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【世事關心】一帶一路重塑世界格局?

紐約時間: 2018-04-24 01:21 AM 
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【新唐人北京時間2018年04月24日訊】【世事關心】(466)一帶一路重塑世界格局
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中國的一帶一路計劃獲得關注,習近平的真實目的是什麼?習近平雖然雄心勃勃,但一帶一路計劃卻遭遇了諸多挑戰,最重要的實施一帶一路會把權力中心從美國轉移到中國嗎?

中國的「一帶一路」計劃獲得關注。習近平的真實目標是什麼?
China』s Belt and Road Initiative is gaining attention.What are Xi Jinping』s true objectives?

章家敦(《每日野獸》專欄作家):「我看習近平想建立中國與世界的聯繫。」
「I think that Xi Jinping wants to tie the world to China.」

習近平雖然野心勃勃,但「一帶一路」計劃卻遭遇了諸多挑戰。
Despite Xi』s ambition,the BRI is meeting challenges.

陳破空先生(資深時政評論家):「原因是中共政府過於貪婪,有時他們要拿走九成的利潤。」
「The reason is because Chinese government is asking price too high–sometimes they are demanding 90%of the profit。」

最重要的,實施「一帶一路」計劃會把權力中心從美國轉移到中國嗎?
Most important of all,will it shift the power center from the US to China?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):歡迎大家收看《世事關心》節目。我是主持人蕭茗。去年在日本舉行的CPAC會議上,史蒂夫.班農說過:「種種跡象清楚的表明,中共正計劃以威權主義的方式接管全球經濟。對此,美國媒體和整個西方卻視而不見。」他表示:這種現象「對西方而言不僅僅是一個警告」。他當時談到的就是中共的「一帶一路計劃」。雖然習近平頗有野心,但如此大動干戈,究竟所為何事呢?在近代歷史上,沒有哪一個國家能夠同時稱雄陸地和海洋。難道中共就能例外嗎?難道中共真的能將世界權力的中心從美國移到中國嗎?在本期《世事關心》節目中,我們將探討這些問題。
Welcome to《Zooming In》.I am Simone Gao.At the Japanese CPAC meeting last year,Steve Bannon said,「The U.S.media and the West in general have willfully ignored clear signs China plans to take over the global economy on authoritarian terms,」and he said it』s「more than awarning to the West.」He was talking about China』s Belt and Road Initiative.Despite Xi Jinping』s ambition,what is really going on with this project?No nation in recent history has ever been successful in dominating both land and sea at the same time.Can China do it?And will it be able to shift the world power center from the US to China?In this episode of《Zooming In》,we will explore these questions and more.

2013年底,習近平宣布了「一帶一路」計劃。中共宣稱他們正在建設現代版絲綢之路。它就好像漢唐時期溝通中外交流的絲綢之路。「一帶一路」計劃目標是建立一條橫跨中國、中亞、東歐、和非洲的經濟帶,覆蓋64個國家。中共宣稱「一帶一路」並不是為瞭解決中國的產能過剩問題,而是通過建設基礎設施,來提振沿線欠發達國家經濟和投資的增長。
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in late 2013.China claims they』re establishing amodern day Silk Road.It is reminiscent of the historical Silk Road that brought tremendous economic success to the Han and Tang dynasties.The initiative aims to cover apath that stretches across China,Central and Eastern Europe,and Africa,targeting over 64 countries.China claims that BRI does not have an agenda to fix China』s own industry overcapacity issues,but rather to boost the economic and investment growth through building infrastructure projects in some of the less developed nations.

