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【世事關心】美國稅改半年:成功還是失敗?

紐約時間: 2018-07-03 09:41 AM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年07月03日訊】 【世事關心】(472)美國稅改半年:成功還是失敗?
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半年前聯邦政府通過了稅改法案,據一位白宮經濟顧問稱,稅改正在取得預期的效果。
Six months into tax reform, a White House economic adviser says everything is exactly as expected.

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「目前為止,讓我感到非常吃驚的是現在出來的數據,與我們秋季用模型預測出來的數據竟然完全一致。」
Kevin Hassett: 「The thing that’s surprised me the most so far is how precisely the data have come in exactly as we expected with our models in the fall.」

隨著稅改法案的實施和貿易談判的進行,美國製造業正顯示出高度的信心。
The U.S. manufacturing sector is showing strong confidence in the wake of the tax bill and amidst trade talks.

艾瑞克·紐豪斯(全美製造商協會副總裁):「在接受問卷調查的製造商中,95%對經濟的未來持樂觀態度;77%計劃增加員工;86%計劃增加投資;72%計劃增加員工工資。」
Aric Newhouse:「95% optimism about the future of the economy, 77% plan to increase hiring, 86% plan to increase investment, 72% plan to increase wages. 」

但是,稅改法案會像白宮經濟顧問說的那樣,依賴GDP 3%的增長就能實現收支平衡嗎?對此,主流經濟學家心存疑慮。
But will the tax bill pay for itself by relying on a 3% GDP growth as the White House economic adviser suggests? Mainstream economists have doubts.

大衛·斯托克頓(彼得堡國際經濟研究所高級研究員):「上述意見可能過分誇大了稅改對促進經濟成長的作用。」
David Stockton: 「It’s an extremely optimistic view about what the tax cuts can do to economic growth.」

Yet, they have been wrong more than once.
然而,主流經濟學家們已經錯了不止一次了。

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「別忘了,去年秋天我們做預測的時候,還覺得今年的經濟增長率可能只有3%多一點,當時幾乎所有的主流經濟學家都不以為然。但是他們現在的預測反而都高於我們從前的預測。」
Kevin Hassett: 「Don’t forget that back when we wrote our growth forecast last fall for this year, just a little bit north of 3 percent, that everybody was like, oh, these guys are crazy. And I had economists that advised previous presidents, there was one quote that every time I went on CNN they would play the quote, I don’t have to say the person’s name, where they introduced me like this on CNN -- because they’re so collegial to this White House, you might have noticed -- that Kevin Hassett is either stupid or a liar, or both. But that was over the 3 percent forecast. And now we look and everybody’s forecast is above ours.」

稅改法實施半年後,您如何評價其實際效果?
Six months after tax law, what are the facts, and how will they affect you?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):大家好,歡迎觀看《世事關心》節目,我是Simone Gao蕭茗。去年12月,川普總統簽署大規模稅改法案,正式開始生效。法案刪除了平價醫保法案中的強制個人購買醫保的要求,修訂了稅法中某些關於企業和個人稅的一些規定。從總統簽署稅改法案到今天,已過去半年了。訖今為止,美國人民和企業是如何評價它的?它是否最終能賺回成本?它要賺回成本是否倚仗接下去不會發生經濟蕭條?美國在川普任期內有可能發生經濟蕭條嗎?今天我們就來探討這些問題,同時關注一下美中貿易戰的最新情況。
Hello, Welcome to 《Zooming In》, I’m Simone Gao. In December of last year, President Trump signed the massive tax bill into law. The bill removed the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate, and it overhauled the tax code for businesses and individuals. It’s been six months since the president signed the bill. What are American people and business saying about it? Does its ability to pay for itself depend on whether or not there will be a recession down the road? And will there be a recession during Trump’s presidency? We’ll take a look at these questions as well as the most recent update on the U.S.-China trade war.

