南邊的非法移民擠占了聯邦政府的資源。我們歡迎合法移民,我們每年需要至少一百萬移民,其中一半是亞洲移民,我們歡迎他們,我們需要他們,我們需要他們的精力、他們的才能和他們的智慧。 」
Shawn Steel: 「Remember, most of American media, most of American entertainment, most of the high-tech community is decidedly to the left, essential anti-middle class, anti-middle American. So their hope was, historically, a new president always loses power in the first Congress in the first midterm. That’s been true for almost 100 years. It’s going to be different. We’re going to pick up strength in the Senate. We have an even shot in the House. So the blue wave turned out to be a blue ripple, if at all. What hurt the Democrats, particularly, is the Kavanaugh hearings for the Supreme Court of the United States. Democrats got so nasty, foul, unfair, and vicious, it turned an awful lot of average people. The bigger story is the 7,000 young men that are marching to the American border from Honduras. This is existential. This is a different type of level. It’s like a barberic invasion that – well, let’s take some Chinese history. When the Mongols came to China, for thousands of years, they didn’t ask permission, yet you built a great wall. But they kept coming. And they’re called a hoard, H-O-A-R-D. There are a number of – huge numbers of young warriors that are looking for fame and fortune and women, frankly, and they invade another civilization. They invade another country. We are now beginning to witness that coming in from Central America, and there’s a new group already forming in Honduras now. So there’s now two groups on the way to the U.S. This will continue for decades unless Trump can stop them at the border. So this is not just a temporary problem. It is a permanent invasion issue, and at the same time, we have 4 million legal, qualified people that want to come to America. Most of them are Asian, many of them Chinese, and they can’t come because of the illegals from south of the border. We want legal immigrants. We need at least a million a year. Half of them are Asians. We want them. We need them. We need to have their energy, their talent, and their brains. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「主流媒體對川普總統的報導,百分之九十二屬於負面消息。這會如何影響他的公眾支持率?這又會對中期選舉產生何種影響?」
「 The mainstream media's coverage of President Trump is 92 percent negative. How has it affected his public approval polls? What impact will it have on the midterms?」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「這是一個很好的問題。負面的報導肯定對某些人產生影響,包括那些對新聞只是隨便聽聽,但卻不求甚解的人。再有就是那些沒有主見,一味隨大流的人。但是主流媒體掌控美國人思想的能力卻在日漸削弱。曾經有百分之九十的美國人僅通過三家主流媒體獲得資訊。現在媒體有幾百家,《大紀元》、《新唐人》是全新媒體的又一個例子,幾百萬觀眾通過他們獲得真實的新聞。新聞界正在發生一場革命,所以主流媒體的地位在下降,影響力在弱化。其次,多次民意調查的結果顯示,多數美國人不再相信主流媒體,他們認為主流媒體只是宣傳工具,他們的看法是正確的。另外,川普使用推特,也有數千家的保守派網站和博客在傳遞不同的訊息。多數我認識的人已不再依賴《紐約時報》的新聞和《ABC電視臺》。他們去《Drudge》、他們去《國家評論》、他們去《大紀元》、他們去《新唐人電視臺》、他們通過其它的平臺獲得真實的信息,這是當下正在發生的,所以主流媒體的影響力較之前小了很多。」
Shawn Steel: That’s a great question. And of course it’s affected his approval. People that don’t read the news just sort of hear or they think, oh, nobody likes Trump, so I guess I don’t like him. But the days of mainstream media controlling American thought diminishes literally every day. There used to be three networks where 90 percent of Americans watched and got their news. There are now hundreds. 《Epoch》, 《NTD》 is another example of whole new media that millions of people listen to to get honest news. We’re seeing a revolution when it comes to news, so the mainstream media is less relevant and less influential. Secondly, most Americans in multiple polls don’t trust mainstream media. Most Americans now believe it is propaganda. And they are correct. Thirdly, Trump uses the Twitter, there are thousands of conservative websites and blogs that are putting out a completely different story. Most people that I know do not depend on the New York Times for news or ABC TV. They go to 《Drudge》, they go to 《National Review》, they go to《 Epoch》, they go to《 NTD》. They go to other sources for honest information. And that’s what’s happening. So their power is much weaker than it used to be.