但是總部位於華盛頓的高級防務研究中心(C4ADS),在2018年4月18日的報告裏卻表達了不同的看法。報告稱中共正在「一帶一路」沿線地區大規模部署軍力,「似乎是要取得政治影響力,暗中擴展中共的軍事存在,和創造一個有利的戰略環境」。
But an April 18,2018,Washington-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies(C4ADS)report suggested something different.It claimed that the vast buildup of military forces in project locations「appear to generate political influence,stealthily expand China』s military presence,and create an advantageous strategic environment.」

2018年4月17日,德國媒體《Handelsblatt Global》報導說:「28個歐盟成員國駐京大使中的27位合寫了一份報告,尖銳批評中共的『一帶一路』計劃,譴責這個計劃旨在阻礙自由貿易,為中共公司謀求商業上的優勢。」
On April 17,2018,German press Handelsblatt Global reported that「Twenty-seven of the 28 national EU ambassadors to Beijing have compiled areport that sharply criticizes China』s「Silk Road」project,denouncing it as designed to hamper free trade and put Chinese companies at an advantage.」

儘管中共野心勃勃,「一帶一路」計劃明顯面臨著困難。2018年4月15日,《南華早報》報導說該計劃在非洲已經面臨財務問題。中國進出口銀行前行長李若谷說,參與的國家無力償還工程貸款,很多國家已經債務纏身。CNBC報導稱,中共國務院發展研究中心副主任王一鳴說,儘管很多項目是由大型金融機構出資,每年仍然有高達5000億美元的巨大資金缺口。
Despite China』s grand ambition,BRI is clearly facing difficulties.On April 15,2018,the South China Morning Post reported that the ambitious Chinese Belt and Road project is already running into financial trouble in Africa.Li Ruogu,the former president of Export-Import Bank of China,recently said that the countries involved simply don』t have the money to pay for it.Many countries already are deep in debt.CNBC reported that Wang Yiming,deputy head of the Development Research Centre of China's State Council,said that although many projects were funded by major financial institutions,there was still ahuge funding gap of up to US$500 billion ayear.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):儘管存在著金融風險,中國還是在大力推進此事。除經濟擴張外,難道它還想實現其它目標嗎?讓我們來聽聽《野獸日報》專欄作家章家敦先生、資深政論家陳破空先生的見解。
In spite of the financial risks,China pushes forward.Does it want to achieve goals besides economic expansion?Let』s hear my discussion with Daily Beast columnist Gordon Chang and Senior political commentator Chen Pokong.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):您認為習近平推行「一帶一路」計劃的目的是什麼?
「What do you think Xi Jinping really wants to achieve with the Belt and Road Initiative?」

章家敦(《野獸日報》專欄作家):「我認為習近平是想把世界與中共捆綁在一起。『一帶一路』計劃最初意在聯繫中國東海岸與歐洲市場。但這個概念後來擴展到包含『冰上絲綢之路』、『拉美絲綢之路』。所以,這個『一帶一路』的想法已經擴展成了全球性的戰略。」
GORDON CHANG:I think that Xi Jinping wants to tie the world to China.The Belt and Road Initiatives were essentially intended to connect the great cities of China』s east coast to the European markets.But the concept has really expanded,because now they talk about apolar silk road,a Latin America silk road.So,essentially,this whole idea of Belt and Road has gone global.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):如果這確實體現了習近平稱霸全球的野心的話,從戰略角度倒是可以理解的。因為從西太平洋到東歐這一帶,是中共可能擴張勢力範圍的地區。為什麽這麽講?因為整個環太平洋地區已經由美國主導了,再加上加拿大、日本和澳大利亞。對中國來說,要與這些國家硬碰硬的競爭,難度非常大。然而,從中亞延伸到東歐這一帶沿線情況就不同了。從海路上來講,從南太平洋到印度洋、再到紅海、再到地中海這一線,美國的影響力比較弱。但正如我剛才講的那樣,近代史上從來沒有哪一個國家能夠同時稱霸陸上和海上,更不用說此項目給中國帶來的經濟風險了。因此,即使實施「一帶一路」計劃從戰略的角度上可以理解,但是它是否行得通呢?如果中國尚未具備相關條件,又為何如此急不可耐呢?讓我們來聽聽陳破空先生的見解。
If this is really amanifestation of Xi Jinping』s global ambition,it makes strategic sense.China can most easily expand its sphere of influence from the western Pacific Ocean to Eastern Europe.Why?Because the whole Pacific rim is dominated by America,together with Canada,Japan and Australia.It will be very hard for China to compete with them head to head.However,it』s adifferent situation if this route extends from central Asia to eastern Europe.By sea,it』s from the south Pacific Ocean to the Indian ocean,and then from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea.American influence is relatively weak in this region.But as Isaid before,there has never been anation in recent history that could dominate both land and sea simultaneously.Let alone the financial risks this project poses to China.So,even if the Belt and Road Initiative makes strategic sense,is it viable?If China is not quite ready for it,why the rush?Let』s hear from Chen Pokong.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「為何中國如此急切的推進一項金融風險巨大的計劃呢?」
「Why is China in such arush to push forward an effort that has so many financial risks?」

