【新唐人2012年11月14日訊】中共總書記胡錦濤「十八大」後，是否會繼續保留「中央軍委主席」一職，是正在舉行的「十八大」一大看點。12號，香港《南華早報》引述不具名的消息來源說，胡錦濤「將不再留任中央軍委主席」。分析認為，就中共目前的形勢來看，胡錦濤不管是自願還是無奈，卻有兩個關鍵原因，可能繼續「留任」軍委主席。
中央軍委主席與總書記和國家主席三合一——由同一個人擔任，是中共政壇上最有權力的職務。
據了解，「十八大」派系之間的談判，將在14號達到高潮，屆時，將選出200多名中央委員會委員。而15號舉行的「18屆一中全會」，則由新一屆的中央委員會委員開會任命新的政治局委員和新的常委，還將選出新的中央紀律檢查委員會——一個反腐敗的內部機構的委員，以及中央軍委。
在此關鍵時刻，香港《南華早報》引述不具名的消息來源報導說，中共「十八大」結束後，現任三合一職務的胡錦濤也將「卸任中央軍委主席」一職，接班人——習近平在接任中共總書記的同時，將接任軍委主席。
獨立評論員韓武雖然認為胡錦濤不會留任，但卻表示﹕這個報導是一種試探，沒有實質性的意義。
獨立評論員韓武：「他報的意圖主要是想看，一個是國內太子黨這一派的人、江派的人看有甚麼動向，第二想看看西方世界——海外的媒體會有甚麼反應，這一切都沒有甚麼實際意義，就是說，中國的政治非常的黑暗，外界憑它的表象上想來分清楚，是不容易猜清楚的。」
美國「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士、時政評論家李天笑認為，這可能是江派為試探各界對胡錦濤留任的態度所放的風。李天笑認為，王立軍和薄熙來事件導致江派人馬失勢，使一度受江系人馬箝制的胡錦濤，終於走出「政令不出中南海」的困局，胡錦濤歷經十年的壓制，才剛剛掌控軍隊，在這關鍵時刻，李天笑說，胡錦濤不會輕易放棄。
美「哥倫比亞大學」政治學博士李天笑：「為甚麼不能輕易放掉，最關鍵的原因就是清算、反清算這麼一個關鍵問題，如果說他輕易把軍權放掉的話，很可能薄熙來和江派利用他們的軍隊勢力，反撲過來，這個對他是不利的，是個生死攸關的問題。」
同時，李天笑還分析，胡錦濤留任中央軍委主席還有另一個原因。
李天笑：「可以幫習近平在軍隊上面能撐一把，因為習近平畢竟還比較嫩，將來習近平執政之後，如果要進一步清理江家幫的話，很可能就需要有軍權，胡錦濤現在在軍隊的人脈呀，基本上已經很深入了，那麼在這一方面，我覺得他能起很重要的作用。」
就在香港《南華早報》報導「胡錦濤將不再留任中央軍委主席」的同一天，還刊登特別報導，其中提到﹕「習近平可能在接任中共總書記之後，繼續等待兩年，才能掌控解放軍這一世界上最大的軍隊。」
早在「十八大」召開的幾個月前，高層派系之間的博弈就已經進入白熱化，而被外界猜測的熱點之一，就是胡錦濤是否會繼續留任中央軍委主席。
軍事專家、《漢和防務評論》雜誌總編輯平可夫認為，胡錦濤很可能會繼續留任。
今年9月，曾擔任香港特首的中共全國政協副主席董建華，在接受美國有線新聞網(CNN)訪問時暗示，現任中國最高領導胡錦濤不會「裸退」。
董建華相信胡錦濤可能繼續擔任中央軍委會主席一段時間。他還強調，並沒有獲得任何消息，只是根據過往做法，所以，胡錦濤會保持這個職位一段時間。
採訪編輯/常春 後製/薛莉
Will Hu Remain as Central Military Commission Chairman?
