【新唐人2015年01月29日訊】中共即將在今年9月3號舉行大閱兵，這是習近平上任以來的首次閱兵，更是中共建政後首次不在「十一」舉行大規模閱兵，因此備受各界關注。
中共《人民日報》微信號，於1月26號發出有關閱兵文章，間接證實中共將於今年舉行紀念抗日戰爭勝利70週年紀念閱兵式。
這篇題為《中國今年為何大閱兵？》的文章稱，今年大閱兵目的有四，包括展示軍事實力、震懾日本、凝聚國內信心及展現軍隊掌控在中共手中的事實。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「我們看到中共的閱兵有一個傳統，就是這些領導人他的核心地位得到建立。某種程度上來說，也是要重申槍桿子裡面出政權。」
香港《文匯報》報導，中共將在今年9月舉行閱兵，並邀請其他國家元首出席。文章引述香港媒體稱這是中共公安部副部長傅政華證實的消息，又稱俄羅斯總統蒲亭估計將到北京出席。
美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明：「我覺得有兩個因素非常值得注意，第一就是中俄在建立專制的一種軸心聯盟，那麼我們看到以上海合作組織為核心，你就可以看到中國跟東亞的這些國家和俄國，他們在打造一個對抗西方世界的這麼一個聯盟國家。」
第二個原因，美國紐約城市大學政治學教授夏明認為，蒲亭對俄國的憲法進行大量變更，他建立的國家安全體系，其實就是今天習近平模仿的對像，某種程度他們是非常親近的盟友。
不過，時事評論員邢天行認為，亞洲地區國家包括蒲亭在內，對所謂的「中國崛起」，一直是存有戒心的，他們不可能真正站在中國利益這一邊。
時事評論員邢天行：「所以就是說，從整體形勢上來看，這次閱兵其實就是習近平進一步向外界宣示，軍政大權一統，同時也是在警誡那些看不清形勢的人。」
據了解，中共在文革後舉行過三次大型閱兵活動，分別是在1984年、1999年、2009年。
時事評論員夏小強撰文總結，1984年閱兵，鄧小平藉助與越南的一場戰爭，向美國示好，向黨內展示權力。1999年閱兵，江澤民剛剛發動了對中國社會和政局影響巨大的鎮壓法輪功信仰運動，因此通過閱兵製造恐怖氣氛。2009年閱兵，江澤民與胡錦濤同時現身天安門閱兵臺，顯示江澤民仍然「垂簾聽政」。
時事評論員邢天行：「習近平要通過這個大閱兵，尤其大閱兵之前，這麼長時間他就宣佈出來之後，全國要進行一個總動員，要進行排演，這個過程實際上就是在洗刷江系當年那個影響力，也就是說，宣誓的信號就是讓世界皆知，從此以後中國將進入習權下的時代。」
邢天行分析指出，對於中共來講，一切都是為了政治，它的外交是為內政服務，從閱兵來看，最核心的問題就是為了內政。
時事評論員邢天行：「這個一系列的動作都能看出來，他(習近平)的目標根本就不是在震懾美和日這方面，不過就是說，在選擇這個時間點上，因為作為黨媒那個報導上，它一定要給中國一個說法，肯定是說啊，這個時間是要去震懾日本，同時也是宣揚軍力強大，是針對美國來的，它是要這樣說，但是這個絕對不是習近平的真實的意圖，習近平的真實的意圖，實際還是在他這個反腐這個核心上。」
英國廣播公司《BBC》報導，引述香港資深中國事務評論員林和立的說法指，習近平上任後大幅改組中共上層權力架構，除所謂反腐打虎外，軍方高層也頻繁替換資深將領，因此，今年的大閱兵，是給習近平一個對內彰顯軍權的機會。
採訪/陳漢 編輯/黃億美 後製/李智遠
What’s Behind The Chinese Regime’s Unprecedented
Major Military Parade Ahead of National Day?
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officially announced a
large-scale military parade will be held on Sep.3 2015.