陳破空先生(資深時政評論家):「習近平與中國政府確實認為,他們在經濟上具有推進『一帶一路』的緊迫性。因為他們急於為國內多餘的產能找出路,來避免一場由經濟衰退導致的全面危機。作為世界上頭號出口大國,中國現在面臨著國內經濟發展失衡與工業產能過剩,尤其是國內增長放緩與人口紅利消失。習近平與中國政府同時認為,『一帶一路』計劃可以幫助他們促進GDP的增長。他們認為這是維護中共統治的關鍵。我講過,中國政府一直把政權的安危放在第一位。」
「Xi Jinping and Chinese government do believe they have an economic urgency to rush to push forward the Belt and Road plan,because they are eager to
to shift China』s surplus production outward in order to transfer the burden of crisis and risk in China』s economic recession.As the world』s largest exporter,China now is facing domestic economic imbalances and industrial over-capacity,especially China』s domestic growth slows and the demographic dividend is disappearing.Xi Jinping and Chinese government also believe that Belt and Road Initiative can help them to promote China』s GDP growth,which,they think,is essential to the security of the regime.As Isaid before,the Chinese government always put their regime』s safety as the top issue.

接下來,「一帶一路」倡議到目前為止完成了什麼,西方國家的回應又是什麼?
Coming up,What has the Belt and Road Initiative accomplished so far,and what is the response from Western nations?

「一帶一路」計劃預計在21世紀中期完成。它現在還處於早期階段。按照西方觀點看,「一帶一路」計劃非常模糊。幾乎查不到在過去5年裏都建成了哪些項目。在去年的「一帶一路」論壇上,中共列舉了270個具體成果。這些成果幾乎都是簽訂的紙面協議。
The Belt and Road Initiative is set to be completed in the mid-21st century.It』s still in its early phases.From aWestern perspective,BRI plans are extremely vague.Finding alist of projects that have been completed in the past 5years is difficult.During last year』s Belt and Road Forum,China listed 270「concrete results.」They were mostly signed documents.

另一個來自中共政府的消息來源說,大約50家國企投資或參與了多達1700個項目。
Another Chinese governmental source said about 50 state-owned enterprises have invested or participated in almost 1,700 projects.

2018年1月,國際金融論壇和媒體Central Banking合作,對25個國家和地區的中央銀行進行了關於「一帶一路」的調查。下面這些是他們的一些調查成果:
In January,2018,the International Finance Forum,in collaboration with Central Banking–conducted aBelt and Road Survey of central banks from more than 25 countries and regions.And this is some of the things they found.

克里斯托弗.傑弗瑞(中央銀行出版物主編/Christopher Jeffery):「近半數的中央銀行視『一帶一路』計劃為幾十年一遇的機會。接近四分之三的受訪者表示,『一帶一路』計劃還未能增加來自中共的投資。但是就像我前面介紹的,有92%的受訪者預計在未來五年裏,『一帶一路』計劃會刺激國內的經濟發展。從地緣政治的角度來看,受『一帶一路』計劃影響最大的是歐盟(42%)和美國(33%)。」
「Just under half of central banks described the BRI as a『once-in-a-generation』initiative.Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed said the BRI has not yet resulted in greater investment from China than already expected.But as Isaid,92%of respondents expect the BRI to bolster domestic growth during the next five years.In terms of geopolitics,The BRI is expected to create the greatest friction with the EU(42%)and the US(33%).」