2018年6月蓋洛普最新民意調查結果顯示,對美國目前發展趨勢的滿意度達到近12年來的新高。這次民意調查的結果來得正是時候,顯示出了川普政府稅改法案實施半年來的成果。根據稅改法案主要起草人、眾議院議長保羅·瑞安的說法,蓋洛普民意調查表明稅改法案獲得了成功。數以百萬計的的美國人獲得了獎金、加薪。創造了一百萬個工作崗位;48個州的公用事業費率下調;失業率創歷史最低紀錄。
The newest Gallup polls from June 2018 show that satisfaction with the direction the U.S. is heading has reached a 12-year high. The findings are timely and show the effects of the Trump administration’s 6-month-old tax law. According to Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, who was a main author of the bill, the polls show that the tax bill is a success. Millions of Americans have received bonuses and wage increases, one million jobs were created, utility rates were lowered in 48 states, and unemployment is at record lows.

凱文·哈賽特是美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席。6月26日,他在接受《華盛頓郵報》採訪時表示,今年的經濟數據完全符合他們去年秋季的預測,這讓他很吃驚。
At a June 26th Washington Post event on tax reform, Kevin Hassett, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the White House expressed surprise that the data is perfectly in line with what their fall models projected.

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「現在讓我感到驚訝的是,現在的經濟數據完全符合我們去年秋季的預測。我們原先預估結構性投資會增長14%,我個人預估在稅改之後會增加到14.2%。我們當時所用的經濟預測模型顯示會立刻出現增長。第一季度的GDP數據顯示,結構性投資增長了14.3%。我們預估設備投資將增加9%,實際應該增加了8%;無形資產投資預估將增長11%左右,實際也是如此;整體投資預估增加9%,實際增加了9.2%。我確信第二季度的增長幅度還將大大提升,這一事實令人驚訝,但真正出乎我意料的是,這些經濟預測模型很有效,不僅主要指標,整體預測結果都很準確。」
Kevin Hassett: 「The thing that’s surprised me the most so far is how precisely the data have come in exactly as we expected with our models in the fall. And our estimate of what would happen to structures was that it would go up 14, I think 14.2 percent because of the tax bill, and it should jump immediately in the models that we use. And in the first quarter GDP, it went up 14.3 percent. And we thought that equipment would go up about 9 percent, and I think it went up 8-something percent. We thought intangibles investment would go up around 11 percent; it went up 11 percent. We said 9 percent for overall investment, and it was like 9.2. And so the biggest surprise, and I’m sure that the second quarter, it looks like, is going to be way above those numbers, but the real surprise for me was that the models worked, and they worked not only in the top line, but in the sort of cross section too. 」

稅改給美國人許下的一個大大的願望是:平均每個美國人的收入將增加4000美元。凱文·哈賽特說美國正朝著實現這一目標邁進,而且一部分人已經達成了這個目標。
Narration: A big promise of the tax reform is it would increase wages by $4000 per average American. Kevin Hassett said America is either on the right track to achieve that, with some having already achieved it.

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「我們認為在三到五年內,美國的平均工資將增加4,000美元,這一數據是基於我們模型所預測的資本積累數據。大家想想,我剛才提到第一季度的資本性支出數字恰好符合預期,因此平均工資增加4,000美元是完全可以實現的。但讓我感到驚訝的是,很多公司,面對緊張的就業市場和更高的勞動生產率,已經提高了員工的工資。」
Kevin Hassett : 「we thought in over three to five years, that the average wage in the U.S. would go up by $4,000 and that was based on basically the capital accumulation happening that our models predicted. And so think about it, I just mentioned that the first quarter capital spending number came in precisely on expectation and so we are on the path to get that extra money. But the thing that surprised me is how many firms, looking ahead to a tight job market and a lot of higher productivity have increased wages already.」

