【新唐人2014年03月20日訊】今年2月底，人民幣下跌超過1%，改變了長期以來的升值趨勢。18號，人民幣匯率再度下跌，美元對人民幣即期匯率開盤報6.1858元。雖然專家認為，人民幣的估值已達到了一個長期均衡點，可是人民幣的貶值可能刺破國內的樓市泡沫。
上週末（3月15號），大陸央行將人民幣兌美元匯率日浮動區間擴大到2%。18號，美元對人民幣即期匯率開盤報6.1858，較上一個交易日收盤價6.1781，貶值77個基點。創出近11個月低位。今年人民幣已跌去2.5%。
美國《華爾街日報》認為，中共官員「幾個月來一直在釋放人民幣市場化的信號，央行也在最近幾週主導人民幣下跌，這些都成了人民幣浮動區間擴大的伏筆。」
中國人民銀行2012年4月16號，才將美元/人民幣匯率浮動區間由0.5%，擴大到了1%。
而自2月以來，大陸的資本流動已經大幅度降低。中國繼2月份出口數據表現疲軟之後，又有數據顯示，從工業增加值到固定資產投資，再到零售額都在放緩。
另外，截至去年第三財政季度，中國的外債總規模已達8,230億美元。人民幣走軟將導致清償成本增加，等於外債增多。
中共商務部週二表示，近期人民幣貶值，並不是政府為了支持外貿出口而有意為之。商務部新聞發言人表示，「隨著人民幣匯率形成機制改革的不斷深化，匯率雙向波動將成為常態。」
那麼，央行為甚麼要主導人民幣下跌，目地是甚麼？
大陸金融分析師任中道分析表示，中共當局在權鬥中，藉由「經濟牌」來打擊那批既得利益的權貴們。
大陸金融分析師任中道﹕「之前江澤民，他是以貪腐治國，尤其他形成的中共權貴控制的國企，甚至把全民財富的資源轉移到海外，然後再冒充外資進入中國進行套利，有利率的差和匯率的差，為了狙擊這些權貴們——錢賺夠了要跑，只好把人民幣往低點打，這樣，中間就沒有多的利益可獲取。」
中國交通銀行國際首席策略分析師洪灝，日前在《福布斯》新聞網發表了《人民幣貶值將刺破房地產泡沫》的文章。他表示，一般來說，一個國家可通過廉價的匯率推動出口，以增強外匯儲備。然後，國家可以開始讓貨幣升值，以便進行大規模的資產價值重估。一旦匯率升值到接近平衡點，資產價值重估將會停止。
2005年7月，中國開始進行人民幣升值的匯率改革，當時中國的外匯儲備只有8,000億美元，但現在，這個數字已增長四倍，達到3萬8000億美元。與此同時，中國的房地產價格也已急升到泡沫水平。
洪灝表示，若以史為鑒，人民幣貶值，將會是中國資產價格上漲的強大阻力，這些資產主要是房地產，而股票也將難以倖免。
大陸金融分析師任中道表示，中共權貴一旦掏空那些熱錢外逃，中國房地產泡沫將破裂。
任中道﹕「假設一個老百姓買了一套房100萬，市場這個房子已經不值100萬，但是老百姓還要去還這個房貸，最後老百姓可能把這房子扔給銀行，銀行收到這些房屋的話，它也沒辦法用啊，它也不能變成現金。其實，歸根結底，最後都是老百姓的錢在支撐著整個國家，和金融體系。中共權貴套完利就走了，政府也是，正忙著內鬥，它不會管這些老百姓的死活。」
《華爾街日報》引述「摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)」亞洲外匯及利率策略主管肯德里克(Geoff Kendrick)的話說，隨著今年人民幣兌美元纍計下跌2%，越來越多押注人民幣升值的投資者遭受了損失。
他預測，那些藉助「目標可贖回遠期合約」這一流行方式，對沖人民幣風險的企業及個人的帳面損失，已達23億美元。
而「德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)」駐上海的中國市場主管Beng-Hong Lee說，他的企業客戶正擔心人民幣還會再貶值多少。
報導說，雖然近期人民幣走低的幅度可能還不足以引發資金逃離，但匯率波動加劇可能會讓一些投資者止步不前。
採訪/易如 編輯/周平 後製/李勇
RMB Devaluation vs. Chinese Property Market
At the end of February this year, the
value of the yuan fell by more than 1%.