儘管與歐盟、與美國的關係緊張,「一帶一路」計劃還是在全球提升了共產中國的形象。該計劃在政治上、經濟上、和工業上聯繫著中共與大半個世界。它增加了中共在世界關鍵地區的影響力。
Despite the tension with the EU and the US,The Belt and Road Project has enhanced China』s global image.It』s developing political,economic,and industrial ties with two-thirds of the globe.It』s increased Chinese influence in akey region of the world.

這讓一些人擔憂。
This makes some worry.

這些地緣政治的變化讓四方安全對話復活。這個機制是在2007年由印度、日本、澳大利亞、和美國建立,以因應南海地區日益嚴重的中共威脅及其擴張性的海洋戰略。這四個國家對中共的威脅有不同的看法,但是在一些關鍵問題上有共識:自由通航、海上安全、和對國家法的尊重。尤其是美國,在撤出泛太平洋合作組織,也就是TPP之後。
These geopolitical shifts have revitalized the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.It was first established in 2007 between India,Japan,Australia,and the United States.China』s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and expanding maritime strategy spurred the realignment.The four countries have slightly different perceptions about China』s threat.But there are some key issues they all agree on:freedom of navigation,maritime security,and respect for international law.The United States,in particular,is trying to counteract Chinese influence since it withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP).

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):我們的嘉賓章家敦先生認為「一帶一路」在經濟上是不可行的。以下是我和章先生的討論。
Our guest Gordon Chang does not believe the Belt and Road Initiative is economically viable.Here is my discussion with him.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您怎麼看『一帶一路』計劃五年來的進展?有哪些成績?」
「What』s your comment on the first 5years of the Belt and Road Initiative?Has it been successful?」

章家敦(《每日野獸》專欄作家):「『一帶一路』計劃到目前為止,成功的引發了全球的關注和期待,但實事求是的講,它還沒有落實。本月,中國進出口銀行的前行長表示,許多中亞國家無法兌現承諾的資本投入。部分原因在於『一帶一路』計劃在經濟上不可行。80年代我在香港做律師,我的工作範圍不包括金融和基礎建設領域,但我所在的律師行有這樣的業務。一切值得投資的項目都能得到市場融資,現在也是如此。但『一帶一路』是要籌款建設那些得不到市場融資的項目,就是說,中國是想讓其它國家出錢完成他的外交目標。短期也許能行,但我覺得無法長久,現在人們雖然在憧憬未來,但如果仔細分析一下它面對的問題就會發現,這個計劃在經濟上無法盈利,在戰略上或許對中國重要,但對其它國家不重要,所以『一帶一路』這個構想不是長久之計。」
「Belt and Road Initiatives have been successful in the sense of creating alot of hype,a lot of excitement.But when we start to look at the reality of it,they have not really fulfilled promise.You know,we had this month aformer head of the Chinese Export-Import Bank say that alot of the Central Asian countries along the Belt and Road are not able to meet their financial commitments.And part of this is the Belt and Road is just not economically viable.When Iwas practicing law in Hong Kong in the 1980s,I didn』t do finance work or infrastructure work,but Iknow that my firm did.And everything that could be financed was financed by the market.And that』s continued to be true.What the Belt and Road attempts to do is to finance stuff that the market wouldn』t touch,which means that,essentially,China wants countries to pay to accomplish Chinese foreign policy goals.This might work in the short term,but Idon』t think it』s going to work long term.So what we have right now is alot of excitement,but really when you look at the problems facing Belt and Road,something which is not economically viable,which is maybe strategically important for China,but not important for other countries,I don』t think it』s going to work out in the long term.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「您覺得『一帶一路』計劃會不會對西方國家產生負面影響?」
「Do you think the West should worry about the Belt and Road Initiative?」