記者:「這種增長是通過增加獎金還是工資?」
Paletta: 「Through bonuses or through wages?」

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「都有增長,以及退休福利的增長,我們在密切關注這些變化,有將近700萬工人漲了工資,有超過600萬工人的平均工資增加了1200美元。但是,在我們的調查數據庫中,一些人的工資已經增加了4,000美元。4000美元這一數字是怎麼來的?沃爾瑪每小時最低工資上調2美元,如果全職工人每小時工資增加2美元,那麼總和就非常接近這個數字。增加的收入已經高於3000美元,我們可以說接近4,000了。如果連在沃爾瑪工作的收入最低的人,今年都已經獲得了4,000美元的加薪,那麼4,000美元的增長看起來就不算什麼了,對吧?但是,當人們早先辯論稅改問題的時候,當我們拿出4,000美元這一預測數字的時候,所有的人都感到匪夷所思,不是嗎?但事實上,沃爾瑪收入最低的人幾乎已經得到這麼多錢。這還僅僅是第一年,以前我們以為需要三到五年的時間,但事實表明稅改效果顯著。」
Kevin Hassett : 「Well, bonuses and wages both. And also, increased 401(k) contributions but we keep track of this. We’re closing in on seven million. We’re north of six million workers have received an average increase of 1,200 bucks. But some of those people in the database have already gotten the 4,000 and to put the 4,000 in perspective, Walmart increased their minimum wage by $2 an hour and if a full-time worker gets a higher wage by $2 an hour, then that’s pretty close. It’s getting up into the high 3000’s, so let’s just say it’s getting closer to 4,000. And if the lowest paid guy at Walmart is already this year getting something that’s within hailing frequencies of the $4,000 then it makes the $4,000 number seem pretty reasonable, right? But during the tax debate when our analysis, which again was just math and data was saying the $4,000 number, then you would have thought that it was a crime against humanity to assert such a thing. But the fact that the lowest paid guy at Walmart is almost getting that. In the first year, when we said it’d be three to five years, it suggests the thing is working.」

凱文·哈賽特受到來自美國進步中心的賽斯·漢隆的挑戰。漢隆稱,數據顯示從去年5月到今天,工資收入一點也沒有增長。這種不同是因為數據計算出現了差異,哈賽特博士採用的是名義工資增長與雇工成本指數,而漢隆將數字換算成了實際工資增長。
Kevin Hassett was challenged on this front by Seth Hanlon from the Center for American Progress who argued that the data says wage growth has not gone up at all from last May to this May. The discrepancy in numbers is due to a difference in data calculations. Dr. Hassett used nominal wage growth with the Employment Cost Index, whereas Hanlon adjusted numbers for a real wage growth calculation.

經濟學家們採用不同的研究模型與方法,但來自美國製造業的反映卻是一致的,而且非常明確。
Unlike economists who differ in models and methodology application, the reaction from the U.S. manufacturing sector is unified and simple.

Aric Newhouse(全美製造商協會副總裁):「2016年的前五個月,製造業失去了16,000個就業崗位。2017年同期,製造業卻創造了約63,000個就業崗位。 今年,我們已經創造了115,000個就業崗位。當然,你還是可以說這只純粹是偶然。但我認為,經濟的這種表現與國會通過稅改直接相關。」
Aric Newhouse:「So 2016, the first five months of the year, the manufacturing sector lost 16,000 jobs. 2017, same period, first five months, the manufacturing sector created around 63,000 jobs. This year, we’ve already created 115,000 jobs. So, now, again, you could make the argument that that is just accidental. I would make the argument that there is a direct relationship between what we’re seeing in the economy and what Congress and policymakers did on the tax code.」

全美製造商協會副總裁艾瑞克·紐豪斯稱,製造業者樂觀程度問卷調查結果顯示,製造商對經濟的信心很高。
Narration: According to Aric Newhouse, a 20-year-old survey about optimism level among manufacturers also indicates high confidence in economy.

