【新唐人2014年12月22日訊】在經濟制裁、油價下跌、盧布貶值的三重壓力之下，俄羅斯經濟備受到重挫。而普京政府是否會垮臺，也被國家社會所關注，作為普京政府關係密切的中共當局，對俄羅斯將採取什麼樣的立場和態度，普京和北京將面臨什麼樣的挑戰，請看專家分析。
儘管俄羅斯央行幾次加息，幾個月來，盧布還是持續下跌，觸及歷史低點——1美元兌換50盧布的「死亡線」，盧布兌美元年內跌幅超過55%。
據美國《華爾街日報》17號報導，莫斯科居民紛紛提取盧布兌換美元和歐元，導致下午2點，俄羅斯儲蓄銀行莫斯科分行的外匯就被兌換光光。
而蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)則表示，由於盧布的劇烈波動，已經暫停在俄羅斯的網路銷售。傢俱銷售商宜家(IKEA)也宣佈，在俄羅斯上調價格。
10月份，中共央行與俄羅斯聯邦中央銀行，簽署了規模為1500億元人民幣/8150億盧布的雙邊本幣互換協議。外界質疑，中共在為盧布兜底。
有媒體評論說，中共在沒有摸清俄羅斯危機有多深的情況之下貿然行動，中國對俄羅斯的任何施救都極有可能演變成為自殘行為。
不過，近幾個月來國際油價下跌接近一半，對於油氣出口佔財政收入一半以上的俄羅斯來說，損失慘重，加上國際社會因烏克蘭問題實施制裁，對俄羅斯造成的衝擊，使一貫為普京唱讚歌的大陸媒體，也開始調轉方向。
大陸門戶「新浪網」，發表題為「俄羅斯上演貨幣危機 或撼動普京掌權根基」的文章說，儘管普京將盧布崩盤歸咎於投機份子和西方國家，不過對俄羅斯經濟而言，貨幣危機意味著一場信用危機，增加了民眾對普京支持率下滑的危險。
中共海外喉舌《環球時報》報導說，盧布16號對美元「充滿野性的暴跌」讓「普京危險了」。
美國《中國事務》雜誌總編伍凡：「（俄國）搶了中國那麼多土地，老百姓沒有忘記，現在這一場俄國的變化會影響到中國的變化，因為希望兩家聯手對抗美國，是中共的長期思路，現在俄國走到這個結局，中國人幫不了忙的，再買多少石油也沒有用，如果俄國真的倒了，中國和美國的關係會不會也發生變化呢，這個趨勢是全局性的，來勢非常急迫。」
白宮發言人歐內斯特日前表示，歐巴馬有意簽署美國國會剛通過的制裁俄羅斯新法案。目前俄羅斯有40%食品來源於進口。而塑料工業，一直需要依靠進口來解決內需問題。
伍凡：「西方給它一制裁，所有的農產品不進口了，老百姓生活馬上變苦，老百姓對普京的支持度就下降。過去的共產黨只管軍事工業、重工業，不管民生工業，這個思路一直延續下來，普京就是共產黨嘛，普京是共產黨裡的特務頭子，所以經濟思路是這麼走下來的。」
美國《中國事務》雜誌總編伍凡認為，蒲亭現在唯一的辦法，只能利用外匯儲備購進盧布，來緩解盧布下滑。
不過，在俄羅斯4150億的外匯儲備中，除去不能流動的黃金和1700億主權基金，能夠流動的外匯儲備基金只剩下1000億左右。而俄羅斯經濟部認為，今年資本外流規模可能達到1200億美元。
17號，俄羅斯財政部放出要拋售70億美元外匯的消息，最終使盧布匯率一度重返60以內。
中國金融智庫專家鞏勝利：「把它的家底算清楚了，如果它的美元儲備已經花完，他就沒有其它辦法，按照現在這麼發展，簡單的說，它佔領克里米亞不吐出來就是自取滅亡。」
美國國務卿克里(John Kerry) 17號表示，根據普京的行動，制裁「可能會在幾週或幾天內解除」。
當天晚上，普京與烏克蘭、德國和法國的國家元首通了電話。這些政府隨後發佈的聲明，要鞏固上週以來已經大體實現的烏克蘭東部停火。
《紐約時報》報導說，新的經濟形勢必然會迫使俄羅斯專註於國內危機，越來越多的跡象表明，親俄羅斯分裂份子和烏克蘭方面將在歐洲的協助下，將很快舉行會晤。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/舒燦
Ruble Crash Tests Putin and Beijing
Thanks to economic sanctions, plummeting oil prices
and devaluation of the ruble, Russia’s economy tumbles.