章家敦(《野獸日報》專欄作家):「中共有很多讓我們擔憂之處。『一帶一路』應該不是最緊要的。如果中共真要在中亞投資修鐵路也行,因為這會減少在軍隊建設方面的支出,比如造潛艇和護衛艦。所以,雖然我們應該關注『一帶一路』,但是中共做的很多別的事情更令我們擔心。」
「There are alot of things to worry about in China.Belt and Road is pretty low on the list of things we』ve got to be concerned about.If the Chinese want to spend money on arailroad in Central Asia,that』s fine,in asense,because every dollar they put there is one fewer dollar that they』re going to put into building asubmarine or frigate or supporting their military in some way.So,yes,we should be concerned,but nonetheless,there』s alot of other things China』s doing much more worrying.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):對於類似問題,我們還是來聽聽陳破空先生的意見。
Let』s hear what Chen Pokong has to say.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「對中國而言,『一帶一路』計劃的最大問題是什麽?」
「What is the biggest problem the BRI poses for China?」

陳破空先生(資深時政評論家):「中共面臨著巨大的投資風險。根據『一帶一路』計劃,中共現在大量投資的地區或國家,都是政治不穩定、安全得不到保障的國家。一旦發生衝突、社會動盪及突然發生變故,中共的投資將損失慘重。而這些損失都將成為中國人民的損失,但中國人民卻無權阻止中共拿人民的錢冒險。這對中國人民來說絕對是不公平的。事實上,『一帶一路』計劃現在正面臨著一系列的困難與失敗。不僅西方國家反應冷淡,即使一些與中共關係比較近的或友好的國家,也產生了越來越多的懷疑,對這一計劃表示拒絕。例如,巴基斯坦、尼泊爾與緬甸拒絕了由中國出資興建的一些水電站項目或大壩項目。由於遭到當地民眾的反對,原因是中國政府索價太高,有時竟要求獲得90%的利潤;有時貸款條件十分嚴格或苛刻;有時項目對環境有破壞作用。所以,這些項目遭到了這些國家的拒絕或取消。」
「There is abig risk for Chinese investment.According to the Belt and Road initiative,China is investing alot of money in the regions or countries where the politics is not stable and the security is weak.If conflicts,turmoils,and sudden changes occur,Chinese investment could turn into huge loss.And all the loss will be the Chinese people』s loss,but the Chinese people have no rights to prevent Chinese government from doing anything risky.This is absolutely unfair to the Chinese people.Actually,the Belt and Road plan is now facing anumber of obstacles and failures.Not only Western countries have cold-shoulder to this plan,but also the countries which are close to China or friendly to China also have more and more suspicion and rejection to this plan.For example,Pakistan,Nepal and Myanmar rejected some hydropower plants or dam projects funded by China because of local opposition.The reason is because Chinese government is asking price too high–sometimes they are demanding 90%of the profit,or because the Chinese loan has tough or strict condition,or because the projects can harm the environment.So these projects are rejected or canceled in these countries.」

接下來,「一帶一路」計劃究竟是誰受益:參與國?大陸人民?還是少數權貴?
Coming up:How does the Belt and Road Initiative benefit the countries it』s in,and does it help regular Chinese citizens,or only the elites?

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「一帶一路」計劃對中國和相關國家存在經濟風險,因為這些國家可能無法還貸。如果是這樣,中共是否會得不償失?可以拿什麼做補償?中共又能獲得什麽好處呢?對於普通中國百姓來說,又意味著什麽?現在我們就來看一看。
The Belt and Road Initiative is financially risky for China and the countries involved--that is,if they can』t pay back the debt.What are the benefits that outweigh these risks?How does China benefit if the countries can』t pay back their debt?And what』s in it for the average Chinese citizen?Let』s take alook.