Whether Chinese Communist Party(CCP) general secretary,
Hu Jintao, will remain as Central Military Commission (CMC)
chairman is a hot topic alongside the 18th National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting.
On November 12, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post
quoted unnamed sources saying that,
Hu Jintao “will not remain as the Central Military
Commission Chairman”.
Analyses on the CCP’s current situation shows that,
willingly or not, Hu Jintao has two key reasons to continue
his role as the chairman of the CMC.
In China, one person simultaneously adopts the roles of
CMC chairman, general secretary and state president—
the most powerful positions within the CCP.
It is understood that negotiations between different factions
of the 18th NPC will reach their peak on November 14;
over 200 Central Committee members will be appointed.
The first Plenary of the 18th NPC will be on November 15,
held by the new session of the Central Committee.
They will appoint new members of the Political Bureau,
the Standing Committee, the Central Commission for
Discipline Inspection—internal anti-corruption institution—
and the Central Military Commission.
At this critical moment, South China Morning Post quoted
unnamed sources, reporting that after the 18th NPC,
the current 3-in-1 officer, Hu Jintao,
will also resign from his post as CMC chairman.
Successor Xi Jinping is said to take the positions of
CCP General Secretary and the CMC chairman.
Although independent commentator Han Wu believes
Hu Jintao will not remain in office,
he says the news report is just a kind of 『probing』
without any substantive significance.
[Han Wu]: “The report is trying to probe a response from
the faction of domestic princelings and the Jiang Zemin faction,
as well as from the western world and overseas media.
It has little practical significance—that is to say,
China’s politics is very dark;
the outside world cannot distinguish it
very clearly from its appearance."
Columbia University’s Ph.D. graduate in Political science,
Li Tianxiao, believes that it could be a tentative message released by Jiang’s faction,
to probe the attitudes towards Hu retaining
his role as chairman of the CMC.
Li says that in the Wang Lijun and Bo Xilai cases,
Jiang’s faction had lost its ground.
Hu Jintao, who had been clamped by Jiang’s faction
and unable to make any political decisions that would be
effective outside of Zhongnanhai, finally got out of this catch.
After 10 years of repression, Hu has only now started to
have control over the military.
Li Tianxiao says, at this crucial moment,
Hu will not give up this position easily.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao, Political Scientist]:
“Why can’t Hu let go easily?
The most important reason is liquidation and anti-liquidation
—such a key issue.
If he let go of military power easily, it’s likely that Bo Xilai
and Jiang’s faction will counterattack with their military force,
which is unfavorable to Hu—it’s a 『life and death』 issue.”
Li Tianxiao says there’s another reason for Hu Jintao to
remain as CMC chairman.
[Dr. Li Tianxiao]: “Hu can help Xi Jinping in the military—
after all, Xi has weak military foundations—
when Xi takes power and tries to liquidate Jiang’s faction
further, he may need military power.
Basically, Hu’s military contacts have now become very
in-depth; so in this way, he can play a very important role."
South China Morning Post reported that Hu will no longer
remain as CMC chairman.
On the same day, it reported: “After Xi Jinping takes over
as CCP General Secretary,
he may still need to wait another two years to control
the world’s largest army—the People’s Liberation Army."
A few months ago, infighting between CCP senior factions
had been heating up;
one of the hot spots was over whether Hu Jintao
will continue to serve as CMC chairman.
Ping Kefu, military expert and editor-in-chief of Han Defense
Review magazine says, Hu is very likely to continue in office.
In September this year, Tung Chee-hwa, who has served as
vice-chairman of the National Committee of the CCP’s
Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC)
and as Hong Kong’s chief executive, took a media interview.
The U.S. Cable News Network(CNN) who took the interview
reported that Hu Jintao will not resign from all positions.
Tung believes Hu Jintao is likely to continue serving as
CMC chairman for some time.
Tung also emphasizes that he has not obtained any solid
information; his views are speculations based on history.
