【新唐人2011年10月24日訊】今年以來，美國和歐洲經濟不景氣，引發了各國對世界經濟「二次衰退」的擔憂。而在中國，企業主因還不起貸款逃亡的現象頻繁出現，資金鏈斷裂幾乎蔓延所有行業，房地產已成爲「地雷」。經濟分析人士認爲，這是中國經濟崩潰的不祥之兆。
日前，世界上兩位知名的經濟評論人士魯裡埃爾•魯比尼和吉姆•夏諾斯，都對中國的經濟前景表示悲觀，他們聲稱，經濟硬著陸已經無法避免。
英國《金融時報》表示，在過去兩三個月裡，投資者們對中國的經濟，籠罩在一股極度悲觀的情緒中，中國的經濟危機凸顯。
報導說，中國大陸目前從房地產到製造業，幾乎所有行業都在經歷資金鏈斷裂的痛苦。無論是政府的融資平臺還是官方的投資公司，無論是銀行還是上市公司，無論是國企還是私企，無論是鐵路投資還是其他產業的擴張，無論是溫州還是鄂爾多斯……都面臨著資金鏈斷裂的風險。
在被視為中國經濟風向標的溫州，僅八月和九月間就發生了40起企業主逃亡的案子，原因在於無法償還地下錢莊的貸款。數據顯示，溫州民間借貸市場規模將近1100億元，比去年同期增長近40%。
美國南卡羅萊納大學教授謝田認爲，由於民營的中小企業向來受國有銀行的歧視，中共銀根緊縮的政策對他們的影響很大。
謝田：「他沒有資金周轉的時候，最近世界經濟比較差，中國出口受挫，這些小企業生存越來越危機的時候，從國有銀行得不到錢，他們只能從地下錢莊去要錢。而更多的企業陷入這種境況的時候呢，就會把利率越推越高，那些人明知道這個是不可能還得了的，他還要鋌而走險去借個高利貸，就説明中國的經濟狀況和金融狀況都處在一個很危機的情況。」
德國《世界報》認爲，現在的中國，不僅地下錢莊面臨資金鏈斷裂的危機，國有商業銀行和股份制銀行同樣在劫難逃，特別是面臨巨額的壞賬威脅。地方債務按中共當局的說法有10.7萬億元，其中40%今年到期。很多地方政府根本沒有償還能力，這將導致銀行再一次出現巨額不良資產。
另外，與資金鏈斷裂並駕齊驅的風險是房地產。中國城市商業銀行資金清算中心理事長王世豪在9月份坦言，房地產20萬億元的貸款，已成為中國銀行業的一顆「地雷」。
王世豪說，銀行目前貸款總量是55萬億元，房地產行業的貸款已經佔到銀行貸款總量的36%，開發商必須要到別的地方去拿錢，低廉資金時代已經結束。
有數據顯示，中國大陸70座城市中有16座城市的新房價格8月份比7月份下降。雖然銀行方面聲稱可以承受房價下跌四成，但滬寧的退房潮仍顯示有越來越多的人看淡市場，通過在房地產市場套現填補其他資金缺口。
謝田教授認爲，現在開發商手中握有大量房產滯銷難以變現，商品房已經嚴重供過於求，鄂爾多斯的「鬼城」現象層出不窮。房地產商的資金鏈開始緊張，還貸壓力越來越大。
謝田：「現在這個資金鏈斷裂的事情已經迫在眉睫了。一旦由地下錢莊引起的，和國有銀行私下拿錢去放貸，這些問題集中爆發的時候，就會把連帶的房地產市場的問題就一起爆發出來。這樣的話，中國的整個金融體系泡沫就會破滅。」
同時，資金短缺的危機還波及到了政府投資的重大項目。《第一財經日報》報導，全國鐵路建設由於資金問題，拖欠工人工資引發工人不滿，建設單位、供應商難為無米之炊。全國範圍內停工的鐵路項目里程在1萬公里以上。
中鐵隧道集團副總工程師王夢恕日前坦言：「從東北到西南，從西北到東南，大部分鐵路項目都停了。」
《德國金融時報》表示，北京對貸款的供應和價格已缺乏掌控，因為地下銀行提供給經濟界的資金總和已超過了官方銀行。中國目前不僅沒有能力挽救歐洲，而且能否保持自己的航向也成問題。
新唐人記者常春、李明飛、葛雷採訪報導。
China』s Economy Is Facing a Major Crisis
With the recent economic downturn in the U.S. and Europe,
everyone is worried that the global economy will slip back into a recession.