參與「一帶一路」的國家能獲得一些明顯的好處。很多發展中國家沒有改善基礎設施所需的資金,中共的貸款能讓他們快速建設基礎設施。參與「一帶一路」還能幫助這些國家對抗地區強權,比如南亞的印度、中亞的俄國。
The countries taking part in China』s Belt and Road Initiative have some obvious benefits.Many of the developing countries don』t have the money to improve their infrastructure.China』s loans allow them to build up infrastructure quickly.It could also give leverage against traditional regional powers,such as India in South Asia,and Russia in Central Asia.

但是也有很多隱藏的不利因素。這些貸款可能是債務陷阱,中共會藉機侵害借款國的主權。一個例子就是斯里蘭卡的Hambantota港,斯里蘭卡無力償付欠中共的債務,於是它將這個港口出租給中共99年,還讓中共控股。
But there are also many hidden disadvantages.These loans could be debt traps,opening countries up to more Chinese influence.One example of this is Sri Lanka』s Hambantota port.The country couldn』t pay its debt back to China.Instead,it gave China a99-year lease on the port and acontrolling equity stake.

Jonathan Hillman是戰略和國際研究中心的學者,也是該中心「重回亞洲」項目的主任。他在2018年1月25日的一個聽證會上,解釋了斯里蘭卡的債務問題。
Jonathan Hillman is aFellow and Director of Reconnecting Asia Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.He explained Sri Lanka』s debt problem at ahearing on January 25,2018。

希爾曼先生(Jonathan Hillman):「分析一下斯里蘭卡參與』一帶一路』計劃的得失,能讓我們深刻瞭解中共推行這一計劃的真實目的。幾個星期以前,我到過位於該國南部的Hambantota港,這個港口是中共出資並由中企建設,但後來斯里蘭卡政府無力還貸,不得不出讓產權。中共以99年長期租借的形式,事實上控制了這一極具戰略意義的地區。Hambantota港距離國際海運主通道不過幾十公里遠,該港口目前處於近乎關閉狀態。雖然中資企業已經接手經營,但並沒有多少業務。與之截然相反的是,科倫坡港呈現一片繁榮的景象,大量貨輪在那裡進進出出。」
「So Sri Lanka was just mentioned,and Ithink it's afascinating case of both some
of the rewards for China even when things go wrong,and so,you know,in the southern part of Sri Lanka,which Ihad an opportunity to visit just afew weeks ago,there's aport at Hambantota that we're probably all familiar with that was built by Chinese contractors with Chinese financing,and then when the government couldn't pay back the loan,China took equity in the port.They now have a99-year lease,and this is in avery strategic area of the world that's,you know,miles from some of the busiest shipping lanes.And if you go there today,it's,you know,kind of on lockdown.It's been handed over to Chinese companies to run,but there's not alot of economic activity there,and it's adramatic contrast.It's like night and day between that port and the port in Colombo where there is lots of,you know,cargo vessels coming in and out.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):如何解決這些問題?讓我們聽聽章家敦和陳破空先生的看法。
Just how will these problems work themselves out?Let』s hear my discussion with Gordon Chang and Chen Pokong again.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「萬一有的國家無力償還貸款,中共會怎麼做?」
「What happens if the countries can』t pay back Chinese loans?」

章家敦(《野獸日報》專欄作家):「我想會發生幾件事。首先,中國會將一部分貸款轉為股東股份。中國也要承受部分壞賬損失。中國或許會用軍隊駐紮權作為交換壞賬的條件。我們在斯里蘭卡看到了這一點。總之,我們會看到中國會在債務方面承擔風險,因為很多項目無法盈利。所以,後面會有妥協,中國也將要承擔損失。」
GORDON CHANG:I think that we』re going to see acouple things happen.First of all,China will have to convert some of that into equity.China will take some losses.China may get some military bases in places as sort of in payment for loans.We saw alittle bit of this in Sri Lanka,for instance.But what China is going to do is basically end up stretching its finances too thin,largely because these projects,for the most part,are not economically viable.So there』s going to be compromise,and China』s going to take alittle bit of ahit.Maybe abig hit on the places where Belt and Road has really fallen into hard times.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「一帶一路」計劃最終是誰受益?我們來聽聽陳破空先生的看法。
Finally who does the Belt and Road Initiative benefit in the end?Here is what Chen Pokong has to say.