下一節, 加州眾議員席位爭奪戰
Coming up: The fight for California’s House seats.


第3部分:加州中期選舉
Part 3: Can Democrats Retake the House via California?

眾議院有435個席位,其中53個席位在加州。諺語:「加州引領全國」。非常適用於這次中期選舉,民主黨需要重新奪回的眾議院席位中的三分之一在加州,加州人如何投票將決定哪一黨控制眾議院。
The House of Representatives has 435 seats. 53 of those seats are in California. The old saying, 「So goes California, so goes the nation」 is relevant for this midterm election. One-third of the seats Democrats need to retake the House are in play in California. How Californians vote could decide which party controls the House.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao): 我訪問了加州共和黨全國委員會主席,Shawn Steel先生,請他講他對中期選舉的預期。
I asked California Republican National Committeeman Shawn Steel what he thinks will happen.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「民主黨需要在眾議院重新奪回的席位中的三分之一在加州。你認為民主黨會奪到加州的這些席位嗎? 」
「 One-third of the seats Democrats need to flip to regain the House are in California. Do you think Democrats will overtake those seats in California? 」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「我是加利福尼亞人,也是加州的共和黨委員。你說的對,他們必須贏得的席位中的三分之一在加州。他們必須贏得加州共和黨代表團的一半席位。目前共有14名共和黨席位,他們瞄準了其中的七個,但他們不會七場全贏。今天,我認為他們肯定能贏的只是其中的一席,另外三場競選的結果則難以預料。因此他們不會在加州獲得征服眾議院的決定性勝利。我們有一個優秀的、年輕的、反共產主義的金映玉,她正競逐一個我們認為把握不大的席位,她現在領先了。Dana Rohrabacher,我們曾為他擔心的新港灘國會議員,他以微勢領先。但彭博剛剛投入400萬, 一位超級億萬富翁,彭博昨晚剛剛投入400萬美元對抗一位國會議員。但新港灘相當保守,到目前為止,民主黨人僅在加州就花費了6千萬到7千萬美元來壓制共和黨人,那大約是每席位900萬,這可是大賭注,九百萬美元可以換來極大的權勢,但民主黨砸六千萬到七千萬美元競逐七個國會席位,他們想以這種超強勢一錘定音。我們現在並不孤單,我們有自己的『 隊伍』,我們接地氣,我們有自己的選民,我們到處都有競選指揮中心,這是一場經典的戰鬥,沒有人大幅領先。我認為在七個席位中,有四個是安全的,有三兩個處於危險之中,一個可能已無可挽回。所以這對南希來說是未達目的,她將不得不去其它州尋取權力。」
Shawn Steel: Excellent question. I am Californian. I am the committeeman for the Republican Party from California. And you’re correct. One-third of their possible seats are in California. They would have to win half the Republican delegation. There’s 14 Republicans. They’re targeting seven. They will not win seven. Today, I would say they will win one for sure, and three are undecided. So they’re not going to get enough from California to conquer the House. Chances are we have a good, young, anti-communist Young Kim, who’s running for a seat that we thought we were in trouble. She’s now ahead. Dana Rohrabacher, the Newport Beach congressman we were worried about, he’s slightly ahead, but Bloomberg just put 4 million – a super billionaire, Bloomberg just put $4 million against one congressman last night, Dana Rohrabacher. But Newport Beach is pretty conservative. So the Democrats are spending between 60 to 70 million dollars in California alone to beat up Republicans. That’s about 9 million apiece. This is big stakes. Nine million dollars can buy a lot of power, but when you have 60 to 70 million dollars going after seven congressman, that’s enormously powerful. Now, we’re not alone. We have our own armies, we’re on the ground. We have our own voters. We have headquarters everywhere. It’s a classic battle, and nobody’s ahead decidedly. I would say, of the seven seats, four are safe. Three, two are in danger. One may be lost. So that’s not going to do it for Nancy. She’s going to have to get power in other states.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「你會關注哪場選戰?」
「 What race will you be watching?」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「我將主要關注橙縣,我會同時關注全國各地的選情。我將懷著愉悅的心情觀看北達科他、田納西和亞利桑那的參議院席位的選戰。我對佛羅里達的進展非常興奮,對印第安納和密蘇里的選情也同樣非常興奮。好運氣可能會不期而至,比僅僅得到四個席位更好,我們可能會增加七個(參議院席位),這可是極具有歷史性的。我會為眾議院擔心,但我最了解加州橙縣,所以我要盯著Dana Rohrabacher和金映玉看。」
Shawn Steel:「 Well, I’m going to be focusing mostly in Orange County. I’m going to be looking at across the country. I’m going to be looking happily at North Dakota, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona for U.S. Senate seats. Very excited about Florida. Very excited about Indiana and Missouri. There’s some really good opportunities that might flow our way, much better than just picking up four seats. We may pick up seven. I mean, it could be quite historic. I’ll worry about the House, but I know Orange County, California, the best, so I’m going to be looking at Dana Rohrabacher and Young Kim. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「如果民主黨重新奪回眾議院,這將如何影響川普總統餘下的任期?」
「 If Democrats retake the House, how will that affect the rest of President Trump’s term?」

