【新唐人2014年02月25日訊】2月21號，浙江杭州一售樓處遭業主怒砸，因為這一個樓盤突然降價，導致業主買了這個樓盤成為「負資產」。有報告說，大陸50個城市的樓市「非常危險」。大陸專家指出，種種原因導致今年「錢荒」加劇，因此房屋拋售，樓價暴跌恐怕將大面積蔓延。專家也指出，樓市崩盤將是對中共政權的致命一擊。
近期浙江杭州樓市掀起降價之戰。據大陸媒體報導，在德信北海公園正式對外公布「每平米15,800元」的清盤價後，不到24小時，2月19號下午，附近的樓盤「天鴻香榭裡」火速作出反應，宣佈將剩下的「貨尾」以「起價每平米11,800元，均價每平米13,800元」的價格出售，比原價下跌了3400元。
2月21號下午，一群業主來到售樓處，近百人拉著黑白條幅，與保安和公安對抗。售樓處內被氣憤的業主打砸得一片混亂，樓盤模型倒塌。
另外，在過去一個星期，人民幣兌美元貶值0.8%。中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利認為，這都是說明中國缺錢的信號。而「房價暴跌」的現象，可能是「錢荒」在中國企業當中最先的一個反映，因為房地產往往使用大量資金。而這個現象恐怕將大面積蔓延。
造成中國「錢荒」的原因有幾個方面。鞏勝利表示，首先是人民銀行打算收回人民幣的資金。因為金融海嘯五年多來，央行投放了比美元、歐元、日元更大量的貨幣進去，現在需要收回。
中國金融智庫研究員鞏勝利：「到2013年年底，中國貨幣供應已經超過了110萬億，大概是美元的1.5倍，比歐元，日元都超過了若干倍。中國現在貨幣是一個發行大國，所以中國的經濟現在面臨著兩難的困境。就是投幣也不行，收幣也麻煩。收幣，那房地產就缺錢﹔投幣，中國貨幣量已經是全世界最大量。」
另外一個原因是，中國房地產主要是靠信託公司組成。大量的信託公司到2014年大概有十萬億人民幣的信託資產到期需要還債。這些房地產公司沒有其他資金補充，暴跌就是必然的一種趨勢了。
鞏勝利：「你做房地產，你有錢可能就維持一段時間，你沒有錢當然要拋售了。這是必然的一種選擇。你找到錢能進入，那你可能還能維持長一點。如果我下半年，比如像美元到10月份，850億QE3全部退出，那可能中國的差錢還不止這些。」
那麼中國的房地產泡沫是否將要破裂了呢？鞏勝利認為，這要看中共央行的貨幣投放策略。如果它繼續大量投放貨幣，那可能房地產還要撐一段時間。如果央行貨幣政策開始收緊或者連續收，那麼樓市就岌岌可危。
鞏勝利：「它是兩難。投放也麻煩，因為繼續投放，泡沫會越積越大。那麼它收也麻煩。如果收，中國6月20日和11月20日已經出現過錢荒。它現在也很害怕。如果再出現錢荒，周小川怎麼走的下去？所以他現在處於兩難境地。又想保住繼續往前走。又想貨幣收，所以他是兩難。往前投也不行。不投也不行。兩難的困境。」
1948年11月1號，人民幣正式上市，到現在已經超過65年。鞏勝利指出，今年是人民幣在歷史上最麻煩的一個時期。
不過，鞏勝利估計，中共央行不會讓樓市大面積下跌。因為如果中國房地產泡沫破裂的話，中國經濟的穩定等於是出現了大問題。因此，央行行長周小川將會有限的投放貨幣，像踩著鋼絲，小心翼翼的維繫著樓市慢慢往前走。
山東濟南投資經理 余新永：「 現在房地產已經到這樣一個程度，全世界最貴了，中國老百姓工資又這麼低。你能高到甚麼程度？對不起，他會一路高下去的。房地產泡沫破裂之時，就是他們（中共）的壽終正寢之日。」
鞏勝利估計，中國的房地產泡沫恐怕只能再維持兩年。他預計，在2016-2017年之間，隨著房市泡沫破裂，中國經濟將會崩潰，而以發展經濟作為唯一統治合法性的中共政權也會隨之崩潰。
烏克蘭最近的變天彷彿是一個預演。
採訪編輯/秦雪 後製/李勇
China’s Property Price Slump Might Become More Widespread
On Feb. 21 property owners angrily destroyed an estate agents office of one particular developer, because the selling property project suddenly reduced
the selling price,which causes the existing owners to hold “negative assets".
It is reported there are around 50 cities in Mainland China with a “very perilous" property market situation.Mainland experts pointed out, many factors aggravate this year’s “Coin Famines",which triggers the sale of properties and the slump of property prices, creating an epidemic in a much wider area.
