【新唐人2014年05月08日訊】「世界銀行」的「國際比較計劃（ICP）」在4月30號發佈最新報告，報告認爲中國2014年就可能超越美國，成爲全球最大的經濟體。而中共當局面對這個桂冠，卻尷尬的拒絕接受。學者認為，中國國內生產總值(GDP)的數字被高估，中國的實際情況是：各行各業低迷，經濟受困於通貨膨脹和房地產泡沫危機，困難重重。
據了解，「國際比較計劃」這份最新報告，是由多家國際機構共同完成，以2011年的數據爲基礎，進行評估。而使用「購買力平價」這一新方法得出的結論是，美國目前是世界第一大經濟體，中國緊隨其後，中國有可能在今年超越美國，成爲世界第一經濟大國。
中共政府面對這個擠下美國保持140多年的「世界第一經濟大國」寶座，卻採取了拒絕接受的態度，很多官媒的相關報導標題都標註了問號。《新華社》5月1號發表短評，提醒中國經濟應當「警惕虛胖」。
美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院教授謝田：「因為它們自己也知道，實際上這個數字，根本是一個謊言，虛假的一個泡影，整個GDP的數字本身已經被大大的高估了，而中國的物價水平被大大低估了，造成中國平價購買力，看起來相對的高，中國老百姓受困於通貨膨脹，經常會發生在美國或其他海外，購買一些產品會更便宜。」
「國際比較計劃」在2005年的報告中，世行認爲，中國的經濟規模不及美國的一半，只有美國的43%。但最新報告使用「購買力平價」這一新方法得出的結論則是，2011年中國GDP達到了美國的87%。
浙江財經大學教授謝作詩：「按市場匯率算的話，中國GDP跟美國還有不少差距呢，現在只能佔到百分之六十左右﹔要按購買力平價算，你就高估了中國的GDP，因為中國的勞動便宜，說是今年超過美國這個有點誇張。」
根據「國際比較計劃」的數據，在人均國民生産排行榜上，美國位居第12，中國則遠遠落後，只排在第99位。美國《華爾街日報》中文網相關文章引述國際貨幣基金(IMF)前官員施瓦茨(Stephen Schwartz)的話說，不難想像人口越多的國家會有更高的産值。他說，如果按人均單位衡量，中國依然非常貧困。
浙江財經大學教授謝作詩：「人均更不要說了，總量都還有差距，何況人均呢?目前中國經濟的困難，就是前期不恰當的刺激造成的，現在面對經濟下滑的壓力，越刺激的話不好。我判斷今年可能泡沫會破裂，中國的房市肯定要下調，救市不能主宰這個下跌趨勢，GDP下調太大，失業會大，成為社會動盪。」
去年，美國的GDP總量超過16萬億美元，中國為9萬多億美元，差距高達7萬多億。如此巨大的差距，一年之內怎麽可能超越？所以大家質疑，中國的經濟規模被故意誇大。
署名「鶴立堪風」的網友指出：「竭澤而漁的繁榮，不值得炫耀」。還有網友（林林L1982）質問：中國的GDP知道怎麽來的？賤賣資源！出賣廉價勞動力。然後再利用這個創造的外匯開動印鈔機，造泡沫房地産。
大陸投資專家鄭先生：「那個數據大家都知道，水分很多。實際的情況是困難重重，各行各業都低迷。人均稅負年年在增長，人均可支配收入年年在萎縮，而物價上漲的指數，年年超過了官方的宣佈，房地產市場還有很多市場也暴露這個現狀嘛，疲軟低迷，有些人得利了，造成了極大的貧富差距。」
大陸財經評論家張平撰文：「中國GDP世界第一背後究竟尷尬了誰？」 他提到﹕因爲中國經濟目前困境重重，待轉型升級，經濟體制改革已步入深水區，冷不丁的被戴上一頂充滿不實數據的桂冠，有點不倫不 類。
另外，張平認為，中共拒絕接受中國成為世界第一大經濟體，國際社會的看法是﹕中共不想承擔經濟大國的國際責任。他說，中共要爭取國家利益時，習慣坐在前排，要求大國地位﹔但要承擔國際責任時，則縮在後排，要求世界將它當作發展中國家看待，給予各種援助與優惠。
採訪編輯/熊斌 後製/周天
Chinese Communist Party Embarrassed: Overtaking
The U.S. as The Biggest Economy?