Aric Newhouse(全美製造商協會副總裁):「該問卷調查已有20年的歷史。95%的人對經濟的未來持樂觀態度, 我們問了20年這個問題, 95%是我們見過的最高數字。77%的企業計劃擴招,86%計劃增加投資,72%計劃增加工資。中小型企業 - 讓我更謹慎地回答這個問題。我想起了位於俄亥俄州弗農山的一家公司,Ariel公司。就在哥倫布市東北約45,60英里的地方。 這家公司在那裡有450名員工,全國範圍有2,000名員工。 Ariel公司今年將工資提高了13%,這是很顯著的增長,與稅改直接相關。」
Aric Newhouse :「optimism about the future of the economy, 95%. We’ve been asking that question for 20 years. This is the highest number we’ve ever seen.
Seventy-seven percent plan to increase hiring, 86% plan to increase investment, and 72% plan on increasing wages. So, again, that kind of—the small, medium size—let me kind of answer the question more discreetly. I think about a company in Mount Vernon, Ohio, about 45, 60 miles northeast of Columbus. There’s 450 employees there, 2,000 employees across the country. Ariel corporation raised its wages by 13% this year. That’s pretty powerful. And it’s directly related to the tax bill.」

然而,一個代表通訊業工人的組織看到的卻是另一番景象。
But an organization representing workers in the Communications industry sees a different picture.

Chris Shelton(美國通信工人協會主席):「大家知道,一提到稅收法案,當人們談論它時,雇主們會站出來說他們將給工人增加4000美元的工資,但還沒有實現,也不知道將來是否能實現。但我們確實看到雇主將增加就業機會。就業機會是增加了,例如,我們的雇主之一AT&T,員工大約有110,000人,他們表示每10億美元的減稅,就會增加7,000個工作崗位。好吧,已經給他們減稅30億美元了,但卻裁員6,000人。」
Chris Shelton:「 president of the Communication Workers of America. You know, when the tax bill—when they were talking about it, employers were coming out saying that they were going to give a $4,000 wage increase. That just has not happened. It’s not on the horizon to happen. We’ve seen—and they were going to increase jobs. We’ve seen jobs. For instance, one of our employers, AT&T, where we have about 110,000 people, said they were going to increase jobs by 7,000 jobs for every billion dollars in tax cut. Well, they got a $3 billion tax cut and we’ve seen 6,000 layoffs since the tax cut happened.」

接下來:稅改是否會減少聯邦政府的財政收入?稅改會如何影響美國未來的經濟發展?
Coming up: Will the tax law pay for itself? And what’s in store for the U.S. economy?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):美國債務和支出正在迅速增加。減稅會進一步削減政府的財政收入,但它也會激發經濟潛能。稅務改革能賺回成本並盈利嗎?凱文·哈賽特是這麼計算的。
U.S. debt and spending is growing rapidly. Cutting taxes will further reduce government revenue. But it will also unlock more economic potential. Will the tax law pay for itself and make a profit? Here’s Kevin Hassett’s calculation.