This is not only the first military parade since Xi took power,
but also the first time since 1949 that any major military
parade will be held on a day other than Oct.1, the CCP’s
National Day,.
The news has created a great deal of public attention.
Party mouthpiece People’s Daily released an official
WeChat piece on Jan.26.
The piece indirectly confirms that a military parade will be
held in 2015.
It is to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the
victory over Japan in World War II.
The online piece is titled “Why Does China Hold a Military
Parade in 2015?" The piece presented four reasons:
Firstly “to display military power";
Secondly “to intimidate Japan";
Thirdly “to lift national morale"; and
Lastly “to show the party is in control of the army".
Xia Ming, professor of politics at CUNY, “We see the CCP’s
military parade has a tradition that it is held after the
authority of a new leader is established.
To some extent, the move is again to claim ‘power grows
out of the gun", a principle that the party believes in".
According to Hong Kong’s Wen Wei Po, the CCP will invite
foreign political leaders to the September parade.
The report quoted other Hong Kong media that, the deputy
minister for public security Fu Zhenghua had confirmed the
news, and Russian President Putin will attend the event.
Xia Ming, “I think there are two points that should be
brought to attention.
First, the CCP and Russia may be setting up an axis power
of the dictatorship regime.
If taking the Shanghai Association Organization as the core
of this system, one may see that the CCP, along with Russia
and some East Asian countries, is establishing an alliance
to oppose the western world".
The second key fact Prof. Xia Ming mentioned, is Putin’s
mass amendments on constitution and establishment
of a state security system. Putin can be an example for
Xi Jinping to follow, said Xia.
So the two countries can be intimate allies in this sense.
On the other hand, political commentator Xing Tianxing
believes other Asian countries, as well as Russia, are
always vigilant against the concept of the so-called
“Chinese Century".
They will never really stand for the CCP’s benefits,
said Xing.
Xing Tianxing, “This is to say, the big picture suggests that
the military parade is Xi’s display of his military and
political power to the world. It also serves as a warning
message to those sitting on the fence".
Since the end of Cultural Revolution, the CCP has held
three major military parades, in 1984, 1999 and 2009.
Xia Xiaoqiang, political commentator, wrote a summary
of the three previous parades.
In 1984, Deng Xiaoping conflicted with Vietnam, as a sop
to the U.S. and display of his power.
In 1999, Jiang Zemin started the persecution against
Falun Gong, which has created a huge impact on China’s
society and politics ever since. Jiang held the military
parade to make a terrifying effect.
In 2009, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao showed up together
at the top of Tiananmen.
Analysts suggested Jiang was still “holding court"
even after retirement.
Xing Tianxing, political commentator, “This time Xi made an
early announcement of the parade.
The whole country has to prepare for it from now on.
Xi’s goal is, through all these preparations, to root out all
of Jiang’s remaining forces.
In other words, the military parade and pledge of allegiance
is to let the world know China is now in Xi Jinping’s era."
Xing commented that, every CCP move is to serve its
political goal; diplomatic moves of course do the same.
Therefore the core issue in holing a large-scale military
parade is still to solve internal political problems, said Xing.
Xing Tianxing, “We can see this from a series of Xi’s moves.
Xi’s ultimate goal is not in intimidating the U.S. or Japan.
To be announced at this time, party media have to give a
“reasonable" statement about why the parade will be held.
All they can say is about intimidating Japan, a display of
military power, a move directed against the U.S. etc.
But certainly these are not Xi’s real purpose for holding
the parade.
The core issue that Xi really worries about
is still his anti-corruption campaign."
A BBC Chinese report quoted Hong Kong senior China
affairs commentator Willy Lam.
Lam said, Xi had made significant personnel changes
among high-level CCP officials since taking power.
Besides his “tiger hunt" moves, there have also been
frequent substitutions between military leaders.
With such a backdrop, this year’s military parade will give
Xi an opportunity to display his military power to the
whole party, said Lam.
Interview/ChenHan Edit/Huang Yimei Post-Production/Li Zhiyuan