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):「『一帶一路』計劃給中國普通的老百姓帶來了什麽好處呢?對中國來講,它像一個經濟提振計劃呢,還是主要是中國的精英階層獲利?」
「What are the benefits of the BRI to average Chinese citizens?Is it like an economic stimulus package for China,or does it mostly benefit Chinese elites?」

陳破空先生(資深時政評論家):「眾所周知,中國依然是一個發展失衡的國家,貧富差距巨大。中國政府應當做的事情,是把更多的錢用在自己的人民身上。例如,民眾對醫療、教育、衛生、與養老福利方面的需求巨大,到目前為止,中國政府撥付的資金十分有限。而中國政府現在卻在國外大把花錢,中國網民給中國政府起了綽號,叫『大撒幣』。至於『一帶一路』計劃,如果它真是一個提振中國經濟的一攬子方案的話,中國人民也不清楚它是怎麽運作的。過去5年來,中國人民沒有看到,也沒有感受到它給中國究竟帶來了哪些好處。其實呢,『一帶一路』計劃對中共利益集團或紅色權貴,還有另一層含義。這就是:中國的高層官員們與紅色權貴們希望通過所謂的『海外投資』,為自己大量的非法所得在國際社會上找到一個出口,在一定程度上,『一帶一路』計劃可能是一個變相的洗錢計劃。這是當今世界上最猖獗的、最詭秘的洗錢計劃。最近發生的一個例子,就是前政治局委員、重慶市委書記孫政才,他被指控犯有貪污罪,其中一項罪名就是以『一帶一路』計劃的名義,將政府資金提供自己的一名情婦,而這個情婦同時也是一名商人。」
「As we know China is still an imbalanced country with abig gap between the rich and the poor.What Chinese government should do is to invest more money on its own citizens.For example,there is ahuge need of health care,education,sanitation,and retirement benefits,which so far,have limited funding from Chinese government.What Chinese government is doing now is to invest alot of money abroad.「Spilling money」,Da Sa Bi,that is the nickname that Chinese netizens gave to the Chinese government.
Regarding the Belt and Road Initiative,if it is astimulus package for the Chinese economy,the Chinese people have no idea how it works.The Chinese people do not see or feel any advantages this plan has brought to China in the past five years.Actually,the Belt and Road plan may have imply another layer of intentions by the CCP syndicate or red elites.That is Senior Chinese officials and Red elites hope to find an outlet in the international community for their enormous ill-gotten gains through the so-called「overseas investment」.For at some extent,this Belt and Road plan may be adisguised money laundering plan.This may be the most brilliant and secretive money laundering scheme in the world today.One of the latest evidences is that Sun Zhengcai,a former Politburo member and Chongqing』s party chief,he was accused on charges of corruption.One of his accusations is using the name of the『Belt and Road』plan to provide government funds for his mistress,who is also abusinesswoman.」

蕭茗(Host/Simone Gao):中國大陸是世界第二大經濟體。她的強大無可置疑。然而,一個經濟強權無所顧忌的侵入別人的勢力範圍是否明智?歐盟,印度,甚至俄羅斯的反應已經明確回答了這個問題。一言以蔽之,從地緣政治的角度出發,『一帶一路』計劃或許對中共有意義。但是中共目前還無力實施這樣大規模的系統工程,更不要說許多國家質疑中共的真實動機。謝謝收看《世事關心》,我是蕭茗,我們下週再會。
China is the 2nd largest economy in the world.No doubt,it is powerful.However,is it wise for it to show itself as asuperpower that could just break into other people』s backyard without any concerns?The European Union,India,even Russia』s reaction is aclear answer to that question.To sum up,the Belt and Road Initiative might make sense from ageopolitical point of view for China,but China is not quite ready for the scale and complexity of this effort,let alone the fact that the world does not trust China』s motivation.Thanks for watching《Zooming In》,I am Simone Gao,and see you next week.
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