On April 30, the World Bank International Comparison
Program (ICP) released its latest report.
The ICP said that China may overtake the U.S. in 2014
as the world’s largest economy.
However, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) knows the truth
of its embarrassing financial situation.
Scholars say that China has made its Gross Domestic Products
(GDP) figures too high;
The reality is that all industries are facing a difficult time, the
economy is affected by inflation and housing bubble crisis.
Sources say the ICP report was jointly done by several
international institutes using calculations from 2011 data.
Purchasing power parity was used
to get the new estimates.
It states that now the U.S. is the world’s biggest economy,
China is the second.
It says that China is likely to surpass the U.S.
as the world’s largest economy this year.
As the U.S. has consistently remained the world’s largest
economy for 140 years, the CCP questioned itself whether
its economy is as good as expected.
On May 1, Xinhua News Agency published a brief comment
warning that China’s economy should be alerted to”fake fat”.
Xie Tian, Professor of University of South Carolina Aiken:
“The CCP knew the figures they provided are unreal.
The entire GDP figures have been overestimated, but the
goods pricing level in China is underestimated.
It purchasing power seem relatively high.
The Chinese people are trapped in inflation, it often happens
that buying goods in the U.S. and other countries is cheaper.”
According to the ICP report in 2005, the World Bank then said
the size of China’s economy was 43% of the U.S..
The new report used Purchasing Power Parity to estimate
the figures.
These say that China’s GDP in 2011 reached 87%
of the size of the U.S..
Xie Zuoshi, Professor at Zhejiang University of Finance and
Economics:”Calculating the market exchange rate, China’s
GDP is far behind the U.S., maybe 60%.
To base information on Purchasing Power Parity, China’s
GDP would be overestimated.
China has cheap labor, and to overtake the U.S.
this year is a bit exaggerated.”
According to the ICP report, on rating per capita of Gross
National Product, the U.S. was ranked in the top 12.
China was far behind the US, ranked as 99.
The Wall Street Journal Chinese website cited Stephen
Schwartz, formerly of the International Monetary Fund.
He said that”You’d expect countries with more people to
have bigger output.
In per capita terms, China is still very poor.”
Xie Xuoshi:”Let alone per capita, the total amount of GDP
in China is still far behind.
The current Chinese economic difficulties were caused by
its improper stimulation implemented earlier.
Now facing the pressure of economic sliding,
the more stimulation, the worse the outcome.
I think the bubble will burst this year and China’s housing
market certainly will be reduced.
The bailout of the market cannot control the declining trend.
If the GDP is reduced too much, the unemployment
will increase, more social unrest will also take place.”
In 2013, the U.S. GDP reached over $16 trillion, China was
over $9 trillion, which is $7 trillion less than the U.S..
How to fill the huge gap and overtake the U.S. in one year?
So the public believe that China’s economy size
was overestimated.
Netizen”helikanfeng” said:”To drain the pond to get all the
fish, is not worth of showing off.”
Netizen”Linlin L1982” questioned:”Do you know where
China’s GDP come from? Cheap resources! Cheap labor!
After they got foreign currency from these channels,
they created the real estate bubble.”
Mr. Zheng, China-based investment expert:”We all know
the figures are unreal.
There are a lot of problems in reality, every industry faces
bad situations.
Per capita tax burden increases every year, per capita income
is reducing every year, but the price index exceeds officials’
estimates each time.
Real estate and other markets face problems of decline.
Some people get rich, which created a huge wealth gap.”
Zhang Ping, China-based financial commentator wrote an
article questioning”China GDP is said to be at the top of the
world. Who feels embarrassed?”
He said that because China’s current economy faces many
difficulties, the economic reform has got into deep water,.
Suddenly it was putting on inaccurate data and a crown,
it is nonsense.
Zhang Ping said that snce the CCP rejected taking the crown
of the world’s largest economy, the international communities
view is that the CCP doesn’t want to take international
responsibility for the economy.
He said when the CCP needs to obtain interests, it has a habit
of sitting in the front row, requesting a large country’s seat;
When it is time to take international responsibility,
it hides in the back row.
Then asking the international community to treat it as a
developed country, and needing help and a favor.
Interview & Edit/Xiongbin Post-Production/Zhoutian