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「我想,如果經濟每年多增長一個百分點,別忘了,當川普總統上任時,他的承諾是經濟每年增長3%。幾乎可以肯定的是,目前為止,我們的內部經濟分析模型表明,第二季度的GDP數據將顯示今年經濟增長3%的可能性達80%。如果經濟年增長率是3%,而不是像前十年的2%,這是整整多出一個百分點。這不僅僅是減稅的成果。那是放鬆管制以及其它措施帶來的影響。但是,每年多增長一個百分點,到第十年,GDP就會比原預估值高10%,第十年的GDP原來預估會達到大約28萬億美元,因此調整過後的GDP就將比那多,大約2.8萬億美元。或者讓我這樣說:目前計算的未來十年財政赤字比減稅前多1萬億美元,由於聯邦政府增加了支出,以及國會預算辦公室不願意承認減稅會刺激經濟。但是,減稅後,未來十年的GDP將增加四萬億美元。我個人認為是要達到六萬億美元。所有人都會願意用增加一萬億美元的財政赤字,來換取GDP增長六萬億美元。如果你的預測模型顯示這樣做劃不來,那肯定是你的預測模型哪裡出問題了。」
Kevin Hassett : 「Again, I think that if we grow an extra percent a year, remember, when we took office, the president promised 3% growth. I think we’re almost certainly, I think right now, our internal models say it’s about 80% that we’ll have a full year of 3% once we get second-quarter GDP in. That if you grow 3% instead of say, the 2% that we inherited for 10 years, that’s an extra percent a year. That’s not just tax. That’s deregulation and whatever else we do. But a percent a year, that gets 10% higher GDP in the 10th year and I guess GDP in the 10th year right now is estimated to be about 28 trillion, so you get about $2.8 trillion more GDP. Or let me put it this way: so right now, the deficit over 10 is about a trillion dollars higher because of the expansion of spending and because of the CBO’s unwillingness to have much growth effect from the tax bill. But GDP over the next 10 years is what, more than four times higher. I think it’s about six times higher than that. So would you trade a trillion dollar increase in the deficit for 6 trillion more GDP? If you have a model that says you shouldn’t do that, then you probably should check your model.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):Hassett博士的預測表明,如果未來幾年經濟能快速增長的話,實施減稅法案就不會減少聯邦政府的財政收入,我也採訪了彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員David Stockton。他說減稅法案可能會減少財政收入。
Dr. Hassett’s projection that the tax bill will pay for itself assumes that there will be several years of high growth in the future. I asked David Stockton, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He says it’s unlikely the tax bill will be able to pay for itself.

David Stockton(彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員):「我認為這不太可能。減稅到底對經濟增長會有什麼影響,你剛提到的是一個非常樂觀的觀點。我們研究過的許多經濟模型表明,減稅後的未來10年,GDP只會比減稅前多增長一個百分點,也就是說每年只多增長0.1%。我認為這可能是一個更合理的看法。要實現3%的增長,就需要通過減稅來實現勞動生產率的巨大增長,而這種增長率似乎尚未出現。即使我們的投資支出有所增加,這倒是很有可能的,但投資的增加不可能大幅度的提升經濟增長率。我認為減稅對經濟的刺激作用,只有Kevin Hassett預計的十分之一。事實上,在這種情況下,減稅就會減少聯邦政府的財政收入。昨天,美國國會預算辦公室發布了一份關於長期預算前景的報告,他們也看到美國債務水平相對於GDP的大幅增加。它將在未來十年內接近100%,並可能在未來三十年內達到150%,除非未​​來政府採取有力措施來控制這些赤字。」
「 So I think that’s highly unlikely. It’s an extremely optimistic view about what the tax cuts can do to economic growth. A lot of economic models that we’ve surveyed suggest that you might get a percentage point on the level of GDP over the next 10 years, that’s just a tenth of a percent of additional growth per year. I think that’s probably a more reasonable mainstream. Getting up to 3 percent growth would require the tax cuts to produce an enormous increase in the growth rate of productivity that just doesn’t seem to be in the cards yet. And even if we got a step up in investment spending, which I do think is likely, it’s not likely to produce such an overwhelming increase in the growth rate of the economy. So I’d be thinking, basically, a tenth of what Kevin Hassett suggests for additional growth. And in that case, in fact, the tax cuts will not pay for themselves. And yesterday the Congressional Budget Office here in the United States issued a report on the longer term budget outlook, and they, too, see a very substantial increase in the level of U.S. debt relative to the GDP. It will rise close to a 100 percent by the end of the next decade and maybe to 150 percent over the next 30 years unless policies are changed in the future to reign in those deficits.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):幾十年來美國的GDP增長率都沒有達到3%,這是肯定的。但這是川普上任之前。主流媒體和經濟學家是否會對經濟做出另一個的錯誤預測呢,就像他們曾對大選做出的錯誤預測一樣?讓我們聽聽Kevin Hassett先生的看法。
The U.S. hasn’t had a 3% GDP growth for decades, that’s true. But that was before President Trump took office. Will economists and the mainstream media make another economic forecast mistake just like they did with the election? Kevin Hassett has this to say.

