【新唐人2014年10月10日訊】香港罷課和佔中已持續超過12天，現在似乎陷入僵局。多方觀察認為，目前香港的局勢是江澤民的殘餘勢力一手挑起，來搞亂香港，以達到逼迫習近平停止黨內清洗，甚至下臺為目的。至於習近平手中是否握有奪回局面的殺手鐧？習近平又是否敢用呢？我們一起來聽聽專家和學者的分析。
9號，香港學聯、學民思潮、和平佔中、泛民立法會議員宣佈新一輪不合作運動，向政府施壓，來配合佔中運動，爭取真正普選，政務司司長林鄭月娥則回應，要將普選議題與佔領行動分開處理，否則，會擱置與學聯對話。而學聯強調，必須留守佔領據點，不會輕言撤離，政府若不回應，將不能管治香港。目前的香港局勢似乎已經陷入僵局。
旅美學者、中國問題專家章天亮日前撰文，認為江澤民和曾慶紅陣營，被習近平在反腐中打得落花流水，因此借曾慶紅盤踞已久的香港挑事，使習近平陷入了兩難困局。
今年6月，江澤民親信—負責香港事務的中共政治局常委張德江，聯合江的另一親信，中宣部部長劉雲山炮製的所謂「香港白皮書」，極大的刺痛了港人，導致51萬香港市民走上街頭，表達爭取真普選的願望。
8月17號江澤民生日當天，中共地下黨又組織號稱有1500個團體參加的「反佔中」遊行，激化矛盾。張德江被爆出在其中起到幕後總策劃的作用。
隨後，張德江以人大決議方式關閉了香港真普選的大門，直接促成香港數十萬人的和平「佔中」，並要求梁振英下臺。
專欄作家冉沙洲認為，張德江在香港問題上連續點起的這「兩把火」，企圖搞亂香港，激怒港人，並且企圖讓習近平動武，引發血案重演「六四」，目的就是為了在國際重壓下，轟習近平下臺。
大陸獨立學者陳明慧：「我認為江是治國無術擾民有方的這麼一個人，實際上香港也是他們內鬥的一種表現形式。反腐的大火已經燒到他的大本營了——江蘇和上海，只有把這個局勢打亂重來，他才能亂中取勝，渾水摸魚。」
佔中運動展開後，港警使用胡椒噴霧驅離抗議人群，隨後劉雲山控制下的《人民日報》與其他媒體，力挺梁振英，同時曾慶紅曾經掌管的國安系統，買通黑社會，騷擾、毆打學生和佔中人士，以製造暴力衝突，再一次讓香港亂局，火上澆油。
9月29號，有海外媒體爆料，張德江和梁振英曾經建議武力鎮壓佔中運動，但遭到習近平否決。
章天亮指出，如果像「六四」那樣開槍鎮壓，中國將面臨貿易禁運，經濟大幅下滑、引發國內的失業與民變﹔而貪官們在國外的資產也將被凍結。
那麼，習近平該如何破局呢？甚麼才是他的殺手鐧呢？
陳明慧：「對江來說，他的最大的罪狀是迫害信仰團體，比如法輪功，基督教會，第二塊就是對民運人士異議人士的迫害，第三個就是89六四。如果他一旦失去權力，他必然遭到清算。」
不過到目前為止，習近平對付江澤民的手段還是局限在反腐上。在香港陷入困局之際，9號中紀委將前中共廣州市委書記萬慶良雙開，報送司法。外界解讀為，這是習陣營是對江派的一個反擊。
時政評論員夏小強：「習近平不能把江澤民迫害法輪功這些反人類罪行曝光的原因，是因為習近平現在所作的事情，都是在中共的黨性原則和組織原則這個框架下做的，那麼在公開的時候他就不能去公開，江澤民也是利用這些黨性原則來制約習近平，打擊習近平。」
章天亮指出，香港的僵局並非無解，關鍵在組織者的魄力和膽識。如果能拿住中共「反人類罪行」的軟肋，香港不僅將得到國際社會的響應和支持，而且將得到天助。
採訪編輯/劉惠 後製/周天
Jiang Zemin Faction Creates Chaos in Hong Kong
How Will Xi Jinping Counterattack?
Occupy Central has lasted for nearly two weeks, the current
situation seems to be seizing up.
Observers say the Hong Kong incident was caused by
Jiang Zemin’s faction in order to mess up Hong Kong
using it to force Xi Jinping to stop clearing out
corrupt officials or force him to step down.