Recently other countries have been concerned
about the following things:
Whether Putin’s government would collapse;
What attitude would the Chinese regime,
so-called close ally of Russia, have towards Russia;
Whether it would change from “hoping Russia
not to fall" into adding fuel to the flame making the ruble
fall further, or conversely give up on Russia
and turn to the United States?
Please see the following experts’ analyses.
Though the Russian central bank has raised interest rates
several times, the ruble still continues to fall in recent months,
Its exchange rate against U.S. dollar has hit a record low
of 50 to 1, which is “on the verge of death line".
In fact, the ruble’s exchange rate against the dollar
has plummeted over 55 percent this year.
Most Moldovans working in Russia] converted
the rubles they earned into dollars or euros before sending them
back to their families, leading to a Moscow branch of Sberbank
to run out of foreign currency by 2 p.m, reported Wall Street Journal.
Apple Inc. said that due to the volatility of the ruble,
online sales in Russia have been suspended.
Furniture manufacturer IKEA also announced
price hikes in Russia.
In October, the Chinese regime’s Central Bank
and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation signed
a scale of 150 billion yuan/815 billion rubles of bilateral
currency swap agreements.
Outsiders doubted that the Chinese regime was to
reveal all the details for rubles.
Some media commented that before the Chinese regime is
clear about the seriousness of risk to the ruble,
any action taken by the Chinese regime to rescue Russia
is likely to become a self-injurious behavior.
Now, international oil prices have fallen by nearly half
in recent months.
As the proceeds from oil and gas exports account for
over half of Russian national revenue, losses for Russia
are tremendous.
Additionally, international sanctions resulting from the
Ukrainian problem have imposed further impact on Russia.
Given these, Chinese media that long supported Putin,
have started to reverse direction.
Chinese Internet portal “Sina" published an article entitled
“Russia currency crisis may shake the foundation of Putin’s power."
It said that though Putin blamed the collapse of the ruble
on opportunists and Western countries,
to Russia’s economy, the currency crisis means
a credit crisis, and it may have the risk of pushing down people’s
support rate for Putin.
The Chinese regime’s overseas mouthpiece, the “Global Times,"
reported the sharp plunge of the ruble against the dollar on
Dec. 16 pushed Putin to a “dangerous situation."
Chris Wu Fan, chief editor of Chinese Affairs magazine:
“(Russia) has grabbed so much land from China,
and the Chinese people haven’t forgotten it.
Russia’s turmoil at present may affect China’s attitude
toward Russia.
Working hand in hand to fight against the United States has long
been the Chinese regime’s long-term thinking,
but Russia has encountered this kind of situation now.
So, Chinese are unable to help it out.
Regardless of how much oil it would purchase from Russia,
it would be useless.
Should Russia really fall, will the relationship between China
and the United States be changed?
This is a global trend, and it is very urgent."
White House Press Secretary Josh Ernest said the other day
that Obama intended to sign the Russian sanctions bill
newly passed by the U.S. Congress.
Currently Russia imports 40 percent of food from other countries.
As to the plastics industry,
it has long relied on imports to solve domestic problems.
Chris Wu: “Once the West imposes sanctions, no agricultural
products would be imported.
The people’s livelihood would immediately become harder,
and in turn, people’s support rate for Putin would decline.
In the past, the Communist Party only attached importance
to military and heavy industry,
regardless of people’s living and the livelihood industry.
This ideology has long been inherited.
As Putin is a Communist, and is head of the KGB,
his economic thinking would definitely be like this."
Chris Wu believes that the only way for Putin now is to use
foreign exchange reserves to purchase rubles to ease
its plunge.
However, in Russia’s foreign exchange reserves of $415 billion,
apart from the gold and the $170 billion of the sovereign wealth
funds, the foreign exchange reserves that can flow are only
about $100 billion.
Russian Economic Ministry estimated that the capital outflow
this year may reach the level of $120 billion.
On Dec. 17, the Russian Ministry of Finance released a piece
of news that it would sell $ 7 billion of foreign exchange,
and it triggered the exchange rate to drop to less than 60 rubles
against the U.S. dollar.
China Financial Research think tank expert Gong Shengli:
“We should make sure if it’s run out of dollar reserves.
it would have no other way.
In accordance with the current development, if it refused to
withdraw from the occupied Crimea,
it would be kind of self-defeating."
US Secretary of State John Kerry said on Dec. 17 that
depending on Putin’s actions,
sanctions “may be lifted within a few weeks or a few days."
In the evening, Putin phoned the heads of state of Ukraine,
Germany and France.
These governments then issued a statement that
the largely achieved ceasefire in eastern Ukraine last week
should be further solidified.
New York Times reported that the new economic situation
will inevitably force Russia to focus on the domestic crisis.
More and more signs show that the pro-Russian separatists
and Ukraine, with assistance from Europe,
will have a meeting soon.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ShuCan