Experts also state, the property collapse will have major
repercussions in the near future, which might then lead to bankruptcy of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its members.
Recently, the property market in Hangzhou city of Zhejiang Province launched a price-cutting battle.It is reported that after Dexin Northsea Park real estate project, declared to sell all its properties at low prices,of which were sold for 15,800 yuan per square meter. Then within 24 hours of the afternoon of February 19,a surrounding real estate project “Tianhong Sharm” rapidly
responded to it,declaring selling off the remaining properties at a price of 11,800 yuan per square meter,making this an average of 13,800 yuan per square meter,with a reduction of 3400 yuan per square meter.
Then in the afternoon of Feb. 21, a group of existing property owners came to the estate agentsoffice, with almost a hundred people holding black and white banners and being confrontational to the guardians and the police.
The estate agents office was smashed amidst the chaos by the angry property owners,with the building being brought down to the ground.
In addition during the past week, Renminbi has depreciated by 0.8% for the exchange rate with US dollars.Gong Shengli, a researcher of China’s financial think tank,says this is a signal of a money shortage in China.
The phenomenon of “dramatically reduced property prices,"might be the first chain response of the “Coin Famines"amongst Chinese enterprises, considering the property industry is on high demand of large amounts of funds.
Such a phenomenon might be epidemic to a massive area across China.
There are several factors producing Chinese “Coin Famines".Gong Shengli says.
The first being the Central Bank is going to recycle RMB (Chinese currency).
Because during the past five years after financial crisis,Central Bank released more currency into the market than US dollar, Euros, and Japanese Yen,
and it is time to recycle them.
Gong Shengli: “Till the end of 2013, China’s currency supply has exceeded 110 trillion RMB,which is 1.5 times more than US dollars and several times
more of Euros and Japanese Yen.China is now a country with a massive scale
of circulating currency.So China’s economy is facing a dilemma,which is not good for increasing currency supplies as well as troublesome for recirculating money.
Once the recycling of currency begins, then the property industry becomes in short supply of money, it stagnates. For the option of supplying more currency,
China has the largest currency scale in the world."
Another factor is that China’s property is mainly funded by trust companies.
Around 10 trillion RMB trust assets of a large number of trust companies, will be due to repay their debts.If these property companies have no other funds to support themselves,then the slump of property prices is an inevitable trend.
Gong Shengli: “For property developers, if they have enough funds,then the business can maintain itself for a period of time.If they have no funds then they have to sell off the properties.This is an inevitable outcome.
If they can find funds, then they can sustain themselves for a longer period of time.For example, if the US Feds stop their stimulus program from buying US$ 85 billion each month in October.To China, it amounts to more than this."
So will China’s property bubble burst? Gong Shengli says,this depends upon the currency supply strategies of the CCP’s Central Bank.If they continue to increase currency supply,then the property industry could sustain for a period.
But if the currency policy starts to recycle or continue to recycle,
then the property market will seriously be in peril.
Gong Shengli: “There’s a dilemma. The supply will be in trouble,because this will have an expanding effect on the bubble.But to recycle will also bring its own troubles.Due to the Coin Famines which occurred in China on June 20 and November 20 of last year.So the CCP is very fearful. If the Coin Famines happen again,how can Zhou Xiaochuan, head of CCP’s Central Bank move forward? He is surely in a dilemma.He wants to keep the current status and go ahead.
But he also wants to recycle the currency.He is in a deadlock of a position."
On Nov. 1 1948, RMB was officially circulated and this has lasted for more than 65 years.Gong Shengli points out, this year will be the most troublesome of periods in the history of RMB.
However, according to Gong Shengli’s estimation,the CCP’s Central Bank will not allow a dramatic fall of the property price in a massive area.Because if the property bubbles burst,then the stability of China’s economy will be unstable.
Zhou Xiaochuan will release limited currency,which is like treading on steel strings,guiding the property market forward
in a slow and very delicate way.
Jinan investment manager of Shandong Province Yu Xinyong:"The property market has become such a status withthe most expensive price in the world.The income of Chinese ordinary people is so low.So how can the property price be sustained at a higher level? Never mind, the price will go up and up. Eventually, the property bubble will burst one day and the day will be a doomsday for the CCP."
Gong Shengli estimated, China’s property bubble might only sustain another two years.He forecast, between 2016 and 2017, then the property bubble
will burst and China’s economy will collapse.The CCP regime which regards the economic achievements as its only one source of legitimate governance This will inevitably face collapse.
The collapse of the totalitarian regime in the Ukraine in recent days, seems much like a rehearsal for China.
Interview & Edit/Qinxue Post-Production/LiYong