Does Xi have secret method to take control back?
Will he dare to use it?
Let’s take a look at what experts say.
On Sept. 9, Hong Kong Federal of Students (HKFS),
Scholarism, Occupy Central with Love and Peace and
members of Pan-democracy Camp jointly announced
a new round of protest.
It is to pressure the HK government, and to continue Occupy
Central movement in fighting for genuine universal suffrage.
Carrie Lam, Chief Secretary of HK government responded
that it should separate topics of election from Occupy Central.
Otherwise, the dialogue will be cancelled.
However, HKFS stressed that they will stay on the sites, and
not casually leave, if the government ignores them.
The current administration should not be in charge.
The situation in Hong Kong seems to have reached stalemate.
Zhang Tianliang, US-based China affairs expert
in published articles, says the Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong
factions were defeated during Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption,
so the Jiang-Zeng faction creates trouble in Hong Kong,
to put Xi in a dilemma.
In June, Jiang’s ally in Standing Committee, Zhang Dejiang,
who is in charge of Hong Kong affairs,
concocted the“Hong Kong White Paper” with Liu Yunshan,
minister of propaganda.
It deeply roused Hong Kong people’s feelings, which provoked
510,000 citizens to take to the streets in protest.
Protesters expressed that real universal suffrage
is needed in Hong Kong.
Aug. 17 is Jiang Zemin’s birthday, the underground Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) in Hong Kong organized 1,500
groups to participate in an anti-Occupy parade
to intensify differences.
Zhang Dejiang was exposed as the man behind the scenes.
Later, Zhang used National People’s Congress to turn down
HK’s general democratic elections.
It triggered more than tens of thousands
of people to protest.
The protesters requested that Chief Executive
Leung Chun-ying step down.
Writer Ran Shazhou says that Zhang Dejiang aroused
these two incidents intending to mess up Hong Kong
and anger Hongkongers.
It also attempted to force Xi Jinping to use military force,
to repeat the Tiananmen massacre that happened in 1989.
The purpose was to force Xi to step down
under international pressure.
China-based independent scholar, Chen Minghui:“I think
Jiang Zemin was good at disturbing civilians but
not good at running the country.
Actually, the Hong Kong situation reveals
one of its internal struggles, and because anti-corruption has
reached their compound—Jiangsu Province and Shanghai.
Only by messing up the situation, can they have a chance to win.”
Hong Kong police used pepper spray to disperse protesters,
later, state-run media, including People’s Daily controlled
by Liu Yunshan, showed strong support for Leung Chun-ying.
Meanwhile, National Security organs that Zeng Qinghong
controlled, hired triads to attack students and
Occupy Central protesters, creating violent incidents
to cause chaos in HK and fuel people’s anger.
On Sept. 29, overseas media exposed Zhang Dejiang
and Leung Chun-ying for suggesting a crackdown on protesters
by the army, which Xi refused.
Zhang Tianliang says that if they had started a crackdown
like the Tiananmen Massacre in 1989,
China would face a trade embargo, its economy would crash,
triggering unemployment and a popular uprising.
Furthermore, corrupt officials’ assets abroad would be frozen.
So how does Xi Jinping break up the situation?
What is his secret method?
Chen Yu:“Jiang Zemin’s biggest crime is the persecution of
spiritual groups, ie Falun Gong and the Christian Church.
His second crime is persecution of dissidents,
and the third is linked with the crackdown on Tiananmen
Students Protest in 1989.
Once Jiang loses his power, he definitely will face punishment.”
So far, Xi Jinping deals only with Jiang on a basis
limited to anti-corruption.
On Sept. 9, during Hong Kong’s chaotic situation,
Wan Qingliang, former Guangzhou City secretary
was removed and expelled from the CCP,
then handed over to the court.
Observers analyze that this is the Xi Jinping camp’s
first counterattack against the Jiang faction.
Xia Xiaoqiang, current affairs commentator:“The reason that
Xi didn’t expose Jiang’s crimes of inhumanity,
is because what he has done now is under CCP rule.
When it was necessary to expose Jiang, he didn’t.
So Jiang has taken advantage of CCP rule
to control and attack Xi.”
Zhang Tianliang says that Hong Kong’s situation
has a solution.
The key point depends on whether organizers
have extraordinary strength and courage or not.
If they can target the CCP’s“soft-rib” of INHUMANITY,
Hong Kong will not only receive international support,
but will also get help from the heavens.
Interview & Edit/LiuHui Post-Production/ZhouTian