凱文·哈賽特(美國白宮經濟顧問委員會主席):「別忘了,當我們去年秋天預測今年經濟增速時,只預計會略高於3%。當時沒人相信。一個曾給前任總統做過顧問的經濟學家有一句話,每次我去CNN,他們都會播這句話。 我不想說這個人的名字,他們在CNN上這樣介紹我,因為他們對白宮講道理,你可能已經注意到了,『Kevin Hassett要麽是傻子,要麽是騙子,要麽兩者兼而有之。』但如今的經濟增長超過了3%的預測,現在看起來其他人的預測都高於我們的預測。」
Kevin Hassett : 「Don’t forget that back when we wrote our growth forecast last fall for this year of just a little bit north of 3%, that everybody was like, “Oh, these guys are crazy,” and I had economists that advised previous presidents—there was one quote that every time I went on CNN, they would play the quote. I don’t have to say the person’s name, where they introduced me like this on CNN because they’re so collegial towards this White House, you might have noticed. 『That Kevin Hassett is either stupid or a liar or both.』 But that was over the 3% forecast and now we look and everybody’s forecast is above ours.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):Hassett先生預計,高增長能彌補低稅率帶來的財政收入的損失,但前提條件是:經濟不能出現衰退。David Stockton先生認為,在未來10年內出現經濟衰退的可能性很大,就是因為我們還沒有解決經濟衰退的問題,未來還會發生。另一方面,Hassett先生說,儘管從概率算經濟衰退的可能性可能超過50%,但經濟顧問委員會迄今沒有預測過將會發生經濟衰退。幾週前我們採訪的Fannie Mae首席經濟學家Douglas Duncan先生印證了他的觀點。
Mr. Hassett’s projection that the high growth rate that enables the tax bill to pay for itself depends on another important factor: there will be no recession. David Stockton believes there is a high probability that in the next 10 years there will be a recession, simply because we haven’t cured recessions and they are going to happen again. Hassett on the other hand claims although the odds of there being a recession unconditionally are probably north of 50-50, no CEA has predicted one so far. Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist who we interviewed a few weeks ago echoed his opinion.

Douglas Duncan(房利美首席經濟學家):「美國經濟正在健康增長。今年的增長率在2.5%到3%之間。 減稅可能會刺激今年甚或明年的經濟增長。此外,預算協議中的額外聯邦支出也會支持經濟增長。我們預計景氣會維持至少三年。在那之後,經濟增長會放緩,但不一定是直接的經濟衰退, 放緩是因為減稅和增支對經濟的刺激作用,會隨著時間的推移而逐漸消退。 該稅收法案的一部分實際上是臨時性的,其中的一些條款將會過期。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們預計經濟增長會有一些放緩。」
Dr. Duncan:「The U.S. economy is growing healthily. It’s somewhere between two and a half and three percent growth this year. The tax cut will probably offer some support for that over this year and perhaps next year. Also, the additional federal spending that was put in the budget agreement offers some support. Going beyond another year and a half and further on, we expect things to slow, not necessarily forecasting directly a recession, but some slowdown because there’s the initial impulse of the tax bill and the spending, which then wanes over time. Part of that tax bill is actually temporary, and some provisions of it expire down the road. So as those things happen, we would expect to get some slowdown in growth. 」

接下來,中美貿易戰是否會引發中國大陸經濟的全面崩潰?
Coming up, Is China approaching its Minsky moment amid a trade war with the U.S.?

6月18日,川普總統命令其首席談判代表、美國貿易代表羅伯特·萊特希澤,如果中國大陸拒絕回應美國縮減貿易逆差的請求,就列出一份徵稅清單,對價值2000億美元的中國大陸商品加徵10%的關稅。
On June 18, President Trump ordered his chief negotiator, U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, to identify a list of $200 billion in goods to levy a 10% tariff on if China refuses to narrow the trade deficit as requested.