In China, many entrepreneurs have just 『walked away,』
after defaulting on their loans, causing a chain-reaction all across China.
Real estate has become a veritable “landmine”.
Analysts see this as an ominous sign that the Chinese economy
is close to collapse.
Two world famous economic commentators,
Nouriel Roubini and Jim Chanos,
have adopted a pessimistic stance on the Chinese economy,
saying it is in for a hard landing.
According to The Financial Times, in the past 2 to 3 months,
investors are in a rather gloomy mood over the Chinese economy, as they watch a crisis emerging.
Reports indicate that from real estate to manufacturing,
almost all areas in mainland China are suffering from
a loan-default chain reaction, including banks,
government』s financing schemes, investment companies and joint-stock banks.
Whether its state-owned or private, whether its a rail investment
or an expansion of some other industry,
whether it is located in Wenzhou or Ordos…
all are facing the risk of this chain reaction.
Wenzhou city is said to be the weathervane of
China』s economy.
But in August and September alone, more than 40 cases
were reported of entrepreneurs 『skipping town』 after being unable to repay their loans.
Statistics show that the size of Wenzhou』s private lending market,
which is nearly RMB 11 billion (US$1.72 billion), increased nearly 40 percent over the same period, last year.
Professor Xie Tian of the University of South Carolina,
believes that as China tightens its monetary policy,
small and medium private enterprises
will be impacted the most.
Xie Tian: “When they are tight on cash flow.
China』s exports are down, due to a downturn in the global economy,
thus, business owners are unable to get loans from
state-owned banks.
Therefore, they have to borrow money from
private lending companies.
As more and more businesses do this, loan rates will rise.
Even though these business owners know that
they won』t be able to repay their loans,
they nevertheless take the risk and
borrow money from these loan-sharking companies.
It shows that the Chinese economy is
in seriosus financisal danger.”
German Welt thinks that not only is the private lending
market in China facing a capital chain reaction,
but also state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock banks,
especially when they』re saddled with many bad loans.
According to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP),
local goverenment debt is averaging about RMB 1.07 billion,
or (US$167.62 million), 40% of which is due this year.
Many local governments are unable to repay their debt,
which is leading to huge loan defaults.
Alongside the capital chain reaction, is the real estate market,
which is another risky side of the economy.
China’s central commercial bank clearing center director,
Wang Shihao, admitted in September that RMB 20 trillion
(US$3.13 trillion) in outsatnding real estate loans,
has been a “landmine” to the Chinese banking industry.
Wang said, “The total amount of outstanding bank loans
is RMB 55 trillion (US$8.61 trillion), 36% of which is real estate.
Developers must get their money from somewhere else,
thus, the low-interest loans era has ended.
Statistics show that in 16 of 70 mainland cities,
the price of new apartments in August is lower than in July.
Although banks claim that they can bear with real estate prices
falling around 40%,
the trend of people back off their property purchases
in Shanghai and Nanjing, shows that more and more people see the real estate market as bearish.
People are taking their money out of real estate
to fill the capital hole they have in other investments.
Professor Xie Tian now thinks that real estate developers
have a lot of apartments that they are finding hard to sell.
In other words, the supply is larger than the demand.
Empty communities can be seen in many places.
Real estate developers』 cash flow is not very good,
and the pressure they feel in repaying their loans is growing.
Xie Tian: “The capital chain reaction is right around the corner.
Once it』s triggered in the private lending sector
and among state-owned banks, the real estate market will be affected.
When this happens, China』s financial bubble will pop.”
Meanwhile, a shortage of cash is affecting
big government projects.
First Financial Daily reported that railway construction workers
aren』t being paid on time, because these companies are short on cash.
There are currently over 10,000 KM (6,213 miles)
of suspended railway projects in the country.
Deputy chief engineer of China Railway Tunnel Group,
Wang Mengshu, has admitted: “From the northeast
to the southwest, from the northwest to the southeast,
most of the current railway projects have stopped."
The Financial Times Deutschland says, “The CCP has lost control
of the issuance of debt and the interest rate on loans,
due to underground lending institutes which provide
more loans than banks.
Not only does the CCP lack the ability to save Europe,
it itself is struggling with its own financial problems and development.
NTD reporters Chang Chun, Li Mingfei and Ge Lei