This changed the long-standing trend of RMB appreciation.
On March 18, the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate fell
again, and traded at 6.1858 to the dollar upon opening.
Experts believe that although RMB value has
reached an equilibrium, this devaluation could
cause the domestic property bubble to burst.
On March 15, China’s Central Bank
doubled the yuan trading band to 2%.
On March 18, the RMB to dollar rate opened at 6.1858.
This is equivalent to depreciation of 77 basis points.
This is compared with the previous
trading day’s closing rate of 6.1781.
It has hit a new low in 11 months.
RMB has fallen 2.5% this year.
The Wall Street Journal commented that, “the
decision, foreshadowed by months of hints by
Chinese officials, followed a week long campaign
by the country’s central bank to weaken the yuan."
The People’s Bank of China had just doubled the
yuan’s trading band to 1% from 0.5% on April 16, 2012.
Since February this year, the Chinese
capital flow has been significantly reduced.
After a weak performance of exports in February,
data also showed a slow down in industrial added
value, fixed asset investment, and retail sales.
In addition, as of the third fiscal quarter of last year,
China’s total foreign debt reached $823 billion.
The weakening of RMB will result
in increased settling up costs.
That is equivalent to an increase in external debt.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Commerce
Department stated on Tuesday that the recent
RMB devaluation was intended to support exports.
A Ministry of Commerce spokesman said that,
“with the mechanism formation of RMB exchange
rate through the deepening of reforms, two-way
exchange rate fluctuations will become the norm."
So, why did the central bank lead the fall of RMB?
Financial analyst Ren Zhongdao says that within power
struggles, the CCP is manipulating the “economic card".
This is to attack the officials with vested interests.
Ren Zhongdao, financial analyst: “Jiang Zemin
had ruled the regime with greed and corruption.
He turned state-owned enterprises into the CCP elite’s
source of wealth, and transferred national wealth overseas.
This returned to China as foreign investment for arbitrage,
to earn the interest difference and the exchange rate.
To combat these officials who escape overseas
with national wealth, the CCP has now brought
the RMB down to cut the interest difference."
Hong Hao, China Bank of Communications
Chief International Strategist, recently
commented in ForbesChina.com.
Hong thinks the RMB devaluation
will burst the real estate bubble.
He stressed that, in general, cheap exchange
rates will help a country to promote exports.
They will strengthen foreign exchange reserves.
Then, large-scale asset revaluation can be
carried out through currency appreciation.
Once the exchange rate is close to the
equilibrium point, asset revaluation will stop.
In July 2005, China started the exchange
rate reform of the RMB appreciation.
At that time, China’s foreign exchange reserve was only
$800 billion, but now has quadrupled to reach $3.8 trillion.
At the same time, China’s real estate
prices have soared to bubble levels.
Hong Hao stated that if one learns from history, devaluation
of RMB will pose strong resistance to elevation of asset
prices. These assets are mainly real estate and stocks.
Financial analyst Ren Zhongdao believes that
once CCP officials empty the hot money and run
overseas, China’s real estate bubble will burst.
Ren Zhongdao: “Suppose someone
bought a property for one million yuan.
The market value is less than one million now.
But this person still has to pay the mortgage.
Finally, this house may be taken back by the bank, which
has no use for the property, and it cannot become cash.
In fact, at the end, the country and the financial
system are supported by people’s hard earned money.
The CCP officials will leave after they get the hot money.
The government is also busy with infighting,
and will not care if the people live or die."
According to WSJ, “with the yuan down 2%
against the dollar this year, more of the bets
are losing money, said Geoff Kendrick, Head
of Asian Currencies and Rates at Morgan Stanley."
“He estimates that paper losses on one popular way
companies hedge their yuan exposure and individual
investors bet on the yuan, through what is known as
target redemption-forward products, have hit $2.3 billion."
“Beng-Hong Lee, Head of Markets for China at Deutsche
Bank AG in Shanghai, says his corporate clients are
concerned about how much more the currency will depreciate."
WSJ added, “while the recent declines likely aren’t big
enough to trigger a stampede out of the yuan, the added
volatility in the exchange rate may give some investors pause."
Interview/Yi Ru Edit/Zhou Ping Post-Production/Li Yong