如果把前幾輪發出的威脅都算在內的話,本屆美國政府瞄準的徵稅目標則是價值4500億美元的中國大陸商品。
Adding up all previous rounds of threats, this administration is aiming at $450 billion worth of goods that could be subject to tariffs.

如果這些措施一一實施的話,美國從中國大陸進口的價值5050億美元的、幾乎所有的商品都會被加徵關稅。
If these steps are taken, nearly all $505 billion dollars in products that the United States imports from China would be under tariffs.

中國大陸發誓要以牙還牙,打擊報復。6月25日,習近平在會見一個美國企業家代表團時稱中國大陸將反擊,採取的措施除增加關稅外,還包括拖延許可證發放,停止並購交易,甚或發起一場10億消費者抵制美貨的運動。
China retaliated and vowed to fight back. Xi Jinping told a group of U.S. CEOs on June 25th that China would strike back by delaying licenses, holding up M&A deals, or potentially turning its one billion consumers against U.S. products on top of tariff increases.

貿易戰的擴大勢態並未就此止步。川普總統開始是運用其總統的權力,來限制中國大陸公司投資美國科技公司。後來,他決定走溫和路線,即通過與國會合作,來強化現有的對國外投資進行審核的程式。不過,長期以來,保護對美國安全與繁榮至關重要的技術,一直是川普貿易戰的核心目標。
The trade war escalation didn’t end there. President Trump explored the option to use his presidential power to restrict Chinese companies from investing in U.S. technology firms. He later decided to take a much milder measure by working with Congress to enhance the existing review process for foreign investments. However, protecting technology that’s vital for U.S. security and prosperity has long been the center of focus for President Trump’s trade war.

中國大陸在中美貿易戰中有多大的反擊力量?人們往往看重貿易總量,以及中共政府對外資和外企的控制能力。這還是不夠的。要了解中國大陸的反擊能力,就得分析大陸的經濟狀況。一位中國大陸的財經專家表示,就算忽略貿易戰的影響,大陸的經濟也已經崩潰了。在內部經濟體系分崩離棄的情況下,大陸在貿易戰中是毫無還手之力的。讓我們來聽聽專家的意見。
How much power does China have in retaliating against the U.S.? Much of the focus has been given to the total trade volume and the Chinese government’s power to limit U.S. investments and operations in China. That is not enough. To fully understand China’s retaliation power, we also need to understand its own economic condition. According to one Chinese finance scholar, trade war aside, China is reaching its Minsky moment; it is in no position to retaliate against external forces when its internal economic organs are already unstable. Let’s take a look.

賀江兵是一位中國學者,曾寫過兩本關於中國經濟的專著。他認為中國正面臨著明斯基時刻。這一名詞是為了紀念美國經濟學家海曼·明斯基而命名的,因為他預測出經濟泡沫崩潰的時間。
He Jiangbing is a Chinese scholar and author of two books on the Chinese economy. He believes that China is facing its Minsky moment. Minsky is named after American economist Hyman Minsky, who anticipated when financial bubbles would burst.

賀江兵指出,顯示泡沫不久將被刺破的因素有三個。根據2016年的數據,中國的總債務已達GDP的350%。債務水準只要超過200%就會引起人們極大的關注。此外,中國房地產市場的總值估計在40萬億至400萬億之間,伸縮性很大,但是即使以最保守的估計來看,其規模也是巨無霸級別。貨幣是第三個值得關注的領域,到今年3月份,中國貨幣供應量達到174萬億(人民幣),超過美國和歐洲貨幣供應量的總和。
He Jiangbing identified three factors that indicate the bubble will burst soon. Using 2016 data, China’s total debt is 350% of its GDP. Any level above 200% raises major concerns. Additionally, the Chinese real estate market’s total value is estimated to be between 40 trillion to 400 trillion dollars, a large range and yet a behemoth even if reality falls on the most conservative spectrum of this estimation. Currency is the third area of concern. By March of this year, Chinese money supply reached 174 trillion yuan (RMB), That’s larger than U.S. and European money supply combined.