肖恩·斯蒂爾(共和黨全國委員會委員/加州):「如果民主黨在佩洛西的領導下重新得勢,就不會再有溫和的民主黨人。任何聲稱願意合作的(都是說謊), 我們在卡瓦諾聽證會上看清了這一點,在所有參議員中只有一位民主黨人投票支持卡瓦諾。所以他們步調一致,被極左勢力所捆綁,在國會是幹不成事了。但總統還是有很多權力的,還記得吧,奧巴馬在參眾兩院都被共和黨所把持的情況下還是做了很多的事情,他能玩兒得轉。川普在外交方面將做出偉大的貢獻,經濟將持續增長和擴展。除非他們掌控了國會,否則我們不會有新的法案通過。」
Shawn Steel:「 If the Democrats take over under Pelosi, there’s no such thing as a moderate Democrat. Anybody that says they’re willing to reach across the aisles – we saw that in the Kavanaugh hearings. Of all the Senators, only one Democrat voted for Kavanaugh. So they’re lockstep, tied down by the far left … Not much will happen in Congress, but the president will have a lot of power. Remember, Obama did pretty well with a Republican Congress in both houses. He did pretty well. And Trump is going to do great things in foreign policy. The economy’s going to continue to grow and expand. We are not going to get new laws passed,that’s only if they captured the house. 」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao): 2016年的總統大選結果對主流媒體和美國大部分地區來說都是一個難以預料的震驚,也許這次中期選舉會帶來再次震驚。您怎麼看?請別忘了投出自己的一票。感謝您觀看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗,我們下次再見。
The 2016 presidential election was a big surprise to mainstream media and much of the country. Maybe the midterms will have their own surprises. What do you think? Thanks for watching 《Zooming In》. I’m Simone Gao. See you next time.


End

====================================
Producer:Simone Gao
Writer:Simone Gao, Michelle Wan, Jess Beatty, Thomas Del Beccaro
Editors:Julian Kuo, Bonnie Yu, Melodie Von, York Du
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Cameraman:York Du, Wei Wu
Transcription: Jess Beatty
Translation:Greg Yang, Juan Li, Xiaofeng Zhang, Guiru Zhang
Special Effects:Harrison Sun
Assistant producer: Bin Tang, Merry Jiang

Feedback:ssgx@ntdtv.com

New Tang Dynasty Television
October 30, 2018
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鱼儿 2018-11-03
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