問題的核心還是在房地產市場,這個市場套牢了巨額的社會財富,即使再增發貨幣,其它行業一時之間也不會得到太多流動資金。中國經濟的結構性問題是,實體經濟的投資回報遠小於房地產業的投資回報。2017年,對第二套住房或投資性住房首付比例的要求提高了60%-80%。這表明要馴服房地產市場這匹烈馬,遏制投機與過度融資,是何其艱難。本月初,金融界流傳著一份官方檔,題目是《警惕金融恐慌》。該文由國家金融與發展實驗室發佈(中國政府認可的實體單位) 。它關注的主要問題是,5月份貨幣供應持續增加,債務違約不斷增加,實體公司的流動資金日趨枯竭。該文之後被從網上撤下,至於被撤原因據稱原本僅供內部討論雲雲。不過,我們至少知道在中國市場上,官員們已經在擔心金融恐慌。除非房地產泡沫和結構性問題能夠得到解決,否則,中國是否願意打一場貿易戰,是否有能力打一場貿易戰,都是很令人懷疑的一件事。
Narration: The heart of the issue is still on housing. It is a segment within the Chinese market that ties up a large amount of wealth. Even with the money supply increasing, much of the liquidity isn’t readily available for other segments in the economy. The Chinese economy’s structural issue is that industries cannot compete with real estate on investment return. In 2017, requirements on down payments for a second home or investment property increased 60%-80%. This shows how difficult it is to tame the market and to curb speculation and excess leverage. Earlier this month, the finance community circulated an official document entitled, “Be Warned about Financial Panic.” The article was published by the office of National Finance and Development, an entity that’s recognized by the Chinese government. It identified issues of money supply continuing to rise in May, signs of debt default rising and liquidity drying up for corporations as key concerns. The article was taken offline and the reason cited was that it was only meant for internal discussion purposes. At least we know, in the Chinese market, officials are concerned about a financial panic. Unless the housing bubble and structural issues can be resolved, China’s willingness and ability to truly fight a trade war is questionable.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):6月19日,在金正恩與川普總統舉行具有里程碑意義的峰會後一週,在中美貿易衝突不斷升級的情況下,他又回到北京與習近平會面。7月1日,新的衛星圖像顯示,朝鮮正在完成一個主要導彈製造廠的重大擴建。 北京可能對朝鮮此舉再次發揮了作用,但它是否能阻止川普對中國的懲罰性貿易措施的升級?請繼續關注。《世事關心》將對此為您帶來獨特的視角,以及您在其它任何地方都看不到的更多信息。 您可以搜索「Zoomingin with Simone Gao」來找到我們。感謝您的收看,我們下週見。
On June 19, a week after Kim Jong Un’s landmark summit with President Trump and amid an escalating trade conflict between China and the U.S., he returned to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping again. On July 1, new satellite imagery indicates that North Korea is completing a major expansion of a key missile-manufacturing plant. Beijing probably played a role in this, but will it deter President Trump from escalating punitive trade measures against China? Stay tuned. 《Zooming In》 will bring you unique perspectives on this and more that you won’t see from anywhere else. You can find us by simply searching for 「Zooming In with Simone Gao」. Thanks for watching and see you next week.



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Producer: Simone Gao
Writer: Simone Gao Jess Beatty Michelle Wan
Editors: Julian Kuo Frank Lin
Narrator: Rich Crankshaw
Translation: Greg Yang Frank Yue Bin Tang
Cameraman: Wei Wu
Special Effects: Harrison Sun
Assistant producer: Bin Tang Sherry Chang Merry Jiang


Feedback: ssgx@ntdtv.com
Host accessories are sponsored by Yun Boutique

《Zooming In》
July, 2018

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《世事關心》播出時間

美東: 週二: 21:30
週三:2:30
週六: 9:30

美西: 週二: 21:30
週六: 12:30
週日: 9:30

舊金山: 週二: 22:00
週六: 12:30
週日: 9:30
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